2ndCitySox

David Dahl 2017 Outlook

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13 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

It's pretty funny how people think Mark Reynolds, easily the team's third best hitter behind Blackmon and Arenado, will suddenly be pushed to a platoon or bench or w/e for a guy who hasn't even seen the field all season.

I mean, I'm sure many of you can use Dahl on your fantasy teams. But rose colored glasses like that aren't the answer.

 

I'm pretty positive Mark Reynolds has proven what type of hitter he is.  They know what they got with him and if Tapia/Dahl are showing promise with their AB's then they will continue to get more of them.  That will very likely be more to the detriment of Reynolds then anyone else.

 

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Mark Reynolds hits almost 80 points out of altitude 

 

I would say at least Dahl, Tapia, and Desmond would play better on the road

 

but that's just my opinion I own none of these players

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You aren't going to sit a .900 ops veteran slugging the **** out of the ball, in the midst of making first playoff birth in years, to give at bats to some dude who had a nice 200 at bat run on a 100 loss team that no veteran remembers last season.  Not. Going. To. Happen.  Be realistic and objective.

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18 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

You aren't going to sit a .900 ops veteran slugging the **** out of the ball, in the midst of making first playoff birth in years, to give at bats to some dude who had a nice 200 at bat run on a 100 loss team that no veteran remembers last season.  Not. Going. To. Happen.  Be realistic and objective.

 

 

You do know that he is batting .217 with two homers over the past month?  .179 past 11 games, with 1 RBI.   Unless he starts hitting again, he will be sitting plenty.   Reynolds basically had a nice 200 at bat run this year,

 

Rockies want to win, so they will play their best players.   Yeah, be objective

Edited by rich22

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22 minutes ago, rich22 said:

 

 

You do know that he is batting .217 with two homers over the past month?  .179 past 11 games, with 1 RBI.   Unless he starts hitting again, he will be sitting plenty.   Reynolds basically had a nice 200 at bat run this year,

 

Rockies want to win, so they will play their best players.   Yeah, be objective

Okay so if that's the case they'll put Desmond at first.  Blackmon in CF and Tapia and Parra in corner OF spots.  Oh and Dahl, Cargo and Reynolds ride pine in that scenario.  So do the the math.  Too many bodies for 2017.  Any guy not named Blackmon and likely Desmond, is going to see any avenue to consistent at bats.

Edited by Cmilne23

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Reynolds is slashing .285/.375/.515. .Like I said, easily their third best hitter.

Over the last month he's .255/.381/.415, which is still better than Desmond during any stretch and obviously they're all better than Dahl, who hasn't even seen the field. To think either of those guys will come back and put Reynolds in a platoon or on the bench is very wishful.

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2 hours ago, Fiveohnine said:

Reynolds is slashing .285/.375/.515. .Like I said, easily their third best hitter.

Over the last month he's .255/.381/.415, which is still better than Desmond during any stretch and obviously they're all better than Dahl, who hasn't even seen the field. To think either of those guys will come back and put Reynolds in a platoon or on the bench is very wishful.

 

The party seemingly ended w/ Reynolds abt 25 games ago.  He's been a regression candidate from the beginning and to expect him to play over his head for an entire season is very wishful, IMO.

 

I think Desmond and Dahl are better players than Reynolds and that skill will win out in the end.  I agree that they won't be displace Reynolds just because they're both healthy, they'll have to earn it.  I just believe they're better and will earn it.  If Reynolds doesn't start hitting it'll just make taking the job that much easier.

 

PS: Dahl starting to produce in rehab.  Wouldn't be surprised if Desmond comes out of the break on a tear either.

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30 minutes ago, ragrag said:

 

The party seemingly ended w/ Reynolds abt 25 games ago.  He's been a regression candidate from the beginning and to expect him to play over his head for an entire season is very wishful, IMO.

 

I think Desmond and Dahl are better players than Reynolds and that skill will win out in the end.  I agree that they won't be displace Reynolds just because they're both healthy, they'll have to earn it.  I just believe they're better and will earn it.  If Reynolds doesn't start hitting it'll just make taking the job that much easier.

 

PS: Dahl starting to produce in rehab.  Wouldn't be surprised if Desmond comes out of the break on a tear either.

 

 

COMPLETELY agree.  I could not have worded it better myself.   

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3 hours ago, Fiveohnine said:

Reynolds is slashing .285/.375/.515. .Like I said, easily their third best hitter.

Over the last month he's .255/.381/.415, which is still better than Desmond during any stretch and obviously they're all better than Dahl, who hasn't even seen the field. To think either of those guys will come back and put Reynolds in a platoon or on the bench is very likely

 

 

Wrong.     Past month (since June 14)  he is  .225/.354/.325.    Going back to June 12 he is .209/.353/.302.

 

How are you computing your stats?    I bet you are using his last 30 games..........

 

 

I fixed it.   My "wish" is he plays everyday, since I own him and NOT Desmond.  (I did pick up Dahl, yesterday, in same league I own Reynolds)    I'm just being realistic

Edited by rich22

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1 hour ago, TheJuggernautBTCH said:

Something has to change.....potentially Desomnd to play SS again to give space to Desmond/Dahl?

I just don't see that happening. I thought Ian liked lead the majors in errors at short. You have to believe the Rockies want somebody at short who can make the plays with all the hitting in Colorado. 

 

"if and "when" the Rockies get healthy somebody is going to make a big decision who plays or doesn't...

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Reynolds is a cutter, plain & simple, you all missed your chance to sell high.  This is the David Dahl thread.  I like this young buck, I hope he picks up where he left off last year.  GL to all who own him

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10 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

You aren't going to sit a .900 ops veteran slugging the **** out of the ball, in the midst of making first playoff birth in years, to give at bats to some dude who had a nice 200 at bat run on a 100 loss team that no veteran remembers last season.  Not. Going. To. Happen.  Be realistic and objective.

 

And one of the mainstays who propelled the Rockies to this position at the break -- ie, a 7.5 game for the second wild card

 

I don't know if y'all heard, but Reynolds slashed .284/.379/.513 in the first half while guys like Desmond, Cargo, Dahl, Story, etc who were supposed to be the Rockies core players this year either were mediocre or just couldn't get on the field at all.

 

I guess what I'm saying is you could approach this situation and make the decision based on what a computer tells you to do, or you could look at it from the human aspect. Managers usually do the latter.

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1 minute ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

And one of the mainstays who propelled the Rockies to this position at the break -- ie, a 7.5 game for the second wild card

 

I don't know if y'all heard, but Reynolds slashed .284/.379/.513 in the first half while guys like Desmond, Cargo, Dahl, Story, etc who were supposed to be the Rockies core players this year either were mediocre or just couldn't get on the field at all.

 

I guess what I'm saying is you could approach this situation and make the decision based on what a computer tells you to do, or you could look at it from the human aspect. Managers usually do the latter.

 

 

Believe it or not a MLB manager is not going to just keep playing someone if they aren't productive, it's not like he is going to just think "Oh but he helped us get here and slashed .284/.379/.513 in the first half."   He is going to most likely look at Reynolds historical numbers and what he has done in the last 30 days which is:

Past month (since June 14)  he is  .225/.354/.325.    Going back to June 12 he is .209/.353/.302.

 

It really is that simple.  If Reynolds can't show some type of life in the next 2 weeks or so and Dahl comes back I can almost guarantee you that Reynolds will start getting less and less AB's.  Reynolds is no doubt a better hitter in Colorado but he hasn't just magically become this .280 hitter.   He is closer to the .225 hitter, and he has proven that over his career of 4877 AB's.  FOR HIS CAREER he is a .237 AVG .330 OBP.

 

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The guy who really sucks is Desmond.  Terrible in 2015, absolute dookie the second half of 2016, OPSing just north of .700 this year playing his home games in Coors.  Cargo is having a horrible season, but he has a far better track record than Desmond.  Reynolds is a human windmill, but at least gives you competitive ABs in spite of his need to leave earth constantly thus swinging at a ton of bad breaking balls.  I live in Denver and watch quite a few Rockie games and Desmond is atrocious.  He's a high K/low BB guy, which you could live with if he had a ceiling of 40 HR, but his ceiling seems to be about 20-25, which isn't enough when his OBP hovers around .300.

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21 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

frontal lobotomy... in go the surgeon's tools... awful squishing sounds....        

 

relieeeeffff

 

okay. cool. Now I have no memory of Dahl this season. I certainly do not remember drafting him at pick #112, right before Michael Fulmer and Adam Duvall. Or watching him rot on the bench for months while he tweeted happy-go-lucky pics of eating linguini with his parents (who may or may not have conceived him in middle school)

 

Who is this Dahl character in the Rockies farm system? Never heard of him... might be worth a stash though. 

Baseball America grades him out at-->  Hit: 60. Power: 55. Speed: 60. Fielding: 60. Arm: 55
 

man, that's really good! for comparison, dreamboat Andrew Benintendi was graded at Hit: 70. Power: 55. Speed: 50. Fielding: 50.

so, in a fantasy sense, 175 points (hit/power/speed) compared to Dahl's 175 points.   Hmmmmm.    

Worse natural hitter, but better speed. Plus Coors. Light. brewed using crisp mountain stream water at a factor in Bakersfield. 

 

How about everyones favorite pedo-stashe Lewis Brinson? Hit: 50. Power: 60. Speed: 60

170 total...   inferior to this Dahl fellow!!

 

I'm all in. Hopefully he isn't injury-prone or anything.  

 

*The W.S.L.C. (Washington State Lobotomy Center) does not perform frontal lobotomies for fantasy-sports related trauma unless recommended by a physician. 

 

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Dahl still has a ways to go, so he needs to clear those hurdles first.  But we also have to be honest here. We know what Reynolds and Parra are. They haven't changed as players (as say compared to Yonder Alonso) . They may have had some hot streaks, but unless they stay hot by the time Dahl is ready (or if Dahl gets ready), then they are not huge factors for playing time. Tapia is more of a wild card, though his general lack of plate discipline and power likely make him an inferior option.  And then there's whatever is wrong with CarGo. It seems very likely playing time will be there. The question is can Dahl stay healthy to take advantage of it?

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4 hours ago, Fiveohnine said:

Reynolds is slashing .285/.375/.515. .Like I said, easily their third best hitter.

Over the last month he's .255/.381/.415, which is still better than Desmond during any stretch and obviously they're all better than Dahl, who hasn't even seen the field. To think either of those guys will come back and put Reynolds in a platoon or on the bench is very wishful.

 

1 hour ago, rich22 said:

 

 

Wrong.     Past month (since June 14)  he is  .225/.354/.325.    Going back to June 12 he is .209/.353/.302.

 

 

 

Fangraphs appears to be "broken" lol

 

If you do "last 30 days" using the Splits Tool Reynolds is hitting .225/.354/.350 (96 PA)

 

But you do filter using a "last 30 days" split using the leaderboards page, Reynolds line improves to .255/.381/.415 (113 PA)!

 

 

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1 minute ago, Jericho said:

Dahl still has a ways to go, so he needs to clear those hurdles first.  But we also have to be honest here. We know what Reynolds and Parra are. They haven't changed as players (as say compared to Yonder Alonso) . They may have had some hot streaks, but unless they stay hot by the time Dahl is ready (or if Dahl gets ready), then they are not huge factors for playing time. Tapia is more of a wild card, though his general lack of plate discipline and power likely make him an inferior option.  And then there's whatever is wrong with CarGo. It seems very likely playing time will be there. The question is can Dahl stay healthy to take advantage of it?

 

I'd add that we may not know what Dahl is.

 

He was terrific in his debut, sure. But he also sported a .404 BABIP and a pretty high K-rate.

Edited by My Dinner With Andre

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7 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

I'd add that we may not know what Dahl is.

 

He was terrific in his debut, sure. But he also sported a .404 BABIP and a pretty high K-rate.

 

 

That's a little true. Dahl has generally run high BABIPs due to his swing and Coors tends to inflate BABIPs as well.  It shouldn't be .400 good, but he could easily be expected to finish with one of the better BABIPs in baseball.  And that's assuming he makes no adjustments.  But he only had 237 plate appearances in the majors, and lots can change. So he could fall apart too. But at least he'd have to get playing time first before doing that.

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The Rockies are contending for the wildcard so I assume veteran loyalty goes out the window and whoever hits, plays.  They'll give Dahl a chance to show them he can pick up where he left off last season just as I am sure they will give Tapia regular ABs if he keeps doing what he is doing.  Why is it any more complicated than that?

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3 hours ago, ragrag said:

The party seemingly ended w/ Reynolds abt 25 games ago.  He's been a regression candidate from the beginning and to expect him to play over his head for an entire season is very wishful, IMO.

Actually what I'm saying isn't based on a wish. It's a fact that Reynolds has easily been their third best hitter.

Dahl owners are hopeful that he'll be benched/platooned despite that fact. That's the only wishful part of the conversation.

2 hours ago, rich22 said:

Wrong.     Past month (since June 14)  he is  .225/.354/.325.    Going back to June 12 he is .209/.353/.302.

 

How are you computing your stats?    I bet you are using his last 30 games..........

 

 

I fixed it.   My "wish" is he plays everyday, since I own him and NOT Desmond.  (I did pick up Dahl, yesterday, in same league I own Reynolds)    I'm just being realistic

I just took the last 30 days on ESPN. But I double checked and it's correct, but dated 30 days from his last game, Sunday before the All Star break. He had a huge game exactly 30 days prior to that day.

Of course, unlike fangraphs and ESPN, the manager isn't going to completely forget his big games based on what day of the month it is.

2 hours ago, shakestreet said:

I just don't see that happening. I thought Ian liked lead the majors in errors at short. You have to believe the Rockies want somebody at short who can make the plays with all the hitting in Colorado. 

 

"if and "when" the Rockies get healthy somebody is going to make a big decision who plays or doesn't...

There was a big butthurt discussion about this in the Story thread. According to Fan Graphs, back when he played SS for the Nats, Ian Desmond was much better defensively than Trevor Story is now. But obviously it's been quite some time since then. He would probably have to spend an offseason to get back to form. But even if they just let him play there now, I can't imagine he'd be much worse than Story, who is among the worst defensive shortstops.

Edited by Fiveohnine

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15 minutes ago, Weekday Warrior said:

The Rockies are contending for the wildcard so I assume veteran loyalty goes out the window and whoever hits, plays.  They'll give Dahl a chance to show them he can pick up where he left off last season just as I am sure they will give Tapia regular ABs if he keeps doing what he is doing.  Why is it any more complicated than that?

 

Because you're dealing with: (1) egos; and (2) $$$.

 

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