FlashGordon401

LeSean McCoy 2017 Season Outlook

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21 minutes ago, Br0kenB said:

I can't tell if you're attempting to mock me or not. In any case, I'm down for a spirited discussion on McCoy vs. Freeman, or we can just go on with posts like these that don't do much.

 

What I can tell everyone else is that J. Williams looks very good behind McCoy and can be had very cheap. He looks pretty explosive this offseason and you can grab him with like a 12th-13th.

 

McCoy has a very cheap handcuff, whereas Freeman has the most expensive handcuff in the league.  That's a strong argument for McCoy over Freeman.

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Just now, Nap Time said:

 

McCoy has a very cheap handcuff, whereas Freeman has the most expensive handcuff in the league.  That's a strong argument for McCoy over Freeman.

Demarco Murray is up there with Freeman as far as handcuffs go. I don't like the handcuff argument because some people just don't handcuff their picks. You can win leagues with and without handcuffing so to me it's not as strong of an argument as the offense around a player, their share of the offense, the changes they made, the division they play in, SoS, etc. I don't think you can use the handcuff as a talking point because if Freeman outscores McCoy on his own, 1 against 1, then the handcuff argument wasn;t even important in the first place. Know what I'm sayin'?

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Coleman is a hell of a lot different tho. That's more of a 1 2 punch, I don't view in the same regard as we view our typical cuffs. Alot of cuffs are used very very minimally until injury occurs. But a guy like Coleman is a great flex, I had him last year without Freeman and it was great... That offense flourished utilizing both in different ways. 

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4 minutes ago, Br0kenB said:

Demarco Murray is up there with Freeman as far as handcuffs go. I don't like the handcuff argument because some people just don't handcuff their picks. You can win leagues with and without handcuffing so to me it's not as strong of an argument as the offense around a player, their share of the offense, the changes they made, the division they play in, SoS, etc. I don't think you can use the handcuff as a talking point because if Freeman outscores McCoy on his own, 1 against 1, then the handcuff argument wasn;t even important in the first place. Know what I'm sayin'?

 

If you are gonna spend a high first rounder on a rb- u sure as HECK better consider the insurance policy.  That's one of the benefits of going rb first.    

 

And what if Shady gets traded?  Jon Williams becomes an every week Rb2 or better.  

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

 

If you are gonna spend a high first rounder on a rb- u sure as HECK better consider the insurance policy.  That's one of the benefits of going rb first.    

 

And what if Shady gets traded?  Jon Williams becomes an every week Rb2 or better.  

Of course you consider it, but it may not even be necessary. For example, Freeman has missed 1 game in his career. McCoy has missed a higher percentage of games in his career. A player like Freeman doesn't necessarily require a handcuff while at the same time, he has a higher games played rate for his career.  Add in the fact that if both players play 16 (which can definitely happen seeing as how one of them has done it 2 times and 15 games the other time and McCoy does it about 50% of the time), the handcuff argument doesn't even matter. If anything, it works in Freeman's favor.

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Just now, Br0kenB said:

Of course you consider it, but it may not even be necessary. For example, Freeman has missed 1 game in his career. McCoy has missed a higher percentage of games in his career. A player like Freeman doesn't necessarily require a handcuff while at the same time, he has a higher games played rate for his career.  Add in the fact that if both players play 16 (which can definitely happen seeing as how one of them has done it 2 times and 15 games the other time and McCoy does it about 50% of the time), the handcuff argument doesn't even matter. If anything, it works in Freeman's favor.

Coleman costs you a higher pick and doesn't offer the same workhorse upside as Williams.   Atl will timeshare either way as 2 backs are a necessity to run the offense.  

 

And again- McCoy has missed 11 games in 8 seasons.    He's not an injury risk.   But injuries happen to rbs so handcuffing matters 

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I wouldn't cuff Freeman with Coleman since he has proven to be so durable in his career combined with Coleman's high cost. But I guess that's just a matter of preference. Also don't like how devoid of good players the Buffalo offense is. That is why I'd go Freeman over McCoy.

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7 minutes ago, Br0kenB said:

I wouldn't cuff Freeman with Coleman since he has proven to be so durable in his career combined with Coleman's high cost. But I guess that's just a matter of preference. Also don't like how devoid of good players the Buffalo offense is. That is why I'd go Freeman over McCoy.

 

Totally fair.    And like I said- it's close.   But i vary in philosophy from you on stud rbs.   Give me the the only game in town over a likely timeshare anyday.  Mccoy could be looking at a 2500 total yard season and he comes with with cheap, high upside cuff.   I don't see much risk there  

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I am targeting McCoy if I can't get Bell or Johnson (Freeman is 4th on my list--I am less comfortable with Gordon, Murray, Howard, and Ajayi). Where I come down on handcuffing is it depends on the rest of my roster. The threshold question is: will I play the said cuff' if the starter goes down? In a case like Deangelo Williams the answer was a clear yes, irrespective of roster, given that he was a top 3-5 RB when starting in Pittsburgh. 

 

I have had one draft thus far and I took McCoy with the 5th but I did not handcuff because I also have Miller, Hyde, Powell (PPR league), and Martin. All those players presumably are better or at least equal to what J. Williams would do if starting. It should be noted this was in a 10 team league. In 12 teamers each team will have less depth and by the end of drafts you are left with poor choices. In those I plan on, if I have McCoy, taking J. Williams every time in the final round. I did have Gillisee last year and that proved to be helpful when McCoy missed some time.

 

I won't handcuff Freeman, though. The opportunity cost to taking Coleman is too great when you consider who else is available around him. You can get a WR3 with WR2 upside at the same point of drafts.

Edited by Ace_King

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I rarely handcuff RBs but McCoy is one that I will handcuff because (1) he has an injury history and (2) his handcuff should produce if he takes over because the Bills have shown an ability to get numbers out of other guys.  (Also, Williams looks promising.)

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Totally fair.    And like I said- it's close.   But i vary in philosophy from you on stud rbs.   Give me the the only game in town over a likely timeshare anyday.  Mccoy could be looking at a 2500 total yard season and he comes with with cheap, high upside cuff.   I don't see much risk there  

 

In 2 seasons at buffalo he had 1200 total yards and 1600 total yards. Yes Gillisee is gone which helps but I don't see a jump to 2500 yards. I think he only broke 2000 (2100ish that year) yards once in his career. 

Tyrod Taylor may have a short leash so we could be seeing Nathan Peterman under center at some point if Tyrod struggles. I think McCoy is an amazing talent but I'm avoiding him in the first round. The Bills will still run the ball a lot but Rex is gone so that could have an impact on the run game. I also think McCoy will run into a lot of stacked boxes this season.  He can definitely prove me wrong though. The o line is good but everything else sucks. I guess It's not much different then last year. 

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8 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

 

In 2 seasons at buffalo he had 1200 total yards and 1600 total yards. Yes Gillisee is gone which helps but I don't see a jump to 2500 yards. I think he only broke 2000 (2100ish that year) yards once in his career. 

Tyrod Taylor may have a short leash so we could be seeing Nathan Peterman under center at some point if Tyrod struggles. I think McCoy is an amazing talent but I'm avoiding him in the first round. The Bills will still run the ball a lot but Rex is gone so that could have an impact on the run game. I also think McCoy will run into a lot of stacked boxes this season.  He can definitely prove me wrong though. The o line is good but everything else sucks. I guess It's not much different then last year. 

 

Shady was a big key to my 2016 season.  There is no one I would rather have run or catch in PPR.  He's fabulous.

 

That said, I see him as more risky (PPR) than Gordon, Freeman or (even) Ajayi because of the implosion potential in Buffalo.  The dark clouds seem to be gathering over Orchard Park.  Maybe they pass for 2017, in which case Shady has a fine year.  But if they are a sign of worse to come, then I would much rather own one of the lesser talents (to my eye, at least) who reside in a far more solid offense.  Freeman's ceiling may not be spectacular, but he's as safe as they come.  Lots of FF junkies believe they have Gordon pegged as a JAG, but the CS, FO and the players (Rivers included) believe otherwise, and that's all that counts IMO.  I also see Miami as being a solid offense with Cutler and Gase being reunited.  Buffalo, on the other hand??  Not for the feint of heart.          

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3 hours ago, Br0kenB said:

I can't tell if you're attempting to mock me or not. In any case, I'm down for a spirited discussion on McCoy vs. Freeman, or we can just go on with posts like these that don't do much.

 

What I can tell everyone else is that J. Williams looks very good behind McCoy and can be had very cheap. He looks pretty explosive this offseason and you can grab him with like a 12th-13th.

 

lol, what.

 

I honestly would take a Bill's fan devalue of McCoy into consideration between two players I already viewed relatively close in terms of value. 

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2 hours ago, Br0kenB said:

Demarco Murray is up there with Freeman as far as handcuffs go. I don't like the handcuff argument because some people just don't handcuff their picks. You can win leagues with and without handcuffing so to me it's not as strong of an argument as the offense around a player, their share of the offense, the changes they made, the division they play in, SoS, etc. I don't think you can use the handcuff as a talking point because if Freeman outscores McCoy on his own, 1 against 1, then the handcuff argument wasn;t even important in the first place. Know what I'm sayin'?

 

I agree.  Last year I took Bell in the 1st, knowing he would miss games and his handcuff cost a 7th rounder.  I would rather use that pick for a player that can play all season and have some extra RB depth.  Needless to say, I didn't end up needing the handcuff with Bell

Edited by nk3323

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2 minutes ago, MillenWasmyFavorite said:

 

lol, what.

 

I honestly would take a Bill's fan devalue of McCoy into consideration between two players I already viewed relatively close in terms of value. 

Okay, I read the post in a different tone; it sounded like you were making fun of my rankings or something. Apologies.

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49 minutes ago, Br0kenB said:

Okay, I read the post in a different tone; it sounded like you were making fun of my rankings or something. Apologies.

it's okay I read it the same way. i guess the debate here is freeman vs. mccoy now. 

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1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Shady was a big key to my 2016 season.  There is no one I would rather have run or catch in PPR.  He's fabulous.

 

That said, I see him as more risky (PPR) than Gordon, Freeman or (even) Ajayi because of the implosion potential in Buffalo.  The dark clouds seem to be gathering over Orchard Park.  Maybe they pass for 2017, in which case Shady has a fine year.  But if they are a sign of worse to come, then I would much rather own one of the lesser talents (to my eye, at least) who reside in a far more solid offense.  Freeman's ceiling may not be spectacular, but he's as safe as they come.  Lots of FF junkies believe they have Gordon pegged as a JAG, but the CS, FO and the players (Rivers included) believe otherwise, and that's all that counts IMO.  I also see Miami as being a solid offense with Cutler and Gase being reunited.  Buffalo, on the other hand??  Not for the feint of heart.          

 

Shady was awesome last year and He could be great this year But as you said, he seems risky. To clarify what I said earlier...they may not run the same as they did with Rex but I think shady can catch more passes this season so it could be a wash. 

Gordon may be JAG but His value is tied to his workload. He plays in a very good offense that can move the football and he doesn't have competition for touches in between the 20s or the GL. 

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I guess what I don't get is this... People that are so afraid of McCoy what are you expecting? Like 400 rushing yards and 3 tds? That's not gonna happen even tho I'm being extreme... But still shady is going to have a nice season, it might not be exactly what last year was, but then maybe he will just have an even better season if they really force him the touches and he just does what he does best. But there's nothing "risky" about drafting a top end rb that's been doing it for the last 7 years to the tee pretty much. If injury is your concern that's still not a major reason to turn away as look at OBJ already, Freeman etc... Shady is a imho probably based on some percentages the safer choice due to the sample size. Hes a great choice overall. 

Edited by Savatage79

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4 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

 

Shady was awesome last year and He could be great this year But as you said, he seems risky. To clarify what I said earlier...they may not run the same as they did with Rex but I think shady can catch more passes this season so it could be a wash. 

Gordon may be JAG but His value is tied to his workload. He plays in a very good offense that can move the football and he doesn't have competition for touches in between the 20s or the GL. 

 

And, as I have been saying for a long time now, the folks who really matter love Gordon and are prepared to use the hell out of him.  Until someone presents hard evidence that the Chargers FO, CS or players share any of the fantasy communities purported doubts about Gordon's abilities, he is about as safe a choice as there is to return high-end RB1 production in 2017, health permitting.

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2 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

And, as I have been saying for a long time now, the folks who really matter love Gordon and are prepared to use the hell out of him.  Until someone presents hard evidence that the Chargers FO, CS or players share any of the fantasy communities purported doubts about Gordon's abilities, he is about as safe a choice as there is to return high-end RB1 production in 2017, health permitting.

 

I know you said that in your original post. Who knows what to make of Gordon but the workload is there and the competition is not. 

 

I just saw an article i Wish I had seen yesterday before my draft. 

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/5/9/15577834/lesean-mccoy-buffalo-bills-stacked-boxes-rushing-yards-sean-mcdermott-rick-dennison

 

it details how shady averaged 5.80 ish YPC against Stacked boxes. He ran his best when there were 7-8 defenders in the box. We could see that a lot this year so shady may be in for another huge season. maybe he isn't as risky as I thought. 

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2 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

 

I know you said that in your original post. Who knows what to make of Gordon but the workload is there and the competition is not. 

 

I just saw an article i Wish I had seen yesterday before my draft. 

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/5/9/15577834/lesean-mccoy-buffalo-bills-stacked-boxes-rushing-yards-sean-mcdermott-rick-dennison

 

it details how shady averaged 5.80 ish YPC against Stacked boxes. He ran his best when there were 7-8 defenders in the box. We could see that a lot this year so shady may be in for another huge season. maybe he isn't as risky as I thought. 

 

If watching your guys perform is half the pleasure of this hobby, then Shady ranks near the top for me.  I can watch this guy do his thing all day.  No question.

 

Can he overcome a potential dumpster fire and return top 5 numbers all season and, most importantly, during the FF playoffs?  What are you willing to pay to find out?  There is no right or wrong answer to these questions.  Just decisions to be made in the back drop of opportunity cost.

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Even tho bills aren't exactly in tip top shape atm, they still aren't in Jets territory of bleakness, least to me they aren't.. 

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20 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

 

I know you said that in your original post. Who knows what to make of Gordon but the workload is there and the competition is not. 

 

I just saw an article i Wish I had seen yesterday before my draft. 

 

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/5/9/15577834/lesean-mccoy-buffalo-bills-stacked-boxes-rushing-yards-sean-mcdermott-rick-dennison

 

it details how shady averaged 5.80 ish YPC against Stacked boxes. He ran his best when there were 7-8 defenders in the box. We could see that a lot this year so shady may be in for another huge season. maybe he isn't as risky as I thought. 

 

Nice find.....this might change my mind about him this year and make me think about drafting him #5.

 

My only concern now would be durability, in which handcuffing will be important

Edited by nk3323

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2 hours ago, nk3323 said:

 

I agree.  Last year I took Bell in the 1st, knowing he would miss games and his handcuff cost a 7th rounder.  I would rather use that pick for a player that can play all season and have some extra RB depth.  Needless to say, I didn't end up needing the handcuff with Bell

 

Yeah, 7th round is tough but palatable for a handcuff, maybe 8th round for D. Henry.  But T. Coleman is going in the 5th.  That's crazy expensive.

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4 hours ago, Br0kenB said:

Demarco Murray is up there with Freeman as far as handcuffs go. I don't like the handcuff argument because some people just don't handcuff their picks. You can win leagues with and without handcuffing so to me it's not as strong of an argument as the offense around a player, their share of the offense, the changes they made, the division they play in, SoS, etc. I don't think you can use the handcuff as a talking point because if Freeman outscores McCoy on his own, 1 against 1, then the handcuff argument wasn;t even important in the first place. Know what I'm sayin'?

 

Have you heard anything about new OC Rick Dennison changing the blocking scheme? He's a Kubiak disciple, which means zone blocking.

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