JSA2422

2017 Vent & Rant Thread

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35 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

It is skilled based for the most part. Gotta play the waivers, do research, and study. 

 

Injuries are bad luck. But if you manage around them, you can easily win. 

It is not. You can play the waivers, do your research and study. (..?) Is there a test coming? 

Injuries play a part but so do defenses, game flow and basic luck for your players in your starting lineup. 

 

One week a team scores 150 points the next week 75. How can you call that skill? Its dumb luck. 

 

Yes there is some skill involved... I always believe in the range 20/80 skill/luck 

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It's like Texas holdem. Skill plays into sticking around and getting yourself in the best position to win it all. But anytime you go all in luck is a major factor. You could have pocket aces cracked by rags. 

 

The skill is making the playoffs and overcoming the bad beats of the season just enough to survive. During the regular season you can have the unlucky week and live to fight another day.

 

But in a win or go home format that goes out the window and luck becomes huge, because you are essentially all in, against an opponent who if he made it this far usually owns an equally strong hand. 

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3 hours ago, shakestreet said:

It is not. You can play the waivers, do your research and study. (..?) Is there a test coming? 

Injuries play a part but so do defenses, game flow and basic luck for your players in your starting lineup. 

 

One week a team scores 150 points the next week 75. How can you call that skill? Its dumb luck. 

 

Yes there is some skill involved... I always believe in the range 20/80 skill/luck 

 

I think that 20/80 is a bit crazy. There are going to be people who get lucky, outliers who bizarrely win, and those who get terribly unlucky, but for the most part the amount of work that you put into it is going to have a lot of say in the outcome. 

 

There's a lot that can be said for actually watching the games. It's one thing to read the rankings, read the stats, go on the message boards, and analyze the data, but there's no substitute actually watching the teams play, seeing how the players on your team, the waiver wire, and opposing defenses are playing, what the trends are, and trying to make sense of their stories to create the most accurate short-term expectation. Most of us don't have time to do it, which, like anything, grants rewards to those who do take the extra time to try to be good at something. 

Edited by P@ckersFan

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4 hours ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

It's like Texas holdem. Skill plays into sticking around and getting yourself in the best position to win it all. But anytime you go all in luck is a major factor. You could have pocket aces cracked by rags. 

 

The skill is making the playoffs and overcoming the bad beats of the season just enough to survive. During the regular season you can have the unlucky week and live to fight another day.

 

But in a win or go home format that goes out the window and luck becomes huge, because you are essentially all in, against an opponent who if he made it this far usually owns an equally strong hand. 

The skill is learning how to play a low pocket pair. Enough said.

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On 12/26/2017 at 8:30 PM, P@ckersFan said:

 

I think that 20/80 is a bit crazy. There are going to be people who get lucky, outliers who bizarrely win, and those who get terribly unlucky, but for the most part the amount of work that you put into it is going to have a lot of say in the outcome. 

 

There's a lot that can be said for actually watching the games. It's one thing to read the rankings, read the stats, go on the message boards, and analyze the data, but there's no substitute actually watching the teams play, seeing how the players on your team, the waiver wire, and opposing defenses are playing, what the trends are, and trying to make sense of their stories to create the most accurate short-term expectation. Most of us don't have time to do it, which, like anything, grants rewards to those who do take the extra time to try to be good at something. 

I think in football it often times comes down to singular moves, which may or may not have any rhyme or reason.  But if you are talking about a breakout at WR or RB - often times those are the differences.  Whats interesting is in an auction, because you can actually see who is bidding on whom...me and the guy who won our league were both battling over Dez and Hopkins, I ended up with Dez, he got Hopkins...could have just as easily ended up the other way and if it does its a totally different season for both he and I.  Not sure I would call it luck, but just one of those deals where two guys in similar situations heading into the seasons have vastly different seasons.  I suspect a lot of championships will be won with Todd Gurley.    

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Two weeks ago, lost by 1 point when Amendola late TD was called on the 1/2 yard line and Pats couldnt punch it in and gave my opponent the Gostkowski 3 when they needed 2 scores and kick the field goal - of course as I have watched the playoffs play themselves out, I would of won the championship which makes the loss all the more frustrating.  

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I had the best and most complete team all year. Lost in finals for a second straight year to 2 guys who go off and rest of team sucked. Gurley and Lewis are the guilty parties this year. What fun. 

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On ‎12‎/‎26‎/‎2017 at 6:32 AM, Lamont Sanford said:

 

The point is that those 3 RBs were great one week, then randomly crappy by comparison the next. Same players both weeks, vastly different results, and completely out of the fantasy owners control. He was lucky they did good last week, unlucky they were bad this week. If those 3 players, or even just one or two of them randomly sucked or got injurd last week he wouldn’t have even been in the championship. Many teams were unlucky last week when certain players inexplicably sucked, or got injured. Many of those exact same teams that lost last week, or week one of the playoffs, would’ve won the championship by a large margin this week but they were simply unlucky at the wrong time when their players underperformed expectations.

 

Most fantasy  teams have a few really good players. I’m sure his opponent had a few good players too. That’s why it all comes down to luck when playing among peers with similar levels of experience. None of us have any special fantasy football  “skill” that separates us from our opponents. The mere suggestion is pretty ridiculous and arrogant to be honest. Why do you think even those that the fantasy community in general consider “experts” are wrong so often? 

 

Imagine how many Antonio Brown owners dominated all season but didn’t even make the championship game because the combination of Brown’s injury and opponents good luck knocked them out last week. I guess you believe they were unskilled, not unlucky? Imagine how many teams won the fantasy championship this week after barely beating the Antonio Brown owner last week. You believe skill was a bigger factor than luck for them?

 

Todd Gurley sucked last year, best fantasy player this year. Nobody “knew” that was going to happen. Some rolled the dice and got extremely lucky, simpe as that. You can say you drafted Gurley because of blah blah blah, but so did Mike Evans owners. I guess those expecting a big year from Evans (which was everyone) were unskilled? Of course not, just victims of bad luck and fantasy randomness. The same luck and randomness that blessed Gurley owners way beyond anyone’s expectations. If Gurley sucked this year this nobody would’ve been surprised and this forum would be filled with “I told you so’s” and Trent Richardson comparisons. 

 

If any of you were actually as “skilled” at fantasy football as you believe you are, why haven’t you quit your real jobs and become millionaires playing fantasy football? Answer- because the same “skill” that helped you acquire league-winning players this year will be “bad luck” next year when the same caliber players either get injured or randomly suck at the wrong time. 

 

I'm by no means calling myself an expert or think I know more than anyone else.  I've said before that there is an element of luck in the game but there is also a larger amount of skill/knowledge/common sense/effort IMO to get into playoffs. From there I think the pendulum swings the other way and luck is a much larger factor to who actually wins the championship, that we can agree on.

 

That being said, using the example of those three RB's... I don't think it would have been a crazy call to assume that they were going to regress from week 15 to 16.  Ingram and Freeman both had more difficult matchups.  T. Coleman was out in week 15 and Freemans touches went from 27  to 13.  Gordon still put up a respectable number and had an easier matchup but was going up against the Jets instead of the Chiefs.  Using common sense most would know the Jets are worse than the Chiefs this year so there is more of a possibility that the Chargers would be up and not throwing the ball as much as they did against the Chiefs, which is exactly what happened.  Gordons rushing stats from week 15 to 16 were basically the same the difference was he got 5 more targets out of the backfield vs the chiefs.  You most likely didn't have anyone better on your bench that you would start over them but if you did you could have made the case to sit either Ingram or Freeman.


I guess some people look for excuses as to why they lost, if you want to use luck as your excuse that's fine but to sit here and say that its 80-100% luck is ludacris.  I have been playing for 10+ years and have had multiple teams each year, I have only missed the playoffs 2 times.  There is not a chance that you will find someone that has played just as much as I have, put in the same amount of effort and has only made the playoffs 2 times out of 25+ teams they have managed.  Its a game, games do have both elements of skill and luck which makes it fun and unpredictable. 

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Again, nobody is arguing that skill isn't a big factor in making the playoffs. It is.

 

But any given week it comes down to luck. The skill is overcoming the bad luck you face throughout the year. You get chances to recover from the injures and dud games and if you make the right starts and pick up the right players you should be able to manage your way to the playoffs.

 

In an elimination game you are afforded no such luxury. It's all luck. 

 

The luck of not only how good or bad your team performs but your opponents as well.

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1 minute ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

Again, nobody is arguing that skill isn't a big factor in making the playoffs. It is.

 

But any given week it comes down to luck. The skill is overcoming the bad luck you face throughout the year. You get chances to recover from the injures and dud games and if you make the right starts and pick up the right players you should be able to manage your way to the playoffs.

 

In an elimination game you are afforded no such luxury. It's all luck. 

 

The luck of not only how good or bad your team performs but your opponents as well.

 

Agreed that playoffs are a different animal but there are still decisions to be made and skill involved that improve your odds of winning, it is not all luck.  That's the basis of any game and even in playoffs,  there are things you can do to improve your odds of winning the matchup.

 

For example I made a key pickup in week 14 to help me win my first round matchup and eventually the championship.  My opponent had Mixon and I was able to snag Gio, who I started, before Mixon was officially ruled out.  I won that matchup by 5 points and that move was the difference.  That's not an amazing move but if I hadn't, I wouldn't run to these boards and say how lucky my opponent was to have picked up a WW guy that put up 16 on me and now I lost.  I would kick myself for not being more attentive and beating him to the punch. 

 

I think using that phase or saying its 100% luck is ignorant, you're not walking into a gas station and buying a randomly generated lotto ticket. 

 

 

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First week of my playoffs my team barely did anything. Out of 6 playoff teams I was the 5th highest scoring. LUCKILY my opponent was the only team that scored fewer then me. 

 

The following week I had Gurley go off for 50 points facing a usual tough Seattle d at home at just the right time. Couple that with him losing a.brown early in the game and I squeaked out a win. 

 

 

Yes you can make all the moves that seem like the best decision, but it all boils down to luck in the end.

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14 minutes ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

First week of my playoffs my team barely did anything. Out of 6 playoff teams I was the 5th highest scoring. LUCKILY my opponent was the only team that scored fewer then me. 

 

The following week I had Gurley go off for 50 points facing a usual tough Seattle d at home at just the right time. Couple that with him losing a.brown early in the game and I squeaked out a win. 

 

 

Yes you can make all the moves that seem like the best decision, but it all boils down to luck in the end.

 

Ok so in this scenario you can say luck played a factor... Did your opponent in week 14 have the win on his bench?  Were there any players he could have picked up off the wire that would have given him the win?  There's your SKILL,  he most likely could have done something different that could have given him a win.

 

Losing a player due to injury is bad luck, no way to predict or plan for it.  Having a player outperform their "rankings" isn't lucky, rankings are an imaginary number that some choose to base their decisions off of.  There are many more relevant factors that you can use to set your lineup. For example Seattle gave up the 18th most rushing yards per game this season so the "tough Seattle D" is in the lower half of the league.  They had just played a tough Jaguar team the week before and had a pretty emotional loss.  They have lost key players on the defensive side of the ball and some were reportably injured and still played that week.  With that said was it surprising that Gurley put up that big of a number, sure but there were signs that it was a possibility beforehand.

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Whatever you say dude I'm done arguing.

 

Poker is a skill game as well. But when the chips are all in many times it's not the best hand that wins. You can put yourself in the best position but again its luck in the end.

 

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And to the Gurley point. It was my opponents misfortune and bad luck he ran into my Gurley. How was he supposed to use skill to dodge that one? 

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2 hours ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

I'm by no means calling myself an expert or think I know more than anyone else.  I've said before that there is an element of luck in the game but there is also a larger amount of skill/knowledge/common sense/effort IMO to get into playoffs. From there I think the pendulum swings the other way and luck is a much larger factor to who actually wins the championship, that we can agree on.

 

That being said, using the example of those three RB's... I don't think it would have been a crazy call to assume that they were going to regress from week 15 to 16.  Ingram and Freeman both had more difficult matchups.  T. Coleman was out in week 15 and Freemans touches went from 27  to 13.  Gordon still put up a respectable number and had an easier matchup but was going up against the Jets instead of the Chiefs.  Using common sense most would know the Jets are worse than the Chiefs this year so there is more of a possibility that the Chargers would be up and not throwing the ball as much as they did against the Chiefs, which is exactly what happened.  Gordons rushing stats from week 15 to 16 were basically the same the difference was he got 5 more targets out of the backfield vs the chiefs.  You most likely didn't have anyone better on your bench that you would start over them but if you did you could have made the case to sit either Ingram or Freeman.


I guess some people look for excuses as to why they lost, if you want to use luck as your excuse that's fine but to sit here and say that its 80-100% luck is ludacris.  I have been playing for 10+ years and have had multiple teams each year, I have only missed the playoffs 2 times.  There is not a chance that you will find someone that has played just as much as I have, put in the same amount of effort and has only made the playoffs 2 times out of 25+ teams they have managed.  Its a game, games do have both elements of skill and luck which makes it fun and unpredictable. 

 

"It takes skill to get to the playoffs. Luck to win it all"

 

That's my logic, every year. 

 

As long as I'm in the playoffs, I know I'm pretty darn good at FF.

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2 hours ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

Whatever you say dude I'm done arguing.

 

Poker is a skill game as well. But when the chips are all in many times it's not the best hand that wins. You can put yourself in the best position but again its luck in the end.

 

 

2 hours ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

And to the Gurley point. It was my opponents misfortune and bad luck he ran into my Gurley. How was he supposed to use skill to dodge that one? 

 

Not arguing, just discussing on discussion boards lol

 

Actually if the chips are all in, the best hand does always win in Poker but I get what you were trying to say.  There is a luck factor in every game that's why its a game and enjoyable.  What we're debating is quantifying the amount of luck associated with FF, I think its around 15-25% some on here feel like its 100%.  Poker is easy to quantify because it has structure and a limited number of outcomes, FF is the opposite. 

 

To the Gurley point, I don't look at it as your opponents misfortune, I would rather credit you and say you worked hard to assemble a good team and you deserved to win.  But the skill would have been to pick up Dion Lewis a few weeks back to help offset Gurley haha.

 

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It's closer to 100% then 25% any given week. 

 

If you really believe that's the case then I assume you don't hold a regular job, but rather earn a very comfortable living off of your daily fantasy winnings?  

 

Hell, they let you pick your own players so you are not even subject to anyone in your lineup you don't feel confident in. Yet still I don't see millionaires being bred left and right off of draftkings. 

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13 minutes ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

It's closer to 100% then 25% any given week. 

 

If you really believe that's the case then I assume you don't hold a regular job, but rather earn a very comfortable living off of your daily fantasy winnings?  

 

Hell, they let you pick your own players so you are not even subject to anyone in your lineup you don't feel confident in. Yet still I don't see millionaires being bred left and right off of draftkings. 

 

We can agree to disagree on the number.

 

Have you not heard of the Millionaire maker lol?

 

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4 hours ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

And to the Gurley point. It was my opponents misfortune and bad luck he ran into my Gurley. How was he supposed to use skill to dodge that one? 

 

Ran into Gurley this week and I rocked his boat. Didn't matter who he had my team was just better.

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5 hours ago, Nyblazer11235 said:

Whatever you say dude I'm done arguing.

 

Poker is a skill game as well. But when the chips are all in many times it's not the best hand that wins. You can put yourself in the best position but again its luck in the end.

 

Don't bother --- He is one of those types when he wins it is all skill ...

His banter reminds me of Kyle this years winner in our 10 team yahoo league. We have yahoo messenger chat for our league where we all go and trash talk. He is telling us--  him winning is all skill. He made all the right moves. A few of us tried to tell him there is so much luck involved in H2H fantasy football, he won't have any of that... I gave him all the facts ---  4 teams make playoffs and he had the least amount of points scored out of the 4 playoff teams. Also one other team who finished 6-8 scored more points than his team. My 4th seed team scored 150 more points. He points out his 10-4 record 2nd seed and his points against he had the fewest. He told us all his team plays good D against other teams. lol 

 

Now onto the playoffs --- the 4 teams plays 2 games ( a consolation 3rd place) he wins the championship and his team scores the 3rd highest points (202.97)  for the two total games. I score the most at 270.36 ... I lost in the semi's (week15) against that 3 headed RB's (Ingram, Freeman & Gordon) the team that played Kyle's had a total of (236.72)... He scored 148+ the first matchup against my team.

7 hours ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

That being said, using the example of those three RB's... I don't think it would have been a crazy call to assume that they were going to regress from week 15 to 16.  Ingram and Freeman both had more difficult matchups.  T. Coleman was out in week 15 and Freemans touches went from 27  to 13.  Gordon still put up a respectable number and had an easier matchup but was going up against the Jets instead of the Chiefs.  Using common sense most would know the Jets are worse than the Chiefs this year so there is more of a possibility that the Chargers would be up and not throwing the ball as much as they did against the Chiefs, which is exactly what happened.  Gordons rushing stats from week 15 to 16 were basically the same the difference was he got 5 more targets out of the backfield vs the chiefs.  You most likely didn't have anyone better on your bench that you would start over them but if you did you could have made the case to sit either Ingram or Freeman.

Yea all three RB's averaged 25 pioints in week 15 so you figured regression was coming ... but no way in hell is anybody going to sit any of those three. How can you even suggest that?

 

7 hours ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

I have been playing for 10+ years and have had multiple teams each year, I have only missed the playoffs 2 times.

yahoooooooo

 

6 hours ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

For example I made a key pickup in week 14 to help me win my first round matchup and eventually the championship.  My opponent had Mixon and I was able to snag Gio, who I started, before Mixon was officially ruled out. 

Everybody made that key addition on Wednesday for waivers ... he was ruled out on Friday. Did you have to make a claim or was he still available on Friday/Saturday?

 

Mixon was concussed on Monday night against the Steelers .. Gio came in and rushed for over 70 yards ... in my leagues he was #1 waiver wire addition

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Yep I got Gurleyed this year too.  I still almost had him beat until that bogus last drive in the Pitt game where Brady threw to Gronk nearly every play plus the 2pt conversion. Only way I couldve won was if I played the 100% optimal lineup. Then I go on to score the most points on any playoff team finals week.  Gurleys 4 TD performance was the first since a few accomplished it in 2013.  My playoff beats include Terrell Owens 20 catch 283 yd performance, Terrell Davis bombsquading me, Aaron Rodgers takin a dump scoring like 4 pts after lighting every team up until that point may have been 6 or 7 years ago and others I cant remember anymore.

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15 hours ago, shakestreet said:

 

His banter reminds me of Kyle this years winner in our 10 team yahoo league. We have yahoo messenger chat for our league where we all go and trash talk. He is telling us--  him winning is all skill. He made all the right moves. A few of us tried to tell him there is so much luck involved in H2H fantasy football, he won't have any of that...

 

another prime example, in a work league (small $), we invited a client who had never played FF and knows very little about NFL football.

 

Later in the season, this person stopped setting their lineup at one point, had guys injured and on bye in the lineup, and still won at least 2 match ups that way. Fortunately didn't make the playoffs, but was VERY close to.

 

meanwhile I kept hustling and won the championship, partly skill and just willingness to follow it closely and try. But in H2H it's so much luck. That is why I only play roto for bigger $.

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48 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

another prime example, in a work league (small $), we invited a client who had never played FF and knows very little about NFL football.

 

Later in the season, this person stopped setting their lineup at one point, had guys injured and on bye in the lineup, and still won at least 2 match ups that way. Fortunately didn't make the playoffs, but was VERY close to.

 

meanwhile I kept hustling and won the championship, partly skill and just willingness to follow it closely and try. But in H2H it's so much luck. That is why I only play roto for bigger $.

 

That's the skill portion, you put more time and effort into researching and working to improve your teams odds to win.  If your coworker would have done the same it sounds like he would have had a shot to make a run... Based off those facts I would say you are the more skillful fantasy football player, not the luckier player.

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14 minutes ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

That's the skill portion, you put more time and effort into researching and working to improve your teams odds to win.  If your coworker would have done the same it sounds like he would have had a shot to make a run... Based off those facts I would say you are the more skillful fantasy football player, not the luckier player.

 

Right, I hear you.

 

I guess the point about luck in H2H is just that, on any given week the best teams and most skilled managers don't always win. And sometimes the teams who score less points throughout the course of the year end up winning. And that's part of the fun with H2H, but just be prepared to be infuriated at times with fluky stuff.

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16 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Don't bother --- He is one of those types when he wins it is all skill ...

Absolutely not what I said.  I feel like the skill portion of the game outweighs the luck portion.  We already got into it so no need to rehash, we can agree to disagree on the number.

 

16 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Yea all three RB's averaged 25 pioints in week 15 so you figured regression was coming ... but no way in hell is anybody going to sit any of those three. How can you even suggest that?

Well if you took a second to read what I said... I stated it wasn't surprising that they regressed from their previous week point totals due to: Tougher matchups, Freeman losing touches to Coleman and Gordon getting less production through the air due to playing a worse team and being up in the game instead of trailing by 3TDs.  I also said that you likely didn't have anyone better to start over them, next time feel free to read the whole post before you spew out a response.

 

16 hours ago, shakestreet said:

yahoooooooo

Thanks!

 

All I'm saying is I find it laughable when people come on here and complain about how someone is so lucky and that's why they won, I think its insulting and devalues the time and effort someone put forth to put together the best team possible to give them the best odds to win every week.  I can agree with you that there is a luck factor in the game but to throw out a blanket statement that applies to everyone and every league I can not agree with. 

It sounds like you are a good player, give yourself credit and recognize that you put in more time and effort and improved your odds to win than the other teams that didn't make the playoffs.  Sometimes you run into a tough schedule, I did this year and ended at the 7th seed.  I don't think I am unlucky or my opponents are lucky, I made decisions that cost me. 

 

 

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