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Starling Marte 2017 Outlook

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5 minutes ago, prizl said:

Steroids do not help you hit the ball any better

 

Umm...

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43 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

Umm...

 

@prizl, Yeah it does. Other than helping you recover from workouts faster and making you stronger it improves your eyesight and makes you a little more focused. This would greatly improve hand eye coordination for the player.

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2 hours ago, prizl said:

Dee Gordon was never that high avg hitter before that year. He is just as fast now. Steroids do not help you hit the ball any better you still need pitch recognition, film study, batting practice etc.  

 

Guys. Dee Gordon, Braun, Ronald McDonald, it's all a completely irrelevant and futile discussion. Every player is different. Even if we were able to find "steroid comps," we know absolute nothing about Marte's steroid regimen (when he began, how much he took). Can we just accept that all of these discussions might as well just be wild guesses? 

 

That said, what I hope we can all agree on, is the general premise that steroids improve player performance. As such, ceteris paribus we would expect the average player in the aggregate to have a decline in production. Does this mean can't improve on his numbers? No. Does this tell us the degree of decline/improvement? No. But this is all we know and other than acknowledging this, we're just grasping at straws. 

 

 

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Maybe we just need to redefine the term "league winner". If you're a good team in a 5x5 head-to-head that needs steals to put you over the top, then Marte could be a league winner. If you're in that same league but need HR to put you over the top instead of SB, he's probably not a league winner.

 

There's no simple broad-brush answer to whether or not he's a "league winner". The point is that he has some highly valuable stats that are hard to find on the WW at this point in the season, and depending on your team's strengths and weaknesses he swings to the extremes - he's could either not be worth a roster spot or a must-grab, depending on your needs.

 

In my case, I want to own as many steals as possible during a steals-scarse season, without it negatively affecting my batting average. He's a must-own to me, whether to trade him or to hold and further corner the steals market.

Edited by psquale

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3 minutes ago, golden eagles said:

When's his official eligible day back? 

Don't be lazy .. Google it and provide the date for the rest of the board. 

 

It's July 18th. 

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Did Marte use in 2015? Did Marte use in 2016? Does anyone know? If not, how can we say he will regress because he's off the roids, when we dont even know if hes played more than a few weeks on them?

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We don't know but we have Dee Gordon and his debacle after he came back from his drug suspension. Small sample size but there is that

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I have no idea what you pessimists are all stuck up for, every player gets checked in the MLB once a year for roids or any other substance. He has been a reliable batting average asset forever since joining the bigs. Marte steals an insane amount of bases, has potential to hit for power, comes with a great, reliable batting average. His only flaw is that he doesn't walk, and if he could improve that as him being as young as he is, could turn into a 60 base stealer with upside for even more. An emerging star that all the PED talk came over him clouded. I see substantial potential in him. I picked him up recently seeing that he will be returning in just a couple weeks and I would do the same if he's waiting around on waivers in your league, 5 category producer that you won't find anywhere else on the waivers with that kind of talent. 

Edited by austinrbreeden

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5 minutes ago, austinrbreeden said:

His only flaw is that he doesn't walk...5 category producer that you won't find anywhere else on the waivers with that kind of talent. 

 

Good post and I also think Marte has a strong chance of returning Top 50 value when he returns, but just to nitpick a little (sorry), I'd say Marte has a legitimate weakness in counting statistics, at least relative to most other guys drafted in the first 4-5 rounds. 

 

He was basically on a 84 run-55 RBI pace last year, which is pretty horrific, and that was with the Pirates finishing 13th in runs (729). 

 

This year, the Pirates are an even worse offensive team. They are on pace for 678.5 runs, good for 26th in the league. Granted, Marte's return itself should boost this pace, all else equal, and maybe Polanco starts playing better, but it's not looking good. 

 

Given these numbers, I am more inclined to call Marte a three or even two category performer, although he is unquestionably elite in two categories (AVG and SBs), which gives him a nice floor. 

 

I still view Marte as a 10-15 HR hitter; that's a unique amount of pop for a guy with his speed profile, but in this age of juiced balls and inflated home runs, his relative power is mediocre at best. In 2013 that power profile boosted a player; in 2017 it's a weakness. 

 

Regardless, love Marte's floor and fully support stashing. I just view him as a Top 30-50 player, as opposed to Top 30. 

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On 6/17/2017 at 8:08 PM, mpbaseball22 said:

Did Marte use in 2015? Did Marte use in 2016? Does anyone know? If not, how can we say he will regress because he's off the roids, when we dont even know if hes played more than a few weeks on them?

Exactly, pessimistic and the hope of all those owners who dropped him that got burned by his suspension are salty about it still to this very day. 

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55 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

Good post and I also think Marte has a strong chance of returning Top 50 value when he returns, but just to nitpick a little (sorry), I'd say Marte has a legitimate weakness in counting statistics, at least relative to most other guys drafted in the first 4-5 rounds. 

 

He was basically on a 84 run-55 RBI pace last year, which is pretty horrific, and that was with the Pirates finishing 13th in runs (729). 

 

This year, the Pirates are an even worse offensive team. They are on pace for 678.5 runs, good for 26th in the league. Granted, Marte's return itself should boost this pace, all else equal, and maybe Polanco starts playing better, but it's not looking good. 

 

Given these numbers, I am more inclined to call Marte a three or even two category performer, although he is unquestionably elite in two categories (AVG and SBs), which gives him a nice floor. 

 

I still view Marte as a 10-15 HR hitter; that's a unique amount of pop for a guy with his speed profile, but in this age of juiced balls and inflated home runs, his relative power is mediocre at best. In 2013 that power profile boosted a player; in 2017 it's a weakness. 

 

Regardless, love Marte's floor and fully support stashing. I just view him as a Top 30-50 player, as opposed to Top 30. 

The pirates are a rebuilding team, building around fireballers Cole and Tailon, they have been an intensely hot team recently these past 3 weeks or so, all of their top prospects have been contributing and hitting extremely well, when Marte returns he will return to a new and an improved team in all aspects. With that being said more rbi and r's are bound to come in this drastically improved offense.

Edited by austinrbreeden

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Got snagged a few days ago in my 12-team league - was going to wait until the end of June myself.

 

Agree with a top 50 player - not sure if I see him as a top 25.

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3 hours ago, backyardballer said:

Got snagged a few days ago in my 12-team league - was going to wait until the end of June myself.

 

Agree with a top 50 player - not sure if I see him as a top 25.

Top 50 is his floor with potential for top 20-25 being his ceiling.

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Picked him up a few days ago and got a bunch of angry texts and phone calls.  Even if Marte sucks it was worth it.

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When do you think he starts his "rehab assignment". I don't know what they call it or allow for when you're coming back from suspension, but I imagine he'll play for a week or so before coming up.

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7 minutes ago, smeeze said:

Picked him up a few days ago and got a bunch of angry texts and phone calls.  Even if Marte sucks it was worth it.

lol that's awesome, get him while you can, if you're not willing to give up a roster spot for a couple weeks then that's on you for being greedy and wanting that roster spot to play with for a bit longer.

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It's an interesting dilemma for sure.  I think in any league 12 teams or more he's gotta be owned by now.  In shallow 10-team, it's more difficult.  He's sitting on waivers in my 10-teamer, and I'm such an active owner I just haven't been able to justify the dead roster spot yet.  I just don't think I'd be able to make it for another three weeks without wanting to scoop up a hot hitter/new closer, etc.  I think he makes more sense for a less-active owner who can just stash him and wait.  If he's still sitting there when the calendar turns to July I'll give more serious thought to adding him, but I've decided that for right now if somebody beats me to him I'll be okay with that.

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7 minutes ago, Sun Tzu said:

It's an interesting dilemma for sure.  I think in any league 12 teams or more he's gotta be owned by now.  In shallow 10-team, it's more difficult.  He's sitting on waivers in my 10-teamer, and I'm such an active owner I just haven't been able to justify the dead roster spot yet.  I just don't think I'd be able to make it for another three weeks without wanting to scoop up a hot hitter/new closer, etc.  I think he makes more sense for a less-active owner who can just stash him and wait.  If he's still sitting there when the calendar turns to July I'll give more serious thought to adding him, but I've decided that for right now if somebody beats me to him I'll be okay with that.

Although you have good reason for waiting, more merit awaits in pouncing now and waiting for an elite producer in stolen bases in what has been a hard category to fill, save yourself the heartbreak and anger in the future and add him now. He's getting picked up more and more and as soon as there is a report on his status he will go back up to 80% owned in a matter of weeks, act now, thank me later.

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19 minutes ago, Sun Tzu said:

It's an interesting dilemma for sure.  I think in any league 12 teams or more he's gotta be owned by now.  In shallow 10-team, it's more difficult.  He's sitting on waivers in my 10-teamer, and I'm such an active owner I just haven't been able to justify the dead roster spot yet.  I just don't think I'd be able to make it for another three weeks without wanting to scoop up a hot hitter/new closer, etc.  I think he makes more sense for a less-active owner who can just stash him and wait.  If he's still sitting there when the calendar turns to July I'll give more serious thought to adding him, but I've decided that for right now if somebody beats me to him I'll be okay with that.

Personally, I think you'd be more than OK dropping Broxton for him as Marte is basically Broxton on steroids (literally). With the OF you have Broxton should never see the field anyway. I picked him up in early June and have had no ragrets

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Anticipation on the return... 

 

time anticipation rewatch GIF

Edited by chud12

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I have him stashed on another team who had accumulated a bunch of injured players, and I'm holding a DL player of his at a rate of 2:1. I.e. I hold DL player for 20 games, villain holds Marte for 10. Both sides benefit from the move.

 

Suggesting this as a strat if you have open DL spot and another owner is hunting for roster space due to overloaded DL.

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