fawkes_mulder

Carlos Gomez 2017 Outlook

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

40/40 year?

 

sooooooo your telling me there's a chance 

 

I think something like .270-17-28 is probably what I'd pay for, but leading off for TX, that comes with a boatload of runs.

 

ETA -- that may even be aggressive on the base paths

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Quite possible and Texas has a history of turning guys around..

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19 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

I think something like .270-17-28 is probably what I'd pay for, but leading off for TX, that comes with a boatload of runs.

 

ETA -- that may even be aggressive on the base paths

i was joking about 40 40.  i think you are way too light on the homeruns

i really think a 260-28-21 year in in store for him

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2 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

i was joking about 40 40.  i think you are way too light on the homeruns

i really think a 260-28-21 year in in store for him

 

I think you're out of your mind on the power -- and I don't mean that personally at all.

 

In 590 ABs in 2013 he hit 24 HRs (his career high)

In 644 ABs in 2014 he hit 23 HRs

 

Both of those came in Miller Park, which is a great HR ballpark.  Texas has that reputation, but it's been a relatively neutral park for HR for the last few years.

 

There's no way he's hitting 28 -- at least not on a 50% projection.  That's a 90th percentile outcome.

 

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1 hour ago, azeri98 said:

I won't pick him before rd 12-13

 

His ADP is 247 or 21st rd in a 12 team weekly 5 x 5 .. He wasn't drafted in one of my leagues (23 rounds).  I picked him up as a FA

Edited by rich22

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2 minutes ago, rich22 said:

 

His ADP is 247 or 21st rd in a 12 team weekly 5 x 5 .. He wasn't drafted in one of my leagues (23 rounds).  I picked him up as a FA

na its like 145 now in espn.  i think you will see him going around there or even lower as you get closer to the season.

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18 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

I think you're out of your mind on the power -- and I don't mean that personally at all.

 

In 590 ABs in 2013 he hit 24 HRs (his career high)

In 644 ABs in 2014 he hit 23 HRs

 

Both of those came in Miller Park, which is a great HR ballpark.  Texas has that reputation, but it's been a relatively neutral park for HR for the last few years.

 

There's no way he's hitting 28 -- at least not on a 50% projection.  That's a 90th percentile outcome.

 

dont think he saw the ball well in  Milwaukee. and i think hes been injured for a few consecutive years

 

career year from gomez, you heard it here.  beltre is gonna be a good thing for gomez

Edited by jfazz23

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

dont think he saw the ball well in  Milwaukee. and i think hes been injured for a few consecutive years

 

His career-best years came in Milwaukee.  I just don't see how his career best is 24, now he's 31 in an objectively worse park for HRs, and you're still projecting 28+.  

 

I don't understand that.

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7 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

na its like 145 now in espn.  i think you will see him going around there or even lower as you get closer to the season.

 

 

yahoo it's 247, just drafted this morning and he wasn't even picked

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These are his current ADPs as of yesterday when FantasyPros updated their list. 

Yahoo - 330 (that's just silly)

NFBC - 152

CBS - 176

ESPN - 183

Average of these 4 - 210

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1 minute ago, BostonCajun said:

These are his current ADPs as of yesterday when FantasyPros updated their list. 

Yahoo - 330 (that's just silly)

NFBC - 152

CBS - 176

ESPN - 183

Average of these 4 - 210

 

Do we know if FP takes the NFBC from the last 2 weeks or whatever (some NFBC leagues drafted in January when the market was radically different).

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Just now, JFS179 said:

 

Do we know if FP takes the NFBC from the last 2 weeks or whatever (some NFBC leagues drafted in January when the market was radically different).

Honestly I'm not sure. FP site just notes what day their ADP list was updated but doesn't specify on the NFBC. I imagine the other 3 are updated on the day they list the update to have taken place. 

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8 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

Honestly I'm not sure. FP site just notes what day their ADP list was updated but doesn't specify on the NFBC. I imagine the other 3 are updated on the day they list the update to have taken place. 

 

First page has a reference to his NFBC ADP being 163 ... so he's moved up about 10 spots.  The question is whether the move up is truly about 10 spots, or if in the last week he's beend drafted around pick 120, which is finally inching up the overall ADP.

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12 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

First page has a reference to his NFBC ADP being 163 ... so he's moved up about 10 spots.  The question is whether the move up is truly about 10 spots, or if in the last week he's beend drafted around pick 120, which is finally inching up the overall ADP.

Where are you seeing his ADP at 120? Are you just basing that off mocks you've done?

Edited by BostonCajun

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28 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

These are his current ADPs as of yesterday when FantasyPros updated their list. 

Yahoo - 330 (that's just silly)

NFBC - 152

CBS - 176

ESPN - 183

Average of these 4 - 210

 

 

yahoo is 242 right now.  I'm toward end of a mock draft.  He hasn't been drafted

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Just now, BostonCajun said:

Where are you seeing his ADP at 120? Are you just basing that off mocks you've done?

 

I said if...

 

Hypothetically, in January-February he's going in the 160s, then in the last 2 weeks IF he's going 120s, then that finally starts pulling his ADP higher.

 

It's a question of how much backlog ADP is in that 153 number.  If it's the entire NFBC data pool of all drafts since Jauary, that 153 number is possibly misleading.

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3 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

I said if...

 

Hypothetically, in January-February he's going in the 160s, then in the last 2 weeks IF he's going 120s, then that finally starts pulling his ADP higher.

 

It's a question of how much backlog ADP is in that 153 number.  If it's the entire NFBC data pool of all drafts since Jauary, that 153 number is possibly misleading.

I see what you're saying. Just to play devil's advocate, I would argue the number of mocks happening now are far greater than the number of mocks that happened in January into February. I have no way of providing numbers for which I'm basing this on but I would argue that the number of mocks that happen between the middle of February and now are double what happens in January into February. So if that's the case one could argue that the backlog you mentioned is already outweighed but the more recent mocks. 

 

That's a lot of arguing lol

Edited by BostonCajun

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Just drafted at 251 in my yahoo mock

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I think Yahoo is the score the judges throw out in this one, that is unless you're drafting in a Yahoo league where lots of people will go purely by the rankings. I'd imagine his name alone would get him selected earlier in any sort of competitive league.

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I have been in 2 12 team drafts so far and he went in the 10th and 11th rounds

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I drafted Gomez in one of my 12 team mixed leagues...8 keepers. Got him with pick 86 (second pick of rd 8) after the 8 keepers. 

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1 hour ago, rich22 said:

Just drafted at 251 in my yahoo mock

 

Can't trust Yahoo mock drafts if you are in a competitive league. ADP becomes extremely unreliable past 150 in real drafts.

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4 minutes ago, itaos said:

 

Can't trust Yahoo mock drafts if you are in a competitive league. ADP becomes extremely unreliable past 150 in real drafts.

 

Just saying it lined up with the 242 ADP yahoo has.

 

In my only money league, that's drafted so far.  He was not drafted, at all, and I picked him up off wages.   It's team in my Sig.   

Edited by rich22

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20 minutes ago, rich22 said:

 

Just saying it lined up with the 242 ADP yahoo has.

 

In my only money league, that's drafted so far.  He was not drafted, at all, and I picked him up off wages.   It's team in my Sig.   

 

I understand and in the dozens of mock drafts I have done Gomez always goes after 200. However, I would not trust a competitive owner to allow him to last that long. And I have not run across many serious people doing mock drafts past the first few picks.

Edited by itaos

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1 hour ago, Dodgers said:

Yahoo mocks mean nothing..check how many people are still in the draft room after 80 picks

 

In the Pro leagues?  Everyone 

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