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Tom Brady 2017 Outlook

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1 hour ago, floppy said:

 I guess the big queston is. do u spend a 3rd round pick on him because if u don't grab him there, u know someone else will.

 

I think I like his "safeness" better in the third round than many of the RBs and WRs going there. Many guys with question marks - Crowell, Miller, Hopkins, Robinson, Watkins

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Are Brady owners cuffing him with Garappolo?  I know there are a ton of solid qbs you can grab in late rounds, but if Brady were to go down, Jimmy G has the potential to outscore those guys (Rivers, Palmer, etc).

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6 minutes ago, herschel said:

Are Brady owners cuffing him with Garappolo?  I know there are a ton of solid qbs you can grab in late rounds, but if Brady were to go down, Jimmy G has the potential to outscore those guys (Rivers, Palmer, etc).

 

All things equal, experienced, proven starters on good offenses (like Rivers and Palmer) are more attractive, but Jimmy G. will come free.  Heck, if you want to endure a little risk, you can roster an early season flier and then add Garappolo when the flier looks like it won't pan out.  Your suggestion has legs.   

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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No one has brought the story up Brady lost Edelman for the season and how it may affect his productivity?

I know the Pats still have weapons but losing a weapon that you've built and maintained a rapport for years has to have a negative effect right?    

Or is this a non-issue?  

If not, how much will it take away from Brady?

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Even with Edelman out, I expect a monster season from Brady.  Looking at the Patriots' roster, I'm expecting much of their "running game" to be short dump off passes to RBs, and quick slants over the middle to slots WRs and Gronk.  Brady also has a talented weapon in Cooks that he hasn't had in some time.  I get that he's 40 years old, but no one looks after his health more than Brady.  With all the weapons this team has in the passing game, I expect a historic campaign from the Pats and Brady.

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13 hours ago, jfuchs91 said:

Even with Edelman out, I expect a monster season from Brady.  Looking at the Patriots' roster, I'm expecting much of their "running game" to be short dump off passes to RBs, and quick slants over the middle to slots WRs and Gronk.  Brady also has a talented weapon in Cooks that he hasn't had in some time.  I get that he's 40 years old, but no one looks after his health more than Brady.  With all the weapons this team has in the passing game, I expect a historic campaign from the Pats and Brady.

 

I've got a bit different philosophy, I think we're going to actually see Brady throwing more deep passes to Cooks and Hogan than we're used to seeing from the Patriots.

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On 4/22/2017 at 5:24 PM, Lord_Varys said:

 

Brady:

2015: 25.4 points per game

2016: 24.7 points per game

 

Luck:

2015: 24.8 points per game

2016: 25.5 points per game

 

Good call on waiting for Luck.

 

But from QB1 to QB10?  Not so fast, my friend.  (I'll compare to QB6 because I can copy/paste this from elsewhere)

 

In 2016, QB1 (Rodgers) to QB6 (Prescott) was separated by 94 points.  This is 5.9 points per week.  (Also note that QB6 to QB18 is only separated by 30 points -- "there's a lot of guys you can draft late who will be strong", but strong relative to what?)  Compare that to TY Hilton, who will be a 2nd round WR this year, and who finished with 176 points last year.  This is 11 points per game.  This is only 5.3 points per game better than DeVante Parker, who you could wait and take around the same time as Prescott, I'm guessing.

 

You talk about him not being worth the investment.  But from a raw statistics standpoint, a 4500/40 or 4800/38 type QB is significantly different from QB6-14 -- even moreso than a 2nd round WR is different from late round JAGs.

 

This is all 4 pts per pass TD, and standard scoring.

All my leagues are 6 points for TD. FBG cheat sheets for 6 td pass put both Rodgers and Brady in 1st round discussion.

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1 hour ago, mar1kle said:

All my leagues are 6 points for TD. FBG cheat sheets for 6 td pass put both Rodgers and Brady in 1st round discussion.

Someone has figured it out.

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24 minutes ago, wendellrott said:

 

anyone else have this love hate relationship

 

chances of Bradey throwing for 50?

There's only 2 defenses I'd be worried about.  My bold prediction for the Pats was that Brady gets at least 56 for the single season record.  While I'm not necessarily confident on that, I think he's as close to a lock for 45+ as possible. 

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On 8/17/2017 at 0:37 PM, herschel said:

Are Brady owners cuffing him with Garappolo?  I know there are a ton of solid qbs you can grab in late rounds, but if Brady were to go down, Jimmy G has the potential to outscore those guys (Rivers, Palmer, etc).

 

No. To be honest this is a ridiculous strategy.

 

Brady has been a starter for 15 seasons, and in exactly 1 of those seasons did he miss games to injury. 

 

Banking on that happening again is based on what logic? 

 

Even if it did, there are 5 other guys like Palmer or Hoyer you could grab that would get similar points as Jimmy. And if that isn't good enough trade for someone. 

 

 

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On Thursday, August 17, 2017 at 10:37 AM, herschel said:

Are Brady owners cuffing him with Garappolo?  I know there are a ton of solid qbs you can grab in late rounds, but if Brady were to go down, Jimmy G has the potential to outscore those guys (Rivers, Palmer, etc).

I handcuffed him in my two QB league. There are only 3 starters left and they're awful. I have a low waiver and would have no chance at Jimmy if Brady went down.

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14 hours ago, SpartanEric said:

 

No. To be honest this is a ridiculous strategy.

 

Brady has been a starter for 15 seasons, and in exactly 1 of those seasons did he miss games to injury. 

 

Banking on that happening again is based on what logic? 

 

Even if it did, there are 5 other guys like Palmer or Hoyer you could grab that would get similar points as Jimmy. And if that isn't good enough trade for someone. 

 

 

The strategy doesnt really have to do with "banking" on Brady getting injured as much as it has to do with a lack of available back-ups.  id be surprised if palmer was unowned in any 12+ leagues and personally i would much rather have the starting qb on what most consider to be the strongest offense in the league than someone like brian hoyer.  chances are garappalo went undrafted, so he can be picked up on the ww if brady were to go down, but at that point, you would need to pay for him.  i dont think the strategy is any more rediculous (actually probably less so) than drafting any other 2nd qb (dak, rivers, etc) if you own brady.  that being said, if i have a top qb like brady, i personally dont draft a 2nd qb.

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16 hours ago, wendellrott said:

 

anyone else have this love hate relationship

 

chances of Bradey throwing for 50?

 

he will throw in the 50 range

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2 hours ago, Pooskay said:

 

he will throw in the 50 range

Do you guys think if he's in the range to break the TD record, temptation will set in and they go for it?

Same with going undefeated?

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15 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

Do you guys think if he's in the range to break the TD record, temptation will set in and they go for it?

Same with going undefeated?

 

no doubt. that's the NE way.

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Bad game. Brady missed Edleman tonight. His security blanket. If Brady has another bad game next week I'm pushing to trade him. The Edleman injury hurts this offense more than most think. It's only a matter of time before Gronk gets injured as well. Amendola is already hurt also and can't play a full game.... Literally Brady will only have Cooks, Hogan and Newbie Dorsett to rely on soon. I don't like it.

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Brady looked off.  His long balls were terrible.  Accuracy was dismal.  Missed Gronk all over the place.  Some shots weren't even close.  What a bad start for the SB champ, the GOAT according to Marky Mark.  

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1 minute ago, SyNdicateZ said:

Bad game. Brady missed Edleman tonight. His security blanket. If Brady has another bad game next week I'm pushing to trade him. The Edleman injury hurts this offense more than most think. It's only a matter of time before Gronk gets injured as well. Amendola is already hurt also and can't play a full game.... Literally Brady will only have Cooks, Hogan and Newbie Dorsett to rely on soon. I don't like it.

Yup... Edelman was the guy who kept drives alive in between the 20's.

 

But I wouldn't overreact too much. Gronk had a near TD as did Cooks.

 

KC's secondary is elite and Justin Houston is an animal. Big bounce back game coming next week.

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Yea I am sort of really upset atm but tryin to just reel it in and let next week get here, but I had a team with Brady, gronk, Johnson etc... And I thought I'd be lookin at 15 to 20 with gronk and a 30 spot with Brady tonight and I just hope it's the jitters or something because despite the score they looked pretty bad. Brady deep passes looked rough, I don't know but let's hope this ship quickly turns directions 

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He looked really, really bad tonight. I was kind of shocked after how calm, collected, and in control he looked a mere 7 months ago during the Super Bowl. Obviously just one game, but not what you want to see to start the season.

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Brady NEVER has 2 bad games in a row....like I said above...I won't overreact with the performance tonight. BUT if he struggles again next week its a BAD sign going foward IMO.

 

 

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If he plays bad again next week I'm buying him for cheap. He's only averaged less than 20 ppg in the last decade. 

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Brady's throws were terribly erratic. Wildly overthrowing guys 10 yards away. He did a jump pass on a 5 yard crossing route that went right in the dirt. When he tried to go deep it just floated there forever. The one long completion he did have to Cooks would have been a touchdown if it wasn't underthrown. He couldn't thread the needle in tight coverage like he used to. 

This performance looked every bit as bad as 2015 Peyton Manning. Maybe I'm overreacting but it really looked to me like his age started to show tonight. If he has a bad game against the saints next week...might be time to start looking in another direction.

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