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Bryce Harper 2017 Outlook

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1 minute ago, parrothead said:

Sorry but not sure what league you are in that 3-years matters?  If a guy took him No.1 last year, he was disappointed.  

 

His point though is at this point, last year doesn't matter. It's about projecting future returns. And to do that, there are better ways to see what kind of offensive player a guy is than "What did he do the one previous season." It's "What type of hitter is this guy, so I can project what he'll be for me this season." And a stat like wRC+ gives us a nice snapshot at his offensive production. Especially for a guy who has had injury issues. 

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12 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

 

His point though is at this point, last year doesn't matter. It's about projecting future returns. And to do that, there are better ways to see what kind of offensive player a guy is than "What did he do the one previous season." It's "What type of hitter is this guy, so I can project what he'll be for me this season." And a stat like wRC+ gives us a nice snapshot at his offensive production. Especially for a guy who has had injury issues. 

I undestand its about future returns, my point with Harper is that he never brings good value, and given his injury history, his crap year last year where at one point they almost sent him to the minors or were discussing exactly what to do with Bryce a guy coming off that year should NEVER cost you a 1st round pick.  He may very well produce good numbers this year, Im just not willing to pay near full price to find out.  

 

To me drafts are a lot about value, its like buying stocks.  If a company had a great fiscal year, great earnings, great company, stock price is $150 a share then the next year, the product tanks stock now at like $98 a share, with Bryce Harper, its like people are saying even though the stock is currently worth 98 a share, I will pay $150 because of future returns?  Thats what I feel people do with Bryce Harper almost every year, and really only last season when he was coming off the MVP season did paying the price they were make any sense.   Saying the only player you would take in an OBP league over him is Trout is just rosy colored glasses mancrush Byrce Bryce Baby t-shirt wearing fantasy land.  Its paying $150 a share for the stock worth 98.  

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Anyone not named Trout taken at number one can be pretty much a disappointment. Had Kershaw and frankly was disappointed in what value I got back in H2H as to much time missed because of injury.

 

How youvfeel about Harper and paying for something that hasn't really been there is why I never drafted Stanton or Tulo. When taking over a team thatvhad either ghry were the first two traded.

 

I didn't lose any league I had Harper in but also didn't take him as a first pick in the draft

Edited by Low and Away

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17 minutes ago, parrothead said:

I undestand its about future returns, my point with Harper is that he never brings good value, and given his injury history, his crap year last year where at one point they almost sent him to the minors or were discussing exactly what to do with Bryce a guy coming off that year should NEVER cost you a 1st round pick.  He may very well produce good numbers this year, Im just not willing to pay near full price to find out.  

 

To me drafts are a lot about value, its like buying stocks.  If a company had a great fiscal year, great earnings, great company, stock price is $150 a share then the next year, the product tanks stock now at like $98 a share, with Bryce Harper, its like people are saying even though the stock is currently worth 98 a share, I will pay $150 because of future returns?  Thats what I feel people do with Bryce Harper almost every year, and really only last season when he was coming off the MVP season did paying the price they were make any sense.   Saying the only player you would take in an OBP league over him is Trout is just rosy colored glasses mancrush Byrce Bryce Baby t-shirt wearing fantasy land.  Its paying $150 a share for the stock worth 98.  

 

When you say things "he NEVER brings good value..." <Lie> and "at one point last year they almost sent him to the minors..." <Lie>, it's hard to think you're able to look at things objectively here. 

1) I believe it was @taobball who said he'd take him #2 in OBP leagues. So you're mixing up posters. 

2) I like your stocks analogy. But I think it's a touch off. It was once $150 (see, don't say never. He did once bring good value). Last year it was $98. So what you're paying this year (say pick 10-12) is about $125. I think at that spot, it takes into account potential to not reach that value, but also the potential to be worth more. 

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27 minutes ago, parrothead said:

I undestand its about future returns, my point with Harper is that he never brings good value, and given his injury history, his crap year last year where at one point they almost sent him to the minors or were discussing exactly what to do with Bryce a guy coming off that year should NEVER cost you a 1st round pick.  He may very well produce good numbers this year, Im just not willing to pay near full price to find out.  

 

To me drafts are a lot about value, its like buying stocks.  If a company had a great fiscal year, great earnings, great company, stock price is $150 a share then the next year, the product tanks stock now at like $98 a share, with Bryce Harper, its like people are saying even though the stock is currently worth 98 a share, I will pay $150 because of future returns?  Thats what I feel people do with Bryce Harper almost every year, and really only last season when he was coming off the MVP season did paying the price they were make any sense.   Saying the only player you would take in an OBP league over him is Trout is just rosy colored glasses mancrush Byrce Bryce Baby t-shirt wearing fantasy land.  Its paying $150 a share for the stock worth 98.  

 

Lol did you own Bryce in any OBP leagues? Are you really selling me on the concept that a .373 OBP with 24/21 is some terrible downside? That's a joke mate. Sorry. Plain and simple. When a guy walks 17% of the time, he's a huge boost in OBP leagues. A HUGE boost. I don't expect him to hit worse than .243 or fewer than 24 HRs, but if he can do that and finish with a .373 OBP and a 20/20 season than he has an insane amount of floor. In an OBP league he isn't even low floor high upside, he's strong floor and upside that Rivals only Trout period, because those are the guys walking 17%. I love Mookie, but his BB% can't remotely f--- with what those two are doing in an OBP league.  

 

Rosy-colored classes... lol, that's a clown thought bro. 

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9 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Lol did you own Bryce in any OBP leagues? Are you really selling me on the concept that a .373 OBP with 24/21 is some terrible downside? That's a joke mate. Sorry. Plain and simple. When a guy walks 17% of the time, he's a huge boost in OBP leagues. A HUGE boost. I don't expect him to hit worse than .243 or fewer than 24 HRs, but if he can do that and finish with a .373 OBP and a 20/20 season than he has an insane amount of floor. In an OBP league he isn't even low floor high upside, he's strong floor and upside that Rivals only Trout period, because those are the guys walking 17%. I love Mookie, but his BB% can't remotely f--- with what those two are doing in an OBP league.  

 

Rosy-colored classes... lol, that's a clown thought bro. 

If you took him 2nd or 1st overall last year, you were disappointed, yes. 

 

Arenado had ..362OBP and hit was 40 and 140?   Donaldson had a .404OBP and had more HR/RBI and blew Bryce's doors off by what 50 runs scored?  Coming off the season he had, he should not cost you a first round pick, period.  That is all I am saying, not saying he is gonna be crap, not saying he wont even be MVP, but there are questions and he shouldnt be.  Again, drafts are about value, and 1st round for Bryce is not good value.  

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19 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

 

When you say things "he NEVER brings good value..." <Lie> and "at one point last year they almost sent him to the minors..." <Lie>, it's hard to think you're able to look at things objectively here. 

1) I believe it was @taobball who said he'd take him #2 in OBP leagues. So you're mixing up posters. 

2) I like your stocks analogy. But I think it's a touch off. It was once $150 (see, don't say never. He did once bring good value). Last year it was $98. So what you're paying this year (say pick 10-12) is about $125. I think at that spot, it takes into account potential to not reach that value, but also the potential to be worth more. 

When on draft day has he ever been a good value?  Actually his rookie year, he was probably good value, because he came up earlier than some anticipated and was rookie of the year.  So in a re-draft league, in that year, he probably was a good value.  Obviously his MVP year, he was a good return on investment that year, but still given the two injury impacted years he was going like late 1st/early 2nd going into that year, so he brought a good return, but at the time of the draft given his history to that point, its not good value.  

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2 minutes ago, parrothead said:

If you took him 2nd or 1st overall last year, you were disappointed, yes. 

 

Arenado had ..362OBP and hit was 40 and 140?   Donaldson had a .404OBP and had more HR/RBI and blew Bryce's doors off by what 50 runs scored?  Coming off the season he had, he should not cost you a first round pick, period.  That is all I am saying, not saying he is gonna be crap, not saying he wont even be MVP, but there are questions and he shouldnt be.  Again, drafts are about value, and 1st round for Bryce is not good value.  

 

In an OBP first round price is not a bad value. Period. Dot. End-of-discussion. That's absolute lunacy. 

 

So because there were better players you were disappointed? Were you disappointed because you drafted Trout over Betts in 5x5 too? Is that really the argument we're getting into? When your worst case scenario is being a top 25 hitter and a .270/30 line probably makes you top 5, you're a first round pick. 

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7 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

In an OBP first round price is not a bad value. Period. Dot. End-of-discussion. That's absolute lunacy. 

 

So because there were better players you were disappointed? Were you disappointed because you drafted Trout over Betts in 5x5 too? Is that really the argument we're getting into? When your worst case scenario is being a top 25 hitter and a .270/30 line probably makes you top 5, you're a first round pick. 

He was 21st in OBP, not exactly elite level, not like he was over .400 or something.  I will be the first to admit, OBP is not a majority of what I play, probably less than 10% of my fantasy existence its been a factor, though looking at it, I guess my questions would be:

 

* What levels are elite and what levels are above avg.   So in roto, I generally shoot for top 3 spot production for my team, so that number has dropped, last year 3rd in avg was like .268 or something, but lets say .275 is top 3 level,  What is that level for OBP?  I get that probably if you look at what players have to average across the board to finish top 3, that if you were looking at OBP he probably was right at or slightly above that avg across the board overall last year, but when you draft a guy 2nd or 1st overall, you need him to be way above avg to carry the bottom of the roster to those averages.  

 

So 2016 numbers were the season you were expecting?  

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22 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

In an OBP first round price is not a bad value. Period. Dot. End-of-discussion. That's absolute lunacy. 

 

So because there were better players you were disappointed? Were you disappointed because you drafted Trout over Betts in 5x5 too? Is that really the argument we're getting into? When your worst case scenario is being a top 25 hitter and a .270/30 line probably makes you top 5, you're a first round pick. 

There will always be better players, thats not the point, but when you draft a guy 1st or 2nd overall, you want to see him put up numbers that can elevate your lower guys to where your totals need to be.  

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5 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

The projection systems look at seasons to make adjustments for age related performance (e.g. what a player did relative to his peers at each age of his development) and to time stamp performance. E.g. this past year's/age performance is more important than the year before, etc.

 

What's far more important and conducive to accurate projections is having access to large enough sample size to forecast a player's true talent level. That's what projection systems are doing ... they are not trying to say "this is what a player's upcoming season is going to look like" as much as they are trying to say "based on all of the data we have access to on this player up to this point in his career, this is the player's true talent level at this moment"

 

... as more data comes in, the player's forecast is changing daily/dynamically in the eyes of the projection system (most recent performance is always weighted heaviest). But it takes A LOT of plate appearances for the "true talent level" of the player to change significantly in the eyes of the projection systems (especially for players in the middle of their prime with thousands of plate appearances to their credit). Which is why I laugh when people are throwing a fit over a few hundred plate appearances of performance here on the forums only a month or two into the season. Pronouncing players duds/trading them away for nothing/etc. and anointing some prospect up in the majors for 2 months a first round pick/god because of a hot couple of months of good performance.

 

1. Projection systems don't update daily.

2. What you're telling me is that projection systems are incapable of figuring out a player's talent level until they have several years of data. That makes them completely useless. To be successful in fantasy you have to figure it out LONG before then.

3. Projection systems don't use all the available data. They only use three years of data, and even then they don't use any Statcast data, pitch type peripherals, etc.

You don't even know how these systems work

Edited by mysonx3

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3 minutes ago, parrothead said:

He was 21st in OBP, not exactly elite level, not like he was over .400 or something.  I will be the first to admit, OBP is not a majority of what I play, probably less than 10% of my fantasy existence its been a factor, though looking at it, I guess my questions would be:

 

* What levels are elite and what levels are above avg.   So in roto, I generally shoot for top 3 spot production for my team, so that number has dropped, last year 3rd in avg was like .268 or something, but lets say .275 is top 3 level,  What is that level for OBP?  I get that probably if you look at what players have to average across the board to finish top 3, that if you were looking at OBP he probably was right at or slightly above that avg across the board overall last year, but when you draft a guy 2nd or 1st overall, you need him to be way above avg to carry the bottom of the roster to those averages.  

 

So 2016 numbers were the season you were expecting?  

 

That's not what I'm saying... you're saying he's 21st like that's the most awful thing in the world... if a dude can have an awful season in terms of Power and BA based on what we expect and finish 21st in a league he's got a massively high floor. Tha'ts why he's my #2 in OBP leagues. You can't argue a 17% and 19% BB% the last two years. It's like adding a category that he's for sure going to finish 2nd in, and you already have 20/20. 

 

There were 7 Hitters with a .400 OBP last year. There were 3 with a .415+ OBP, which is around what I expect bryce to do if he hits even .275. If you can be T20th in OBP in a year everyone tlaks about as being awful that's pretty damn good in the cap.

 

Just now, parrothead said:

There will always be better players, thats not the point, but when you draft a guy 1st or 2nd overall, you want to see him put up numbers that can elevate your lower guys to where your totals need to be.  

 

And I expect an average Bryce season to do that in an OBP league. When his worse season is pretty good and his best season is #1 by a wide margin then I'm willin gto buy into bryce at #2. That's not rosy colored glasses, my guy. 

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13 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

That's not what I'm saying... you're saying he's 21st like that's the most awful thing in the world... if a dude can have an awful season in terms of Power and BA based on what we expect and finish 21st in a league he's got a massively high floor. Tha'ts why he's my #2 in OBP leagues. You can't argue a 17% and 19% BB% the last two years. It's like adding a category that he's for sure going to finish 2nd in, and you already have 20/20. 

 

There were 7 Hitters with a .400 OBP last year. There were 3 with a .415+ OBP, which is around what I expect bryce to do if he hits even .275. If you can be T20th in OBP in a year everyone tlaks about as being awful that's pretty damn good in the cap.

 

 

And I expect an average Bryce season to do that in an OBP league. When his worse season is pretty good and his best season is #1 by a wide margin then I'm willin gto buy into bryce at #2. That's not rosy colored glasses, my guy. 

Im not saying its a bad thing, Im just not sure how it elevates him.  I see a name like Brandon Belt, in my 5x5 14-team league, he is pretty much low single digit price fodder, would the fact he is very good in OBP make him a starting 1b in a 12-teamer that uses OBP?   Im not comparing Belt to Harper I am just trying to have a better understanding about how OBP changes a guys value.  Where would you see Belt in the 1B rankings of an OBP league vs an AVG league?  

 

Again, you may be right he may be awesome this year, but so might a lot of people who had much better seasons than Harper last year and other years as well, all I am saying is that he is not a good VALUE at No.2, may very well turn out to be the case he produces that value, but its like buying a house over market price, may turn out to be a good investment, but the purchase price given what that house looks like right now, is not a good value.  That is the only thing Im saying, the value right now just isnt there the way it is with some coming off down years historically, especially in baseball.  

Edited by parrothead

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3 minutes ago, parrothead said:

Im not saying its a bad thing, Im just not sure how it elevates him.  I see a name like Brandon Belt, in my 5x5 14-team league, he is pretty much low single digit price fodder, would the fact he is very good in OBP make him a starting 1b in a 12-teamer that uses OBP?   Im not comparing Belt to Harper I am just trying to have a better understanding about how OBP changes a guys value.  Where would you see Belt in the 1B rankings of an OBP league vs an AVG league?  

 

Yes. Absolutely. I've had this discussion with a ton of people. If you play in a league that counts SLG, OBP , or OPS, there is no player that gains more value at 1B in my rankings than Belt. I love Belt in especially 6x6 leagues with OBP and SLG. 41 Doubles and a butt ton of walks? Sign me up. 

 

I'm fully of the belief that people NEVER adjust enough for different scoring systems. NEVER. And those who do always trust the league to let people slip just like when you see Paxton ranked 255th on ESPN and you go "well I have him 140 but I think i can get him at 220." It's the same in OBP leagues, so every good OBP player slips and if you've adjusted your ranks more than anyone else you can profit the most. I'm all over Bryce in an OBP. The power, line-up spot, some steals, and 17% BB% establish a floor to me that is insanely high. The fact that he can finish 70 points in BA below Mookie and still beat him in OBP is vastly underrated.

 

And I'm not against you not believing him as a #2 pick in OBP, I am against your boy brycey rose colored glasses comment, because I think my opinion is very much based in logic, data, and the like, and the evaluation of floor and upside. We just see it differently. 

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^

 

Carlos Santana gains a ton of value also in leagues that use  SLG, OBP, and/or OPS.

 

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11 minutes ago, jb_power said:

^

 

Carlos Santana gains a ton of value also in leagues that use  SLG, OBP, and/or OPS.

 

 

Sad thing about that though is that he's finally being drafted like top 100 I believe in ESPN leagues so the variance isn't nearly as much. Last year I had him in like five OBPs. 

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28 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Yes. Absolutely. I've had this discussion with a ton of people. If you play in a league that counts SLG, OBP , or OPS, there is no player that gains more value at 1B in my rankings than Belt. I love Belt in especially 6x6 leagues with OBP and SLG. 41 Doubles and a butt ton of walks? Sign me up. 

 

I'm fully of the belief that people NEVER adjust enough for different scoring systems. NEVER. And those who do always trust the league to let people slip just like when you see Paxton ranked 255th on ESPN and you go "well I have him 140 but I think i can get him at 220." It's the same in OBP leagues, so every good OBP player slips and if you've adjusted your ranks more than anyone else you can profit the most. I'm all over Bryce in an OBP. The power, line-up spot, some steals, and 17% BB% establish a floor to me that is insanely high. The fact that he can finish 70 points in BA below Mookie and still beat him in OBP is vastly underrated.

 

And I'm not against you not believing him as a #2 pick in OBP, I am against your boy brycey rose colored glasses comment, because I think my opinion is very much based in logic, data, and the like, and the evaluation of floor and upside. We just see it differently. 

Agree on the value, BTW Rose-Colored glasses wiki definition:   An optimistic perception of something

 

No offense meant by it, just means you are more optimistic than some, whether thats data driven or because you like watching the guy play regardless of the numbers.  I appreciate your data rationale on him, and like I said, he may very well produce the kind of 2017 you are expecting and I quite frankly wouldnt bet against it, I would just hope on draft day, I wouldnt have to pay 1st round price for it, but more of a value play.  Thats all.  

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1 minute ago, parrothead said:

Agree on the value, BTW Rose-Colored glasses wiki definition:   An optimistic perception of something

 

No offense meant by it, just means you are more optimistic than some, whether thats data driven or because you like watching the guy play regardless of the numbers.  I appreciate your data rationale on him, and like I said, he may very well produce the kind of 2017 you are expecting and I quite frankly wouldnt bet against it, I would just hope on draft day, I wouldnt have to pay 1st round price for it, but more of a value play.  Thats all.  

 

I could argue about the difference between a definition and a connotation all day, but I won't. 

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On 2/26/2017 at 7:06 AM, Backdoor Slider said:

 

When you say things "he NEVER brings good value..." <Lie> and "at one point last year they almost sent him to the minors..." <Lie>, it's hard to think you're able to look at things objectively here. 

1) I believe it was @taobball who said he'd take him #2 in OBP leagues. So you're mixing up posters. 

2) I like your stocks analogy. But I think it's a touch off. It was once $150 (see, don't say never. He did once bring good value). Last year it was $98. So what you're paying this year (say pick 10-12) is about $125. I think at that spot, it takes into account potential to not reach that value, but also the potential to be worth more. 

Probably misunderstanding what Im thinking about value, to me his really only valuable year was probably his rookie season when most drafters thought he was not going to get called up until maybe June at earliest but ended up getting called up and winning ROY.  Since that year, I think his draft day "value" has never really been at or below what market rate should of been given numbers, performance, etc. He certainly overperformed whatever his late 1st/2nd round ADP was in 2015 but given he was coming off two years where he got injured and that narrative was starting to be told, I didnt think he was great value.  Again, the investment paid off big time in 15, just saying the price for that investment at the time was higher than market rate should of been and I am in complete agreement that he will likely have a big bounceback season this year, I just dont think 1st rounders are where you need to take bounceback guys, so what Im referring to is the value.  

 

And on the minors thing, "almost" is probably a strong word, but it was talked about in the "whats wrong with Bryce" scenario last July (although Im not even 100% those who were writing knew if he could contractually go down or how that worked) lets just say, in July last year, if it was an option to go down (without being claimed by another team) its not something I would of bet my house that it couldnt or wouldnt happen.  Although, Dusty is usually a players manager type guy, being a pretty good one himself, probably wouldnt think the up/down thing would be good. 

 

Bottom line:  I wish he was cheaper this year!!!!

 

 

Edited by parrothead

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On 2/26/2017 at 11:19 AM, taobball said:

 

Yes. Absolutely. I've had this discussion with a ton of people. If you play in a league that counts SLG, OBP , or OPS, there is no player that gains more value at 1B in my rankings than Belt. I love Belt in especially 6x6 leagues with OBP and SLG. 41 Doubles and a butt ton of walks? Sign me up. 

 

I'm fully of the belief that people NEVER adjust enough for different scoring systems. NEVER. And those who do always trust the league to let people slip just like when you see Paxton ranked 255th on ESPN and you go "well I have him 140 but I think i can get him at 220." It's the same in OBP leagues, so every good OBP player slips and if you've adjusted your ranks more than anyone else you can profit the most. I'm all over Bryce in an OBP. The power, line-up spot, some steals, and 17% BB% establish a floor to me that is insanely high. The fact that he can finish 70 points in BA below Mookie and still beat him in OBP is vastly underrated.

 

And I'm not against you not believing him as a #2 pick in OBP, I am against your boy brycey rose colored glasses comment, because I think my opinion is very much based in logic, data, and the like, and the evaluation of floor and upside. We just see it differently. 

 

 

what about in leagues that count BOTH AVG and OPS?  Cancel each other out or continue to make Harper that much stronger? 

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Just now, midlip said:

 

 

what about in leagues that count BOTH AVG and OPS?  Cancel each other out or continue to make Harper that much stronger? 

 

Hard to say. He wouldn't be #2. I'd have him at least over Machado but other than that it'd take some real time for me to figure out. 

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Just now, taobball said:

 

Hard to say. He wouldn't be #2. I'd have him at least over Machado but other than that it'd take some real time for me to figure out. 

with the risk of sounding bench coach-ish... i'm trying to adjust for guys for leagues with expanded scoring cats than 5x5 (AVG, R, HR, RBI, K, OPS, XBH, Net Steals) as an example and trying to find guys that move up or down considerably when factored in.... as an example, Dozier, Longoria, Duvall, and Lamb have to be moved up because of all the doubles... 

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Kind of late to the party. But definitely can't see myself taking anyone other than Trout before this guy in an OBP league. Sorry, my 1st round pick is based on floor. Trough his age 23 season, the guy has a career walk rate of 14% and a career OPS of .883. You can pass on him, but I will fight @taobball for him at the #2 pick.

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3 hours ago, jspeco9 said:

Kind of late to the party. But definitely can't see myself taking anyone other than Trout before this guy in an OBP league. Sorry, my 1st round pick is based on floor. Trough his age 23 season, the guy has a career walk rate of 14% and a career OPS of .883. You can pass on him, but I will fight @taobball for him at the #2 pick.

I agree with this in an OBP league (though might go for Kershaw). But in AVG I just think the floor is too low

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13 hours ago, midlip said:

 

 

what about in leagues that count BOTH AVG and OPS?  Cancel each other out or continue to make Harper that much stronger? 

 

13 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Hard to say. He wouldn't be #2. I'd have him at least over Machado but other than that it'd take some real time for me to figure out. 

 

Interesting you mention this as this is how my leagues are set up, and have been wondering where to place him. I keep flip flopping trying to balance risk, upside and the OPS boost. Right now I have him at #7 in front of Machado and Donaldson.

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