Bryce Harper 2017 Outlook

[bradwatson 1,593]

On 3/10/2017 at 10:00 PM, jspeco9 said:

If spring training is any sign of anything (usually isn't), this guy is going to hit 40 bombs. Drafting with complete confidence.

Well you certainly can't view it as a bad thing that he's crushing baseballs again. Hopefully there was some truth to the injury reports and he didn't just suck last year.

[BlueJaysIn2030 1,977]

3 minutes ago, bradwatson said:

Well you certainly can't view it as a bad thing that he's crushing baseballs again. Hopefully there was some truth to the injury reports and he didn't just suck last year.

He only sucked relative to draft position. A guy going 24/21 with 86RBI, 84R, a .373OBP and an .814OPS is pretty damn good. I 100% buy into the idea that he was hurt. I also think that he's mentally weak and the Cubs walking him a bazillion times messed with him.

[bradwatson 1,593]

4 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

He only sucked relative to draft position. A guy going 24/21 with 86RBI, 84R, a .373OBP and an .814OPS is pretty damn good. I 100% buy into the idea that he was hurt. I also think that he's mentally weak and the Cubs walking him a bazillion times messed with him.

Considering 80% of his production came before that infamous Cub series he sucked pretty badly in H2H for 70% of the season. Overall the numbers aren't awful, but like you said relative to draft position they are brutal. The steals were the saving grace.

[BlueJaysIn2030 1,977]

1 minute ago, bradwatson said:

Considering 80% of his production came before that infamous Cub series he sucked pretty badly in H2H for 70% of the season. Overall the numbers aren't awful, but like you said relative to draft position they are brutal. The steals were the saving grace.

Oh gosh yeah. He was brutal for a big chunk. That's a big reason I buy into the shoulder injury idea. His hard% was way way way down. It was tough in H2H. Roto might be different - still hard to swallow with his draft #.

[JFS179 3,770]

For those swearing off of him after last year or saying he's on your DND list... I mean, I guess he could get hurt again, but so could other guys.  

 

If healthy, Harper is one of the best players in the game.  There's no performance risk to me, just injury risk.  It's illogical to me to avoid him after burning you last year because that inherently (to me) assumes he gets hurt again.  Lightning can certainly strike twice, but you're betting he gets hurt two years in a row, as a 23 and 24 YO without any history of major, chronic injuries.

[BostonCajun 1,670]

Could not agree more. Would anyone be at all surprised if Harper was the #1 fantasy player this year? No. That to me clearly means he should be drafted in the first round and arguably in the upper half of the first round. His combination of power and speed with his on base skills are second to only one player, Trout, and that is very close. 

[oswald737 2,962]

I've moved up Harper a bit, but for those suggesting that his bad second half was due to injury, you're probably right... but I'm not sure that necessarily helps his case. Harper has had a series of ailments in his young career. I have him as top 8-9 player based on talent, but moving him much higher means you are choosing him over many other substantially safer options. If Harper returns number 1 overall value, you get a good boost at 7-10, but if he gets hurt again (and worse plays through that injury like last season), that puts you behind the curve relative to the safer options behind him... Rizzo, Donaldson, etc.

[Brooklyn Dude 455]

It's certainly tempting to take a couple of the other top players before Bryce Harper after last year.  Where to slot him in for me probably comes down to his ability to swipe some bases and improve on last years numbers a bit.  I would take him over Manny Machado if Manny isn't running anymore.

[Fuzzy_Slippers 3,896]

28 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

It's certainly tempting to take a couple of the other top players before Bryce Harper after last year.  Where to slot him in for me probably comes down to his ability to swipe some bases and improve on last years numbers a bit.  I would take him over Manny Machado if Manny isn't running anymore.

 

I would also take Bryce over Manuel. 

[azeri98 801]

1 hour ago, BostonCajun said:

Could not agree more. Would anyone be at all surprised if Harper was the #1 fantasy player this year? No. That to me clearly means he should be drafted in the first round and arguably in the upper half of the first round. His combination of power and speed with his on base skills are second to only one player, Trout, and that is very close. 

I think he will be the best offensive player in fantasy this year, that line up is way better than last year and he's in the middle.

[oswald737 2,962]

1 hour ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

I would also take Bryce over Manuel. 

 

Same. We're talking about a few slots of wiggle room.

 

For me, I have a hard time ignoring Bryce's injury history over guys like Trout, Betts, Altuve, Arenado, Bryant and Goldschmidt. I also personally think that I gamble on an injury risk for Kershaw because of the vast differential between Kershaw and the number 2 pitcher if he stays healthy. Then comes Harper for me (number 8) before Machado, Turner, Donaldson, Rizzo, Cabrera, Scherzer, Blackmon, etc.

 

To me, upside and risk aversion balance in the first round is hard. Everyone loves the upside of a Harper (or Turner), but the farther up you push those guys, the more you are taking on risk that you can't partially buy down in the second round.

[Dislimb 1,343]

I'm bummed out that my main league doesn't have our auction for another week and a half. He's absolutely destroying the ball so far this spring and I'm afraid he's going to steadily get more expensive as the days go by. He's honestly my #2 player behind Trout, but I play in an OBP roto league.

[herschel 1,933]

im debating between rizzo and harper and leaning rizzo, but only because of my draft position and i like the outfielders coming back to me in the second/third rounds more than i like the first baseman available....

[exm 248]

44 minutes ago, herschel said:

im debating between rizzo and harper and leaning rizzo, but only because of my draft position and i like the outfielders coming back to me in the second/third rounds more than i like the first baseman available....

 

Rizzo for sure. He's as consistent as they come. Sure, Harper's upside is higher but you'll have to deal with his slumps and injuries.

[crafty 289]

3 hours ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

It's certainly tempting to take a couple of the other top players before Bryce Harper after last year.  Where to slot him in for me probably comes down to his ability to swipe some bases and improve on last years numbers a bit.  I would take him over Manny Machado if Manny isn't running anymore.

 

Completely agree. And it's not like Machado is without injury concerns himself. Same age and has already blown out both his knees.

[JFS179 3,770]

1 hour ago, herschel said:

im debating between rizzo and harper and leaning rizzo, but only because of my draft position and i like the outfielders coming back to me in the second/third rounds more than i like the first baseman available....

 

23 minutes ago, exm said:

 

Rizzo for sure. He's as consistent as they come. Sure, Harper's upside is higher but you'll have to deal with his slumps and injuries.

 

 

Disagree with both of you ... I don't think Rizzo's a first rounder, personally.  He's my 4th 1B behind Goldy, Miggy, and Votto.

 

I'd much prefer Harper.

[herschel 1,933]

3 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

 

 

Disagree with both of you ... I don't think Rizzo's a first rounder, personally.  He's my 4th 1B behind Goldy, Miggy, and Votto.

 

I'd much prefer Harper.

even if those rankings prove to be true, i dont think any of them would make it back to me with my second round pick.  i am looking more at the likes of abreu (possibly ee if he drops), so for me specifically, its a decision between rizzo and one of marte/stanton/cruz/jd or harper and abreu.  out of those options, i prefer rizzo with any of those OF much more....dont want this to be a bc discussion, or make take this away from a bryce topic, but just pointing out that in drafting, its not always about who is better straight up player....

[JFS179 3,770]

Just now, herschel said:

even if those rankings prove to be true, i dont think any of them would make it back to me with my second round pick.  i am looking more at the likes of abreu (possibly ee if he drops), so for me specifically, its a decision between rizzo and one of marte/stanton/cruz/jd or harper and abreu.  out of those options, i prefer rizzo with any of those OF much more....dont want this to be a bc discussion, or make take this away from a bryce topic, but just pointing out that in drafting, its not always about who is better straight up player....

 

What slot are you talking about drafting from?  Cause that makes a major difference.  If it's 8-10, in a standard 12-team league, I guess it's theoretically possible that none of those guys come back (but you'd get a Seager or Correa type of consolation prize).  If you're talking a 20-team league, then that's obviously an atypical situation.

[Fuzzy_Slippers 3,896]

11 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

 

 

 

Disagree with both of you ... I don't think Rizzo's a first rounder, personally.  He's my 4th 1B behind Goldy, Miggy, and Votto.

 

I'd much prefer Harper.

 

I don't feel as strongly as you do, but I would also take Harper over Rizzo. Harper's ceiling is so tantalizing. 

[EmbargoLifted 902]

These are the only players i would take over Harper this season:

 

Trout

Bryant

Arenado

Betts

Altuve

Goldschmidt

 

You are getting a nice discount on a tier 1 player this season due to a fluky down year.

 

[Fuzzy_Slippers 3,896]

1 minute ago, EmbargoLifted said:

These are the only players i would take over Harper this season:

 

Trout

Bryant

Arenado

Betts

Altuve

Goldschmidt

 

You are getting a nice discount on a tier 1 player this season due to a fluky down year.

 

Pretty much feel the same way. I would also take Kershaw before Bryce, but that's due to my league. 

[parrothead 2,141]

This is one of the real intriguing things heading into my main auction on Saturday, he went for $60 last year, same as Trout, my hope is that the down year, would create like a 25-30% discount off of that, so more in the $40-45 range, I dont think that will happen, the challenge for me in an auction, is I honestly believe some of the best value this year to be had is in that tier 2-3 outfielders.    If Harper is going at near 16 pricing, good for that owner, but I wont pay that.  Now whats interesting is in a draft, if I had that pick in the last 1/3rd of the 1st round, I am absolutely a buyer on him, because you have to take someone, you cant say, " I will pass and take an extra 2 extra 3rd rounders"  because in terms of what you pay for pricing, lets say you are gonna spend $65 on 3 OF and Harper is 2016 pricing, then its Harper and 2 scrubs or would you rather spend that on say Cutch, Jones and Kemp?  Or Marte, Kemp and Desmond on an injury discount?  

 

I actually want to see his name called out fairly early, I might even call it out 1st go round, because people know I call guys out who I think are gonna be inflated, so maybe just maybe that works to my advantage.  But we will see... 

[chud12 4,076]

So much optimism on this thread regarding Harper. I wonder how many of you guys owned him in H2H formats last year because it was so painful after the first month. Anyway Harper has batted over .300 once, has hit 25 plus hrs once, has never had a 100 rbi's and has scored 100 plus runs just once in his 5 seasons. I know he is so darn young but still. We are acting like he has this massive track record of production here when its really only been one year of elite production. With Harper I feel like we are back to where he was the year before his MVP season again where you are betting on upside, taking him over proven first round players and hoping his "injuries" were the reason for his terrible 5 months of the season. This is just how I feel about Harper again, he has the same question marks he had before his MVP season now.. If you draft him at picks 7-12 and he booms its amazing and you get a huge draft day steal but if he flops again and gets banged up, plays through it etc. than you are going to be frustrated at the end of the day with his production or lack there of..  

Edited March 15, 2017 by chud12

[colepenhagen 3,459]

1 hour ago, EmbargoLifted said:

These are the only players i would take over Harper this season:

 

Trout

Bryant

Arenado

Betts

Altuve

Goldschmidt

 

You are getting a nice discount on a tier 1 player this season due to a fluky down year.

 

has more fluky down years than tier 1 years

 

[parrothead 2,141]

25 minutes ago, chud12 said:

So much optimism on this thread regarding Harper. I wonder how many of you guys owned him in H2H formats last year because it was so painful after the first month. Anyway Harper has batted over .300 once, has hit 25 plus hrs once, has never had a 100 rbi's and has scored 100 plus runs just once in his 5 seasons. I know he is so darn young but still. We are acting like he has this massive track record of production here when its really only been one year of elite production. With Harper I feel like we are back to where he was the year before his MVP season again where you are betting on upside, taking him over proven first round players and hoping his "injuries" were the reason for his terrible 5 months of the season. This is just how I feel about Harper again, he has the same question marks he had before his MVP season now.. If you draft him at picks 7-12 and he booms its amazing and you get a huge draft day steal but if he flops again and gets banged up, plays through it etc. than you are going to be frustrated at the end of the day with his production or lack there of..  

Its not just this board, its the entire landscape this year, he is 9th ADP.  going as high as 5th, worst 21st, so not even out of 2nd round in ANY 12-team league?

I get the feeling with Harper, that until he is older and has these ups and downs, the potential and ability will continue to drive his ADP and perception, despite the fact that since being called up to the bigs, he has outperformed his ADP once.    So if he struggles again, I dont think it will matter that much, he will still be young and full of potential and people will just say hit me again Bryce and put some stank on it...