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David Johnson 2017 Outlook


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Beast Mode. Top 5 pick in redraft leagues, no doubt. If the blurb below is true then watch out. But can he achieve his goal, or at least match his play from the 2016 season?

 

David Johnson told PFT Live his "goal" is to record 1,000 yards both as a runner and a receiver.

The scary thing for opposing defenses is this goal is very attainable. Johnson came close with 1,239 yards on the ground and 879 yards through the air in 2016, and he thinks he was just a few mistakes away from a 1,000-1,000 season, which only Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk have done in NFL history. "The biggest thing is my route running," Johnson said. "I remember all the routes I messed up on and I probably would have had 1,000 yards this year." With the knee injury he suffered in Week 17 thankfully not a long-term concern, Johnson is locked in as a top-two fantasy running back for 2017.
 
 
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25 minutes ago, elite said:

Beast Mode. Top 5 pick in redraft leagues, no doubt. If the blurb below is true then watch out. But can he achieve his goal, or at least match his play from the 2016 season?

 

David Johnson told PFT Live his "goal" is to record 1,000 yards both as a runner and a receiver.

The scary thing for opposing defenses is this goal is very attainable. Johnson came close with 1,239 yards on the ground and 879 yards through the air in 2016, and he thinks he was just a few mistakes away from a 1,000-1,000 season, which only Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk have done in NFL history. "The biggest thing is my route running," Johnson said. "I remember all the routes I messed up on and I probably would have had 1,000 yards this year." With the knee injury he suffered in Week 17 thankfully not a long-term concern, Johnson is locked in as a top-two fantasy running back for 2017.
 
 

 

Yes. 

 

1.01 is appropriate ADP, regardless of scoring format. Anything less is robbery. 

 

/thread

 

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Starting to sound like Palmer is retiring (thank god). One of the local radio shows yesterday was talking about how he took his kids out of Phoenix schools and moved out of town already. Would love to see a Mike Glennon land in Arizona. All he has to be is serviceable, launch the deep ball to Brown and JJ, and use DJ as the ultimate safety valve; and not be a turnover machine/liability like Palmer was all season. DJ's route tree is also going to expand further in 2017. The Cards defense and offensive line just needs to stay healthy, and the team will function as a defense/run-first team with explosiveness when necessary.

 

2000 total yards and 15 touchdowns is a gimme for DJ for the next five years. Looking forward to the Cardinals 2017 season (if Palmer is gone).

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What happens if Palmer retires? If larry retires?

IMO, if were talking about the big 3 at rb(bell, zeke, dj) i might put him to the bottom of that list. Depending on the qb they get, will he check down to dj and have eyes for DJ as much? Will teams sell out to stop run? Will this new qb keep defenses honest with a threat of passing? 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

Starting to sound like Palmer is retiring (thank god). One of the local radio shows yesterday was talking about how he took his kids out of Phoenix schools and moved out of town already. Would love to see a Mike Glennon land in Arizona. All he has to be is serviceable, launch the deep ball to Brown and JJ, and use DJ as the ultimate safety valve; and not be a turnover machine/liability like Palmer was all season. DJ's route tree is also going to expand further in 2017. The Cards defense and offensive line just needs to stay healthy, and the team will function as a defense/run-first team with explosiveness when necessary.

 

2000 total yards and 15 touchdowns is a gimme for DJ for the next five years. Looking forward to the Cardinals 2017 season (if Palmer is gone).

sounds like the Palmer reports were inaccurate, at least for now.  He's denied the claims.  I like a player like Glennon, but i start to wonder what a QB change does to this offense as a whole.  Palmer was a TO machine, but he also threw for 4000+ yards.  People overlook how truly hard it is to get the ball to an RB with the way DJ is used.  Expanding his route tree could only make that even harder for a less experienced QB.  I LOVE DJ and he's top 3 regardless more then likely but i start to wonder as the Palmer rumors swirl.  Im not sold a change at QB spells greater success for DJ

 

If say Palmer retires, i might be more inclined to move Zeke ahead of him.  Less ???'s around him then DJ/Bell as of today at least

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If Palmer retires (I think he has another year in him), I could see them making a run at Romo, then Fitz having one of his best years.

 

it would be wild to see them meet the Cowboys in the playoffs if it happened.

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2 minutes ago, psygolf said:

If Palmer retires (I think he has another year in him), I could see them making a run at Romo, then Fitz having one of his best years.

 

it would be wild to see them meet the Cowboys in the playoffs if it happened.

i honestly thought of Romo yesterday right when i saw the Palmer rumors.  Makes a lot of sense given what is in place in AZ.    I think Palmer/Fitz both have one more year in them, but i guess we will see soon enough.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, BlakeP42 said:

sounds like the Palmer reports were inaccurate, at least for now.  He's denied the claims.  I like a player like Glennon, but i start to wonder what a QB change does to this offense as a whole.  Palmer was a TO machine, but he also threw for 4000+ yards.  People overlook how truly hard it is to get the ball to an RB with the way DJ is used.  Expanding his route tree could only make that even harder for a less experienced QB.  I LOVE DJ and he's top 3 regardless more then likely but i start to wonder as the Palmer rumors swirl.  Im not sold a change at QB spells greater success for DJ

 

The QB doesn't have to be Drew Brees to make this offense work. Palmer missed Week 5, Stanton started and DJ had his highest rushing total of the season (157). Throwing for 4,000 yards isn't really that big a deal anymore. 13 QBs did it in 2016 and it would have been 16 (or half the league's starters) if Carr, Brady and Roethlisberger didn't miss significant time. Its like 1,000 yards for RBs isn't a big deal anymore since that's basically 63 yards/game. Expanding DJ's route tree means lining him up outside and in the slot more as the 3rd WR, with another RB in the backfield. DJ had four games with double-digit targets; and just from memory he ran at least five go-routes this season. Very much looking forward to 2017 for the Cardinals if Palmer is gone.

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8 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

The QB doesn't have to be Drew Brees to make this offense work. Palmer missed Week 5, Stanton started and DJ had his highest rushing total of the season (157). Throwing for 4,000 yards isn't really that big a deal anymore. 13 QBs did it in 2016 and it would have been 16 (or half the league's starters) if Carr, Brady and Roethlisberger didn't miss significant time. Its like 1,000 yards for RBs isn't a big deal anymore since that's basically 63 yards/game. Expanding DJ's route tree means lining him up outside and in the slot more as the 3rd WR, with another RB in the backfield. DJ had four games with double-digit targets; and just from memory he ran at least five go-routes this season. Very much looking forward to 2017 for the Cardinals if Palmer is gone.

good points, esp about Stanton, granted I'm not of the belief that a guy like Glennon is coming in and throwing for 4000 yards even though i can agree, we see more and more QBs hitting that mark in a pass happy/flag happy league.  Funny, Freeman was the only RB this year to rush for a 1000 yards back to back seasons from last year to this(thanks Pete for that nugget), but i get your point overall, its all a bit more common in this era of football.

Now, that being said, its still can be difficult as i said if AZ downgrades at QB.  I understand your concern for Palmer, i really do, but the idea that Glennon or someone comparable steps in a gets the AZ offense humming along at a tune to where DJ has 2000 is a gimme, i find overreaching as of now.  That one game for DJ with Stanton is a good example, but what if DC's were game planning weekly for Stanton? I know you know Stanton is not good, so eventually it would catch up with Him and the AZ offense, IMO.  Like i said, i think DJ regardless will be worthy of a top 3 FF pick in any format, but a QB change could shake up where he sits in my top 3.  I bet if you ask DJ if he wants Palmer or Stanton in 17' the answer will be quickly Palmer.  There is no replacement for experience in almost anything.    Its just something I'm kicking around in my head after yesterday's Palmer rumor.  I may be totally wrong about DJ and a QB change.  I just know that below average QB's don't usually lead to good things in this league.  A LOT of it also would depend on who they bring in.  If say for example its Tony Romo, I'm all aboard

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5 hours ago, BlakeP42 said:

good points, esp about Stanton, granted I'm not of the belief that a guy like Glennon is coming in and throwing for 4000 yards even though i can agree, we see more and more QBs hitting that mark in a pass happy/flag happy league.  Funny, Freeman was the only RB this year to rush for a 1000 yards back to back seasons from last year to this(thanks Pete for that nugget), but i get your point overall, its all a bit more common in this era of football.

Now, that being said, its still can be difficult as i said if AZ downgrades at QB.  I understand your concern for Palmer, i really do, but the idea that Glennon or someone comparable steps in a gets the AZ offense humming along at a tune to where DJ has 2000 is a gimme, i find overreaching as of now.  That one game for DJ with Stanton is a good example, but what if DC's were game planning weekly for Stanton? I know you know Stanton is not good, so eventually it would catch up with Him and the AZ offense, IMO.  Like i said, i think DJ regardless will be worthy of a top 3 FF pick in any format, but a QB change could shake up where he sits in my top 3.  I bet if you ask DJ if he wants Palmer or Stanton in 17' the answer will be quickly Palmer.  There is no replacement for experience in almost anything.    Its just something I'm kicking around in my head after yesterday's Palmer rumor.  I may be totally wrong about DJ and a QB change.  I just know that below average QB's don't usually lead to good things in this league.  A LOT of it also would depend on who they bring in.  If say for example its Tony Romo, I'm all aboard

 

Stanton was gawd awful in that game (11 for 28) and the Cardinals still put up 33 points and a win. Granted it was against the 49ers, but Stanton did what he was asked to do: don't turn the ball over. That's all a guy like Glennon will be asked to do too, while keeping the defense honest by launching deep balls a couple times every drive; which is really his only strength. Stanton couldn't/can't even do that, but the team was fine because DJ touched the ball 30 times. If Glennon comes to town and shows some aptitude, Arians will allow him to do more. But make no mistake, this is DJ's team no matter who the QB is.

 

I just don't understand all the Romo hype. The guy has played in 4 games the past two seasons (not counting the mop-up duty he had this year in one game). I was onboard with this as well, but after thinking more about it, I just think Romo is done. He seems to get injured if the wind blows on him these days. I'd feel much better about the Cardinals chances with a guy like Glennon who the staff can coach up vs. a Romo who may not even make it through training camp.

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I think you can maybe chalk up a Zeke vs Johnson debate. Due to the fact that the receiving threat Zeke provides is not nearly as big as Johnson plus I just think Johnson is a better player. However, much like the 3 WRs last year, Bell should be consensus #1 and these 3 guys should be consensus top 3. 

 

Bell vs Johnson should not be a question. I believe Bell is a better player and will be in a better offense likely by far. TDs can be flukey and Bell will have a ton more chances to score.

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I think you can maybe chalk up a Zeke vs Johnson debate. Due to the fact that the receiving threat Zeke provides is not nearly as big as Johnson plus I just think Johnson is a better player. However, much like the 3 WRs last year, Bell should be consensus #1 and these 3 guys should be consensus top 3. 

 

Bell vs Johnson should not be a question. I believe Bell is a better player and will be in a better offense likely by far. TDs can be flukey and Bell will have a ton more chances to score.

Bell also has a lot more suspension risk than either Zeke or Johnson.  FWIW, if I take off my fandom blinders, I think my order is probably DJ, Bell, Zeke.  All 3 are a threat for 2000+ total yards and 20 TDs. All 3 are on teams that have proven they know how to get their talent out of them, and are surrounded by good supporting casts.  But I take Johnson first as a neutral fan.  But the difference is close enough IMO that if I'm a Cowboys/Steelers/Cardinals fan, I'm taking my team's player and not feeling bad about it.  Injury is the only thing that's going to realistically hurt any of them significantly.

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17 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

Bell also has a lot more suspension risk than either Zeke or Johnson.  FWIW, if I take off my fandom blinders, I think my order is probably DJ, Bell, Zeke.  All 3 are a threat for 2000+ total yards and 20 TDs. All 3 are on teams that have proven they know how to get their talent out of them, and are surrounded by good supporting casts.  But I take Johnson first as a neutral fan.  But the difference is close enough IMO that if I'm a Cowboys/Steelers/Cardinals fan, I'm taking my team's player and not feeling bad about it.  Injury is the only thing that's going to realistically hurt any of them significantly.

 

Standard - Zeke, DJ, Bell

Ppr - DJ, Zeke, Bell

 

Your last line is why Bell is last for me.   I think he's having surgery on his groin.  That would mean that each of the last three years his season has ended due to a significant lower body injury.

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34 minutes ago, jbshaw said:

Bell also has a lot more suspension risk than either Zeke or Johnson.  FWIW, if I take off my fandom blinders, I think my order is probably DJ, Bell, Zeke.  All 3 are a threat for 2000+ total yards and 20 TDs. All 3 are on teams that have proven they know how to get their talent out of them, and are surrounded by good supporting casts.  But I take Johnson first as a neutral fan.  But the difference is close enough IMO that if I'm a Cowboys/Steelers/Cardinals fan, I'm taking my team's player and not feeling bad about it.  Injury is the only thing that's going to realistically hurt any of them significantly.

Bell has never been suspended during the season. So unless your draft is in like March not relevant.

 

D.J just suffered a pretty severe injury while Bell has played the entire year and missed a playoff game due to a groin injury which frankly isn't very significant.

 

Thus, I don't really understand either of those points.

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23 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Bell has never been suspended during the season. So unless your draft is in like March not relevant.

 

D.J just suffered a pretty severe injury while Bell has played the entire year and missed a playoff game due to a groin injury which frankly isn't very significant.

 

Thus, I don't really understand either of those points.

 

Bell is possibly looking at surgery.  TBD.

 

DJ doesn't need surgery for his injury.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Bell has never been suspended during the season. So unless your draft is in like March not relevant.

If DJ or Zeke smokes pot in the season, they get a slap on the wrist and minor suspension.  Bell misses a season and has a history of smoking dope. Not sure how someone can say the risk isn't greater.  Bell isn't Gordon, but there is extra risk there. 

1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

 

D.J just suffered a pretty severe injury while Bell has played the entire year and missed a playoff game due to a groin injury which frankly isn't very significant.

 

Thus, I don't really understand either of those points.

I'm not saying I'd take DJ ahead of Bell because of injuries they currently have, or even injury risk (I haven't seen an Arian Foster-esque tendency for soft tissue injuries in any of them. For the record, I believe the most recent news is surgery is a possibility for Bell, so that sounds plenty significant. Meanwhile, it isn't needed for DJ.  I'm saying I think the only reason you don't end up within a couple PPG (standard, PPR favors Bell & DJ) of each other is if one of them gets injured.

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I think he'll faceplant in trying to do that.
Make no mistake, the offense runs through Johnson but the team had as few playmakers as they will ever have on the field last year. I see sweeping changes at QB and/or WR in the near future. They may try to take the load off of Johnson's back a little more this year so he doesn't break down physically.
Regardless, he's efficient enough so it won't matter. Also, it's mostly about the touchdowns anyways. RB1 overall but he won't hit 1k/1k rushing and receiving. 
 

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32 minutes ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

I think he'll faceplant in trying to do that.
Make no mistake, the offense runs through Johnson but the team had as few playmakers as they will ever have on the field last year. I see sweeping changes at QB and/or WR in the near future. They may try to take the load off of Johnson's back a little more this year so he doesn't break down physically.
Regardless, he's efficient enough so it won't matter. Also, it's mostly about the touchdowns anyways. RB1 overall but he won't hit 1k/1k rushing and receiving. 
 

 

1k/1k is incredibly difficult  (stating the obvious here).  With health the 1k rushing is a given.   The receiving?  

 

He'd need about 8 targets per game with a 75% catch rate and 10.5 ypc to hit 1000.  Haven't looked at last year's numbers in totality to see how realistic the rate stats are.  The targets are obviously dependent on who the other receiving options are. 

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1 hour ago, 96mnc said:

 

1k/1k is incredibly difficult  (stating the obvious here).  With health the 1k rushing is a given.   The receiving?  

 

He'd need about 8 targets per game with a 75% catch rate and 10.5 ypc to hit 1000.  Haven't looked at last year's numbers in totality to see how realistic the rate stats are.  The targets are obviously dependent on who the other receiving options are. 

Yeah at the very least I don't think the team should count on John Brown to be the #2 or resign floyd. The team should draft a WR at some point especially with Fitzgerald aging. One thing that was missing from johnson's incredible 2016 campaign was playoff wins. It's not good for david johnson to be the only source of offense and the only thing the defense has to worry about from a team perspective.

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35 minutes ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

Yeah at the very least I don't think the team should count on John Brown to be the #2 or resign floyd. The team should draft a WR at some point especially with Fitzgerald aging. One thing that was missing from johnson's incredible 2016 campaign was playoff wins. It's not good for david johnson to be the only source of offense and the only thing the defense has to worry about from a team perspective.

 

Floyd is gone obviously.

I don't know what to think of John Brown going forward health wise.  Other players have been able to play with the sickle cell trait though.   Guess we'll just have to see.

Jaron Brown is intriguing.

JJ Nelson can at least be a deep threat.

 

I agree that they need to draft a wr at some point though. 

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14 hours ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

He needs to stay humble and not upset the football gods.

 

How is that not being fumble? He simply stated a goal of his. Many players have goals. They want to set NFL records and become parts of select groups of players at their position. If not for a couple games last season and getting injured in the last game he would have reached that goal.

 

It is a goal within reach.

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