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Bryce Harper 2017 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I mean it all depends on how you handicap his health, which is really the hardest thing to do.

 

Don't see any reason why he cant go 35-110-110-20 285 with health.  There's a lot safer bets in the first round than Harper, but if draft day is approaching and he's healthy, I'm 100% fine with getting him in the 2nd half of round 1. 

 

Makes sense. I'm personally a huge fan. His upside is immense.

 

At this point, I can't justify a first half of the 1st round pick on him. Give me Trout, Arenado, Bryant, Goldy, Betts, or Machado over him. After that? I think anywhere is fair game for Harper.

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1 minute ago, adifazio27 said:

 

Makes sense. I'm personally a huge fan. His upside is immense.

 

At this point, I can't justify a first half of the 1st round pick on him. Give me Trout, Arenado, Bryant, Goldy, Betts, or Machado over him. After that? I think anywhere is fair game for Harper.

 

I MIGHT take Harper over Machado, but the other ones would surely be drafted first.

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2 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

I MIGHT take Harper over Machado, but the other ones would surely be drafted first.

 

I definitely went back and forth on it a bit in my head... but I figure Machado is a super safe bet for 35/100/90/.290. Generally I lean towards drafting safe in the first round, so I'd probably go there just based on floor. Very slight difference in the two, however.

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On 11/29/2016 at 1:42 PM, adifazio27 said:

 

I definitely went back and forth on it a bit in my head... but I figure Machado is a super safe bet for 35/100/90/.290. Generally I lean towards drafting safe in the first round, so I'd probably go there just based on floor. Very slight difference in the two, however.

 

Machado with the SS eligibility gives him the edge.

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He got married. If this bimbo causes more problems this season, he should really consider a divorce ?

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6 hours ago, Travis Burten said:

A married man is a responsible man. 

 

.330/.450/.650 

50 HR?

and 50 sb. very responsible!

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On 12/19/2016 at 2:51 PM, Travis Burten said:

A married man is a responsible man. 

 

.330/.450/.650 

50 HR?

 

I know the quoted is intended as a joke but the truth is those numbers are LESS than his MVP season minus 8 HRs.

 

When looking at his last 3 years, he's produced .290/.400/.515 over his last 1400 ABs, while stealing 30 bags, and hitting 80 homers. I think this is a good proxy for what to expect in 2017: .290 BA, 27 HR, 10 SB, and lots of R & RBI that come with getting on base at a 40% clip, and slugging well above .500 while hitting in the middle of a really good lineup. He's still VERY young and just 1 year removed from a 40+ HR season, so the potential for a whole lot more is still there.

 

Harper is a steal anywhere past the first 3 or 4 picks.

 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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On 12/19/2016 at 3:51 PM, Travis Burten said:

A married man is a responsible man. 

 

.330/.450/.650 

50 HR?

The only year he hit well was when they weren't together. Just saying 

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What are you guys expecting from big Harp this season? I have seen a few rankings where he isn't even in the top 12. What are your projections for him? Personally, I would be willing to take him in the second half of the first round. Would you? Does anyone have him ranked in the top 5? Chime in.

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24/21 with 86RBI/84R while hitting a measly .243 is such a weird season.

A lot of people in the 2016 thread were shooting me down over the BABIP issue (.264), but I think with 2770 career PA we can safely assume his BABIP is well north of that number...

A couple thoughts:
1) he wasn't fully healthy by the midway point of the season, and the Nats should have put him on the DL
2) the 6 walk game against CHC really messed with him mentally
3) he was extremely unlucky (138th among hitters in 2016)

Pegging his 2017 as: .290BA, 32HR, 21SB, 95RBI, 103R

 

 

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His shoulder was very much injured for a large chunk of the year. He has such an enormous ceiling. He's right around the top 5 for me and if you can somehow obtain him at a price below that, then I think you'll profit.

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Definitely wouldn't take him top 5. More like late first round, IMO. He looked extremely bad for long periods of time last year... his approach was just plain bad as was detailed extensively in last yea'rs thread. I definitely don't see him repeating the SB total but partial rebound seems like the best bet here. Maybe something along the lines of 30-100-10 .275

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It should be obvious to people that he wasn't injured. Harper is too elite to bat .243, even when he's slumping. I don't see him batting any less than .275 this season.

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1 hour ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

It should be obvious to people that he wasn't injured. Harper is too elite to bat .243, even when he's slumping. I don't see him batting any less than .275 this season.

 

:blink:

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If you invest in B.Harper in the middle of the first round, just understand how much risk you're taking.  I think he is a future HOF ballplayer if he has a long, healthy career.  The talent is ridiculous.  None of us here would be surprised if he hit .310/110/40/120/15 in 2017.  He's THAT talented!!  However, we merely need to look at G.Stanton to see how much owners overrate upside versus likely production.  The best prediction of future injuries is past injuries.

 

B.Harper's games played 139(time in minors)/118/100/153/147.  Much of the 147 last year he seemed to be playing hurt.  He has a higher than normal propensity of missing games.

 

B.Haper's batting average per season:  .270/.274/.273/.330/.243

 

B.Harper's HR's per season:  22/20/13/42/24

 

B.Harper's SB's per season:  18/11/2/6/21

 

He has an extremely volatile batting line thus far in his very young career.  It is likely they will ask him to steal less for his health.  He has missed more than a normal amount of games(for a corner OF'er) due to injury in the past.  I prefer to take safe players in the first 3-4 rounds, then go after high upside from that point on.  I'm on board taking G.Stanton for the first time in years if he's a 3rd rounder now instead of going in the 1st round.

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2 hours ago, frankhoward said:

 

:blink:

 

I obviously meant he was injured, not wasn't. It was quite apparent to anyone that watched him play. 

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers

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2 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

I obviously meant he was injured, not wasn't. It was quite apparent to anyone that watched him play. 

 

It's  impossible to tell how much of his performance (or lack thereof) was due to injury. Especially for someone sitting at home watching on TV/checking box scores. 

Edited by absknicks

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48 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

eh my league has been around for 10 years....I will continue to keep hoping he signs with Yankees or Phillies in couple years with a sweet right field porch

 

I prefer that my beloved Phillies target Machado, but I would also be ok with Harper ;)

 

I have Harper number 9-10 overall (after some combination of Trout, Betts, Machado, Arenado, Goldschmidt, Kershaw, Bryant, and Altuve... ahead or right behind Donaldson). To me, Harper has number 1 overall player upside, but injuries whether he misses time or plays compromised are a concern that puts those other players ahead for me. As I posted above, I generally play more conservative in round 1 since getting the number 1 overall player at 10 is good, but getting the number 100+ player at 10 is normally a big problem.

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2 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

I prefer that my beloved Phillies target Machado, but I would also be ok with Harper ;)

 

I have Harper number 9-10 overall (after some combination of Trout, Betts, Machado, Arenado, Goldschmidt, Kershaw, Bryant, and Altuve... ahead or right behind Donaldson). To me, Harper has number 1 overall player upside, but injuries whether he misses time or plays compromised are a concern that puts those other players ahead for me. As I posted above, I generally play more conservative in round 1 since getting the number 1 overall player at 10 is good, but getting the number 100+ player at 10 is normally a big problem.

Well Phillies will have no contracts on books that year

 

Why not both? Think big brotha

Edited by XxxOilOverloadxxX

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