urban2014

Bryce Harper 2017 Outlook

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, mysonx3 said:

Looking at seasons individually isn't incorrect, it's called playing fantasy baseball.

 

Fantasy baseball is rarely ever about what a player has done .. that isn't important .. all we care about is what a player's true talent level is and what he's capable of doing *going forward*. Expanding the sample size to multiple seasons gives us a much clearer picture. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, EmbargoLifted said:

 

Fantasy baseball is rarely ever about what a player has done .. that isn't important .. all we care about is what a player's true talent level is and what he's capable of doing *going forward*. Expanding the sample size to multiple seasons gives us a much clearer picture. 

And refusing to look at seasons as seasons takes away our ability to look at variability, which in turn takes away our ability to look at floor or ceiling.

And you still haven't pointed out which peripherals he has that point to him being a 5x5 stud, and you still haven't pointed out what you think his floor is despite saying "we know what his floor is"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

Doesn't make wRC+ a peripheral, and also doesn't make it a fantasy relevant stat.

Better for analyzing real baseball? Yes. But wRC+ has zero use in fantasy except predicting playing time.

 

wRC+ was being used in context of putting Harper's performance on an even playing field so we could put his age 19-23 seasons in historical context. 

 

wRC+ is derived from wOBA .. wOBA is weighted based on the results/outcome of every plate appearances (a walk relative to a single relative to a double relative to a triple and so on) .. there's a major correlation between a player's projected wOBA and where they are being drafted in fantasy.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

there's a major correlation between a player's projected wOBA and where they are being drafted in fantasy.

But that correlation is far smaller than the correlation between their actual fantasy numbers and their draft position. Why? Because wOBA is useless for evaluating 5x5 production.

Of course they correlate. They're both trying to measure player production. But that doesn't mean one predicts the other - they're just collinear

Edited by mysonx3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Expanding the sample size to multiple seasons gives us a much clearer picture. 

A picture of a player not even sniffing first round consideration

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are the top 10 player's in projected wOBA in 2017:

 

1. Mike Trout

2. Bryce Harper

3. Joey Votto

4. Miguel Cabrera

5. Anthony Rizzo

6. Paul Goldschmidt

7. Josh Donaldson

8. Giancarlo Stanton

9. Kris Bryant

10. Nolan Arenado

BONUS 11. Mookie Betts

 

Players with high wOBA get on base more, hit for more power, produce less outs per plate appearance, and are generally more productive offensive players. Again, i wasn't using wOBA to talk about Harper's fantasy value, I was using the stat to put his age-related-production in historical context when making an argument about his upside. But now that we are in a debate about something completely separate .. as you can tell from the above list there's a strong correlation between wOBA and the first round of a fantasy draft (players that produce high wOBA produce a ton of roto value).

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A full season of healthy Harper...

Floor: .250/80/20/80/10

Ceiling: .330/120/50/120/20

Split the difference: .290/100/35/100/15

Floor guy won't win you any leagues but he certainly won't lose you any either if you properly manage the rest of your team.

Ceiling guy would easily be the best player in baseball and he has the legit speed and power to do it if everything fell into place.

Split the difference guy is still a first round pick for sure.

I'd be very happy with split the difference guy knowing that ceiling guy is a possibility, as is floor guy.

Edited by Dislimb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

wRC+ is not an underlying peripheral. It's a surface stat.

 Its a surface stat in real baseball..but in 5X5 the 5 cats are the only surface stats.. So i'm not sure what else you would call it for fantasy? i'd probably call it peripheral too in that sense.

 

As for its usefulness. Harper had 170 R/RBI last year despite a sub 250 BA and sub 25 HR year.  Typically that BA/HR profile doesn't net that much run production. So that is where it has some use in projections.  Since it does tell you who the best pure hitters are..and that does have some use in terms of fantasy value..because the best pure hitters tend to gravitate to the best lineup spots(AND STICK!) to produce the good R/RBI numbers, more PAs for cumulative chances at all counting stats..

 

Not optimal method of total valuation not the same thing as useless..

Edited by Slatykamora

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Dislimb said:

A full season of healthy Harper...

Floor: .250/80/20/80/10

Ceiling: .330/120/50/120/20

Split the difference: .290/100/35/100/15

Floor guy won't win you any leagues but he certainly won't lose you any either if you properly manage the rest of your team.

Ceiling guy would easily be the best player in baseball and he has the legit speed and power to do it if everything fell into place.

Split the difference guy is still a first round pick for sure.

I'd be very happy with split the difference guy knowinh that ceiling guy is a possibility, as is floor guy.

 

I don't see anything in Harper's track record to suggest he'll ever hit anywhere near .250 again .. he's a career .280 hitter through his 23rd birthday. His walk, bb, and contact rates don't support that low of a batting average. The only way a .250 floor makes sense is if you look at last season's performance in isolation. But that is just faulty forecasting methodology. 

 

A fair/conservative range for Harper to me based on the collective of his major league track record:

 

Floor: 600 PA .280, 28 HR, 85 RBI, 85 R, 14 SB

Ceiling: 650 PA .286, 35 HR, 120 RBI, 100 R, 16 SB

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Slatykamora said:

 Its a surface stat in real baseball..but in 5X5 the 5 cats are the only surface stats.. So i'm not sure what else you would call it for fantasy? i'd probably call it peripheral too in that sense.

 

As for its usefulness. Harper had 170 R/RBI last year despite a sub 250 BA and sub 25 HR year.  Typically that BA/HR profile doesn't net that much run production. So that is where it has some use in projections.  Since it does tell you who the best pure hitters are..and that does have some use in terms of fantasy value..because the best pure hitters tend to gravitate to the best lineup spots and produce the good R/RBI numbers, more PAs for cumulative chances at all counting stats..

 

Not optimal method of total valuation not the same thing as useless..

I guess it's semantics, but to me if you're calling something "underlying" that means it has predictive value

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Here are the top 10 player's in projected wOBA in 2017:

 

1. Mike Trout

2. Bryce Harper

3. Joey Votto

4. Miguel Cabrera

5. Anthony Rizzo

6. Paul Goldschmidt

7. Josh Donaldson

8. Giancarlo Stanton

9. Kris Bryant

10. Nolan Arenado

BONUS 11. Mookie Betts

 

Players with high wOBA get on base more, hit for more power, produce less outs per plate appearance, and are generally more productive offensive players. Again, i wasn't using wOBA to talk about Harper's fantasy value, I was using the stat to put his age-related-production in historical context when making an argument about his upside. But now that we are in a debate about something completely separate .. as you can tell from the above list there's a strong correlation between wOBA and the first round of a fantasy draft (players that produce high wOBA produce a ton of roto value).

 

Because they're collinear, but because wOBA predicts fantasy value

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

I don't see anything in Harper's track record to suggest he'll ever hit anywhere near .250 again .. he's a career .280 hitter through his 23rd birthday. His walk, bb, and contact rates don't support that low of a batting average. The only way a .250 floor makes sense is if you look at last season's performance in isolation. But that is just faulty forecasting methodology. 

 

A fair/conservative range for Harper to me based on the collective of his major league track record:

 

Floor: 600 PA .280, 28 HR, 85 RBI, 85 R, 14 SB

Ceiling: 650 PA .286, 35 HR, 120 RBI, 100 R, 16 SB

 

Suggesting that the floor for his AVG is .250 is any sillier than suggesting that his ceiling for HR is 35 is pretty outlandish.

Edited by Dislimb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

I don't see anything in Harper's track record to suggest he'll ever hit anywhere near .250 again .. he's a career .280 hitter through his 23rd birthday. His walk, bb, and contact rates don't support that low of a batting average. The only way a .250 floor makes sense is if you look at last season's performance in isolation. But that is just faulty forecasting methodology. 

 

A fair/conservative range for Harper to me based on the collective of his major league track record:

 

Floor: 600 PA .280, 28 HR, 85 RBI, 85 R, 14 SB

Ceiling: 650 PA .286, 35 HR, 120 RBI, 100 R, 16 SB

 

If .280 is his floor, how has he had four seasons worse than that (out of five)?

If 28 HR is his floor, how has he had four seasons worse than that?

If 85 runs is his floor, how does he have three seasons worse than that?

If 85 RBI is his floor, how does he have two seasons worse than that?

If 14 SB is his floor, how does he have three seasons worse than that?

You just said his floor is his second best season of his career. That's just factually incorrect. You don't seem to have any concept of the variance involved in baseball if you think his average is a lock to fall within a .006 window.

You need to learn what floors and ceilings are, because you basically just said it's impossible for 2017 to be anything other than the second best season of his career - no more, no less. Again, that's factually incorrect

Edited by mysonx3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was giving a regressed/conservative high and low range in the Harper projection. Relative to the rest of the league (if i projected the player's the same way) Harper's 35 HRs would put him somewhere in the top 5 in baseball. 

 

Also, my projections have nothing to do with years/seasons ... Based on all of the available data on Harper, I believe his BA range is somewhere between .280-.286 going forward. These projections are my own intuition combined with the multiple systems used on Fangraphs player profiles (Fans, ZiPS, Steamer, ZiPS+Steamer+playing time estimates, etc.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

I was giving a regressed/conservative high and low range in the Harper projection. Relative to the rest of the league (if i projected the player's the same way) Harper's 35 HRs would put him somewhere in the top 5 in baseball. 

 

Also, my projections have nothing to do with years/seasons ... Based on all of the available data on Harper, I believe his BA range is somewhere between .280-.286 going forward. These projections are my own intuition combined with the multiple systems used on Fangraphs player profiles (Fans, ZiPS, Steamer, ZiPS+Steamer+playing time estimates, etc.)

If you think that's his floor, you're literally denying that any season of his career happened except 2015. His floor is supposed to be the worst that can reasonably happen. If a guy is worse than your floor 80% of the time, then your floor is just way, way off.

You just don't know what a floor or ceiling is if you think you're supposed to regress floor and ceiling projections.

Edited by mysonx3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Also, my projections have nothing to do with years/seasons

This right here tells me all I need to know about whether your projections hold any weight.

News flash: baseball is played season by season. To ignore that in your analysis is to make your analysis wilfully ignorant of actual baseball.

Ironically enough, your beloved projection systems use the season by season data you rail against.

Edited by mysonx3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The projection systems look at seasons to make adjustments for age related performance (e.g. what a player did relative to his peers at each age of his development) and to time stamp performance. E.g. this past year's/age performance is more important than the year before, etc.

 

What's far more important and conducive to accurate projections is having access to large enough sample size to forecast a player's true talent level. That's what projection systems are doing ... they are not trying to say "this is what a player's upcoming season is going to look like" as much as they are trying to say "based on all of the data we have access to on this player up to this point in his career, this is the player's true talent level at this moment"

 

... as more data comes in, the player's forecast is changing daily/dynamically in the eyes of the projection system (most recent performance is always weighted heaviest). But it takes A LOT of plate appearances for the "true talent level" of the player to change significantly in the eyes of the projection systems (especially for players in the middle of their prime with thousands of plate appearances to their credit). Which is why I laugh when people are throwing a fit over a few hundred plate appearances of performance here on the forums only a month or two into the season. Pronouncing players duds/trading them away for nothing/etc. and anointing some prospect up in the majors for 2 months a first round pick/god because of a hot couple of months of good performance.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Harper has legitimate 50 HR upside. Only Stanton has a power ceiling that high IMO and Harper is so much more disciplined and has better plate vision. The reason he only hit 42 in 2015 was because often times he wasn't getting pitches to hit and it translated into a league high in walks due to his elite discipline. Harper's triple slash line along with 80+ XBH in 2015 were the closest thing we've had to Bonds as far as a contact/power/discipline combo since, well, Bonds.

Edited by Dislimb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a Nats follower I love Bryce. I'd like him regardless because he's a good player. He does, however, get hurt. He's been hurt in 3 out of the last four seasons (albeit playing through an injury last season). His single healthy season? The best player in baseball. Floor: Injury - league average outfielder with high walk rate, Ceiling: 650 ABs at 1100 OPS. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

I agree that Harper was overvalued the first couple of years he was in the league. People were putting way too much weight on his prospect hype. 

 

The only way you could be disappointed in Harper over the last few years though is if you look at seasons in silos (which is in correct). The entire track record matters. 3 seasons of performance is way more important than just 1. When you look at Harper's performance in this light, AND take into account his ages in which he produces those numbers (again on aggregate) he's been one of the best players in the entire history of the league through his 23rd birthday. His comparables are either hall of famers, or guys who had MVP type seasons in their prime. This is extremely important context that suggests a massive upside to hsi game we haven't seen .. but even if he stays the same player (career .280/.380/500 player) he'll justify his current ADP.

 

Sorry but not sure what league you are in that 3-years matters?  If a guy took him No.1 last year, he was disappointed.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...