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Jason Kipnis 2017 Outlook

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Jason Kipnis.

29 years old. bats 2nd for the Indians.

 

he went from 6 HR (500AB) in 2014, to 9 HR (565) in 2015, to 23 HR (610) in 2016.

his FB% in those seasons.. 31.2%, 28.1%, and 37.4%.

 

what to expect in 2017?

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I think he has a drop in HR, but still has double digit. My projection for this guy, with the addition of EE and Lindor being a year older: 16HR, 101R, 85RBI, 18SB, .270AVG

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On 1/31/2017 at 8:28 PM, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I think he has a drop in HR, but still has double digit. My projection for this guy, with the addition of EE and Lindor being a year older: 16HR, 101R, 85RBI, 18SB, .270AVG

 

You're predicting that average goes down, HR goes down but Runs, RBI, and SB's all increase from last year.  Considering that EE is going to basically replace Napoli's stats from last year (.240 avg, 34 jacks and 101 RBI), the predictions don't quite compute for me.  I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just trying to figure out your thought process behind your predictions.  I'm trying to make a keeper decision on Kipnis which is why I'm so interested.

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25 minutes ago, Damn Yankee said:

 

You're predicting that average goes down, HR goes down but Runs, RBI, and SB's all increase from last year.  Considering that EE is going to basically replace Napoli's stats from last year (.240 avg, 34 jacks and 101 RBI), the predictions don't quite compute for me.  I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just trying to figure out your thought process behind your predictions.  I'm trying to make a keeper decision on Kipnis which is why I'm so interested.

EE doesn't impact his BA or his HR. I also don't think he's a true 20HR hitter. K% went up last season and he was fairly lucky (.324BABIP). Hard% was up 5.7%, which seems unsustainable to me given his track record. 13.1% HR/FB rate compared to 6.9% and 4.8% the prior two years.

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1 hour ago, Damn Yankee said:

 

You're predicting that average goes down, HR goes down but Runs, RBI, and SB's all increase from last year.  Considering that EE is going to basically replace Napoli's stats from last year (.240 avg, 34 jacks and 101 RBI), the predictions don't quite compute for me.  I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just trying to figure out your thought process behind your predictions.  I'm trying to make a keeper decision on Kipnis which is why I'm so interested.

Also feel free to shoot me a message. I dealt Kipnis last year for a good deal in a dynasty league.

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43 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

EE doesn't impact his BA or his HR. I also don't think he's a true 20HR hitter. K% went up last season and he was fairly lucky (.324BABIP). Hard% was up 5.7%, which seems unsustainable to me given his track record. 13.1% HR/FB rate compared to 6.9% and 4.8% the prior two years.

 

Depends on if you're putting any weight on the league wide power surge. 

 

Very confused by your comment on his BABIP that's .003 points off his career average. That's very par for course. 

 

He also struck out more and pulled the ball more both of which somewhat indicate he was trying to hit for more power, and many of his metrics were as good as his 2013 season which was really good before he got hurt in 2014. Plus he spiked his FB% to go along with his HR/FB%, so another indication of both trying to hit home runs and IMO increasing the chances he hits more HRs. 

 

So yeah, maybe 2016:2013::2017:2014 and we see his numbers dip but I think he figured something out that year and got a little hurt afterwards. After posting career highs in terms of making contact in 2015 and driving his BA way up, to see him turn on a few more pitches and sell out some contact for power doesn't really surprise me all that much at all. Did average more than 403 Feet per Homer. 

 

I have him at 19 HRs, so to some extent we're splitting hairs, but I guess I'm saying it sounds like I'd be less surprised if he pops 21-24 again next year. 

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Depends on if you're putting any weight on the league wide power surge. 

 

Very confused by your comment on his BABIP that's .003 points off his career average. That's very par for course. 

 

He also struck out more and pulled the ball more both of which somewhat indicate he was trying to hit for more power, and many of his metrics were as good as his 2013 season which was really good before he got hurt in 2014. Plus he spiked his FB% to go along with his HR/FB%, so another indication of both trying to hit home runs and IMO increasing the chances he hits more HRs. 

 

So yeah, maybe 2016:2013::2017:2014 and we see his numbers dip but I think he figured something out that year and got a little hurt afterwards. After posting career highs in terms of making contact in 2015 and driving his BA way up, to see him turn on a few more pitches and sell out some contact for power doesn't really surprise me all that much at all. Did average more than 403 Feet per Homer. 

 

I have him at 19 HRs, so to some extent we're splitting hairs, but I guess I'm saying it sounds like I'd be less surprised if he pops 21-24 again next year. 

I don't really put much weight into the power surge just because it was only one season. If it continues then yeah, my projections for Kipnis and many others would go up n the HR department. I also really hope it surges again... Loved the combo of great pitching and power hitting last season!

My comment of BABIP was a mistake. I glanced over at his FG page and looked quickly. For whatever reason I was thinking he had the BABIP number from 2015 but I still wrote the one from 2016. Brain fart.

 

I was looking at those other numbers, too, but I just had a tough time with him. A big part of my projection is, admittedly, a personal bias. I've watched the Indians for a few years now and have always felt that he was kinda fluky. So yeah, like I said, a bit of a personal bias. I get worried about injuries, too (3/5 seasons he got hurt) and at 29 his SB numbers might dip (12SB/8CS in 2015, 15/3 in 2016 makes me a little nervous - he never really looked that good at stealing in real life, but he has a few years of doing it).

Some guys I get nervous about and it totally reflects in my projections. I'm going to start putting declaimers when I project because I know I take (maybe?) too much stock in injuries and what my eyes see. 

 

And if the HR surge continues in the MLB I also wouldn't be surprised if he hits 20+, but I don't trust that it will simply because I don't know what cause it (weather?).

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Kipnis might be the most underrated fantasy player in the league

 

what makes his statistical projection so different from, say, Francisco Lindor (who is going 6+ rounds ahead of Kipnis)??

 

In this (theoretically) potent lineup, isn't Kipnis a solid bet to go: .280-100-20-80-20 ???

 

Steamer has Lindor at: .290-81-15-76-16  --- probably a bit low on the counting stats, but the point stands. If Lindor warrants a late 2nd or 3rd round pick, what is so different about Kipnis? Maybe we underrate him because he doesn't have the build or style of a star player. 

 

It's worth mentioning that in 2016, Kipnis had a higher OPS than Xander Bogaerts, the same OPS as Carlos Correa,  Interestingly, when Kipnis began an at-bat in 2016 with a 1-0 count, his OPS was .933. With an 0-1 count? .707 OPS.    get that first ball, Jason!

 

 

 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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8 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

Kipnis might be the most underrated fantasy player in the league

 

what makes his statistical projection so different from, say, Francisco Lindor (who is going 6+ rounds ahead of Kipnis)??

 

In this (theoretically) potent lineup, isn't Kipnis a solid bet to go: .280-100-20-80-20 ???

 

Steamer has Lindor at: .290-81-15-76-16  --- probably a bit low on the counting stats, but the point stands. If Lindor warrants a late 2nd or 3rd round pick, what is so different about Kipnis? Maybe we underrate him because he doesn't have the build or style of a star player. 

 

It's worth mentioning that in 2016, Kipnis had a higher OPS than Xander Bogaerts, the same OPS as Carlos Correa,  Interestingly, when Kipnis began an at-bat in 2016 with a 1-0 count, his OPS was .933. With an 0-1 count? .707 OPS.    get that first ball, Jason!

 

 

 

 

It's more low on the BA than the counting stats. .275 and .305-.315 is a world of difference when the rest is the same. 

 

This argument works better with Jose Ramirez than Jason Kipnis. Like a lot better. 

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Where would you rank Kipnis in the top 100 for redrafts vs top 100 for dynasty?

 

 

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Something to watch. But if this drags on, I'm not going near him on draft day. Shoulder injuries are one thing I don't f--- with.

 

 

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shut down another week

took him 119 overall last night in a ypro league.... so a 40ish pick discount right now

 

 

Edited by colepenhagen

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On 2/26/2017 at 8:51 AM, Pitches Love Velocity said:

Something to watch. But if this drags on, I'm not going near him on draft day. Shoulder injuries are one thing I don't f--- with.

 

 

 

 

200.gif

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I was a fan of his before this shoulder injury. I'm no doctor but rotator cuff injuries suck. I tweaked mine about 7 years ago and, though I don't have the same level of treatment or care as MLB players, I tried physical therapy and it's just never been the same. You move your shoulder a certain way and you get sharp shooting pain that I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy. Then sometimes for no damn reason it's just sore AF. If he strained it badly I could see this affecting him all year which obviously wouldn't be good for his swing and that oh so valuable power at the 2B position.

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He was supposed to get a 2nd opinion yesterday. I've scrounged the net, but can't find any update or anything from the Indians on what the doc said.  Can someone post an update, if they can find something/hear something.  Thanks.

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6 hours ago, BigPapi44 said:

He was supposed to get a 2nd opinion yesterday. I've scrounged the net, but can't find any update or anything from the Indians on what the doc said.  Can someone post an update, if they can find something/hear something.  Thanks.

Bump.

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Could be nothing but if my draft is tonight I'm avoiding him. I was very high on him but there's enough other 2nd basemen that he's not worth the risk for me. Hopefully he's fine though. Super underrated when healthy, even if his SB dry up

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Will miss most of April.  They are doing the right thing here and not letting him aggravate it.  Provided he gets rid of the inflammation, he should be fine for the rest of the season.  Still, buyer beware.

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I think the injury lingers all year affecting his season, i wouldn't draft him unless he's a real bargain because the 2b position is not deep.

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1 minute ago, azeri98 said:

I think the injury lingers all year affecting his season, i wouldn't draft him unless he's a real bargain because the 2b position is not deep.

I'm staying away from him too but I actually like the depth of the 2B position this year. You've got Altuve, Turner, Cano, Dozier, Murphy, Odor, Kinsler, LeMahieu, Gordon, Segura, Pedroia, Zobrist, Peraza, Forsythe, and Walker all outside of Kipnis. I'd be happy to have any one of the first 9-10 guys, some more than others due to the cost, as my starting 2B. The final 3-4 guys I would also be comfortable having as my starter at 2nd because they come at a better discount than the others meaning I would have been drafting other positions and maximizing my picks while the top 10 2B got taken. 

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