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Jose Bautista 2017 Outlook

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1 hour ago, Kenny Bania said:

Granted I'm in an OBP league, but can't believe people are cutting Joey Bats 3 weeks into the season.  Taking a big risk to get replacement level production.  This is why the bench exists.....  

 

agreed.   He *might* indeed be done, and has fallen off a cliff.  OR he's in a monstrous slump three weeks into the season.     massive slumps happen to the best of players, old or young.  (I seem to recall Jeter hitting under .200 for two solid months one year, only to crush it the remaining four months and finish with his typical stat line.)

I may end up dropping Bats, but it wont happen this early, for certain.

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Yes. My general recommendation to a generic 12+ team league is still to hold for another few weeks. Just submitting myself as a data point. Won't be too devastated if I'm wrong. 

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1 hour ago, Vulmear said:

1) he is 36 years old

2) he looks awful

3) maybe a team has a better use for that bench spot

4) depends on the depth of your league's waiver wire

 

I can see why some people would bench him and some cut him.

this is the time of the year where tough decisions are made. will he rebound? if not did you miss out on rostering a guy who was breaking out?

 

Big Papi 2015

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=ortizda01&year=2015&t=b#all_half

April/May everyone was jumping ship. Too old they said. Father time caught up they said ...

 

So it's down to what can you gain now, and what can you lose later by dropping him.

By now, in a 12 team 25 roster league, there are no hitting options available on the wire, who could be so important to a team, that a possible top 50-100 player can not occupy a bench spot instead any of them, even with only 2 hitting benchspots.

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6 minutes ago, JCD said:

 

Big Papi 2015

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=ortizda01&year=2015&t=b#all_half

April/May everyone was jumping ship. Too old they said. Father time caught up they said ...

 

So it's down to what can you gain now, and what can you lose later by dropping him.

By now, in a 12 team 25 roster league, there are no hitting options available on the wire, who could be so important to a team, that a possible top 50-100 player can not occupy a bench spot instead any of them, even with only 2 hitting benchspots.

Bats ain't Papi. Point taken, but that's a pretty major difference in the calculus.

Edited by matdotmarshall

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Bautista is a career .250-ish hitter, probably a 25-30 ceiling this year if he pulls it together. Papi is career .280ish who went over .300 a number of times, including his final year and had a floor of 30 homers. There are guys on our wire who will approximate a .250/25 season, maybe even with some steals to boot (Dickerson, Granderson, VMart, Napoli, Carlos Gomez, to name a few). Very few will approximate a .280/30. Again, YMMV so just because the risk is worth it for one team doesn't mean it has to be worth it for another. But Ortiz and Jeter are very generous comps and, I think, much farther removed from a 12-team replacement threshold than Jose Bautista. 

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His walks are the only redeeming point about his early season so far. That being said, I have jumped ship.

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46 minutes ago, matdotmarshall said:

Bautista is a career .250-ish hitter, probably a 25-30 ceiling this year if he pulls it together. Papi is career .280ish who went over .300 a number of times, including his final year and had a floor of 30 homers. There are guys on our wire who will approximate a .250/25 season, maybe even with some steals to boot (Dickerson, Granderson, VMart, Napoli, Carlos Gomez, to name a few). Very few will approximate a .280/30. Again, YMMV so just because the risk is worth it for one team doesn't mean it has to be worth it for another. But Ortiz and Jeter are very generous comps and, I think, much farther removed from a 12-team replacement threshold than Jose Bautista. 

 

Batting average was not the point. Upside was.

Only Dickerson is available, and if his ceiling isn't worth it now, then why would anyone waste a rosterspot on him, especially when Bautista's upside is worth a lot more?

And what do you gain with a Dickerson on your bench, instead of Bautista?

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13 minutes ago, JCD said:

 

Batting average was not the point. Upside was.

Only Dickerson is available, and if his ceiling isn't worth it now, then why would anyone waste a rosterspot on him, especially when Bautista's upside is worth a lot more?

And what do you gain with a Dickerson on your bench, instead of Bautista?

Yeah I get that, but swap in BA, upside, counting stats, etc. Whatever you want. Bautista is not on Ortiz's level and so it's an apples-to-oranges cut comparison. This is not a guy swimming in upside, even if he pulls it together. I drafted Bautista for his floor. Not for his upside. Conforto - who I replaced him with - is an upside pick. 36 year olds in decline are not upside picks.


I assume you're saying only Dickerson is available in your league (filed away under YMMV, if so), because everyone I listed is available in mine. 

I don't gain much with either of them on my bench. Which is why neither of them are there. But if I decide that I want a guy with middling contact skills and good power, I have plenty of options that may even be producing enough to take them off the bench.

Edited by matdotmarshall

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I'm a huge Blue Jays fan, and really didn't want to see the team sign him back for this season. Tired of his song and dance. The writing was also on the wall last season, he isn't worth the money he wants. So what do the Jays do, give him $18 mil for this year. I can only shake my head.


Yeah, Joey Bats is getting dropped in various league setups. He's stinking it up something fierce.

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20 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

He kinda went downhill after the Odor beatdown.

Good point.  Knocked the sense right out of him seemingly.  Opposite effect.

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35 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

He kinda went downhill after the Odor beatdown.

 

92 games leading up to the Odor punch: .254/.387/.538

 

92 games since Odor punch: .221/..348/.406

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59 minutes ago, k.k. said:

I'm a huge Blue Jays fan, and really didn't want to see the team sign him back for this season. Tired of his song and dance. The writing was also on the wall last season, he isn't worth the money he wants. So what do the Jays do, give him $18 mil for this year. I can only shake my head.


Yeah, Joey Bats is getting dropped in various league setups. He's stinking it up something fierce.

 

$18M for one year is not that bad. At least TOR is done with him after this season.

 

I see him turning it around a bit, but a .250/25HR isn't cutting it.

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Overmatched by Alex Meyer

 

guy hasn't been the same since catching that cross from don flamingo last year 

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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Overmatched by Alex Meyer

 

guy hasn't been the same since catching that cross from don flamingo last year 

Wish I could like twice for a Don Flamingo reference. 

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8 hours ago, matdotmarshall said:

Yes. My general recommendation to a generic 12+ team league is still to hold for another few weeks. Just submitting myself as a data point. Won't be too devastated if I'm wrong. 

And mine is he should have been dropped earlier.  You could have had Avisail Garcia as your OF(LF) or Mitch Haniger or maybe even Eric Thames had you moved sooner in that small a league.  Sousa Jr is tearing it up too.  Motter has OF eligibility.  Conforto was mentioned.  I bet a few of these guys were available in a 5x5 std 12 team league. And all are way better than Bautista.  But holding on to a guy like him keeps you from landing the next big one like a Thames.

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Infield single a base on balls and a 3 run HR, to finish the day.

It's happening?

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ron underscore paul underscore underscore it underscore s underscore happening dot gif

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