urban2014

Bryce Harper 2017 Outlook

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Not something I personally talk about a ton but in an OBP league where does he rank for you guys? I think he's my #1 player not named Mike Trout. 

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15 minutes ago, taobball said:

Not something I personally talk about a ton but in an OBP league where does he rank for you guys? I think he's my #1 player not named Mike Trout. 

 

Only other guy id consider would be Goldscmidt. 

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2 minutes ago, Michael Bluth said:

You guys really gotta stop this or I'm liable to take him way too early

 

What's too early though if he goes .315/45/20...

 

;)

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

What's too early though if he goes .315/45/20...

 

;)

Two great at bats already by Harper.  A bomb off a lefty and an opposite field hit in his second at bat.

He looks primed for a big season.

 

If he goes late first round in your draft you might look back and think,  what was I thinking.

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The problem with him is his health. That's what separates him from a top 3 pick. I would gladly take him around pick 10 if that would be my slot. Before that I'll go for reliable production.

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Harper was being taken almost interchangeably with Trout (either #1 or #2 overall) just 1 year ago. People are putting way too much weight on a down year/small sample size of PAs (2016). If you combined his last 3 years, consider the ages in which he produced those numbers, you would be crazy to be sleeping on Harper this season. You also have to consider just how unlucky he was in 2016 (BABIP was .50+ points below his career).

 

I really like his "fans" projection this year (.282, 33, 99(R), 115(RBI), 16) .. and still don't think it's doing his upside justice.

 

Harper to me is the best 'value' pick in the first round after Mike Trout. In a snake draft I'm hoping to get the #1 overall pick (Trout), but if not, i'm hoping for a draft spot somewhere between 6-9 so I can get the #2 overall player (Harper), and then get a top pick in the 2nd round. 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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wanted to add this note into previous post but ran out of edit time:

 

His top comparables through age 23 (baseball reference) is full of hall of famers. Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey, etc. And most of those guys best #s in their careers came between their age 24-29 seasons (the thick of their prime).

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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18 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Harper was being taken almost interchangeably with Trout (either #1 or #2 overall) just 1 year ago. People are putting way too much weight on a down year/small sample size of PAs (2016). If you combined his last 3 years, consider the ages in which he produced those numbers, you would be crazy to be sleeping on Harper this season. You also have to consider just how unlucky he was in 2016 (BABIP was .50+ points below his career).

 

I really like his "fans" projection this year (.282, 33, 99(R), 115(RBI), 16) .. and still don't think it's doing his upside justice.

 

Harper to me is the best 'value' pick in the first round after Mike Trout. In a snake draft I'm hoping to get the #1 overall pick (Trout), but if not, i'm hoping for a draft spot somewhere between 6-9 so I can get the #2 overall player (Harper), and then get a top pick in the 2nd round. 

 

If you combine his last three years, he doesn't even sniff first round numbers.

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18 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

If you combine his last three years, he doesn't even sniff first round numbers.

 

his 2015 season clearly was ... and we can get into a debate as we've had in the past ... but the numbers I'm referring to aren't his 5-cat stats ... i'm talking more about his underlying peripherals that support big time 5 category production. No active player other than Mike Trout has a comparable age 20-23 mlb track record ... and age is everything when it comes to a player's upside.

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5 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

his 2015 season clearly was ... and we can get into a debate as we've had in the past ... but the numbers I'm referring to aren't his 5-cat stats ... i'm talking more about his underlying peripherals that support big time 5 category production. No active player other than Mike Trout has a comparable age 20-23 mlb track record ... and age is everything when it comes to a player's upside.

Age relative stats don't tell me anything about a player's floor. His floor is incredibly low. If you draft Harper in the first and he hits like he has 80% of his career, you lost your league.

Also, comparing Harper's age 20-23 stats to Trout's shows me you haven't even bothered to look them up.

And you haven't pointed out a single one of these peripheral measures that supposedly make Harper a first rounder

Edited by mysonx3

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7 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Age relative stats don't tell me anything about a player's floor. His floor is incredibly low. If you draft Harper in the first and he hits like he has 80% of his career, you lost your league.

 

Harper has a career wRC+ of 140 (40% better than the average major leaguer through his age 19-23 seasons) ... age 19-23 is where most major league regulars are climbing the minor league ladder. We already know what Harper's floor is. What we don't know yet is how high the ceiling is.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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Just now, EmbargoLifted said:

 

Harper has a career wRC+  of 140 (40% better offensive player than the average major leaguer) through his age 19-23 seasons ... we already know what his floor is. What we don't know yet is how high the ceiling is. 

You can't possibly think wRC+ is meaningful for fantasy, can you?

And by the way, when did a player's floor become equivalent to what he's done for his career? That might be his baseline (if you completely ignore how he got there), but his floor is far lower than that. Far.

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If a player performs below what you say his floor is for 4/5 seasons, then you've judged his floor horribly wrong

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14 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

You can't possibly think wRC+ is meaningful for fantasy, can you?

And by the way, when did a player's floor become equivalent to what he's done for his career? That might be his baseline (if you completely ignore how he got there), but his floor is far lower than that. Far.

He clearly said that he's not looking at 5 category stats, but underlying peripherals. wRC+ is a great stat to measure a guy's offensive production. 

I also disagree with "if he hits the way he has 80% of his career, you lose your league." This is just plain false. Whether it's .243/24/21 or .272/20/11, these lines didn't lose you a league. Leagues are won when you're able to steal Villars & Seguras and Trumbos mid rounds. And yes, an elite contributor in the 1st helps. But it isn't mandatory. 

As far as Bryce this year, his 5 year, 162 average is a good baseline to me. .279/102/30/82/14

That looks like KBryant, but we all know he's fluctuated (mostly due to missed time). So Bryce is going exactly where he should. Picks 9-12 in the 1st round. 

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I don't see major downside .. i see a guy with a high enough floor to justify his current ADP .. but with a ceiling that could make him the #1 overall player by end of the upcoming season. His offensive output isn't a question .. again his age related performance puts him among the historical greats. He's also locked into the top of one of the better projected lineups in baseball so counting stats shouldn't be an issue. 

 

The only question is how many plate appearances/games played ... he's young enough to shake off injury/durability issues in the past and take that part of his game to another level. He's also averaged 150 games the last two years. 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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I think everyone understands the talent, but there are plenty of talented players, who even with an MVP season under their belt would not be sniffing the 1st round given his performance/injuries in the other 3.  But this guy is just constantly over-valued in where he is picked, and other than the MVP year, he has disappointed those who picked him, yet people continue to take the gamble.  As I have said, I love the talent, and if maybe I was on the end 2nd 3rd round type gamble play, I would take him, but just dont get those taking him in the first round.  Very little margin for value there.  

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8 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

i see a guy with a high enough floor to justify his current ADP

What do you think his floor is?

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34 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

He clearly said that he's not looking at 5 category stats, but underlying peripherals. wRC+ is a great stat to measure a guy's offensive production. 

wRC+ is not an underlying peripheral. It's a surface stat.

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2 minutes ago, parrothead said:

I think everyone understands the talent, but there are plenty of talented players, who even with an MVP season under their belt would not be sniffing the 1st round given his performance/injuries in the other 3.  But this guy is just constantly over-valued in where he is picked, and other than the MVP year, he has disappointed those who picked him, yet people continue to take the gamble.  As I have said, I love the talent, and if maybe I was on the end 2nd 3rd round type gamble play, I would take him, but just dont get those taking him in the first round.  Very little margin for value there.  

 

I agree that Harper was overvalued the first couple of years he was in the league. People were putting way too much weight on his prospect hype. 

 

The only way you could be disappointed in Harper over the last few years though is if you look at seasons in silos (which is in correct). The entire track record matters. 3 seasons of performance is way more important than just 1. When you look at Harper's performance in this light, AND take into account his ages in which he produces those numbers (again on aggregate) he's been one of the best players in the entire history of the league through his 23rd birthday. His comparables are either hall of famers, or guys who had MVP type seasons in their prime. This is extremely important context that suggests a massive upside to hsi game we haven't seen .. but even if he stays the same player (career .280/.380/500 player) he'll justify his current ADP.

 

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2 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

The only way you could be disappointed in Harper over the last few years though is if you look at seasons in silos (which is in correct).

Looking at seasons individually isn't incorrect, it's called playing fantasy baseball.

Edited by mysonx3

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2 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

wRC+ is not an underlying peripheral. It's a surface stat.

 

Can we go another level deeper? sure .. but wRC+ has high enough levels of correlation given the context of sample sizes we are discussing (the entirety of Harper's 4 year career up to this point). 

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Just now, EmbargoLifted said:

 

Can we go another level deeper? sure .. but wRC+ has high enough levels of correlation given the context of sample sizes we are discussing (the entirety of Harper's 4 year career up to this point). 

Doesn't make wRC+ a peripheral, and also doesn't make it a fantasy relevant stat.

Better for analyzing real baseball? Yes. But wRC+ has zero use in fantasy except predicting playing time.

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