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Bryce Harper 2017 Outlook

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The size and strength difference is unreal. There is no middle ground between '15 and '16. He will come close to '15 I think. Further research showed just how bad it was last year with the shoulder and being out of his zone almost all year + very little strength training.

 

Took him 3 overall in my mixed, no hesitation

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Just now, oldsoul said:

The size and strength difference is unreal. There is no middle ground between '15 and '16. He will come close to '15 I think. Further research showed just how bad it was last year with the shoulder and being out of his zone almost all year + very little strength training.

 

Took him 3 overall in my mixed, no hesitation

 

Totally....

 

So let's say Bryce goes 290/35/95/100/15, where does that put him draft wise. It puts him at 2 in my book

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I have him in an OBP roto league. Can't wait for the season to start. 

 

Mike Podhorzer, of Fangraphs, still has him as his 12th ranked outfielder. I think 12th overall is too low for him, what 11 outfielders could he possibly have before him. I should send him a succulent dead crow with some utensils. 

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22 minutes ago, IceGoat said:

I have him in an OBP roto league. Can't wait for the season to start. 

 

Mike Podhorzer, of Fangraphs, still has him as his 12th ranked outfielder. I think 12th overall is too low for him, what 11 outfielders could he possibly have before him. I should send him a succulent dead crow with some utensils. 

Could be based on 2016, which I still think is a poor indication of who he is. I can think of 6 position players I want over him: Trout, Betts, Goldy, Machado, Arenado and Bryant. Outside of that I'm all in.

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56 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Could be based on 2016, which I still think is a poor indication of who he is. I can think of 6 position players I want over him: Trout, Betts, Goldy, Machado, Arenado and Bryant. Outside of that I'm all in.

 

he looks like a monster in Spring-- eerily similar to how he looked in Spring of 2015. 

Love Arenado, but I might lean Harper. Similar power + steals. 

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4 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

 

he looks like a monster in Spring-- eerily similar to how he looked in Spring of 2015. 

Love Arenado, but I might lean Harper. Similar power + steals. 

 

Arenado has lead the league in RBI the past 2 years and is playing in a STACKED Colorado lineup. He's also much less of an injury risk than Harper. I don't see how you could possibly think Harper is a better pick than Arenado unless you're blinded by bias. 

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6 minutes ago, Willsea33 said:

 

Arenado has lead the league in RBI the past 2 years and is playing in a STACKED Colorado lineup. He's also much less of an injury risk than Harper. I don't see how you could possibly think Harper is a better pick than Arenado unless you're blinded by bias. 

 

Or you are in an OBP league---then it's very easy to prefer Harper to Arenado and in fact, that's the most likely result based on ZIPS or other common projection methods.

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46 minutes ago, Willsea33 said:

 

Arenado has lead the league in RBI the past 2 years and is playing in a STACKED Colorado lineup. He's also much less of an injury risk than Harper. I don't see how you could possibly think Harper is a better pick than Arenado unless you're blinded by bias. 

 

If anything I am biased toward Arenado. He is my favorite player, and the cornerstone of my keeper team. I think it's a case of floor versus upside. Not to mention, one provides an extra category (steals) that the other does not. 

 

I'm thinking mostly OBP here. And check this out: last year, in Arenado's "monster" season, he was the #18 overall player in OBP leagues. Bryce Harper, in his massive "flop" of a season, finished as the #32 overall player. Bryce Harper is disgusting. 

 

39 minutes ago, Whizzinator said:

 

Or you are in an OBP league---then it's very easy to prefer Harper to Arenado and in fact, that's the most likely result based on ZIPS or other common projection methods.

 

Yep, and I'd assume the majority of posters on this forum play OBP as well. Can we agree that strict batting average is almost archaic at this point? (your player walked? sucks for you! might as well have struck out-- I mean, I suppose it leads to runs sometimes)

 

Arenado is the man, but is he that different than the Encarnacion and Cruz's of the world? Bryce Harper-- while considerably more risky-- has a solid chance to be 1b to Mike Trout's 1b.

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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20 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

Yep, and I'd assume the majority of posters on this forum play OBP as well. Can we agree that strict batting average is almost archaic at this point? (your player walked? sucks for you! might as well have struck out-- I mean, I suppose it leads to runs sometimes)

We do AVG and OPS. So stupid. I'd rather do OBP + AVG or just straight up OPS. Manager won't change it. We just switched over from SV only to SV+H... and he won't get rid of W... :(

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34 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

has a solid chance to be 1b to Mike Trout's 1b.

1a***

 

too late to edit. we really need to change these edit rules. 

I'm too lazy to march in the streets about the Russian takeover, but I'll gladly march about 5-minute edits. 

 

anyway, about Bryce Harper. Personally I don't think it's nuts to take him top-5, but the common struggle I see (or hear on podcasts) is choosing Harper or Donaldson around picks 9-10. Where do you folks fall on that debate? Is Harper's youth and upside enough to give him the edge? Or does Donaldson's absurdly high floor give him the advantage? 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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18 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

1a***

 

too late to edit. we really need to change these edit rules. 

I'm too lazy to march in the streets about the Russian takeover, but I'll gladly march about 5-minute edits. 

 

anyway, about Bryce Harper. Personally I don't think it's nuts to take him top-5, but the common struggle I see (or hear on podcasts) is choosing Harper or Donaldson around picks 9-10. Where do you folks fall on that debate? Is Harper's youth and upside enough to give him the edge? Or does Donaldson's absurdly high floor give him the advantage? 

 

Donaldson doesn't have an insanely high floor in a typical 5 x5 format since he doesn't steal bases and doesn't hit for a high average.  In a league that counts OPS or OBP or BB's that's a different story.

 

I would go with Harper.  Harper has unlimited potential to help you in 5 categories.

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24 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

1a***

 

too late to edit. we really need to change these edit rules. 

I'm too lazy to march in the streets about the Russian takeover, but I'll gladly march about 5-minute edits. 

 

anyway, about Bryce Harper. Personally I don't think it's nuts to take him top-5, but the common struggle I see (or hear on podcasts) is choosing Harper or Donaldson around picks 9-10. Where do you folks fall on that debate? Is Harper's youth and upside enough to give him the edge? Or does Donaldson's absurdly high floor give him the advantage? 

 

I had that dilemma today, actually. I ended up going with Harper over Donaldson. I feel that JD is great and safer than BH, but BH's upside is so tantalizing. 

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Harper has worked himself up as my #6 hitter - obviously #1 is the ceiling. I'm all in on this train.

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I'm very optimistic on him.  But I can't fully wrap my head around his price tag.  50 something dollars in auction leagues.  I mean Trout doesn't go for that much more.  In one league I joined, Trout went for 57 and Harper went for 52.  There should not be a 5 dollar gap between them given how much more consistent Trout has been.  Both have unlimited upside fer sure. But Trout is the much safer play.

Edited by KingJoffrey

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Mr overrated himself, Bryce Harper. Only one season in his 5 year career has he lived up to his potential. In the first round I would prefer someone who has a much more proven track record than a high-upside guy like Harper. 

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4 minutes ago, Willsea33 said:

Mr overrated himself, Bryce Harper. Only one season in his 5 year career has he lived up to his potential. In the first round I would prefer someone who has a much more proven track record than a high-upside guy like Harper. 

 

But who in the first round is reliable?

 

Betts Showed his 5 cat contributions but was only elite last year, not proven.

Altuve never showed 20+ Hr power before

Bryant - Unlimited HR potential but no Sbs or elite BA

 

You are taking a risk no matter what.  The only non risk is Trout and you may be looking at a 60 dollar price tag.

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37 minutes ago, Willsea33 said:

Mr overrated himself, Bryce Harper. Only one season in his 5 year career has he lived up to his potential. In the first round I would prefer someone who has a much more proven track record than a high-upside guy like Harper. 

 

I hate how everyone always points to 2015 -- mind you a more spectacular season at the plate than any active player in the majors has to his credit -- as an outlier. Harper is merely 24 years of age and had the said MVP campaign when he was just 22. The three seasons prior are practically dismissible since the game's best young hitters were still in college, Single or Double A at the time. You couldn't have expected him to be a finished product in his 19-21 aged seasons? He hadn't yet faced a pitcher who was younger than he was! Last year he must have played through an injury and his agent insinuated he did. Still, he was 20/20 with an exceptional .373 OBP. 

 

Since I've been following baseball, I haven't seen a more hyped prospect than Bryce Harper. 2015 was vindication of a generational talent so many touted. Believe me, he has many great years ahead of him. His immense upside and -- yes, realized greatness -- make him a bona-fide first round pick across all formats. 

 

By the way, on the subject of "overrated" didn't the players vote him as such heading into 2015? 

Edited by IceGoat

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5 hours ago, Willsea33 said:

Mr overrated himself, Bryce Harper. Only one season in his 5 year career has he lived up to his potential. In the first round I would prefer someone who has a much more proven track record than a high-upside guy like Harper. 

He's just 8 months older than Trea Turner, who has 1/2 season under his belt. MVP at 22 years old. 

This take is ??????

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1 hour ago, Backdoor Slider said:

He's just 8 months older than Trea Turner, who has 1/2 season under his belt. MVP at 22 years old. 

This take is ??????

Lot of people are hating Bryce Harper because he's only won one MVP award in his young career.  He's still only 24.

The fact remains despite his inconsistencies,  he is a player capable of putting up MVP type numbers again,  and odds are he will.

Going towards the end of the first round seems appropriate for a high floor player.

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18 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

Yep, and I'd assume the majority of posters on this forum play OBP as well. Can we agree that strict batting average is almost archaic at this point? (your player walked? sucks for you! might as well have struck out-- I mean, I suppose it leads to runs sometimes)

 

No, we can't. I am almost certain AVG rather than OBP is the more popular fantasy format by a wide margin. 

 

It's just that OBP leagues are trendy and the basis for virtue signaling on fantasy forums so that group will be disproportionately represented on here (I'd still wager a majority of Rotoworld forum viewers (+ posters) play AVG rather than OBP). 

 

I also don't think the job of fantasy sports are to track what is valuable in real life. More important is providing a competitive format with STANDARDIZED rules and preferably lower levels of luck (i.e. reward skill). I personally don't care whether people use AVG or OBP, although it would be nicer if people gravitated to one rather than the other. 

 

I mean, fantasy football looks at receptions and yards, without looking at drops/targets/YPC. QB FP don't take into account completion percentage. A 40-yard field goal is worth arbitrarily more than a 39-yard field goal. Fantasy basketball tracks steals/blocks which are virtually useless in quantifying a player's defensive impact.

 

I just can't see why someone would actually care about fantasy sports tracking real world value. If that was taken to its logical extreme, leagues would be determined by advanced metrics and holistic qualitative/quantitative assessments of player worth. That sounds miserable to me. 

 

Back on topic - I have Harper in my Top 5. Using Paul Goldschmidt as a template, he has more upside in every single category. Sure, Goldy has the better floor, but if one views last year as an outlier, Harper's floor really isn't that scary. 

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4 hours ago, Rainyy said:

 

No, we can't. I am almost certain AVG rather than OBP is the more popular fantasy format by a wide margin. 

 

It's just that OBP leagues are trendy and the basis for virtue signaling on fantasy forums so that group will be disproportionately represented on here (I'd still wager a majority of Rotoworld forum viewers (+ posters) play AVG rather than OBP). 

 

I also don't think the job of fantasy sports are to track what is valuable in real life. More important is providing a competitive format with STANDARDIZED rules and preferably lower levels of luck (i.e. reward skill). I personally don't care whether people use AVG or OBP, although it would be nicer if people gravitated to one rather than the other. 

 

I mean, fantasy football looks at receptions and yards, without looking at drops/targets/YPC. QB FP don't take into account completion percentage. A 40-yard field goal is worth arbitrarily more than a 39-yard field goal. Fantasy basketball tracks steals/blocks which are virtually useless in quantifying a player's defensive impact.

 

I just can't see why someone would actually care about fantasy sports tracking real world value. If that was taken to its logical extreme, leagues would be determined by advanced metrics and holistic qualitative/quantitative assessments of player worth. That sounds miserable to me. 

 

I'm not trying to be an OBP elitist dick ("my way or the highway")

 

calling batting average "archaic" is a bit harsh. I still pay attention to batting average, and love the mystique of a "batting champion"-- for better or for worse (I see you, Bill Mueller!) 

 

it's just... once you go OBP, you never go back. It's like if someone has been drinking Milwaukee's Best their entire life, then one day someone hands them a Pliny the Elder. (okay maybe not that extreme... how about: dial up to high-speed? Old Navy to Gap?). It's just a higher-quality gauge of a similar statistic. 

 

And it's such an easy switch, even the most casual fantasy players understand it. It's not like Slugging Percentage or something. 

 

I think the best argument against it is holding a romantic view of the classic 5x5. That I totally understand. 

 

I'm not trying to make people feel bad or angry-- all I meant to say is: switching from average to OBP is a great change, and I think the majority of people will love and appreciate it. This season we are also trying out 'net steals' opposed to 'steals'.... we'll see how that goes... 

 

 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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19 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

it's just... once you go OBP, you never go back. It's like if someone has been drinking Milwaukee's Best their entire life, then one day someone hands them a Pliny the Elder. (okay maybe not that extreme... how about: dial up to high-speed? Old Navy to Gap?). It's just a higher-quality gauge of a similar statistic. 

 

Completely fair and just to reiterate - I have no horse in this race. At the end of the day I don't care what statistic we use, provided it makes the format fair and skill-based. I just lament the schism between OBP and AVG leagues because the information-producing industry hasn't quite caught up. As such, OBP is probably a bit daunting for the fantasy novice. As more "experts" begin calibrating their rankings to those settings, I can see the appeal spreading. I personally have the time to invest in these formats, but the friends I play with generally don't. It makes the shift away from "standard" formats challenging. I just wanted to clarify that while OBP may be arguably superior, it is still the less popular format. 

 

On a side note, as someone fortunate enough to drink Pliny the Elder on a semi-regular basis, I appreciate your analogy. I am easily convinced by beer and should embrace OBP. 

 

Edited by Rainyy

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I will now be getting some Pliny the Elder ASAP as I have not yet had the honor. Maybe I should crack my first one on opening day watching Bryce as a first time owner this year, cheers.

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5 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

I will now be getting some Pliny the Elder ASAP as I have not yet had the honor. Maybe I should crack my first one on opening day watching Bryce as a first time owner this year, cheers.

haha good luck with that. it's like trying to find a pinch of salt at a ski resort. 

some folks think it doesn't warrant all the hype. Personally? it's everything I could ever want in a beer. Perfection. 

 

but uh... about Bryce Harper. where does all the power come from? legs? arms? steely eyes? 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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