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LeSean McCoy 2017 Season Outlook


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8 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

 

You guys are probably what, 2-4 years from contending depending how lucky you get with the rebuild and drafting? Seems like the team doesn't trust Tyrod nor really want him as their QB of the future. So they will need to draft a QB + hope the QB turns out and develops in a timely manner. Plus the other pieces needed on offense and defense. 

 

McCoy trade is probably contingent on being able to find a partner that needs someone like McCoy. Looking at playoff contenders who need help at RB, there aren't too many at the moment. Obviously if injuries take place during the preseason/regular season that would change things. Maybe Lions if the Abdullah/Zenner/Riddick 3 headed monster doesn't do much. Maybe NYG? Just not too many teams in desperate need of someone like McCoy at the moment.

 

Pretty sure the Colts would bite 

 

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Yeah I guess if the Ty Montgomery experiment fails in GB, McCoy would be a great addition for them.

 

I don't know, the Colts don't seem serious about winning as they haven't fixed the o-line for Luck yet again. Only a matter of time before he gets injured this season. But McCoy would be a great addition there as well. Would be fun to see him in that offense if he does get moved.

Edited by burninglegs
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a lot of things have me worried about the situation in buffalo right now, watkins was traded, boldin left the team to retire, tyrod had a rough couple of preseason games. 

 

how do you guys think buffalos current struggles impact shady’s fantasy value? 

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I read somewhere  that they are also trying to trade Shady...   I keep trying to think of a contending team that needs a good running back to compete for the conference and besides the Giants, I'm kinda drawing a blank....    

 

Maybe after this third preseason game a team will need Shady if they lose their starter to injury, or a team like the Chiefs with Reid would rather have Shady be the lead back to make one final run with Alex Smith while working Hunt in for the Mahomes/Hunt future...

 

On another note I had/have plans to rotate defenses based on who plays the Jets that week and now it's Buffalo vs Jets week 1 which should have been doable but if the Jets don't have to deal with even a decent buffalo offense it makes it much creepier to trust the bills considering the Jets will have the ball more than they would have with Sammy/Anquan/maybe Shady. ..

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14 minutes ago, General Gannicus said:

I read somewhere  that they are also trying to trade Shady...   I keep trying to think of a contending team that needs a good running back to compete for the conference and besides the Giants, I'm kinda drawing a blank....    

 

 

The Packers, but Thompson doesn't usually make those kind of moves.

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7 minutes ago, PackerBacker555 said:

I'm staying away from him 

 

packers wont get him, they have used picks on the position. What about going back to Philadelphia in a new regime if Blount gets cut?

That would be an ideal situation given that Philly has the best offensive line in the league. It's not happening though. I think he stays in Buffalo.

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There are a lot of risk factors this year, whereas last year there were pretty much none.  The one new positive is that the coaches say they want McCoy to catch more passes.  One other positive is a very cheap handcuff (Jonathan Williams ADP 14th round).

 

One question I have is whether the new OC, a Kubiak disciple, is making any changes from power blocking to zone blocking.  Anybody know?

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Watkins' departure and Boldin's retirement are obviously not good developments for McCoy's outlook--but he has played well with or without Watkins in Buffalo. Boldin would have been a good piece but he wasn't a game changer, outside of the end zone (losing him could mean more GL work for McCoy), at this point. Wasn't Buffalo without both their top two receivers (Watkins, Woods) at some point last season while McCoy continued to beast?

 

A receiving corps with a healthy Matthews and Zay Jones may be an upgrade or at worst a slight downgrade over what the Bills' actually put on the field last year, even if much worse than what could have been with a (theoretical) healthy Watkins. Even when Watkins played he didn't do much last year. 

 

McCoy's success is tied to his elite talent, his great offensive line and having a running QB. If Taylor loses his gig that would cause me some concern and downgrade him behind Freeman and maybe Gordon.

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1 hour ago, coffey22 said:

a lot of things have me worried about the situation in buffalo right now, watkins was traded, boldin left the team to retire, tyrod had a rough couple of preseason games. 

 

how do you guys think buffalos current struggles impact shady’s fantasy value? 

 

The narrative has been all about a rebuild, usually being a toxic environment for runningback due to bad game scripts. It seems scary to me with his price being a 1st round pick in a game where 1st round busts can ruin your entire year. I tend to play it safe with my first round picks.

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 I thought there were some red flags before the Watkins trade/Boldin leaving, etc. Was still gonna take him latter half of the first round though. Now I will probably take him if he slips to middle of round 2. Buffalo seems like a sinking ship and it's possible they either run him into the ground and he gets hurt or they limit his workload to see what they have in their younger backs. There will also be a LOT of stacked boxes against this team with very little passing game. Plus they lost run guru Anthony Lynn. He is probably the least safe choice I can think of in round 1. He could be great again but I can foresee many scenarios in which it's a lost year should he stay in BUF. I think he would suit the Giants nicely. That offense is lacking a good RB and his style would work good on a team that doesn't exactly create gaping holes.

 

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40 minutes ago, GOAT-dell Beckham said:

 

The narrative has been all about a rebuild, usually being a toxic environment for runningback due to bad game scripts. It seems scary to me with his price being a 1st round pick in a game where 1st round busts can ruin your entire year. I tend to play it safe with my first round picks.

so where do you rank mccoy? what rbs would you take over him?

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27 minutes ago, CamNewton said:

Everyone is so down on him because of the lack of receivers, but when did Adrian Peterson have any receivers in his entire stint with the Vikings? Harvin is the only one that comes to mind.

also it’s not only the lack of receivers its the entire bills organization, they seem to be in full rebuild mode and there are so many uncertainties with qb and whether mccoy will be traded. just so many question marks w a very high first round pick

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24 minutes ago, coffey22 said:

so where do you rank mccoy? what rbs would you take over him?

 

Freeman is the one I can see taking over him right now, although I have McCoy ahead of him. Gordon, Ajayi, and Howard all have their own question marks, including importantly a lack of a track record of elite production. Murray has that track record but he has the Henry issue and the possible risk of a time share down the stretch.

 

Personally I am still going to be in on McCoy--unless I start hearing some bad trade rumors. At this point if he is traded it would be to a situation that is likely a wash (i.e., perhaps a worse offensive line but a better offense and more scoring opportunities and positive game scripts) so a trade does not concern me. I would only get concerned if I start hearing about a team wanting to trade for him to put him in a committee--which is unlikely. If you are trading for an elite 29 year old RB you aren't doing that to put him in a committee. The Eagles, Giants, or Packers (all RB needy teams) would be be upgrades for McCoy. 

 

Quote

I can't believe people would take McCoy over OBJ or Julio. McCoy carries a 50% busk risk. The other two are a virtual lock to be studs barring a freak injury.

 

Jones is more of an injury risk than McCoy. 

 

I prefer elite RBs over elite WRs if they are close because the former have more week-to-week consistency and it is a weekly game. Jones had how many games where he didn't show up last year? Moreover, you can't handcuff WRs. I had Green in half my leagues last year. He played very well--but I was screwed for half the season. When McCoy went down I had Gillisee provide some value in his place. You couldn't do that with Tyler Boyd. A first round WR going down hurts your team a lot more than a first round RB getting hurt does, providing said RB has a viable handcuff. 

 

Give me McCoy over any WR other than Brown.

Edited by Ace_King
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53 minutes ago, coffey22 said:

also it’s not only the lack of receivers its the entire bills organization, they seem to be in full rebuild mode and there are so many uncertainties with qb and whether mccoy will be traded. just so many question marks w a very high first round pick

I feel you, but he's still going to be THE centerpiece of that offense as I don't see them being able to trade him unless they lower their asking price. I'd be comfortable taking him after DJ, Bell, Brown, OBJ, Julio, and Green are off the board.

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1 hour ago, CamNewton said:

Everyone is so down on him because of the lack of receivers, but when did Adrian Peterson have any receivers in his entire stint with the Vikings? Harvin is the only one that comes to mind.

 

Peterson was a freak. And he did with some of the worst quarterbacks imaginable (Tavarres Jackson, Gus Frerotte, Christian Ponder), but I still view these as two different situations. Running backs start to really fall off at age 29. If Tyrod gets benched as many expect, it's going to be even easier to sit on the run. The Bills don't have a legit field stretcher either. There is almost no reason for teams to just load up on McCoy. Red flags all over the place. I think this team will struggle to move the ball as well, and McCoy won't find much room. On pure talent alone and the fact that there aren't many good rb1's, he's still worth a pick in the 10-15 range, but I'd have a realll tough time spending a top 10 pick on him. 

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6 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

Peterson was a freak. And he did with some of the worst quarterbacks imaginable (Tavarres Jackson, Gus Frerotte, Christian Ponder), but I still view these as two different situations. Running backs start to really fall off at age 29. If Tyrod gets benched as many expect, it's going to be even easier to sit on the run. The Bills don't have a legit field stretcher either. There is almost no reason for teams to just load up on McCoy. Red flags all over the place. I think this team will struggle to move the ball as well, and McCoy won't find much room. On pure talent alone and the fact that there aren't many good rb1's, he's still worth a pick in the 10-15 range, but I'd have a realll tough time spending a top 10 pick on him. 

What RBs are you going to argue should be picked over him though? Outside of DJ and Bell, everyone comes with some sort of concern be it major or minor. The only guy going after McCoy that I might consider taking over him is Freeman. I don't like Gordon or Murray as much as I like McCoy because both of those guys come with concerns of their own. Gordon had five carries inside the 10-yard line in 2015 and 29 in 2016. There's definitely going to be some regression there. It’s also unlikely Gordon will get as many targets in the passing game as he did in 2016 (4.4 per game), having benefited from the injuries to Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead and Branden Oliver over the course of the season. In regards to Murray, he will in all likelihood lose a portion of his touches to Henry. 

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On August 13, 2017 at 8:17 PM, burninglegs said:

 

You guys are probably what, 2-4 years from contending depending how lucky you get with the rebuild and drafting? Seems like the team doesn't trust Tyrod nor really want him as their QB of the future. So they will need to draft a QB + hope the QB turns out and develops in a timely manner. Plus the other pieces needed on offense and defense. 

 

McCoy trade is probably contingent on being able to find a partner that needs someone like McCoy. Looking at playoff contenders who need help at RB, there aren't too many at the moment. Obviously if injuries take place during the preseason/regular season that would change things. Maybe Lions if the Abdullah/Zenner/Riddick 3 headed monster doesn't do much. Maybe NYG? Just not too many teams in desperate need of someone like McCoy at the moment.

kindle the opposite imo, theres a surprising amount of playoff caliber teams that need a star rb. Packers, giants, pats all come to mind. Throw in eagles, colts, and redksins for team that might think they have a chance but really don't. I might be missing some teams here too but thats 6 off the top of my head with bad starting rbs. Or at the very least abs who haven't proven themselves. This is leaving out surprise teams too like I think the seahawks would benefit a lot from shady personally 

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4 hours ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

Peterson was a freak. And he did with some of the worst quarterbacks imaginable (Tavarres Jackson, Gus Frerotte, Christian Ponder), but I still view these as two different situations. Running backs start to really fall off at age 29. If Tyrod gets benched as many expect, it's going to be even easier to sit on the run. The Bills don't have a legit field stretcher either. There is almost no reason for teams to just load up on McCoy. Red flags all over the place. I think this team will struggle to move the ball as well, and McCoy won't find much room. On pure talent alone and the fact that there aren't many good rb1's, he's still worth a pick in the 10-15 range, but I'd have a realll tough time spending a top 10 pick on him. 

 

Steven Jackson in his prime in St. Louis may be comparable.  Workhorse RBs who were good taking handoffs and good in the passing game in pretty bad offenses on pretty bad teams.  Playing style and physique very different of course.  

 

For McCoy, all of those factors plus the fact that he has tended to have nagging injuries as a high workload season progresses (last season being the exception)--plus the age--makes me leery.  I'd probably rather have the Murray/Henry combo or a lower-risk elite WR1, all things considered.  But McCoy will have a massive workload that very few players are likely to get right now, if he can hold up to it.  Hard to fault anyone for taking him mid-first for that reason alone.

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I've learned in fantasy over the last couple of years to take a player in the 1st round with the least amount of risk and guraranteed production. I see 4 WR that are much safer after the top 2 RB and before the next tier of RB (McCoy, Freeman, Gordon.) I keep hearing this "If I don't take McCoy in the first I don't like my team" narrative that is pure self-deception. How many people that took Lamar Miller before the season last year in the first round thought their team looked good on paper? When McCoy busts and your WR aren't as strong, you're already behind the 8-ball in RB and WR. Fantasy is all about having a weekly point advantage over the other team. I would much rather have a RB taken in rounds 4-7 bust than a RB in the top 2 rounds. 

 

I still think McCoy can be a good fantasy player and I would take him at the end of round one if I could pair him with another RB1 or a WR1. Picks 4-6 don't get cute and take the WR.

Edited by ponchsox
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