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Alex Bregman 2017 Outlook

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He needs to go back to AAA to retool his swing.  .664 OPS and mediocre defense is not helping anyone.

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3 hours ago, jackmurphy said:

 

A huge difference is his 48% ground ball rate. It was 28% last year. And fly ball rate is 29% when it was 43% last year. I agree tho, everything else other than those two things looks good. Needs to start elevating the ball.

 

Seriously, his GB% and FB% flip flopped in the wrong direction. I remember last season he talked about how in college he was taught to hit ground balls, but last season he wanted to hit more flyballs, and he did. He had a power breakout. I have no idea why his swing has changed this way. It is baffling. He was supposed to be one of the safest, highest floors of all the young players to draft this year.

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On 5/4/2017 at 5:34 PM, Flyman75 said:

 

At this point, I'd be surprised if he ended up as a top 10-12 3B. Fortunately, he got enough games combined at 2B/SS last year to qualify for MI in Yahoo this year, or else he wouldn't be playing for me at all. In fact, if Peraza and/or Nunez were who many thought they'd be headed into this season, Bregman would be riding my bench. 

 

At this point, I don't place a lot of value on Bregman...not even going forward. He has to show something, and he really hasn't so far. He's on pace for around 55 runs and 40-45 RBI with no power to speak of. Can he get hot like he did last year? Sure, and in a keeper league I'm holding in hopes that he figures it out. But he needs to start showing some signs of life for fantasy owners...aside from his ability to draw a walk and hit a single. 

 

I understand the expectations for this year being down (even more so with the slow start), but second years are often tough for hitters. Conforto is a good current example. Sano is another. 

Bregman is going to be fine, especially in a keeper/dynasty setting. In the last two weeks, he's batting .279/.333/.372. No, that's not setting the world on fire. No, he hasn't hit a homer or stolen a base in that span. However, we can all acknowledge he's just not clicking completely yet. Even with that, he's riding a 10 game hitting streak. It's still early, both in the season and his career. If you were expecting MVP level production, or fantasy production of a top 50 player, you set yourself up for failure. This season is probably gonna be a season of adjustments. 

Cutting him now is going to be a move that helps the playoff bound teams. This is definitely a guy who can turn it on any given moment. The last month or so of last season, he was one of the best hitters in baseball. Heck, if you take out his wretched start of 1 for 29, then he had a line of .302/.552/.910? I think? 

 

Anyway. He's too good of a hitter to keep suppressed.  He's batting .266 with an OBP of .357. That OBP would have ranked him 48th last year, in between Encarnacion and Bogaerts. He will be fine. Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. If you're not winning now, and you think cutting him for a WW player will give you better chances to win, I understand the move. But if you cut him now, guys who can afford to stash him will, and do you really want him to figure it out in a month on another guys bench? 

It sucks. But wait it out. It's how it goes with young hitters. I know the advanced numbers show why he's failing to produce homers or like he did last year, but we all also know just how good this kid can be. 

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4 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

I havent seen a single AB by him this year...is he just looking overmatched or whats the deal?

 

He is hitting a lot of ground balls and pop-ups. Not a lot of elevated hard solid contact. That's been pretty much the problem. I would love to see a side by side comparison of his swing path 2016 vs 2017.

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16 minutes ago, lassetjus said:

 

He is hitting a lot of ground balls and pop-ups. Not a lot of elevated hard solid contact. That's been pretty much the problem. I would love to see a side by side comparison of his swing path 2016 vs 2017.

 

On the positive note, I don't know if it means anything (hopefully it does), but he probably hit his most well struck ball last night. It was hit at 102.9 MPH at a launch angle of 22 degrees. This combination of velocity and launch angle results in a HR 33% of the time. For Bregman, it was a triple because he sent it to right center to the deepest part of the park.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/videos?video_id=1371616583

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1 hour ago, lassetjus said:

 

He is hitting a lot of ground balls and pop-ups. Not a lot of elevated hard solid contact. That's been pretty much the problem. I would love to see a side by side comparison of his swing path 2016 vs 2017.

 

I would like to see one, too. In all honesty, this is the Bregman I expected to see in the majors when he left LSU...maybe with a couple of HRs at this point in the season. But he got stronger and changed his swing during the 2015-16 offseason and made huge power gains. Where is that power now? Has his swing reverted back to his collegiate days? The numbers suggest that's a strong possibility. 

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He's gonna start getting hits in bunches soon.  I've seen a lot of people compare him to Pedroia...well in Pedroia's first full year he hit .182 in April and was pretty much a hitting machine after that.  You've gotta give these young players time to make adjustments.  And it's not like he hasn't been getting hits - the number production just hasn't been there yet.  Patience with this one. 

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16 minutes ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

Any chance of him getting another 6 games at SS? That is the only reason to hold him at this point

 

Yes there is a chance. It involves Correa missing 6 more games.

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15 minutes ago, lassetjus said:

 

Yes there is a chance. It involves Correa missing 6 more games.

 

I think another scenario for anyone in a five game eligibility league is Correa gets a single game off and they start Bregman there in his place (likely, though not certain to occur...the question is when) or Correa leaves a single game early and they move Bregaman over.  

Edited by Whizzinator

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Just now, Whizzinator said:

 

I think another scenario for anyone in a five game eligibility league is Correa gets a single game off and they start Bregman there in his place (likely, though not certain to occur...the question is when) or Correa leaves a single game early and they move Bregaman over.  

I believe in Y! its 5 starts or 10 appearances.  I also believe he has 4 appearances and 3 starts with the appearance being the game he took over after Correa took a pitch off his hand.  So he needs 2 more starts at SS to gain eligibility in Y! leagues.  Since Correa doesn't get rested often it might take a while unless there is some sort of injury.

 

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FB% over 40% in last 2 weeks. Over 42% for last 7 days. Hot streak is probably coming soon. He's getting the ball off the ground again. 

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1 hour ago, dod959 said:

FB% over 40% in last 2 weeks. Over 42% for last 7 days. Hot streak is probably coming soon. He's getting the ball off the ground again. 

 

I saw that but didn't want to jinx it. Wanted to see more than a 2 week sample. But there it is... hope.

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I think it's funny what a flea he is after being so active on social media all offseason especially in November ?

 

Hes going to pass Memorial Day without a HR. A little "Bregman Monopoly" 

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Just now, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

He's only on my team because the WW is a barren wasteland.

same.

 

just an extremely boring player.  no counting stats...doesn't really hit the ball hard...JAG

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2 minutes ago, mjk356 said:

He's a very poor man's Freddy Sanchez at this point.

 

I was thinking a poor man's Rafael Belliard. 

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