2ndCitySox

David Dahl 2017 Outlook

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Just got him at 198 in my 12 team. 

 

Pretty happy about that.

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1 hour ago, GrapeJuice said:

Got him at 228.

 

On 3/28/2017 at 8:36 AM, Random Dude said:

I am beginning to think I took this guy way too early... 12th round. Is he even going to see the field in April?

 

On 3/28/2017 at 8:14 AM, rich22 said:

178, about 2 weeks ago

 

On 3/28/2017 at 7:57 AM, mannymachado said:

I took him 14th round pick 9 in a 10 man league

 

On 3/28/2017 at 6:31 AM, DonnieAvery17 said:

#207. Steal.

 

59 minutes ago, pierceNKC said:

Just got him at 198 in my 12 team. 

Pretty happy about that.

 

Yeesh... I think I greatly over-estimated his value. Took him in round 11 (keeper league, so ADP is a bit skewed) right after Adam Eaton and Odubel Herrera...

could have sworn he was going in the 95-100 range before the injury... and he won't be out that long will he? 

 

I was stoked to have him as my OF3... but y'all making me feel like a fool 

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15 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeesh... I think I greatly over-estimated his value. Took him in round 11 (keeper league, so ADP is a bit skewed) right after Adam Eaton and Odubel Herrera...

could have sworn he was going in the 95-100 range before the injury... and he won't be out that long will he? 

 

I was stoked to have him as my OF3... but y'all making me feel like a fool 

 

If it makes you feel any better, when I took him in 12th it's keeper also,so that played into my thinking. i don't think we are terribly off on him in a keeper. 

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Kept him as my 13th rounder in a 14 man keeper. Seems to be ok value right now.

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5 hours ago, rich22 said:

 

3rd week in April

 

How do you get third week in April from this? Looks like a wait and see to me. 

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30 minutes ago, Chuckles said:

I doubt an absolute stud.  More like a steady OF3 or 4.

 

I do agree that saying he would be an absolute stud is optimistic but I tend to think that he will be closer to the 'absolute stud' side then he will be closer to an OF3-OF4.

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6 hours ago, Random Dude said:

 

How do you get third week in April from this? Looks like a wait and see to me. 

 

 

Just a guess

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This kid will be stud. He already has put up good numbers. Looks to thrive in high stress situations. Has power/speed. Plays in a great stadium. Has an incredible lineup around him. 

 

The only knock is the injuries. He's young so there's time for him to recover/learn how to prepare his body for/during the season.

 

Easily OF2 in my book that'll do it all. Got him at #152. I know I took him a round or two early, but he'll easily outproduce that once he's on the field.

Edited by Dark Kn19ht

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Own him but think it's time to pump the breaks. 

 

A lot of people are making him out to be the second coming of Mike Trout. At absolute best, he could come close to doing Charlie Blackmon type things. Those years are probably 1-2 years from right now at best. 


 

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8 hours ago, mevins31 said:

Own him but think it's time to pump the breaks. 

 

A lot of people are making him out to be the second coming of Mike Trout. At absolute best, he could come close to doing Charlie Blackmon type things. Those years are probably 1-2 years from right now at best. 

 

This. As good as that lineup/park factor are, he's still likely going to hit ~7th, meaning he will miss out on a lot of PA and Run/RBI opportunities. I also think he's closer to a .280 hitter this year than a .300 hitter. Even if he maintains a 20/20 pace, that lineup spot, missed time, and a .280 BA probably push him out of the Top 100. 

 

I also think there is non-zero chance some combination of lingering rib injury, missed Spring training AB, and Sophomore Slump/pitcher's adjusting conspire to give him a lower floor. 

 

That said, I would still take him in the 10th round because of he has more upside there than almost any hitter there. I guess a lot of you nabbing him later (150+) don't play in Yahoo, where his ADP is much, much lower. 

Edited by Rainyy

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2 hours ago, Rainyy said:

That said, I would still take him in the 10th round because of he has more upside there than almost any hitter there. I guess a lot of you nabbing him later (150+) don't play in Yahoo, where his ADP is much, much lower. 

 

based on these posts of where people drafted him, Dahl is going literally 120-130 picks after Bregman and Benintendi. Considering all three have good pedigree, but are young and fairly unproven-- that seems extreme-- especially considering that Dahl has the advantage in ballpark + surrounding lineup. 

It must purely be the injury, which- knock on wood- doesn't seem too sinister like a recurring hammy or oblique or something. 

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2 hours ago, Rainyy said:

 

This. As good as that lineup/park factor are, he's still likely going to hit ~7th, meaning he will miss out on a lot of PA and Run/RBI opportunities. I also think he's closer to a .280 hitter this year than a .300 hitter. Even if he maintains a 20/20 pace, that lineup spot, missed time, and a .280 BA probably push him out of the Top 100. 

 

I also think there is non-zero chance some combination of lingering rib injury, missed Spring training AB, and Sophomore Slump/pitcher's adjusting conspire to give him a lower floor. 

 

That said, I would still take him in the 10th round because of he has more upside there than almost any hitter there. I guess a lot of you nabbing him later (150+) don't play in Yahoo, where his ADP is much, much lower. 

 

lol, So .280 avg 20/20 players are not top 100 players? What I have bolded makes absolutely no sense man, no offense, just really really bad reasoning there.

 

"12 guys in 2011
10 guys in 2012
9 guys in 2013
5 guys in 2014
4 Guys in 2015" - Faketeams.com

 

I understand this guy has a lot to live up to and get healthy which is why I say OF2 is what he could easily be if healthy. 

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Doesn't he strike out a lot? You would think his ADP would be higher in ESPN leagues than Yahoo because most leagues on ESPN use 5 OF's and most on Yahoo use 3 OF's but from what I gather from reading this thread is that his ADP is higher on Yahoo which I find a little confusing.  

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Why do I think of "Homeland" when I see this thread?

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Just now, DannyMcPot said:

 

Dar Adal 

It's not Dar a Dahl?

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1 hour ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

 

lol, So .280 avg 20/20 players are not top 100 players? What I have bolded makes absolutely no sense man, no offense, just really really bad reasoning there.

 

You should worry less about my reasoning skills and more about your reading comprehension, which has utterly failed you. 

 

First, I said a 20/20 PACE. That's a direct quote. Shall I define from the dictionary what "pace" means? 

 

Second, I think you are vastly underestimating the effect plate appearances have on fantasy value. The injury combined with the lineup position are not ideal. 

 

Streamer has him at 423 AB; Zips has him at 381; CAIRO at 381. Maybe the projection systems are selling him short, but those totals are obviously going to hurt his fantasy value. Not surprisingly, those systems all have him ranked 175+. 

 

Also, I am pretty sure I am on your side here. I am advocating taking him in the 10th round, which is far sooner than most are taking him. I love Coors, the lineup, Dahl's upside. Injuries to prone players (Cargo, etc.) could move Dahl up the lineup. 

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

You should worry less about my reasoning skills and more about your reading comprehension, which has utterly failed you. 

 

First, I said a 20/20 PACE. That's a direct quote. Shall I define from the dictionary what "pace" means? 

lol, listen man. I'm not coming at you so don't get defensive. 

You said you think he's closer to a .280 hitter and that his pace is 20/20 and that puts him "out of the TOP 100".

 

Forgive me if i misunderstand, but a pace of 20/20 for nearly a full season what 18/18.....right? That's like top 75 in my book.

 

I'm glad you're a Dahl fan. We all should be.

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24 minutes ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

Forgive me if i misunderstand, but a pace of 20/20 for nearly a full season what 18/18.....right? That's like top 75 in my book.

 

At-Bats rather than Games Played is a more accurate reflection of his pace/extrapolated totals. 

 

Composite projections have him at about .286 15/13 in 381 ABs. These are conservative (arguably especially so with young players) so I think those might be selling him a bit short. 

 

That said, even if he was to hit .280 18/18, Top 75 would be contingent on his Run/RBI totals and would likely be out of reach. Despite playing in the best lineup in baseball, batting 7th isn't the best spot. In addition to losing ABs, he will have a catcher and pitcher hitting behind him. 

 

Composite projections have him at 59/53 RBI/Runs, which is the biggest thing hurting his ranking. 

 

Barring injury, it also looks virtually impossible for Dahl to perform his way into 1-5 in the batting order - this distinguishes Dahl from most other high upside players. If Desmond and/or Story really struggle (more likely Desmond - let's say he isn't the same after recovering from the hand injury), he MIGHT bat 6th. Even then, given they shelled out all that money for Desmond and want Story's power in the 5/6 hole, it's unlikely. 

 

You're probably hoping for a Cargo injury since they will need a lefty higher up in the lineup to off-set all those righties. 

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