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Bryce Harper 2017 Outlook

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On March 17, 2017 at 0:18 AM, Gryfter said:

 

You mean like last year where Maddon walked him like 13 out of 19 ABs and "supposedly" got into Harper's head?

 

 

Or I can mean when he was the best player on earth in 2015 

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I am the biggest Bryce supporter out there. The spring look he has is making me think last year was a fluke. So I am thinking 35 HR's 15 SB's is the floor

 

 

Then my buddy pointed out a WP article and it has be thinking about not taking him at pick 8. I am so all over the place with Harper, I just do not know what to think

 

Here's the article

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2017/02/27/bryce-harper-could-again-be-a-fantasy-baseball-bust-in-2017/?utm_term=.458e23ecfc9b

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38 minutes ago, rotoguy74 said:

I am the biggest Bryce supporter out there. The spring look he has is making me think last year was a fluke. So I am thinking 35 HR's 15 SB's is the floor

 

 

Then my buddy pointed out a WP article and it has be thinking about not taking him at pick 8. I am so all over the place with Harper, I just do not know what to think

 

Here's the article

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2017/02/27/bryce-harper-could-again-be-a-fantasy-baseball-bust-in-2017/?utm_term=.458e23ecfc9b

ive been there with you, not to pay full freight but just kind of discussing/debating those who are, in part to try and tamp down the narrative a bit.  Went into auction Saturday, thought perhaps he might come at a value ($38-42 on a 260 scale) I was maybe gonna target about $80 to spend on he and Posey.  Our league tends to de-value guys pretty quick after a down year or perceived down year, we dont usually have the trend-trains.  Went a while before he got called out, but still a few names out there thought maybe could be a value but no...went 50 which is slight value from his price last year, but not maybe as much as you might see coming off his year. 

 

But its in line with his ADP: Trout 66, Arenado 58  Bryant still cheap keeper Altuve 54 Goldy 54 Kershaw frozen at 54 Machado frozen at 48 Miggy frozen at 46 Harper went 50 .  Then again so did Posey which was crazy.  

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1 hour ago, rotoguy74 said:

I am the biggest Bryce supporter out there. The spring look he has is making me think last year was a fluke. So I am thinking 35 HR's 15 SB's is the floor

 

I too have Bryce Harper at number 8 in my overall rankings, but to suggest that 35 homers & 15 SBs is his floor is pretty crazy talk imo. In 5 professional seasons, Harper has topped that HR mark once and the SB mark twice and never both in the same season. Yes, he absolutely could go 35/15 (and I actually would be fairly comfortable with that as a higher end projection), but I would think that's probably around the 80-90th percentile of his ceiling..... not his floor. I think expecting a floor that a player has never actually achieved is a misuse of the term floor.

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Honestly, his floor for SBs should be pretty much none. When players with his hitting profile start slugging and hitting more homers, they run a lot less. I'm all-in this year and his speed has nothing to do with it. I'm purposely projecting him not to run at all this year since I think he's going to slug his brains out. He's clearly going to run at least sometimes, but I'm not even going to factor that in regarding my rankings. Any SBs thrown in will just be a bonus.

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2 hours ago, rotoguy74 said:

I am the biggest Bryce supporter out there. The spring look he has is making me think last year was a fluke. So I am thinking 35 HR's 15 SB's is the floor

 

 

Then my buddy pointed out a WP article and it has be thinking about not taking him at pick 8. I am so all over the place with Harper, I just do not know what to think

 

Here's the article

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2017/02/27/bryce-harper-could-again-be-a-fantasy-baseball-bust-in-2017/?utm_term=.458e23ecfc9b

 

Using a sample size of players age 28 or younger is a flaw in the statistical analysis above.  They should have used a pool of players 25 and younger.  Why?   Because only generational/freaky talents can perform at MVP level at such a young age.  They are statistical outliers already.  When you include players that played at MVP levels in their age 25/26/27/28 seasons you're including lesser talents in the pool.

 

Someone in the comments section mentioned Johnny Bench as a more accurate comp.

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Thoughts on trading down from pick 3 to pick 9 to get Harper. It would set me up better round 2.

 

 

I got to finally see Harper live a few days ago and dag gone!! This dude is unreal in life. I had seen him at a Red's game but the seats were not great. In spring I was about 25 feet from him and this guy looks like he is gonna crush this year, swole!!

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2 hours ago, RolandoRoomes said:

Thoughts on trading down from pick 3 to pick 9 to get Harper. It would set me up better round 2.

 

 

I got to finally see Harper live a few days ago and dag gone!! This dude is unreal in life. I had seen him at a Red's game but the seats were not great. In spring I was about 25 feet from him and this guy looks like he is gonna crush this year, swole!!

 

You won't get Harper with the 9th pick. 

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On 3/19/2017 at 10:27 PM, tingyangs6 said:

Or I can mean when he was the best player on earth in 2015 

 

Well, my point was everyone was walking him left and right already. Noticed his walks and OBP%?

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17 hours ago, Dislimb said:

Honestly, his floor for SBs should be pretty much none. When players with his hitting profile start slugging and hitting more homers, they run a lot less. I'm all-in this year and his speed has nothing to do with it. I'm purposely projecting him not to run at all this year since I think he's going to slug his brains out. He's clearly going to run at least sometimes, but I'm not even going to factor that in regarding my rankings. Any SBs thrown in will just be a bonus.

Yeah, sometimes. But look at peak Pujols.
2005: 41HR, .330, 16SB
...couple years with less than 10SB
2008: 37HR, .327, 16SB
2009: 42HR, .312, 14SB

There are a few guys who have multiple years of hr/sb. Here's a short list of guys who went at least 20/10 in 2016 and 2015:

Goldy
Trout
Dozier
Frazier
Braun
Kinsler

There's also a big group of guys who 10/20, 15/20, etc. 

Some guys commit to it and just do it. I think it's mostly mental: Am I going to steal today, am I committed to it? Is the moment now?

Harper is built like a truck. If he is going to run, he is going to run regardless of result - this is one of the reasons  he gets hurt, he just flat out goes (into walls, into people, into bases, etc).

I really doubt we see a 150 games where he steals less than 5 bases from now until he's like 28 or 29 (we also might not see 150 games haha). 

I mostly agree with you, but that's more based on the premise that everyone's floor is 0 stolen bases. I'm projecting him to steal at least 10, regardless of if he hits 50HRs.

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3 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Yeah, sometimes. But look at peak Pujols.
2005: 41HR, .330, 16SB
...couple years with less than 10SB
2008: 37HR, .327, 16SB
2009: 42HR, .312, 14SB

There are a few guys who have multiple years of hr/sb. Here's a short list of guys who went at least 20/10 in 2016 and 2015:

Goldy
Trout
Dozier
Frazier
Braun
Kinsler

There's also a big group of guys who 10/20, 15/20, etc. 

Some guys commit to it and just do it. I think it's mostly mental: Am I going to steal today, am I committed to it? Is the moment now?

Harper is built like a truck. If he is going to run, he is going to run regardless of result - this is one of the reasons  he gets hurt, he just flat out goes (into walls, into people, into bases, etc).

I really doubt we see a 150 games where he steals less than 5 bases from now until he's like 28 or 29 (we also might not see 150 games haha). 

I mostly agree with you, but that's more based on the premise that everyone's floor is 0 stolen bases. I'm projecting him to steal at least 10, regardless of if he hits 50HRs.

You mean like 2015 where he played 153 games, had his best hitting season by far and stole only 6?  

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2 minutes ago, parrothead said:

You mean like 2015 where he played 153 games, had his best hitting season by far and stole only 6?  

Not the point. I was talking about the previous posters comment of power hitters not stealing.

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15 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Not the point. I was talking about the previous posters comment of power hitters not stealing.

There is a trend of that happening, where guys just determine, that stolen bases somehow either are a injury risk or somehow drains them.  I was gonna be a buyer on Harper if the price was right and I probably would have been really disappointed with sub-10 steals, so I tend to agree with you, but these days, SB's are just the great unknown.  Look at Trout, guy goes what 12 or something like that in 15, so you think "well maybe he isnt running" then comes back with elite 5 category year last year.  Would I be shocked to see him back at like 10?  no.  

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1 minute ago, parrothead said:

There is a trend of that happening, where guys just determine, that stolen bases somehow either are a injury risk or somehow drains them.  I was gonna be a buyer on Harper if the price was right and I probably would have been really disappointed with sub-10 steals, so I tend to agree with you, but these days, SB's are just the great unknown.  Look at Trout, guy goes what 12 or something like that in 15, so you think "well maybe he isnt running" then comes back with elite 5 category year last year.  Would I be shocked to see him back at like 10?  no.  

I'm not debating that guys do it. I was just giving some examples of guys who don't do it, and I thought that Harper could fall into that group. That doesn't mean he will, but I'm saying that if we assume he's going to steal zero (the poster said that's his floor) then we should assume Trout will steal zero and hit 40.

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Harper is also just two seasons away from his mega deal and is coming off of an injury plagued, down year. Granted, his steals kept him from completely burning people in fantasy last year but his hitting was atrocious in the second half mostly due to injury. I feel that a healthy Harper will want to stay that way this year. Especially if he starts slugging his brains out like I predict that he will. If Harper is fully healthy then 40 homers are far more likely than 20 steals IMO.

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For the weeks heading into my draft (which happened last night) Harper was "the guy". This is a 12-team 5x5 Roto league with OBP substituted for BA. The rosters are very deep, at least on the batting side, with pairings at every position (ie: two C, two 1b, two 2b, and so on) and the OF broken down as such (LF, LF; CF, CF; RF, RF). 

 

One misgiving I had to do with taking Harper was an acknowledgement of how deep RF is. Undoubtedly the deepest of the positions once you breakdown the OF. At least in my opinion it is. Then on top of that I would need to start two players from such weak positions, like C and 2b then SS really trails off to its traditional paucity after the crop of phenoms are gone. 

 

Notwithstanding the foregoing, I was so convinced of Harper's ability and was determined to get him. I wound up getting into a bidding war with one guy and nabbing him for $39. To put that in context, Harper was the second most expensive slugger ~ Trout went for $44. Kershaw also went for $39. Those were the most expensive three. 

 

I like Harper this year in any format but he really receives a boost in OBP. Last year was disappointing but still a good year in such a format. 20/20 with a .373 OBP -- nothing at all to sneeze at. My theory (which I am not sure if confirmed or not) was that Harper played through some sort of injury after his torrid April. Injuries are the rub. If healthy -- I cannot see him failing to have a very big year. 

 

Some pundits question his spot in the first round and so many inculcate the importance of being averse to risk with early selections. I can see there point but, uh, what player doesn't carry a modicum of risk? And I play to win the league, not finish 6th. We're not exactly starting with last year's numbers then going from there. Even with last year's crazy power surge, Harper posted a better line in 2015 than anyone else did last year. In fact, he was the first to post an OPS above 1.100 since Pujols in his prime. Cabrera didn't do it in his Triple Crown year (less than 1.000) or the year after. Trout has never done it. And this 2015 season was done by a 22 year old! He will be only 24 on opening day. Have our expectations for young players been skewed by Trout's uncanny stability? I mean, can we give him a pass on having an age 23 season which did not meet people's #1 overall pick expectations?

 

I, too, pooh-pooh the Washington Post article cited above. I would like to see the players they included in the sample, my bet is none was a generational talent like Harper is. One player which sprung to my mind was Alex Rodriguez. In 1996, he finished 2nd in the MVP voting, slashing .358/.414/.631 with 141 runs, 36 home runs and 123 runs driven in. The following year 23 HR 84 RBI and a less flashy .846 OPS. But -- yeah -- not like A Rod ever had another great season or anything. 

Edited by IceGoat

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I also don't believe that, when we evaluate Bryce Harper, we can put too much emphasis on his pre-MVP seasons when projecting out. He was 21 and less. Those are developmental years. 2015 and 2016 should be weighted more heavily. 

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What's up fellas? New account for  me but I've been around awhile.  

 

First time owning Harper since his rookie season.  So y'all  can either thank me or blame me, depending on how things go this season.

 

So far, looking like a good investment!

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5 minutes ago, rrrich46 said:

What's up fellas? New account for  me but I've been around awhile.  

 

First time owning Harper since his rookie season.  So y'all  can either thank me or blame me, depending on how things go this season.

 

So far, looking like a good investment!

 

Also my first time with Harper. Looking good so far.

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11 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

 

Also my first time with Harper. Looking good so far.

I reached for Harper early in the second round in his breakout year.  He was so much fun to own. 

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I hadn't seen any of his spring stats until just now. I don't put much thought into them but its certainly nice to see him crushing the baseball like he was in 2015. If he can find a middle ground between last year and 2015 I will be happy, but I wouldn't say no to a 2015 repeat (with some more steals to be greedy) that's for sure...

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