LeSean McCoy 2017 Season Outlook

[ShowStopper 839]

I haven't seen any of their preseason games, does the team look really that bad? 

[Br0kenB 1,943]

We are horrible offensively. I'm staying as far away from McCoy as possible.

[ss3walkman 1,226]

It's either he puts up numbers as the focal point of the offense or he faces stacked fronts and gets clobbered. Personally, I'm moving him if the right offer comes across me but I'm not going to send offers out.

[owenmills 5,326]

I drafted him but almost instantly regretted it. Wish I'd taken Gordon instead. I think the offense is going to be putrid and Tyrod will be awful

[ponchsox 1,800]

Freeman and Gordon are definitely ahead of McCoy for me now. 

[S1mcity 360]

When yu guys think preseason actually matters lmao 

[ShowStopper 839]

I see bills don't have many weapons if at all outside of McCoy. But they still supposedly have a strong offensive line. Preseason overreaction? 

[nk3323 36]

Just now, ShowStopper said:

I see bills don't have many weapons if at all outside of McCoy. But they still supposedly have a strong offensive line. Preseason overreaction? 

that's what i'm wondering.  I'd like to have mccoy on my team and hope he does well but I just can't do it.  I think he may have a similar year to his 2014 when he had about 1400 yards and 5 TDs

[Ace_King 574]

47 minutes ago, ShowStopper said:

I see bills don't have many weapons if at all outside of McCoy. But they still supposedly have a strong offensive line. Preseason overreaction? 

 

That is my inclination. People act like Watkins 1) played regularly last year 2) produced when he actually played. Is Matthews/Jones a massive downgrade from a hobbled Watkins/Woods? That's the real question, not a theoretically healthy Watkins. Where you value McCoy relative to Freeman and Gordon depends on your answer to that.  (For all his faults J. Matthews has been durable in his career.)

 

Quote

 I think he may have a similar year to his 2014 when he had about 1400 yards and 5 TDs

 

Yeah that's his floor. I would note he had a minor injury that year that appeared to slow him, especially early in the season. 

 

2014 and 2012 are why I am not too afraid. His talent is such that his floor is still back-end RB1 production, even on a bad team like the 2012 Eagles. His ceiling is what we saw last year and in 2013 and 2011. 

[burninglegs 10,836]

5 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 Is Matthews/Jones a massive downgrade from a hobbled Watkins/Woods? That's the real question, not a theoretically healthy Watkins. Where you value McCoy relative to Freeman and Gordon depends on your answer to that.  (For all his faults J. Matthews has been durable in his career.)

 

Matthews is already hobbled with a sternum fracture. 

[nk3323 36]

9 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

That is my inclination. People act like Watkins 1) played regularly last year 2) produced when he actually played. Is Matthews/Jones a massive downgrade from a hobbled Watkins/Woods? That's the real question, not a theoretically healthy Watkins. Where you value McCoy relative to Freeman and Gordon depends on your answer to that.  (For all his faults J. Matthews has been durable in his career.)

 

 

Yeah that's his floor. I would note he had a minor injury that year that appeared to slow him, especially early in the season. 

 

2014 and 2012 are why I am not too afraid. His talent is such that his floor is still back-end RB1 production, even on a bad team like the 2012 Eagles. His ceiling is what we saw last year and in 2013 and 2011. 

 

i hear ya,,, but i just don't think the TD opportunities will be there.  The yards will be, but the since the Bills will be worse this year, the TDs might not

[Ace_King 574]

23 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

 

Matthews is already hobbled with a sternum fracture. 

 

Yeah but isn't he expected to be fine for the RS? 

 

Here are Watkins' game logs for the 8 games he played last year:

 

4/43/0.

2/20/0.

3/80/0.

3/38/0.

4/54/1.

1/10/0.

7/154/1.

4/31/0.

 

Hardly a dominating presence. 

 

Watkins missed games 3-10. Here are McCoy's lines in those games:

 

17/110/2 rushing, 3/6/0 receiving.

19/70/0 rushing, 6/38/1 receiving.

18/150/0 rushing, 2/8/0 receiving.

19/140/3 rushing, 1/2/0 receiving.

8/11/0 rushing, 0/0/0 receiving. (This is the game McCoy played hurt and left early.)

21/85/0 rushing, 4/35/0 receiving.

5/33/1 rushing, 2/12/0 receiving. (McCoy played half the game.)

 

In total he averaged 86 rushing yards when Watkins didn't play and 84 rushing yards when he did play. 

McCoy averaged 14 receiving yards without Watkins and 32 receiving yards when Watkins played.

 

The above is skewed a bit since two of the games McCoy left early happened when Watkins was out but it is pretty safe to say Watkins had little to no impact on McCoy's rushing. McCoy appeared to be relied on more as a receiver with Watkins--but the summer signs are the Bills' plan to use McCoy in a greater receiving role this year than last year so that does not concern me.

 

As a bonus, Week 7 without both Watkins and Robert Woods, saw McCoy post 104 yards from scrimmage. Let's remember in this case they will be replaced by Matthews and Jones--much better than the scrubs that filled in for Week 7.

 

Quote

i hear ya,,, but i just don't think the TD opportunities will be there.  The yards will be, but the since the Bills will be worse this year, the TDs might not

 

I agree. I see 7-9 touchdowns for him along with 120-130 yards from scrimmage per game (all of this is if he stays healthy all season, which is unlikely, since he probably will miss a game or two and parts of others). 

 

Buffalo's general team context is concerning but I don't see Watkins' departure as impacting him to any appreciable degree. I can see people taking Freeman or Gordon over McCoy but Watkins shouldn't be a major factor in that decision.

Edited August 27, 2017 by Ace_King

[lightweight3 221]

4 hours ago, Br0kenB said:

We are horrible offensively. I'm staying as far away from McCoy as possible.

I was dead set on taking McCoy in the first until I saw how bad the bills looked yesterday.  I think I'm with you that I have to pass on him now.

[S1mcity 360]

4 minutes ago, lightweight3 said:

I was dead set on taking McCoy in the first until I saw how bad the bills looked yesterday.  I think I'm with you that I have to pass on him now.

 

Pre

 

 

season

 

 

 

preseason 

[lightweight3 221]

20 minutes ago, S1mcity said:

 

Pre

 

 

season

 

 

 

preseason 

Good point.  Still on the shady bandwagon.  He's going to be their whole offense.

Edited August 27, 2017 by lightweight3

[theSPANKER 2,150]

1 hour ago, lightweight3 said:

Good point.  Still on the shady bandwagon.  He's going to be their whole offense.

Hard to pass on that...just make sure you cuff him with Williams.

[scheibler 752]

This reminds me of steven jackson...awesome rb, but a s--- team will force him to face a stacked box all year

[lightweight3 221]

10 minutes ago, scheibler said:

This reminds me of steven jackson...awesome rb, but a s--- team will force him to face a stacked box all year

When you look at it, I think their WRs are as good as what they actually put on the field last year with Watkins out.  He should be fine.  Def not a sure thing like what I previously thought.

[CamNewton 755]

15 minutes ago, scheibler said:

This reminds me of steven jackson...awesome rb, but a s--- team will force him to face a stacked box all year

Are you really comparing Tyrod to an injury plagued Sam Bradford when he was on the Rams his first three seasons and Marc Bulger on the last leg of his career?

[Impreza178 6,046]

14 minutes ago, scheibler said:

This reminds me of steven jackson...awesome rb, but a s--- team will force him to face a stacked box all year

 

Steven Jackson vs Shady not close to the same.  He's much more Faulk than SJax

Bulger vs Tyrod-nope

rams o line was Pace and no one else 

Buff o line is solid. 

 

'Tis the season for random comps I guess...

 

[CamNewton 755]

2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Steven Jackson vs Shady not close to the same.  He's much more Faulk than SJax

Bulger vs Tyrod-nope

rams o line was Pace and no one else 

Buff o line is solid. 

 

'Tis the season for random comps I guess...

 

Exactly. The Bills won't be good this season, but they're not going to be a dumpster fire. Shady is a top 5 RB behind an average offensive line and a competent QB. He's going to be very good barring injury. Sure the receiving options aren't there. Sure the defense is going to be bad. Although that's just going to mean the offense has more chances to feed McCoy. I love McCoy this year. The only question I have is will he or won't he break down at some point and get injured. But that's why I've cuffed him.

[Impreza178 6,046]

Just now, CamNewton said:

Exactly. The Bills won't be good this season, but they're not going to be a dumpster fire. Shady is a top 5 RB behind an average offensive line and a competent QB. He's going to be very good barring injury. Sure the receiving options aren't there. Sure the defense is going to be bad. Although that's just going to mean the offense has more chances to feed McCoy. I love McCoy this year. The only question I have is will he or won't he break down at some point and get injured. But that's why I've cuffed him.

 

U sir...have hit the nail on the head 

 

Shady is focused on the hall of fame and there's no reason he can't catch 70+ balls and average 20-30 touches a game.   This is a potential MONSTER of a season lining up.   Plus a clear cut backup.

 Speaking of: 

J Wlllams has looked great. 70-80% of Mccoys production is reasonable in case of emergency.   

[theSPANKER 2,150]

5 minutes ago, CamNewton said:

Exactly. The Bills won't be good this season, but they're not going to be a dumpster fire. Shady is a top 5 RB behind an average offensive line and a competent QB. He's going to be very good barring injury. Sure the receiving options aren't there. Sure the defense is going to be bad. Although that's just going to mean the offense has more chances to feed McCoy. I love McCoy this year. The only question I have is will he or won't he break down at some point and get injured. But that's why I've cuffed him.

Are we sure Williams is the cuff?

[scheibler 752]

12 minutes ago, CamNewton said:

Are you really comparing Tyrod to an injury plagued Sam Bradford when he was on the Rams his first three seasons and Marc Bulger on the last leg of his career?

 

Yep. Bradturd was actually decent his rookie year. The bills are awful

[owenmills 5,326]

I just hope they leave Shady in late in games when they're getting their doors blown off so he can get some garbage time action. I think we'll be ok if that happens but with his injury history I would hate to see him get pulled from games that are over by the 4th quarter(pretty much every game)

Edited August 27, 2017 by owenmills