2ndCitySox

David Dahl 2017 Outlook

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On 1/5/2017 at 0:48 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

Right but the theory from the fangraphs article was that Desmond would play OF if the Rox acquire a decent 1B. 

I still think it's more likely they trade an OF, and slide Desmond into that spot.

 

It's really suprising Cargo has never been dealt despite all the trade rumours and now Blackmon too. Maybe teams just think less of Rockies hitters because their numbers are Coors aided and most are much better at home?

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Saw this on CBS:

 

by RotoWire Staff | Special to CBSSports.com
(16 hrs ago) Dahl will compete with Gerardo Parra for the starting job in left field, MLB.com reports.

As a 22-year-old last season, Dahl broke through to the major league level and enjoyed a great deal of success, slashing .315/.359/.500 in 237 plate appearances. However, he has not rested on his laurels -- Dahl worked to add strength and refine his batting eye this offseason. Dahl said recently that he's up to 198 pounds after finishing the 2016 campaign at about 180 pounds. Parra is under contract for at least two more years but the organization has a lot invested in Dahl as well, and the numbers suggest Dahl has a clear edge in terms of skills at this stage. Dahl posted a 88.02 mph average exit velocity on 135 batted balls last season, according to Statcast, better than any qualified hitter.

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30 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Saw this on CBS:

 

by RotoWire Staff | Special to CBSSports.com
(16 hrs ago) Dahl will compete with Gerardo Parra for the starting job in left field, MLB.com reports.

As a 22-year-old last season, Dahl broke through to the major league level and enjoyed a great deal of success, slashing .315/.359/.500 in 237 plate appearances. However, he has not rested on his laurels -- Dahl worked to add strength and refine his batting eye this offseason. Dahl said recently that he's up to 198 pounds after finishing the 2016 campaign at about 180 pounds. Parra is under contract for at least two more years but the organization has a lot invested in Dahl as well, and the numbers suggest Dahl has a clear edge in terms of skills at this stage. Dahl posted a 88.02 mph average exit velocity on 135 batted balls last season, according to Statcast, better than any qualified hitter.

 

My lord.  Dude must have been hitting the Denver dispensaries and munching out!

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38 minutes ago, aifan27 said:

 

My lord.  Dude must have been hitting the Denver dispensaries and munching out!

 

Or hit the weights, ate right, and started a cycle ;)

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On 2/1/2017 at 4:06 PM, Members_Only_76 said:

Saw this on CBS:

 

by RotoWire Staff | Special to CBSSports.com
(16 hrs ago) Dahl will compete with Gerardo Parra for the starting job in left field, MLB.com reports.

As a 22-year-old last season, Dahl broke through to the major league level and enjoyed a great deal of success, slashing .315/.359/.500 in 237 plate appearances. However, he has not rested on his laurels -- Dahl worked to add strength and refine his batting eye this offseason. Dahl said recently that he's up to 198 pounds after finishing the 2016 campaign at about 180 pounds. Parra is under contract for at least two more years but the organization has a lot invested in Dahl as well, and the numbers suggest Dahl has a clear edge in terms of skills at this stage. Dahl posted a 88.02 mph average exit velocity on 135 batted balls last season, according to Statcast, better than any qualified hitter.

 

On their team?

 

It will be ludicrous if he's in some sort of time share with Parra. The fact they are both lefties though I can't see a situation where Parra outhits Dahl and takes the starting job- Parra was awful last season. I hope and think it's just something to motivate Dahl and make him realise his place in the lineup isn't guaranteed yet. 

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10 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

 

On their team?

 

It will be ludicrous if he's in some sort of time share with Parra. The fact they are both lefties though I can't see a situation where Parra outhits Dahl and takes the starting job- Parra was awful last season. I hope and think it's just something to motivate Dahl and make him realise his place in the lineup isn't guaranteed yet. 

 

it sounds like parra had some sort of ankle injury bothering him for most of last season, which makes sense, considering that there's no reason in parra's history for him to be quite as bad as he was, in colorado of all places.

 

i still think dahl should start over him, of course. but i do think parra will be better than he was last season if given a chance to play.

 

really would have made more sense for the rockies to trade an outfielder and play both, or not sign desmond, or... almost anything else besides what they've done. i don't know, maybe there's a long game to move desmond somewhere

 

 

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Time share, bad extrapolation (-20 HR-15 sb), inflated babip (if he hits 310 with 404 babip imagine whag it's gonna be with a 320 babip), low lineup position.  Arrow: down 

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4 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Time share, bad extrapolation (-20 HR-15 sb), inflated babip (if he hits 310 with 404 babip imagine whag it's gonna be with a 320 babip), low lineup position.  Arrow: down 

exactly...I'm not going to pick him over a 4 or 5 hole hitter just because this guy may play 60 games at Coors this year

 

not worth it

 

if anything I'm keeping eye on Tapia if the Rockies move Blackmon or Cargo

 

and that will cost me nothing

Edited by XxxOilOverloadxxX

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7 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

exactly...I'm not going to pick him over a 4 or 5 hole hitter just because this guy may play 60 games at Coors this year

 

not worth it

 

if anything I'm keeping eye on Tapia if the Rockies move Blackmon or Cargo

 

and that will cost me nothing

Yup. Can't argue with the logic. It's really unfortunate because the upside with Dahl is there. Even he ended up going 15/10 with a solid BA/OBP, that could have been fine where I've seen him go in drafts. But if there is someone who is in a better situation you gotta take him.

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7 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Yup. Can't argue with the logic. It's really unfortunate because the upside with Dahl is there. Even he ended up going 15/10 with a solid BA/OBP, that could have been fine where I've seen him go in drafts. But if there is someone who is in a better situation you gotta take him.

 

Love this guy in keepers where you have him cheap.  Dahl and Urias both are gonna be my albatross' this year.  See you guys in 2018... ; )

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39 minutes ago, ragrag said:

 

Love this guy in keepers where you have him cheap.  Dahl and Urias both are gonna be my albatross' this year.  See you guys in 2018... ; )

Got him in my dynasty. I hope he kills it this year. So much upside with speed and power.

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I'm in the same boat as the two above where I have in a dynasty league and have my eyes set on the future as well as this year. I think Dahl will get a lot of playing time this year, I think he's one of the Rockies top 3 OFs and deserves a spot over Parra. With the Rockies looking to contend, I think they will recognize this and play their best lineups more often than not. .275/.330 with 15 HRs and 15 SBs seems like a good baseline with upside for more. I currently have him projected for .284/.331, 68 Runs, 17 HRs, 81 RBIs, and 18 SBs this season. The Rockies should have a dominant lineup, and with him likely hitting down in the order, I see him driving in a bunch of guys. That's not great value for his current ADP but won't cost you your league. You're buying Dahl for the upside

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54 minutes ago, Wild Thing said:

I feel like this time next season, Dahl will be a top 20 player. Power and speed in Coors. 

18 HR 12 steals 250 BA.  That sounds like top...250

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27 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

18 HR 12 steals 250 BA.  That sounds like top...250

 

You're discounting him too much. The guy is a natural talent that crushes the ball (as stated above, his exit velocity was great last year), and he will continue to play half of his games at Coors Field, the land of high BABIPs.  No, he's not going to have a .400 BABIP again, and he probably won't hit .300, but he's not going to hit .250 either.  

Per Razzball: " Has any non-catcher Rockies player hit below .250 since 2005?  Well, I’m glad I asked!  Clint Barmes (twice), Ian Stewart (once), Ty Wigginton (once), Todd Helton (twice, at ages 38/39), that’s it.  Four Rockies had six non-catcher seasons of .250 and below.  Know why?  Of Coors you do!  You can’t hit under .250 in Coors. "

This guy is a big part of their future.  He has shown he can hit and if he continues to do so Parra shouldn't be a major threat to his playing time - I hope.

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I think all projections of any player should be reasonable ceiling and reasonable floor. I'd say Dahl with full time gig at coors batting 7th/8th in that lineup is 75/ 22/85/20 .285 avg type player.  I like him a lot.  But I also think that's his reasonable ceiling.  Without a full time spot batting 8th it could get ugly to the tune of 50/8/55/10 .265 that's floor.   Wide range of possible outcome.  If you can snag this guy late he's worth the gamble for sure,  but I wouldn't be reaching for him.

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7 minutes ago, Baseball Or Bust said:

I think all projections of any player should be reasonable ceiling and reasonable floor. I'd say Dahl with full time gig at coors batting 7th/8th in that lineup is 75/ 22/85/20 .285 avg type player.  I like him a lot.  But I also think that's his reasonable ceiling.  Without a full time spot batting 8th it could get ugly to the tune of 50/8/55/10 .265 that's floor.   Wide range of possible outcome.  If you can snag this guy late he's worth the gamble for sure,  but I wouldn't be reaching for him.

Agreed, I have him for $1 in a keeper league, but if it were a re-draft and I had to reach above his ADP, I'd probably be a little scared because of the Rockies' overcrowded outfield.

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26 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

Even if 270 18 12 how is that too 20

 

Clearly he thinks he's going to do considerably better than 18/12. To be top 20, he probably needs 25/25-ish production. The upside is there without question to do that if things break right. 18/12 doesn't get you top 20 consideration as an OF.

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1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

18 HR 12 steals 250 BA.  That sounds like top...250

 

Serious discounted stats. That's his floor. Maybe not even. When was the last time a Colorado non catcher hit less than .250???

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50 minutes ago, RTW10 said:

Agreed, I have him for $1 in a keeper league, but if it were a re-draft and I had to reach above his ADP, I'd probably be a little scared because of the Rockies' overcrowded outfield.

 

You guys. There is virtually no way Parra is beating out Dahl. Short of his completely collapsing. And I don't think that's happening.

 

this year I think Dahl is a .270 20/20 player with the arrow pointed straight up.

Edited by Wild Thing

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22 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

Clearly he thinks he's going to do considerably better than 18/12. To be top 20, he probably needs 25/25-ish production. The upside is there without question to do that if things break right. 18/12 doesn't get you top 20 consideration as an OF.

 

Yeah I said this time next year he will be a top 20 player. This has a very mookie betts feel to it.

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10 minutes ago, Wild Thing said:

 

Yeah I said this time next year he will be a top 20 player. This has a very mookie betts feel to it.

 

I followed Mookie Betts from his very early minors and predicted he was going to be great, and I can tell you Dahl is no Mookie.  The main reason is that Dahl simply doesn't have the ELITE command of the strike zone that Mookie has.  His average has been solid in the minors, but his K-rate has been 'ok' and his walk rate, although improving, has not been elite either.  His BB/K for his minor league career is .33 (nothing special).  Now he was a .310 lifetime minor league hitter, but that in large part is because his short stint at Albuquerque he literally hit almost .500 (!) and for some reason he played a full season in Rookie ball, tearing it up the entire time.  Now, I don't want to take away from him:  if Albuquerque inflates his stats, then so will Coors and for fantasy purposes, so be it!  I'd be happy to have him.  But my bottom line is he's no Mookie Betts.  

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2 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

I followed Mookie Betts from his very early minors and predicted he was going to be great, and I can tell you Dahl is no Mookie.  The main reason is that Dahl simply doesn't have the ELITE command of the strike zone that Mookie has.  His average has been solid in the minors, but his K-rate has been 'ok' and his walk rate, although improving, has not been elite either.  His BB/K for his minor league career is .33 (nothing special).  Now he was a .310 lifetime minor league hitter, but that in large part is because his short stint at Albuquerque he literally hit almost .500 (!) and for some reason he played a full season in Rookie ball, tearing it up the entire time.  Now, I don't want to take away from him:  if Albuquerque inflates his stats, then so will Coors and for fantasy purposes, so be it!  I'd be happy to have him.  But my bottom line is he's no Mookie Betts.  

 

Sorry didn't mean his comp was Mookie more that Mookie has a fast ascension into the top 20. I could see Dahl having a similar rise, not that they are similar players. 

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