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Alex Bregman 2017 Outlook

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What are your thoughts on Alex Bregman for the coming season? I've been trying to get a feel for where he should be drafted and, from what I'm seeing so far, the projections really seem to be a bit of a mixed bag at this stage. 

 

For instance, Steamer/ZiPS both foresee him having a respectable, yet somewhat underwhelming stat line (mid-high .260s BA with 18-20 HRs, 150-plus R+RBI, and around 8-10 steals). Useful, for sure, but nothing eye popping. Bill James, on the other hand, has him pegged for a full-on breakout campaign, penciling him in for a low-mid .280s BA, to go along with 29 HRs, 200-plus R+RBI, and 11 steals. That's one heck of an evaluation--in fact, that's a borderline top 5 3B projection.

 

With that being said, how do you feel about him following his transition to the bigs? Is he destined for fantasy mediocrity in 2017, or are we looking at a potential sophomore season emergence, somewhere along the lines of what we saw from David Wright back in 2005?

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if he healthy and has a decent ST he will be a top 60 pick by the time the final rankings get updated

i want to say top 50 pick but too early to tell

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I am extremely high on Bregman but the Bill James projection is ridiculously high.

 

I've come to take a quick glance at all of Bill James projections as they are typically ceiling projections ... just a glance and quickly look away!

 

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I remember he was ice cold when he first came up. Would it be fair to look at his stats after that initial ice-cold stretch? Then again, now teams have had time to come up with a way of pitching him and we don't know if he can adjust.

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Been watching Bregs since he was a freshman at LSU. Love this kid...he's a guy I point my boys to when I talk about playing the game the right way. Not just on the field but his preparation off it, his desire, toughness, love for the game. Huge fan and I own him in both of my keeper leagues. I don't believe he'll reach Bill James' expectations, but I do think we'll see a solid BA with solid power. Not sure about the SBs...curious to see if they come, but I won't count on them until they do. 

 

For 2017, I'm projecting him around .285 with 20-24 HR, ~8 SBs, and his R/RBI will depend on batting order slot. Good season but not great. 

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He's a star in the making. All the scouts underestimated his power. His hands are so fast and wrists are so strong.

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13 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

He's a star in the making. All the scouts underestimated his power. His hands are so fast and wrists are so strong.

 

They underestimated his power because of how LSU taught/teaches its players to hit...especially in the era of college baseball in which Bregman played. LSU taught its hitters to have a more level swing and to keep the bat in the zone longer. Because of the NCAA's overreaction to the ball, HRs were harder to come by so teams like LSU coached their hitters to hit the ball in order to get on base...singles, doubles. When Bregman left LSU, he spent the 2015-16 offseason reworking his mechanics to add the power to his bat that was already in present in his potential capability. It worked. 

 

Bregman always had power. I believe he holds the Arizona HS single-season record for HRs...I think. LSU just coached it out of him for the sake of the team mission. Of course, that was really a departure from the classic LSU approach...swing up from the shoe-tops and try to hit everything out of the park. 

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11 hours ago, Squeeealer said:

I remember he was ice cold when he first came up. Would it be fair to look at his stats after that initial ice-cold stretch?

 

Yes and no. I don't think you can judge him solely on his final numbers, but I also don't think it's fair to just cast aside those awful first few weeks (even though he was in the midst of a slump prior to his promotion).

 

Ultimately, I think he's better than his surface stats would suggest, but also not quite as good as he was once he got his bat going, as that was probably more of a result of a hot streak that just happened to immediately follow a terrible slump.

Edited by PitchesLoveVelocity

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On 1/11/2017 at 1:31 AM, tucker26 said:

About 100th overall so far....

 

http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=3B

Turner should be above him but otherwise those ranks look about right.

 

Haven't seen the partial season splits since he "turned it on" after his rough early going last season yet. Does it extrapolate to Trea Turner-ish numbers minus the steals? Certainly felt like he was that good after such a rough start.

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I think he's very very similar to pedroia down the line.

 

and if you are a Hilary voter you will enjoy following him on twitter 

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33 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

I think he's very very similar to pedroia down the line.

 

and if you are a Hilary voter you will enjoy following him on twitter 

People say he profiles as a "Pedroia" but I don't see the comparison. He has more pop than the laser show. He's 3 inches taller and 10-15 pounds heavier. Most triples in a season for Pedroia, 3. Bregman had 3 in 49 games last season. Bregs has more speed too.

Edited by DerekQ

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So; I think he will be awesome.... but his bat isn't as highly regarded as correa right?

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So I keep wondering where realistically I should be looking to target him. As it turns out in my past few drafts he's gone 72, 84 and 89, so he's already being grabbed well below that ADP100 mark. For me, this might be a little early. I think I'd rather snag a Turner, Rendon, Beltre, or even Longoria who have been in similar rounds and later. 3B doesn't seem to thin and if you're solid in most other positions then maybe Bregman is the type of guy you take a gamble on and grab in the 7th. 

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53 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I feel like someone will grab him 20 spots before his ADP in my draft

 

most likely scenario  as his celing is alot higher than almost all players in that 60-100 range

 

 

id rather have bregman over all these players starting around pick 50 not including rp/sp

 

polonco, beltre, cutch, upton, c davis, adam jones, carpenter, segera

 

the only thing preventing me from drafting bregman would be gary, shcwarber, dee, frazier, a sp or kemp

 

i can only see making a strong case for beltre and maybe j up in roto but not h2h but other than that all those players are w.e to me

 

 

Edited by colepenhagen

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2 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I'm going to have Correa on my roster

 

should I have hesitation about having him in addition?

 

everyone expects Stros O to be one of the best this year

no hesitation

stacks in baseball are very good just like in football id have no problem taking correa in 2nd springer 3rd and bregman where ever

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2 hours ago, peelpub94 said:

So I keep wondering where realistically I should be looking to target him. As it turns out in my past few drafts he's gone 72, 84 and 89, so he's already being grabbed well below that ADP100 mark. For me, this might be a little early. I think I'd rather snag a Turner, Rendon, Beltre, or even Longoria who have been in similar rounds and later. 3B doesn't seem to thin and if you're solid in most other positions then maybe Bregman is the type of guy you take a gamble on and grab in the 7th. 

 

See I'm in the exact opposite camp when it comes to Bregman. I'd much rather roll the dice on someone like him, who has legit top 30 upside, as opposed to going with an aging (Beltre), injury prone (Rendon), or just-plain-boring (Turner, Longoria) vet who's on the wrong side of 30; as I feel like the likelihood of Bregman just completely busting is probably not much greater than the likelihood of any of the others in that range having a down season for their own reasons.

 

And I'm normally pretty risk-adverse. But I feel like once you've got a solid foundation (first 5-6 rounds) of bankable, steady producers, the 6th, 7th, and 8th rounds are where you actually want to start to take a chance or two on some upside plays, rather than going for the "safe floor" guy who, on a down year, likely isn't even a top 100 player.

Edited by Pitches Love Velocity

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2 hours ago, Pitches Love Velocity said:

And I'm normally pretty risk-adverse. But I feel like once you've got a solid foundation (first 5-6 rounds) of bankable, steady producers, the 6th, 7th, and 8th rounds are where you actually want to start to take a chance or two on some upside plays, rather than going for the "safe floor" guy who, on a down year, likely isn't even a top 100 player.

couldnt have said it better

 

plus you know they arent going to mess with him (lineup change, demotion, ect) after what we saw last year when bregman 1st got called up

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2 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

couldnt have said it better

 

plus you know they arent going to mess with him (lineup change, demotion, ect) after what we saw last year when bregman 1st got called up

 

There's that. And, well, you know.. Altuve said he'll get 200 hits this year..

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/astros-rookie-alex-bregman-drawing-rave-reviews-from-teammates-091116%3Famp%3Dtrue?client=ms-android-asus

 

So he's got that goin' for him, which is nice.

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Anyone nervous about a Sophomore slump? Will he play at 3rd or SS? Isn't Correa supposed to move to 3rd eventually?

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