fawkes_mulder

Carlos Gomez 2017 Outlook

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8 hr, 5 SB, .284 (.905 OPS) for CarGomez on the Rangers last year (33 games). Signed a 1 year deal with the Rangers this offseason.

 

Yeah he was cancer on the Astros before that, but he low key could go 20/20+ which is awesome value given his current ADP of 162.33 (http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=OF).

 

He went pick 173 in RW Mock Draft II.

 

I get that people may feel burned over his poor overall production the past two years, but there's all star talent here at a tasty price and I think he is worth the gamble.

 

 

 

 

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I think that in early drafts he will be a bargain, but once spring training rolls around and he starts putting up some numbers his ADP will become stupid. 

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I agree he could have sneaky value.  20/20 is obviously something he can do and Texas seems like a great place for him.  Risk is that he seems to have some issues but he has put up monster numbers in his past and I suspect these issues have been there during these times.  I am buying at a discount whenever I can with him.  

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At his current draft position he could be one of those guys that helps to win you your league. I'm not saying he'll be an MVP candidate but we've seen what he's capable of doing and I just find it hard to believe that after 3 straight years of near 1st round production that he's done producing at a high level. I am trying to get him and will likely pay a little more than his current ADP (161 according to fangraphs) in order to make sure I don't miss out on him. 

 

Looking at his numbers, nothing really stands out as a red flag to me as to why he dropped off after the 2014 season. In 2015 he tore his hammy and I'm sure he wasn't fully healthy when he returned, nor was he confident his ability to play the way he plays ball. I think last year he was pressing too much to try to make things happen after a disappointing year. His k% throughout his career sat right around 22% and all of a sudden it jumped to 30% last year. Still, in just 118 games he hit 13 HR and had 18 SB so the potential for 20/20 or 25/25+ is still there and I like my chances drafting him. 

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bump.  just took him 226th overall in yahoo mock.  on texas he might put up good numbers...25 homers, 15-20 steals

 

where will he hit in that lineup

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7 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

You know he was awesome in his short stint in Texas,with a .284/.362/.543 slash line and 5 stolen bases.

hitters park good lineup.  and i think hes healthy

 

he burned me last year, but im in on him BIGLY this year

Edited by jfazz23

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15 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

hitters park good lineup.  and i think hes healthy

 

he burned me last year, but im in on him BIGLY this year

Health might be the difference as the time in Houston he was in a good line up/park. There is another OF down in that range that has largely been a fantasy disappointment that I would rather use my lottery ticket on. Funny as I can remember the narratives on both Gomez and Puig and how it was just a minor slump that summer. 

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Just now, Low and Away said:

Health might be the difference as the time in Houston he was in a good line up/park. There is another OF down in that range that has largely been a fantasy disappointment that I would rather use my lottery ticket on. Funny as I can remember the narratives on both Gomez and Puig and how it was just a minor slump that summer. 

you would rather have puig over gomez?

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On 1/29/2017 at 1:59 PM, peelpub94 said:

Erratic personality, erratic results. 

some people mature with age.  ive seen it in athletes before.

 

imstill finding great value with him.i think hes still a 20/20 guy with a ceiling closer to 30/30

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

some people mature with age.  ive seen it in athletes before.

 

imstill finding great value with him.i think hes still a 20/20 guy with a ceiling closer to 30/30

Mature enough that he contacted the Rangers coaches after resigning with Texas on what they worked in with his swing last year so that he could work during the offseason on it.  I think the key will  be where he ends up hitting in the lineup.  Anybody know where he is expected?

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2 hours ago, TheBoatmen said:

Mature enough that he contacted the Rangers coaches after resigning with Texas on what they worked in with his swing last year so that he could work during the offseason on it.  I think the key will  be where he ends up hitting in the lineup.  Anybody know where he is expected?

ive read leadoff, but if he has a low OBP i could see him being bumped down to 6th or even 7th

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On 2/9/2017 at 1:48 PM, jfazz23 said:

ive read leadoff, but if he has a low OBP i could see him being bumped down to 6th or even 7th

 

Right now, Rotochamp and Roster Resource have him leading off. 

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Just now, Flyman75 said:

 

Right now, Rotochamp and Roster Resource have him leading off. 

ya im still gonna reach 2-3 rounds for gomez in all leagues this year

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On 2/9/2017 at 10:26 AM, jfazz23 said:

some people mature with age.  ive seen it in athletes before.

 

imstill finding great value with him.i think hes still a 20/20 guy with a ceiling closer to 30/30

 

30/30 ceiling ? Lol. He's 31. He's been around for 10 years and never hit 25 HR. His two good years were his ceiling and they will probably never happen again.  I've never understood the love that this guy gets. He's basically had two good years in his career and several mediocre years. I would draft him as a late round flyer in 5x5 leagues hoping he leads off and can rekindle the magic but nothing more.

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3 hours ago, fletch44 said:

 

30/30 ceiling ? Lol. He's 31. He's been around for 10 years and never hit 25 HR. His two good years were his ceiling and they will probably never happen again.  I've never understood the love that this guy gets. He's basically had two good years in his career and several mediocre years. I would draft him as a late round flyer in 5x5 leagues hoping he leads off and can rekindle the magic but nothing more.

His blend of speed and power is why he will always find some love. Texas can change a player. You could do worse with a late pick

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5 hours ago, fletch44 said:

 

30/30 ceiling ? Lol. He's 31. He's been around for 10 years and never hit 25 HR. His two good years were his ceiling and they will probably never happen again.  I've never understood the love that this guy gets. He's basically had two good years in his career and several mediocre years. I would draft him as a late round flyer in 5x5 leagues hoping he leads off and can rekindle the magic but nothing more.

8 homeruns in a 116 at bats in texas. 30 may be a lot but not out of the question.  31 is not crazy old for baseball standards either.

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

8 homeruns in a 116 at bats in texas. 30 may be a lot but not out of the question.  31 is not crazy old for baseball standards either.

 

I'll be floored if he held that pace over a full season... when his career high is 24.

 

Also, for those arguing Texas is a great park for him -- it's not the jet stream it used to be.  Globe Life Park finished 14th in ESPN's Park Factors for HRs.  His old park in Milwaukee, where he hit those 24 bombs, finished 9th.

 

If you use Baseball Prospectus' Park Factors by Handedness to look at HRs, Globe Life was an even 100 for Righties -- dead on league average.  Milwaukee was a 101, so just slightly above.

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Does anyone have a solid explanation of why this guy fell off the map?  I know the Ks from his youth came back to the forefront, but otherwise it has been one of those strange falls from grace.

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