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Carlos Gomez 2017 Outlook

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So how realistic is a .270/20/20 season? Isn't that solid?

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11 minutes ago, exm said:

So how realistic is a .270/20/20 season? Isn't that solid?

 

I think it's very realistic

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On 2017-03-16 at 9:01 PM, exm said:

So how realistic is a .270/20/20 season? Isn't that solid?

Very. The coaching staff refined his swing a bit there and instilled confidence in him late last year. I think he can contribute to your team in 2017. 

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On 3/16/2017 at 9:01 PM, exm said:

So how realistic is a .270/20/20 season? Isn't that solid?

honestly....unless he gets injured i think this is a given.  Average could drop to 260...but i think you can get like 26-28 homers and 20+sb

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6 minutes ago, Call me Red said:

Very. The coaching staff refined his swing a bit there and instilled confidence in him late last year. I think he can contribute to your team in 2017. 

i also think the leadership of adrian beltre helped him big time.  he wasnt (will never be) ready to captain a young team like houston

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I bought him in auction on Saturday night and honestly if I win this year, I think he could be a big reason.  This guy was near 1st round if not 1st round talent 13 and 14.  Then the trade to Houston and that was just not a good fit.  Still in his prime at 31 and his numbers with Texas were really good.  Pro-rate those babies out!!!  Not saying I expect those pro-rated, but I dont think getting back to his 2013 and 2014 days are out of the question, with maybe an uptick in HR and a decline in bags.  But still very solid value for what he was going for.  

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@jfazz23 would be proud of me -- landed him last night at pick 160 even.

 

I'll do a backflip if he hits 26-28 HRs though.  I don't see that at all... a new career high if so.

 

Expecting 22-24 with 20+ steals and an average that won't kill me.  If he can hold down that leadoff spot, a boatload of Rs are coming.

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4 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

@jfazz23 would be proud of me -- landed him last night at pick 160 even.

 

I'll do a backflip if he hits 26-28 HRs though.  I don't see that at all... a new career high if so.

 

Expecting 22-24 with 20+ steals and an average that won't kill me.  If he can hold down that leadoff spot, a boatload of Rs are coming.

took him 171 in my keeper....think ian desmond

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I secured his services for $8 in my home league. My projected cost for him was $7 so that worked out nicely. I feel comfortable with an 18/22/.255 line.

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5 hours ago, parrothead said:

I bought him in auction on Saturday night and honestly if I win this year, I think he could be a big reason.  This guy was near 1st round if not 1st round talent 13 and 14.  Then the trade to Houston and that was just not a good fit.  Still in his prime at 31 and his numbers with Texas were really good.  Pro-rate those babies out!!!  Not saying I expect those pro-rated, but I dont think getting back to his 2013 and 2014 days are out of the question, with maybe an uptick in HR and a decline in bags.  But still very solid value for what he was going for.  

Pro rating the Houston numbers to what he had done in MIL up to the point of the trade aren't all that different.

 

Will agree with value this year but think you might be hoping for more value then is going to be there. Have him as a bn bat in a couple of leagues so hope you are more right then I am

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Not the biggest fan of RH leadoff hitters, but Ian Kinsler made it also work for the Rangers, and makes it continue to work for the Tigers.  I have Carlos Gomez as a strong exception and I expect him to be closer to his first-round value that he was a few seasons back with the Brewers.  

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54 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Pro rating the Houston numbers to what he had done in MIL up to the point of the trade aren't all that different.

From 2015-2016

With the Brewers: 
74G, 314PA, 8HR, 7SB, 7.3%BB, 22.3%K, .322BABIP, .262/.328/.423, Hard% 32.4%

With the Astros:
41G, 163PA, 4HR, 10SB, 4.9%BB, 19%K, .276BABIP, .242/.288/.383, Hard% 26.2%
85G, 323PA, 5HR, 13SB, 6.5%BB, 31%K, .300BABIP, .210/.272/.322, Hard%: 29.3%
Total, between July 31st and August 9th (when he was traded to and from): 486PA, 9HR, 23SB, 6%BB, 27%K, .292BABIP, .221/.277/.342, Hard%: 28.1%

With the Rangers:
33G, 130PA, 8HR, 5SB, 10%BB, 27.7%K, .347BABIP, .284/.362/.543, Hard%: 32%

"Career years" (2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 when he played full seasons):
2616PA, 91HR, 146SB, 6.5%BB, 23.8%K, .322BABIP, .265/.326/.453, Hard%: 33.5%

 

 

Let's recap: 

Before being traded to the Astros, Gomez had a pretty solid slash line from 2012-July 30th 2016, a sample of 2616 PA. He was also having a pretty good 2016 prior to the trade. His career averages in a few key stats prior to the trade:

  • a 6.5% walk rate
  • a 23.8% strike out rate
  • a .322BABIP
  • a 33.5% hard contact rate

With the Astros, those numbers changed drastically:

  • 6% walk rate (4.9% in 2015)
  • 27% strike out rate 
  • .300BABIP in 2016, .276 in 2015, averaging out to .292 (30 points fewer than his career norm)
  • 28.1% hard contact rate 

Right before he went to the Astros he was supposed to have been dealt to the Mets. The Mets said Gomez had a wonky hip, his agent denied it. Regardless, I'm thinking something wasn't quite right. Gomez left a place he was comfortable and could be a big personality to a club in the American League where things may have been different. I don't watch many Astros games, but I can't say that the team oozes personality. 

Then he winds up with the Rangers, where you have guys like Andrus and Beltre playing pranks on one another on the field

 

His year in Houston looks like the outlier to me.

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14 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

honestly....unless he gets injured i think this is a given.  Average could drop to 260...but i think you can get like 26-28 homers and 20+sb

 

Ouch.

 

Carlos Gomez departed Tuesday's game against the White Sox after jamming his left shoulder while sliding into third base following a triple.

The Rangers don't think the injury is serious, so it sounds like his exit was precautionary. However, Gomez will be re-evaluated on Wednesday and we should know more about his status then. The fiery outfielder is having a nice spring so far, going 11-for-32 at the plate with three home runs.

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1 minute ago, Vrev said:

 

Ouch.

 

Carlos Gomez departed Tuesday's game against the White Sox after jamming his left shoulder while sliding into third base following a triple.

The Rangers don't think the injury is serious, so it sounds like his exit was precautionary. However, Gomez will be re-evaluated on Wednesday and we should know more about his status then. The fiery outfielder is having a nice spring so far, going 11-for-32 at the plate with three home runs.

following a triple :)

 

thinking hell be fine, but i never like hearing shoulder problems

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15 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

From 2015-2016

With the Brewers: 
74G, 314PA, 8HR, 7SB, 7.3%BB, 22.3%K, .322BABIP, .262/.328/.423, Hard% 32.4%

With the Astros:
41G, 163PA, 4HR, 10SB, 4.9%BB, 19%K, .276BABIP, .242/.288/.383, Hard% 26.2%
85G, 323PA, 5HR, 13SB, 6.5%BB, 31%K, .300BABIP, .210/.272/.322, Hard%: 29.3%
Total, between July 31st and August 9th (when he was traded to and from): 486PA, 9HR, 23SB, 6%BB, 27%K, .292BABIP, .221/.277/.342, Hard%: 28.1%

With the Rangers:
33G, 130PA, 8HR, 5SB, 10%BB, 27.7%K, .347BABIP, .284/.362/.543, Hard%: 32%

"Career years" (2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 when he played full seasons):
2616PA, 91HR, 146SB, 6.5%BB, 23.8%K, .322BABIP, .265/.326/.453, Hard%: 33.5%

 

 

Let's recap: 

Before being traded to the Astros, Gomez had a pretty solid slash line from 2012-July 30th 2016, a sample of 2616 PA. He was also having a pretty good 2016 prior to the trade. His career averages in a few key stats prior to the trade:

  • a 6.5% walk rate
  • a 23.8% strike out rate
  • a .322BABIP
  • a 33.5% hard contact rate

With the Astros, those numbers changed drastically:

  • 6% walk rate (4.9% in 2015)
  • 27% strike out rate 
  • .300BABIP in 2016, .276 in 2015, averaging out to .292 (30 points fewer than his career norm)
  • 28.1% hard contact rate 

Right before he went to the Astros he was supposed to have been dealt to the Mets. The Mets said Gomez had a wonky hip, his agent denied it. Regardless, I'm thinking something wasn't quite right. Gomez left a place he was comfortable and could be a big personality to a club in the American League where things may have been different. I don't watch many Astros games, but I can't say that the team oozes personality. 

Then he winds up with the Rangers, where you have guys like Andrus and Beltre playing pranks on one another on the field

 

His year in Houston looks like the outlier to me.

 

He was traded to Houston in 2015, but your point remains.

 

Also Springer and Altuve are pretty lively dudes in the Houston clubhouse.  

 

I don't think Gomez sees the ball well in Minute Maid, for whatever reason.  I posted a few pages back about his career stats in that park - they're absolutely hideous.  My guess is once things started going south last year, he started messing with things and trying harder and whatever, which generally only exacerbate the problems.  It wasn't until he cleared his head, landed in a new clubhouse with a fresh start that things started clicking again.  I'm cautiously optimistic that his time in Houston was just a complete aberration from the rest of his career.  He's young enough that he shouldn't just fall off a cliff like that, and his career stats in that park make me think there's something seriously wrong with his ability to pick up the ball there.

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17 hours ago, Call me Red said:

I think you'll get .265 70R 17HR 62RBI 22SB

thats first half right??

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7 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

following a triple :)

 

thinking hell be fine, but i never like hearing shoulder problems

 

Shoulder problems for hitters are like elbow problems for pitchers imo... but he's downplaying it:

 

Carlos Gomez (shoulder) doesn't expect to miss much time.

Gomez exited Tuesday's Cactus League game after jamming his left shoulder, but it doesn't sound like a major concern. Consider him day-to-day for now.

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Just now, smeeze said:

 

Shoulder problems for hitters are like elbow problems for pitchers imo... but he's downplaying it:

 

Carlos Gomez (shoulder) doesn't expect to miss much time.

Gomez exited Tuesday's Cactus League game after jamming his left shoulder, but it doesn't sound like a major concern. Consider him day-to-day for now.

ya i dont think its a Brantley situation

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33 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

He was traded to Houston in 2015, but your point remains.

 

Also Springer and Altuve are pretty lively dudes in the Houston clubhouse.  

 

I don't think Gomez sees the ball well in Minute Maid, for whatever reason.  I posted a few pages back about his career stats in that park - they're absolutely hideous.  My guess is once things started going south last year, he started messing with things and trying harder and whatever, which generally only exacerbate the problems.  It wasn't until he cleared his head, landed in a new clubhouse with a fresh start that things started clicking again.  I'm cautiously optimistic that his time in Houston was just a complete aberration from the rest of his career.  He's young enough that he shouldn't just fall off a cliff like that, and his career stats in that park make me think there's something seriously wrong with his ability to pick up the ball there.

Possible for you to edit that for me? Def meant to put 2015, nice catch!

Yeah I think Springer and Altuve are lively, for sure, but I just mean the age/clubhouse might have been a shock to him or just very different. Gomez is a super energetic guy, sometimes for the worse. 

Just went back to see what you posted... Insane how bad they are. Def agree.

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Just got him #187 in a 12 team H2H

 

Never considered him until I read this thread.   Let's do this gents :ph34r:

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