FlashGordon401

LeSean McCoy 2017 Season Outlook

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28 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Even tho bills aren't exactly in tip top shape atm, they still aren't in Jets territory of bleakness, least to me they aren't.. 

 

Once Tyrod gets benched, Peterman -Zay Jones - Jordan Matthews - Clay is bottom 5 easily. Zero field stretches, they will absolutely struggle to move the Ball. I like Tyrod, but after the Bills (likely) beat the Jets, but they could reasonably lose the next 4 and expect a bye week qb change. Backs on bad teams don't score a lot of td's. He may pick up a good amount of yards, but the td's will keep him out of the top 5 or 6 rb's imo 

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6 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

Once Tyrod gets benched, Peterman -Zay Jones - Jordan Matthews - Clay is bottom 5 easily. Zero field stretches, they will absolutely struggle to move the Ball. I like Tyrod, but after the Bills (likely) beat the Jets, but they could reasonably lose the next 4 and expect a bye week qb change. Backs on bad teams don't score a lot of td's. He may pick up a good amount of yards, but the td's will keep him out of the top 5 or 6 rb's imo 

That's a great assumption, but it's still a guess. And tell that to AP, he scored just fine on all those trash viking years. Bad teams still can score, look at Jacksonville. How can fournette be touted when his team is a steaming sack of crap right now offensively? 

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4 hours ago, Br0kenB said:

I wouldn't cuff Freeman with Coleman since he has proven to be so durable in his career combined with Coleman's high cost. But I guess that's just a matter of preference. Also don't like how devoid of good players the Buffalo offense is. That is why I'd go Freeman over McCoy.

 

 

i think you are looking at handcuffs the wrong way,  you shouldn't look at cuffing the player, but cuffing the teams running game.  you should be asking yourself if the Bills run game is worth cuffing, and is the falcons run game worth cuffing.  in the falcons case i would say yes even at a high price, both rbs are proven commodities and the offense even with regression is very good.

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1 hour ago, Savatage79 said:

That's a great assumption, but it's still a guess. And tell that to AP, he scored just fine on all those trash viking years. Bad teams still can score, look at Jacksonville. How can fournette be touted when his team is a steaming sack of crap right now offensively? 

 

there is a difference in my mind between a rookie RB and a 29 year old.

 

my thought is that if they are sitting there, 5-9, and down by 2 scores in the 3rd and McCoy takes a shot to the knee....he might not see the field again that game.

 

I just worry that the locker room won't buy in to the coach, and the team ends up not playing very good football.

 

anyways, i miss football.

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3 minutes ago, iphone said:

 

there is a difference in my mind between a rookie RB and a 29 year old.

 

my thought is that if they are sitting there, 5-9, and down by 2 scores in the 3rd and McCoy takes a shot to the knee....he might not see the field again that game.

 

I just worry that the locker room won't buy in to the coach, and the team ends up not playing very good football.

 

anyways, i miss football.

Most rbs who take a shot to the knee that bad won't see the field again that game, not sure your point. Age has nothing to do with it, Adrian Peterson was what, 30 when he put up 1500 yards last. And there have been others.. Anyone can get hit and not return to the game.

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3 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Most rbs who take a shot to the knee that bad won't see the field again that game, not sure your point. Age has nothing to do with it, Adrian Peterson was what, 30 when he put up 1500 yards last. And there have been others.. Anyone can get hit and not return to the game.

 

my point is that if it was a close game and they had a lot to play for, he might come back in. 

 

there are exceptions to every rule, and McCoy is a talented back in a league where there just aren't that many....but I see some risk.

Edited by iphone

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There's always risk but still track records are good gages. I just don't quite get the massive cliff in people's minds for players is all. 

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1 hour ago, Savatage79 said:

That's a great assumption, but it's still a guess. And tell that to AP, he scored just fine on all those trash viking years. Bad teams still can score, look at Jacksonville. How can fournette be touted when his team is a steaming sack of crap right now offensively? 

 

He isnt.

 

Cook over fournette all day long.

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7 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

He isnt.

 

Cook over fournette all day long.

That's a different discussion imho 

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2 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

That's a great assumption, but it's still a guess. And tell that to AP, he scored just fine on all those trash viking years. Bad teams still can score, look at Jacksonville. How can fournette be touted when his team is a steaming sack of crap right now offensively? 

 

Fournette costs you a pick more in the 20ish range, where as McCoy goes about 5-8. At least with Fournette, you have an established player on  your team already (I'm not a Fournette fan, just saying it's not apples to apples). 

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Of course there is risk with McCoy but that risk has to be factored in along with upside, floor, track record--and the same among other RBs. Of the top 10 RBs in ADP only Johnson and Freeman are truly low risk--and even the former got hurt last year. Yeah, it was Week 17 last year but the odds are his next injury won't be in Week 17. Still, given his youth, ceiling, floor, etc. he can reasonably be considered pretty safe. Freeman has consistently been healthy, consistently played at a high level and is on a great offense. He lacks the ceiling of Johnson, Bell, McCoy but that is priced into his late 1st round ADP. Let's look at the other top drafting RBs:

 

Bell--He has the greatest ceiling but also clearly has many risk factors associated with him. He has a checkered history of injuries and suspensions. While in the past Bell owners could get 85-90% of Bell's production when he was off the field via Williams, he now has a rookie as his likely backup.

 

Gordon--Gordon's ceiling isn't on par with Bell, Johnson, and McCoy but it arguably is as high as any other RB. The problems with him are he has only one year of elite production on his resume, he is an injury risk, and his YPC suggest he may not be as good as the other backs being drafted around him. He had a great 2016 (before getting hurt)--but that was a perfect storm for him in terms of GL opportunities, injuries to key players, including to Danny Woodhead. What will he produce in a normal context?

 

Murray--Murray has a high ceiling, a proven track record of elite production and he has been durable in recent years. However, he is 29 with a young, very good backup. Will his touches decrease in the second half of the season? While Murray's ceiling is very high his floor is among the lowest of the top 10 ADP RBs.

 

Ajayi--A wild card. He has shown his great potential but he also disappeared in many games last year. While you can say Gordon has one year of elite production can you truly say the same about Ajayi, since almost all his production came in four games? Ajayi is a high ceiling, low floor RB.

 

Howard--Another high ceiling, low floor player. He was dominant last year on a lousy team. However, we have seen many RBs come out the blue and dominate for a season or half a season in recent years--and then struggle the following year. Jeremy Hill, CJ Anderson, and Todd Gurley are prominent examples. Howard is a gamble on one of the worst offenses in football. He has about 3/4 of a season of elite performance on his CV.

 

Gurley--the biggest RB bust of 2016. He could rebound and become an elite player again but we saw how low his floor can be last year. He has a new coach and Watkins will help (when he actually plays) but this is still an offense "led" by Jared Goff. Only one year of elite production under his belt.

 

Fournette--A rookie. Who knows how he will fare in the pros as a rookie. Will he get the vital GL work or will Ivory? How bad will this offense be with Henne and/or Bortles? 

 

Considering all of the above here is how I can the top 10 drafted RBs in terms of safety (i.e., lowest risk listed first):

 

1) DJ

2) Freeman

3) Bell

4) McCoy

5) Gordon

6) Murray

7) Howard

8) Ajayi

9) Gurley

10) Fournette

 

McCoy has a higher ceiling than any of these players aside from DJ and Bell. He has a proven track record of RB1 production. Even in his down years he has been a low-end RB1--indicating a high floor (even on the lousy 2012 Eagles McCoy averaged 101 total yards per game)--and often he has been an elite RB1. Of course he carries risk with age, his team tanking, Taylor perhaps being benched but he also is an elite talent behind a great O line who has done it year after year. I am taking him over all RBs other than DJ, Bell. Freeman is the only other RB I would even consider taking over McCoy.

 

There has been some talk about his down years in this thread but he was better than people thought in 2012, 2014, and 2015. In 2015 he was really good once he got healthy. I already mentioned 2012. In 2014 he still averaged 92 total yards per game, his worst since his rookie year, and that was with him being banged up. 

 

Bottom line here as his finishes at RB each year: 35th (rookie), 7th, 2nd, 22nd (12 games), 2nd, 12th, 17th (12 games), and 3rd. 

 

 

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19 hours ago, Ace_King said:

Of course there is risk with McCoy but that risk has to be factored in along with upside, floor, track record--and the same among other RBs. Of the top 10 RBs in ADP only Johnson and Freeman are truly low risk--and even the former got hurt last year. Yeah, it was Week 17 last year but the odds are his next injury won't be in Week 17. Still, given his youth, ceiling, floor, etc. he can reasonably be considered pretty safe. Freeman has consistently been healthy, consistently played at a high level and is on a great offense. He lacks the ceiling of Johnson, Bell, McCoy but that is priced into his late 1st round ADP. Let's look at the other top drafting RBs:

 

Bell--He has the greatest ceiling but also clearly has many risk factors associated with him. He has a checkered history of injuries and suspensions. While in the past Bell owners could get 85-90% of Bell's production when he was off the field via Williams, he now has a rookie as his likely backup.

 

Gordon--Gordon's ceiling isn't on par with Bell, Johnson, and McCoy but it arguably is as high as any other RB. The problems with him are he has only one year of elite production on his resume, he is an injury risk, and his YPC suggest he may not be as good as the other backs being drafted around him. He had a great 2016 (before getting hurt)--but that was a perfect storm for him in terms of GL opportunities, injuries to key players, including to Danny Woodhead. What will he produce in a normal context?

 

Murray--Murray has a high ceiling, a proven track record of elite production and he has been durable in recent years. However, he is 29 with a young, very good backup. Will his touches decrease in the second half of the season? While Murray's ceiling is very high his floor is among the lowest of the top 10 ADP RBs.

 

Ajayi--A wild card. He has shown his great potential but he also disappeared in many games last year. While you can say Gordon has one year of elite production can you truly say the same about Ajayi, since almost all his production came in four games? Ajayi is a high ceiling, low floor RB.

 

Howard--Another high ceiling, low floor player. He was dominant last year on a lousy team. However, we have seen many RBs come out the blue and dominate for a season or half a season in recent years--and then struggle the following year. Jeremy Hill, CJ Anderson, and Todd Gurley are prominent examples. Howard is a gamble on one of the worst offenses in football. He has about 3/4 of a season of elite performance on his CV.

 

Gurley--the biggest RB bust of 2016. He could rebound and become an elite player again but we saw how low his floor can be last year. He has a new coach and Watkins will help (when he actually plays) but this is still an offense "led" by Jared Goff. Only one year of elite production under his belt.

 

Fournette--A rookie. Who knows how he will fare in the pros as a rookie. Will he get the vital GL work or will Ivory? How bad will this offense be with Henne and/or Bortles? 

 

Considering all of the above here is how I can the top 10 drafted RBs in terms of safety (i.e., lowest risk listed first):

 

1) DJ

2) Freeman

3) Bell

4) McCoy

5) Gordon

6) Murray

7) Howard

8) Ajayi

9) Gurley

10) Fournette

 

McCoy has a higher ceiling than any of these players aside from DJ and Bell. He has a proven track record of RB1 production. Even in his down years he has been a low-end RB1--indicating a high floor (even on the lousy 2012 Eagles McCoy averaged 101 total yards per game)--and often he has been an elite RB1. Of course he carries risk with age, his team tanking, Taylor perhaps being benched but he also is an elite talent behind a great O line who has done it year after year. I am taking him over all RBs other than DJ, Bell. Freeman is the only other RB I would even consider taking over McCoy.

 

There has been some talk about his down years in this thread but he was better than people thought in 2012, 2014, and 2015. In 2015 he was really good once he got healthy. I already mentioned 2012. In 2014 he still averaged 92 total yards per game, his worst since his rookie year, and that was with him being banged up. 

 

Bottom line here as his finishes at RB each year: 35th (rookie), 7th, 2nd, 22nd (12 games), 2nd, 12th, 17th (12 games), and 3rd. 

 

 

 

Are you taking McCoy over Freeman? 

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Just now, brosephd said:

 

Are you taking McCoy over Freeman? 

 

Yes. McCoy's ceiling is on another level than Freeman's, even if Freeman is safer and has a higher floor, due to Freeman being in a committee. I would be comfortable with Freeman as my RB1, though. In mock drafts if I can't get DJ, Bell, McCoy or Brown I am taking Freeman. 

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• QB that can gain the attention and responsibility of a DE and maybe a backside LB for zone reads 

• No other offense weapons on the team

• Run first team 

I can see McCoy fighting for RB1 overall this season. 

 

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48 minutes ago, Travis Burten said:

Zeke is better than him right? The 10 games he will play will be better than the 10 McCoy will in that span?

As of right now Zeke isn't playing 10 games, so no.

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McCoy is definitely 3rd on the RB ranks for me, and this year he might even vie for no 2.... great player and I have faith in him

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25 minutes ago, Dead Money said:

McCoy is definitely 3rd on the RB ranks for me, and this year he might even vie for no 2.... great player and I have faith in him

He might be a one man show but it could be a great one.

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21 hours ago, Finally Detroit Wins said:

• QB that can gain the attention and responsibility of a DE and maybe a backside LB for zone reads 

• No other offense weapons on the team

• Run first team 

I can see McCoy fighting for RB1 overall this season. 

 

 

 

#1 overall this season:

 

McCoy is too beat up.  There is no way he finishes 16 games as a feature back.  Impossible.

I like Jonathan Williams late.

 

Only back other than David Johnson who can finish #1 is probably Gurley.  Watkins is playing for a big contract and Cupp looks solid.  Fisher was a cancer.  Teams will not be focused on their running game, and Gurley is on a VERY short list of who can finish 16 games as a 3 down and goal line back.  

 

AFC

North

1. Bell never plays more than 13 games.  He was injured in the playoffs last year. Not suiting up until Sept 1 screams hamstring problems.  

2. Half of Crowell's yards last year were carries over 10 yards against prevent defenses.  He's over rated.  Duke Johnson will be in the slot, but their 7th round RB is a SOLID backup. Can they get 1st downs and stay on the field?

3. Baltimore's new OC led the Lions to an 0-16 season.  No right tackle.  No Flacco?

4. CIN has no offensive line.  Bad situation.

 

South

1. Fournette was always hurt in college.  He is currently hurt.  Get used to it.  Ivory is short yardage and goal line back.

2. I'd be a Marlon Mack fan if their center wasn't out for the season and Luck was okay.  I bet they do a post Manning tank to let Luck heal and get an early pick.  They can trade down twice to QB needy teams in the draft.  3 first round picks in 2019.

3. Lamar Miller can't handle feature back volume.  Forman has a lot to learn.  He is currently 4th on the depth chart.

4. Demarco has the job.  Henry might get big NFL playoffs volume.

 

East

1. McCoy has too many miles.  Can't remember the last time he played 16 games.  Sit on Jonathan Williams.

2. Ajayi can play 16 games, but he only had 4 games over 80 yards last year.  Not a 3 down back.  The Desean Jackson of RBs.

3. Jets?  Oh hell no.

4. NE? Got a crystal ball?

 

West

1. Gordon can't do 16 feature back games.  Oliver sucks.  Chargers season ends when Gordon goes down.  Tons of rookie RB talent this year.  They will get his backup off waivers.  Too many good RBs for 53 man rosters.

2. I will not be surprised if Lynch breaks the top 5.  Carr has no red zone targets.  Cooper has a small high jump.  Crabtree has the same high jump, but hugs sidelines well.  Jared Cook has like 3 career NFL TDs.  Plenty of passing yards and rushing TDs. Lynch is this years Blount.

3. KC needs Ware back.....to split carries with Hunt.

4. DEN - If Charles says he's ready....and proves it...highest career YPC.

 

NFC

North

1. Howard has a legit COP back who will eat into his production. 

2. Jamaal Williams is the best back in GB.  T.Y. cannot block.

3. MIN paid Murray.  Bad o-line

4. Abdullah should get 1,500 total yards.  Maybe a TD.

 

South

1. Freeman with Sarkisian concerns me.  A lot. Especially the red zone play calling.  League leader in field goals.

2. Martin's contract year, he was RB3.  He lost all his guaranteed $$.  Simms was also top 20 that year as 3rd down back.

3. Stewart is 2 down and goal line.  McCaffery should have a decent floor every week via receiving.  Stewart should finish with more points.

4. Ingram is efficient with limited touches.  He can catch passes.  Kamara = McCaffery.  AP is there.  Not a pass catcher.

 

East

1. Drafting Zeke will cost you a playoff spot. Zeke/McFadden could be a great combo.  Tough to pull off.

2. Smallwood is the best RB is PHI.  He is a steal. Blount is old, fat, and slow.  Belichick got what he wanted out of him.

3. Washington? Flip a coin, then ignore it.  Same as every other year with Jay Gruden.

4. Giants.  I hope all the receivers are healthy and the RB can keep Eli on his feet.

 

West

1. DJ didn't have a passing game last year.  TDs are unsustainable.

2. Joe Williams could be the best rookie back this year.  He is by FAR the best one cut outside zone blocking back on Shanahan's offense.

3. SEA lost their LT for the year.  Rotating committee of injured backs, again.

4. Gurley can play 3 downs and goal line for 16 games.  Fisher was a cancer.  Goff might be a legit #1 pick.  Watkins is playing for a contract.  Kupp looks solid. Teams will need to respect the passing game, which frees up Gurley to show us what he can do.

 

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Mike Tolbert = the new Mike Gillislee,  looks like that argument is now gone......

Edited by nk3323

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When you look up the phrase TD vulture, there is a picture of Tolbert. He is so annoying in fantasy

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I hate it when people post non-substantive opinions, but, man, this team has bad juju right now. 

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