mysonx3

2017 Middle Relievers Thread

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Wandy: 71.4% GB% and a 27% Whiff%

 

Nobody can hit him right now. Peacock also looks good but he seems like the better candidate to crash.

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Not bringing up any new names here, but some notes on three I'm pretty sold on:

Wandy Peralta

He's thrown 113 pitches and gotten 31 whiffs (27%, leads all RP by a wide margin). Justin Verlander has gotten 35 whiffs - 4 more whiffs than Peralta in nearly 300 more pitches. If you limit it to just offspeed pitches, Peralta has gotten 27 whiffs on 61 pitches. Among pitchers with more offspeed swinging strikes than Peralta, the lowest number of total offspeed pitches is 132 (Devenski), which is more than double as many as Peralta. Devenski has gotten 28 offspeed whiffs - exactly one more than Peralta. Peralta's 44.26% offspeed SwStr% ranks first in all of baseball (min. 25 pitches), and nearly eleven percentage points higher than second place (Putnam). The gap between Peralta and Putnam is larger than the gap between Putnam and Blake Parker (39th). (Side note: 4 of the top 5 in terms of offspeed whiff% are the four I'm writing about - the other is Raisel Iglesias - which is interesting since I chose my four before making that leaderboard). The crazy stats could go on forever. Peralta's only blemish is that the spin rate on his 96 mph heater is only 2133 RPM, placing him in the 20th percentile.

Jacob Barnes

You may have noticed above how I said "among pitchers with more offspeed swinging strikes than Peralta". The reason I phrased it that way is because Barnes actually has the same number of offspeed whiffs as Peralta, albeit in 21 more pitches. His offspeed SwStr% ranks third behind only Peralta and Putnam at 32.93%. Unlike Peralta, who mixes sliders and changeups (both with devastating whiff rates), Barnes' offspeed whiffs come entirely on his nasty cutter/slider hybrid that he throws nearly 60% of the time. Also unlike Peralta, Barnes fastball has an above average spin rate (62nd percentile).

Zach Putnam

That splitter, man. Even though he uses it more than his fastball (53 splitters vs 50 fastballs), it manages an absurd 34% whiff rate and 63.6% groundball rate. The splitter propels him to second on the Offspeed Whiff% leaderboard. What he has that the rest of this group doesn't: a track record. He's posted a whiff rate of 16.9% or higher each of the last two years, and his splitter is on pace to top the 20% whiffs mark for the seventh consecutive season.

Jose LeClerc

Like the other three, LeClerc is in the top five in terms of offspeed whiff%, coming in fifth with what Statcast calls a slider but is really a cut change featuring a 12 mph velocity gap and 7.1 inches of relative drop compared to his fastball. What LeClerc has that the others don't is a fastball that is also elite, owning a 14.3% whiff rate on the four-seamer (the only of this group in double digits). That's backed up by his powerful velocity (96.1 MPH) and uber-elite spin rate (percentile rank of 99.98). His issue has always been walks, but so far this year he's issued only one in exactly nine innings. His Zone% is horrible (5th percentile), so we should expect some walk rate regression, but his 2nd best in baseball O-Swing rate and well-above average F-Strike% should keep that in check. He also excels at getting pop-ups, getting one on 20.0% of his batted balls so far this year, following up his 12.8% between AA, AAA and MLB last year and 14.4% at AA in 2015.

 

These four have combined for the following numbers:

35 IP, 47 K, 0.77 ERA, 0.54 WHIP

In case anyone asks, I'd rank them Peralta, LeClerc, Barnes, Putnam, but honestly could be talked into ranking them in any order.

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19 minutes ago, mysonx3 said:

but some notes on three

Looks like you guys got a bonus fourth one. Don't worry, I won't charge extra this time.

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putnam's elbow is barking so watch out for that. but yeah all four of those guys are fun. you owe me a nickel for saying wandy's name though

 

 

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4 hours ago, placeholder said:

Are we grabbing Hernandez over Wandy?

 

no. there's a good chance ariel's getting sent right back down, even as good as he was. that was definitely the original plan - they only brought him up because they needed a fresh arm, a couple of their first-string depth guys (romano, bonilla) had already thrown the last couple days so weren't available, and ariel's on the 40-man to protect him from rule 5. he was way down in AA and isn't thought of as a finished product yet due to the command stuff. was he good enough to change their minds? we'll see. my guess is no

 

but if he does go down, remember his name. personally i remember it by thinking of the little mermaid

 

Edited by wily mo

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What about Tommy Kahnle?

 

* almost doubled the SwStr this year (19.6 from 10.8)

* gained 2 MPH on his FB (98 from 96)

* mostly avoiding giving away free passes ( 3.9  from 16.8)

* Has not given up a single FB and only 5 LDs in 6.2 IP so far.

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5 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

 

Wandy Peralta

The crazy stats could go on forever. Peralta's only blemish is that the spin rate on his 96 mph heater is only 2133 RPM, placing him in the 20th percentile.

 

 

I was gonna give him a spin but after reading this I'm OUT

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This is my first post on this thread and I'm just curious as to what everyone's strategy is with middle relievers and setup guys with good ratios in terms of your overall pitching strategy and rotation? It's hard to make roster spots for these type of guys.

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I thought it was interesting that Knebel pitched the 8th and J.Barnes the 9th last night. Has Barnes moved ahead of Knebel in the hierarchy or am I making something out of nothing ?

Edited by fletch44

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I've been filling my available spots with these kind of middle relief pitchers year after year. Pretty much giving up a chance to win strikeouts but I win all other ratios categories. At times I even win strikeouts. I'd rather load up on hitting. With this strategy you pretty much always win era and whip.

Clearly you must adopt this philosophy prior to drafting so you could load up on bats. With the idea you will hopefully dominate in hitting and pick up era and whip.

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4 minutes ago, montgrove said:

I've been filling my available spots with these kind of middle relief pitchers year after year. Pretty much giving up a chance to win strikeouts but I win all other ratios categories. At times I even win strikeouts. I'd rather load up on hitting. With this strategy you pretty much always win era and whip.

Clearly you must adopt this philosophy prior to drafting so you could load up on bats. With the idea you will hopefully dominate in hitting and pick up era and whip.

 

Interesting. I may explore this next year.

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I should add that each year April is pretty Rocky for me. It takes me a few weeks to acclimate to the new middle relief Kings of ratio boosting. Once I load up on them in free agency it's smooth sailing.

For instance someone just dropped Andrew Miller in my league. I am salivating right now.

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Some fantasy players tell you never to punk categories but I feel like one everybody is floating Downstream trying two snag the same fish I'd like to dig and try a different approach. I hope nobody from my home league is reading haha.

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1 hour ago, fletch44 said:

I thought it was interesting that Knebel pitched the 8th and J.Barnes the 9th last night. Has Barnes moved ahead of Knebel in the hierarchy or am I making something out of nothing ?

Barnes is the better pitcher, I would go with him over Knebel even if he was only in the 7th. But yes, looks like Barnes has leap frogged him.

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2 hours ago, Joesh said:

A bit off topic but where can we see spinrate data?

Here's the 2016 fastball leaderboard. Just change the settings for pitch type, year and the minimums to adjust the leaderboard to your liking.

Link

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3 hours ago, Vanquish2073 said:

 

I was gonna give him a spin but after reading this I'm OUT

 

(re: wandy peralta FB very low spin rate)

 

i think this is an overreaction. it's not necessarily true that "high spin = good, low spin = bad". having an extremely low spin rate doesn't mean his FB is a meatball. it might actually also be helpful

 

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2016/11/spin-rate-what-we-know-now/


high spin gives rise, low spin gives sink. this is all sort of speculative, but the feeling is, you end up with high spin guys who throw high in the zone and get whiffs when guys swing under it (the ryan buchter approach), but low spin guys get sink and more grounders. and it's the guys in the middle with average spin who get squared up (unless they have some other type of movement, really good location, etc) 

 

wandy's GB rate is currently 71%. that's good, right?

 

 

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1 minute ago, wily mo said:

 

(re: wandy peralta FB very low spin rate)

 

i think this is an overreaction. it's not necessarily true that "high spin = good, low spin = bad". having an extremely low spin rate doesn't mean his FB is a meatball. it might actually also be helpful

 

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2016/11/spin-rate-what-we-know-now/


high spin gives rise, low spin gives sink. this is all sort of speculative, but the feeling is, you end up with high spin guys who throw high in the zone and get whiffs when guys swing under it (the ryan buchter approach), but low spin guys get sink and more grounders. and it's the guys in the middle with average spin who get squared up (unless they have some other type of movement, really good location, etc) 

 

wandy's GB rate is currently 71%. that's good, right?

 

 

 

Haha I was just joking with ya bro because that's such a small problem to have when everything else with Wandy looks so elite. I really appreciate your work in this thread.

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Name I haven't seen yet:

Anthony Swarzak

Only Swarzak and Cody Allen are top 10 in both SwStr% and F-Strike% among RP. Incidentally, those two also have nearly identical O-Swing% - 38.8% for Allen and 38.7% for Swarzak, good for 21st and 22nd among RP. He has the 14th best Contact% and 8th best Z-Contact%. Running a 1.62 SIERA

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33 minutes ago, Vanquish2073 said:

 

Haha I was just joking with ya bro because that's such a small problem to have when everything else with Wandy looks so elite. I really appreciate your work in this thread.

 

ahhhhh i get it

 

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12 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Would pairing Wandy with Jose LeClerc create a pretty nice MRP? 

 

i'm not sure exactly what MRP stands for here, but those are two of the best currently widely available guys IMO, probably the two best. so i dig it, whatever it means

 

here's this morning's Small Sample SwStr% report:

 

(even smaller samples noted)

 

1. hoyt (1.2 IP)

2. wandy

3. ariel (2.2 IP)

4. cody allen

5. leclerc

6. jorge de la rosa? ok

7. pedro baez

8. d-robertson

9. swarzak

10. dillon overton? (1.1 IP, sub-90 FB, prob disregard)

11. devenski

12. clippard

13. kahnle

14. putnam

15. andrew bailey (3 IP)

 

there's swarzak, as mentioned above

 

i haven't dug into kahnle myself but somebody else just picked him up in my league, so that might be happening

 

hope putnam's elbow is ok because he's been pretty great

 

three white sox in the top 15 with no nate jones is kinda crazy

 

 

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status updates: putnam to DL. ariel optioned back to AA

 

 

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