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LeSean McCoy 2017 Season Outlook


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I think out of all the teams, the possible destinations that stick out the most are as followed:

 

 

DEN

PHI

NYG

TB

 

PHI or NYG seem most likely, but teams like DEN and TB would have a lot to gain based off their current positions (CJ Anderson???? and Doug Martin??)

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52 minutes ago, CamNewton said:

1) He's not getting traded.

 

2) Packers, Eagles, Giants in that order.

You sound pretty certain about that.  

Why couldn't he possibly be traded if any of those teams see him as the key piece that wins them the Super Bowl? 

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No mention of KC?  With Andy Reid, I think this makes the most sense as a potential landing spot.  From a fantasy perspective, Hunt has extreme value right now.  But from an NFL perspective, Andy would feel more comfortable with a veteran workhorse like Shady IMO.  

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1 hour ago, theSPANKER said:

You sound pretty certain about that.  

Why couldn't he possibly be traded if any of those teams see him as the key piece that wins them the Super Bowl? 

This isn't Trent Richardson we are talking about where the Browns knew the dumpster fire they had with him and sold at an all-time high. This is a potential future Hall of Famer. The Bills may be tanking, but there aren't many spots that make for a realistic option for McCoy landing money wise.

 

The only teams that will be willing to trade for McCoy this season are contenders. So let's examine a couple of trade partners that make sense in terms of the team needing a running back, and then look at how the money situation.

 

Giants: The Giants have the eighth least available cap space in 2017, making a trade for McCoy highly unlikely.

Lions: The salary cap blocks this potential trade, as McCoy is due for a $6.3 base salary this season. Detroit only has $6.7 million in available cap space this season. Even with a trade, the Lions would be dangerously close to the limit.

Chiefs: The issue here again is cap space, as the Chiefs only have $8.9 million available. Even more of an issue is in 2018, when Kansas City is currently projected to be $4.3 million over the salary cap.

Eagles: While possible with $11.3 million available under the cap, the major problem is next season. The Eagles only project to be $195,000 under the cap next season. Without some major roster changes, this won't work either.

Colts: Here's a situation where the available cap space works out with $21 million. Although with Luck on the mend, Kelly out for the year, and the recent signing of Matt Jones this destination looks more unlikely now than it did a couple weeks ago.

Packers: This is the only landing spot that makes sense cap wise where McCoy would be going to a contender with a RB need. Green Bay too has around $21 million in cap space just like Indy. The issue here is that the Packers have always been a franchise that has been draft and develop. They're never in the past decade plus made a move like this. It's just not how they run things. They rarely shed out big money for offensive skill positions via free agency, much less pull off a trade of this magnitude. It'd be going against everything they've done for ages.

 

From a fantasy standpoint, we're better off with McCoy in Buffalo than Detroit or Indy. With the offensive line issues and Luck's health, Indy would be a worse situation fantasy wise than Buffalo. At least Buffalo has a better QB situation and offensive line for the time being. As for Detroit, their offensive line ranked 30th in run-blocking efficiency last season, and they just lost starting left tackle Taylor Decker for four to six months after suffering a torn labrum.

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A trade would almost definitely hurt his fantasy value. When is the last time a stud RB was traded midseason and flourished on the new team. It rarely happens but when it does it's never a fantasy upgrade at least for that season. Let's hope he stays in Buffalo and stays healthy.

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52 minutes ago, CamNewton said:

This isn't Trent Richardson we are talking about where the Browns knew the dumpster fire they had with him and sold at an all-time high. This is a potential future Hall of Famer. The Bills may be tanking, but there aren't many spots that make for a realistic option for McCoy landing money wise.

 

The only teams that will be willing to trade for McCoy this season are contenders. So let's examine a couple of trade partners that make sense in terms of the team needing a running back, and then look at how the money situation.

 

Giants: The Giants have the eighth least available cap space in 2017, making a trade for McCoy highly unlikely.

Lions: The salary cap blocks this potential trade, as McCoy is due for a $6.3 base salary this season. Detroit only has $6.7 million in available cap space this season. Even with a trade, the Lions would be dangerously close to the limit.

Chiefs: The issue here again is cap space, as the Chiefs only have $8.9 million available. Even more of an issue is in 2018, when Kansas City is currently projected to be $4.3 million over the salary cap.

Eagles: While possible with $11.3 million available under the cap, the major problem is next season. The Eagles only project to be $195,000 under the cap next season. Without some major roster changes, this won't work either.

Colts: Here's a situation where the available cap space works out with $21 million. Although with Luck on the mend, Kelly out for the year, and the recent signing of Matt Jones this destination looks more unlikely now than it did a couple weeks ago.

Packers: This is the only landing spot that makes sense cap wise where McCoy would be going to a contender with a RB need. Green Bay too has around $21 million in cap space just like Indy. The issue here is that the Packers have always been a franchise that has been draft and develop. They're never in the past decade plus made a move like this. It's just not how they run things. They rarely shed out big money for offensive skill positions via free agency, much less pull off a trade of this magnitude. It'd be going against everything they've done for ages.

 

From a fantasy standpoint, we're better off with McCoy in Buffalo than Detroit or Indy. With the offensive line issues and Luck's health, Indy would be a worse situation fantasy wise than Buffalo. At least Buffalo has a better QB situation and offensive line for the time being. As for Detroit, their offensive line ranked 30th in run-blocking efficiency last season, and they just lost starting left tackle Taylor Decker for four to six months after suffering a torn labrum.

Nice post!  Appreciate you breaking that down for all of us here.  

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10 hours ago, CamNewton said:

 

As for Detroit, their offensive line ranked 30th in run-blocking efficiency last season, and they just lost starting left tackle Taylor Decker for four to six months after suffering a torn labrum.

 

Great post, and I don't disagree with your assessments.  I don't see McCoy going to the Lions either, but that's mostly because acquiring an expensive vet isn't Bob Quinn's style.  They also had the chance to grab one of the many rookie RB's in the draft, but opted to stick with who they had.

 

As a Lions fanboy, I feel compelled to clarify a couple of things.  Decker was lost in OTA's back in June.  He's been out of a sling for over a month now, and as far as the public knows, is right on schedule in terms of recovery.  An October return is not beyond the realm of possibility.  They acquired Greg Robinson to fill in until then.  GR was a major bust, but he has looked solid so far this preseason.  They also made major upgrades to the right side by signing Wagner and Lang in the offseason.  Assuming GR can hold down LT until Decker is healed, that makes LG their only real weak spot on the Oline.  And when Decker returns, the Lions have the option of moving GR to the inside.   

 

I know the game isn't played on paper, but Decker, Robinson, Swanson, Lang, Wagner is a solid unit.  It's definitely not the same line that was ranked at the bottom of the league last year.  I don't expect them to lead the league in rushing or anything, but a jump to the middle of the pack seems plausible.  

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Health Cummings CBS Sports wrote this commentary regarding Williams being cut from Buffalo and how it impacts Shady:

"LeSean McCoy is a threat to lead the NFL in touches this season"

"One of the more surprising cuts of the past week was Jonathan Williams. Williams has looked good in limited action and he was the only qualified back up to LeSean McCoy in Buffalo. There's little doubt that Williams will be picked up by someone soon, but the depth chart in Buffalo now leaves much to be desired.

Joe Banyard now looks like the backup running back, though Patrick DiMarco and Mike Tolbert could both see work in short yardage and the passing game. This is a team that gave over 500 touches to their running backs in 2016 and traded away their best receiver in the offseason. McCoy is going to be fed like no one else."

 

Verdict: Believe it

"I have McCoy ranked as the No. 4 running back behind David Johnson, Le'Veon Belland Devonta Freeman, but he has the upside to be the No. 1 back on volume alone. His career high in carries is 314 (2013) and he caught 78 passes in 2010. Could McCoy challenge both of those marks? Absolutely. Then why do I have him ranked No. 4?

Rankings are combination of upside and risk, and a 29 year-old back on a very bad team is already pretty risky. When you add in the idea that his team looks like they want to give him 25 touches a game, well that's scary." 

 

Thoughts everyone?

 

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3 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

Thoughts everyone?

 

Yeah it's the classic push & pull of workhorse RB looking at massive volume on a bad team(e.g. lack of scoring opportunities/poor quality touches). I don't know what to think but after the top 2 RB they all have question marks so we'll see what happens. I think it could be either way with him, huge year or huge bust if Buffalo comes out sucking hard and he gets dinged early. 

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If he stays healthy, he's virtually guaranteed to be a top 5 PPR running back. The team being horrible and playing from behind is like the best case scenario for him. He'll end up catching a gazillion passes and eating in garbage time. Situation and gamescripts are irrelevant. The only thing that can derail him would be an injury. Granted, with the massive workload he's expecting, that's a legit concern. 

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55 minutes ago, Brettg57 said:

Goodwin and woods come to mind. 

 

Exactly. What they have now is at minimum comparable to what they had last year imo. People keep acting as if Watkins was a dominant presence. He simply wasn't last year.

 

Quote

When you add in the idea that his team looks like they want to give him 25 touches a game, well that's scary." 

 

That is scary (although everyone is fine with injury prone Bell getting that type of workload and Arians saying the same for DJ!) but I doubt he will wind up with that average simply because he won't play late in many games the Bills are losing badly. 

 

Quote

 I don't know what to think but after the top 2 RB they all have question marks so we'll see what happens

 

I would argue every RB except DJ has questions. Bell is as big an injury risk as any top RB and is a suspension risk as well. 

 

 

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56 minutes ago, skye2388 said:

Tyrod, Jordan Matthews, Zay Jones, and Charles Clay ... I feel like that's a pretty decent supporting cast

 

That's a horrible supporting cast, though I'll agree that the OL is very good.  Tyrod seems very uncomfortable in this offense, Clay was mediocre back when he had two functioning knees, Matthews isn't a playmaker, who is Zay Jones?

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8 hours ago, Nap Time said:

 

That's a horrible supporting cast, though I'll agree that the OL is very good.  Tyrod seems very uncomfortable in this offense, Clay was mediocre back when he had two functioning knees, Matthews isn't a playmaker, who is Zay Jones?

I think the point is the supporting cast was horrible last season too.  I mean Watkins was out most of season and Shady did fine, who else was there as a supporting cast last year?  If Matthews actually plays it would be better for the offense than a Sammy Watkins on the IR.

Edited by Kyle87
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3 hours ago, Kyle87 said:

I think the point is the supporting cast was horrible last season too.  I mean Watkins was out most of season and Shady did fine, who else was there as a supporting cast last year?  If Matthews actually plays it would be better for the offense than a Sammy Watkins on the IR.

 

Supporting cast is worse than last season, Tyrod is a vertical passer and zay+jordan are not vertical threats, neither of them stretch the field. So Tyrod now has fewer weapons tat match his strengths and just finished a concussion protocol.  None of this is good for shady to perform at optimal production.  Shady is of course the focal point of the offense and he will have a massive workload however there is a difference between having a workload  where you shovel wet cement vs dry cement.  His workload is looking like wet cement.

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still over thinking, the fact people are worried about going from robert woods to jordan mathews and zay jones as an excuse to be down on shady, is just embarrassing why even bump the thread with such pointless worries, at least talk about injury risk or workload being too much like a few posts have been thats about the only worries

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7 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

still over thinking, the fact people are worried about going from robert woods to jordan mathews and zay jones as an excuse to be down on shady, is just embarrassing why even bump the thread with such pointless worries, at least talk about injury risk or workload being too much like a few posts have been thats about the only worries

 

 

No I think the concern is people are seeing the Bills mgmt demolish the team before the season started by eliminating any credible supporting cast and extrpolating that into how it will affect Shady's season long performance.  Nothing hurts a team more than players knowing the mgmt does not want them to win and is systematically doing so.

Ignoring the facts as if Shady and his performance is immune to all of it is rather silly

Edited by dashoe
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On 9/3/2017 at 10:34 PM, owenmills said:

A trade would almost definitely hurt his fantasy value. When is the last time a stud RB was traded midseason and flourished on the new team. It rarely happens but when it does it's never a fantasy upgrade at least for that season. Let's hope he stays in Buffalo and stays healthy.

 

Eric Dickerson....yes, its been awhile (although I could be overlooking someone)

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2 minutes ago, Knicks2689 said:

The supporting cast sucked last year as well. McCoy is a transcendent talent as long as he is healthy he will produce it's pretty simple.

 

 

Bills were not tanking last season, the team was legitimatley trying to make the playoffs. Completely new coachign staff and front office this season with a completely new strategy on rebuilding. All of that filters down to the players on the field and their performance. Fanboy optimism doesnt overcome certain realities.

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

No I think the concern is people are seeing the Bills mgmt demolish the team before the season started by eliminating any credible supporting cast and extrpolating that into how it will affect Shady's season long performance.  Nothing hurts a team more than players knowing the mgmt does not want them to win and is systematically doing so.

Ignoring the facts as if Shady and his performance is immune to all of it is rather silly

 

so your telling me roberts woods and whoever the no.2 WR last year was because i cant even name him is >>>> zay jones and jordan mathews to the point shady's production will be negatively affected?

 

that sir, is asinine and just crazy frankly

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