urban2014

Bryce Harper 2017 Outlook

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Also, I think it can come down to the size of the league, and whether you feel you can adjust if Harper doesn't rebound close to the level we could expect for a higher first rounder. The deeper the league, I'd probably play it safer (whatever we deem as 'safe', of course). I think a little while back there was a discussion about safer players and I'm not sure Harper is safe (i.e. high floor) enough compared to others...yet. If you play OBP/OPS, then the risk is lessened a bit given his on base strengths.

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The one thing I read that shook me up a bit on Harper was his exit velocity on batted balls. That was way down from where it used to be. I'm sure injuries played a factor but still a very relevant stat to keep an eye on going forward.

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If injuries played a part how relevant is the exit velocity dropping? Just watching him last year you could see Harper was hurting.

 

.243/84/24/86/21  isn't going to lose you a league in H2H if you took Harper in the first round.  You just build your team to help cover the lower ave but personally I'll take the risk on him doing much better then last year. As a floor I can live with it and barring injuries I can see the counting stats going up as the players in front of him are better (imo) then last year barring some strange lineup construction.

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2 hours ago, Stats said:

The one thing I read that shook me up a bit on Harper was his exit velocity on batted balls. That was way down from where it used to be. I'm sure injuries played a factor but still a very relevant stat to keep an eye on going forward.

Is that on all batted balls?  The guy was in a major slump, might of been injury might have been something else versus dialed in and barrelling everything up, my guess is that when your gorking the ball off the end of the bat, etc the exit speed isnt going to be very good.  Do they have that by splits of any kind or is it just the season?  I would be curious his bat exit speed avg when he was a bit more dialed in like 1st half vs say July.  

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32 minutes ago, parrothead said:

Is that on all batted balls?  The guy was in a major slump, might of been injury might have been something else versus dialed in and barrelling everything up, my guess is that when your gorking the ball off the end of the bat, etc the exit speed isnt going to be very good.  Do they have that by splits of any kind or is it just the season?  I would be curious his bat exit speed avg when he was a bit more dialed in like 1st half vs say July.  

His average exit velocity dropped from 92.8 mph in April to 88.9 mph afterward for the season. No split information that I know of. 

Edited by Stats

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42 minutes ago, ZeroCool22 said:

Machado or Harper at pick 7?

BC question but there are to many variables to say in a vacuum. League size makes a huge difference. If my 2nd pick falls into a range where I can get one of Seager, Correa, or even Linder I would take Harper and work from there. 

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Will not be drafting this bum again. Owned him last year and he was an absolute headache and was just awful most of the year. I'll let someone else hope he reemerges as the MVP player he was two years ago. This guy is ddd list for me.  

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20 minutes ago, chud12 said:

Will not be drafting this bum again. Owned him last year and he was an absolute headache and was just awful most of the year. I'll let someone else hope he reemerges as the MVP player he was two years ago. This guy is ddd list for me.  

So if I've got this right, you've decided to put a 24 year-old on your do not draft list, a guy who walks almost as much as he Ks, because his 24 HR/21 SB season wasn't as great as his MVP season, at 23 years old. 

Raise your right hand. Now slap yourself with it. Because this is really, really bad "logic." 

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16 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

So if I've got this right, you've decided to put a 24 year-old on your do not draft list, a guy who walks almost as much as he Ks, because his 24 HR/21 SB season wasn't as great as his MVP season, at 23 years old. 

Raise your right hand. Now slap yourself with it. Because this is really, really bad "logic." 

 

Last year I took him first overall and for this season yea I will not touch him.  The experience was just horrible last year so again yea I won't be drafting him this season. 

Edited by chud12

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1 minute ago, chud12 said:

 

I took him first overall and for this season yea I will not touch him.  

 

What is your email address?  Because your league invite will be arriving shortly.

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1 minute ago, El_Chingon said:

 

What is your email address?  Because your league invite will be arriving shortly.

 

It was an obp league where that is waited heavily so before you judge you might Want to ask what type of league etc. Hate when people do that. 

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3 minutes ago, chud12 said:

 

It was an obp league where that is waited heavily so before you judge you might Want to ask what type of league etc. Hate when people do that. 

If it was an OBP league then he worked out pretty well for you

Edited by mysonx3

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Just now, mysonx3 said:

If it was an OBP league then he worked out really well for you

 

Like I said he was just a headache for me. I am alloud to stay away from certain guys for a year if I want and Bryce is one of them for this year. Hey he could be a monster again but this is where I'm at. 

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45 minutes ago, chud12 said:

Will not be drafting this bum again. Owned him last year and he was an absolute headache and was just awful most of the year. I'll let someone else hope he reemerges as the MVP player he was two years ago. This guy is ddd list for me.  

Sometimes you guys love to pile on. ;)

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Just now, chud12 said:

 

Like I said he was just a headache for me. I am alloud to stay away from certain guys for a year if I want and Bryce is one of them for this year. Hey he could be a monster again but this is where I'm at. 

Sure you're allowed to stay away from certain guys if you want, but if you're looking for a place to post your opinion without it being challenged you should look elsewhere

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I get I struck a nerve I guess but it's my team and I will not own Bryce for this season. Like I said it was not a good experience, hate it if you want.  

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1 minute ago, mysonx3 said:

Sure you're allowed to stay away from certain guys if you want, but if you're looking for a place to post your opinion without it being challenged you should look elsewhere

 

Im not new to this forum and I flooded the Harper thread last season with my dismay. I expected disagreements when I made the post. I'm cool either way.

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7 minutes ago, chud12 said:

 

Last year I took him first overall and for this season yea I will not touch him.  The experience was just horrible last year so again yea I won't be drafting him this season. 

 

I mean, of course it's your prerogative. It's just not very smart to write off one of the elite hitters in the game who is just 24. Good luck trying to choose all the players you think are safe and couldn't possible "burn" you.

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7 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

 

I mean, of course it's your prerogative. It's just not very smart to write off one of the elite hitters in the game who is just 24. Good luck trying to choose all the players you think are safe and couldn't possible "burn" you.

 

When I get burned by a guy I took in the first round I tend to shy away the next year regardless.  It's just how I operate. If he hits 45 plus bombs o well. 

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It's really a matter of position. If you're sitting on 10th pick and "wouldn't consider Harper" you're a fool. Regardless of format. I'm considering him at 6th 

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3 minutes ago, midlip said:

It's really a matter of position. If you're sitting on 10th pick and "wouldn't consider Harper" you're a fool. Regardless of format. I'm considering him at 6th 

 

I guess you have a point. If he falls I might have to draft him but I would hate it. 

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If spring training is any sign of anything (usually isn't), this guy is going to hit 40 bombs. Drafting with complete confidence.

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I understand why some would stay away in the first 6 picks of any format simply because some like to avoid risk in the 1st round. Harper is a slight risk but the reward in my opinion outweighs that risk. But, like I said, to each his own. Now if I were sitting with a pick anywhere from 7-12 I would definitely consider taking him and would probably wind up with him on my team. I've even considered taking him in my OBP league at 3rd overall when I have guys like Goldschmidt, Altuve, and Kershaw to choose from (keeper league so a bunch of others you would normally see in the 1st few rounds are gone). 

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