ponza88

Josh Gordon 2017 Season Outlook

Recommended Posts

27 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

So if he’s WR1 for the rest of the season then he should be in the top 10 in all weekly rankings right??

 

Who cares about weekly rankings? They all under projected him last week what makes you think these "experts" watched an entire browns game to see how good he really looks? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, reichl555 said:

No, just burned me very badly in 2014 surrounding the same amount of hype as he’s getting presently in this thread now.  Fool me once...

It is fair to be disappointed in his 2014 season but that should not discount what he did the year prior. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll take him first overall because no one else has the ******** right to draft him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As far as where Gordon goes next year, I think you'll probably see a lot of variance.  'Experts' probably won't have him ranked in the top-12 due to the risk and unknowns, so naturally his ADP is going to sit right around where the 'big' sites have him pre-ranked.  95% of fantasy players are casual or free and will just draft with the rankings the site gives them, more or less.  More serious players will look at the ADP's and pick out where you think you can get a deal, and then wait as long as you think you can before someone else gets him.

 

Even if you think JG is a 1st round talent, if his ADP were 24-36 range for example, you're over-paying if you buy him at pick 8, unless you really think someone else is going to snipe you.  If the "asking price" is posted at pick 30, and you think he's better than that, you're still not maximizing your return if you take him in the 1st.  I'm not saying this is exactly what the case will be, just the point is the so-called experts will set his price, and the real fantasy players will mark it up a little bit, but he shouldn't go significantly higher than that.

 

I think the poster who said 2nd round / TY territory is likely pretty close.  Assuming he is good ROS and Cleveland does something intelligent at QB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Who cares about weekly rankings? They all under projected him last week what makes you think these "experts" watched an entire browns game to see how good he really looks? 

Looking at rankings is a great tool to help you make your decisions. It is literally their job to analyze players, teams, matchups and make educated guesses from there. That being said, it should only be used as a supplemental tool and not taken as gospel. Fantasy is too unpredictable. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Who cares about weekly rankings? They all under projected him last week what makes you think these "experts" watched an entire browns game to see how good he really looks? 

 

For those CBS league readers.  

 

Don’t you just love the weekly evaluation emails.  Like when they project 10pts for one WR and 10.5pts for another.  Then they act like you’re a moron when you played the 10, who happened to put up less points that week?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

It is fair to be disappointed in his 2014 season but that should not discount what he did the year prior. 

That’s the thing though.  Everyone is going back to that one and only good year.  If he had 2-3 years leading up to 2014 then I would most likely discredit 2014 as an outlier.  I’ll be the first one to say if he had a legit QB throwing to him the sky’s the limit for this kid.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

That’s the thing though.  Everyone is going back to that one and only good year.  If he had 2-3 years leading up to 2014 then I would most likely discredit 2014 as an outlier.  I’ll be the first one to say if he had a legit QB throwing to him the sky’s the limit for this kid.

But he has never had a good QB throwing him the ball. And he had a historical season through 14 games; hard to say an entire season could be viewed as an outlier. How much more do you need to see? Will he ever have a season as great as 2013? Probably not. But there is enough data to support taking Gordon with a relatively early round pick. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Kizer can hit Gordon on some of those deep throws where Gordon was open and streaking to the EZ, or if not but Gordon continues to dominate CBs and the Browns upgrade at QB in the offseason, then it's possible Gordon goes at the top of the 1st, if not 1st overall. The hype will be unreal, but it goes beyond that.

 

If Gordon balls out or gets a new QB, then he should go ahead of any RB because of positional value. Bell/David Johnson/Elliott/etc have insanely high floors and even higher ceilings (though I'd argue Gordon has a higher ceiling), but there's A LOT of value at RB. I think it may be due to a renewed focus on the RB position throughout the league, particularly those that are well-rounded (Kamara) and can be workhorses (Cook) There wasn't as big a drop-off between those guys and the second tier guys this year and there were soooo many of them: Kamara, Cook, Burkhead (last few weeks), etc. Next year, there'll be even more: Mike Davis, Mixon, Perine, Alex Collins, someone in GB, someone in OAK, someone in DET, etc. Then there's the McCoys and Gordons of the league. 

 

If Gordon balls out or gets a new QB, then he should go ahead of any WR except AB. Julio Jones ang AJG are way too inconsistent. OBJ has a lot of question marks bc of his ankle (look at what a fractured ankle did to Rawls). It's hard to argue against AB, but I could see Gordon > AB since there will be questions revolving around Roethlisberger and AB has more competition for touches.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jackson said more practice time will help Gordon and Kizer develop timing and that this first game was "just a start for Josh."

 

"Everybody else has to do their part too," Jackson said. "We can't just sit around and watch Josh."

 

I would disagree with Hue Jackson on this one, I think the proper thing to do is have everyone sit around and watch Josh make the plays.  Lets up those targets to 20 a game for Flash Gordon!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

That’s the thing though.  Everyone is going back to that one and only good year.  If he had 2-3 years leading up to 2014 then I would most likely discredit 2014 as an outlier.  I’ll be the first one to say if he had a legit QB throwing to him the sky’s the limit for this kid.

 

I would say 2012 was a pretty decent year considering he was a rookie and had garbage QBs to get him used to the NFL level.  So if you take his respectable numbers in 2012, then his great jump in 2013, why can’t you discredit 2014?  Hard to have three good years prior to that when 2014 was only his third year in the league....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I rolled out Gordon last week in an attempt to fire up Dez Bryant by showing him what a true #1 WR looks like.  I think it worked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

watch out!  Now Matthew Berry is saying Gordon should be in fantasy lineups for the playoffs.  An approval from Berry is like kryptonite to Superman.  Can Gordon still produce after this awful news?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Fearfulways said:

Starting him everywhere week 14. Guaranteed to find endzone

There are no “guarantees” with Kizer throwing him the ball.  But I think the “odds” are good he has 6+ catches.

 

Let’s say the odds are in favor of Gordon catching a TD. (>50%)

 

The odds are also good for a top10 performance.

 

I like being pleasantly surprised when one of my guys exceeds expectations.  Gordon is projected to put up 12 points, I’m almost “guaranteed” to be pleased.

 

Sometimes the stats are just off as the hype’sters here.  Splitting the difference would be about 22pts, that works for me...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, reichl555 said:

A high risk/high reward player that’s a recovering addict who plays for Cleveland and has Kizer throwing the  ball in the first round next year?? Haha, you lose.  2nd round at best and even that is high risk.

I love what you bring to this thread

 

If Gordon finishes strong and stays out of trouble he will be drafted in the first round next year .. Gordon has all the tools to succeed 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

I love what you bring to this thread

 

If Gordon finishes strong and stays out of trouble he will be drafted in the first round next year .. Gordon has all the tools to succeed 

Those are some big “ifs”. Can’t we all agree? And that’s the point I’m trying to make.  He had ALOT of chances leading up to this point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, reichl555 said:

That’s the thing though.  Everyone is going back to that one and only good year.  If he had 2-3 years leading up to 2014 then I would most likely discredit 2014 as an outlier.  I’ll be the first one to say if he had a legit QB throwing to him the sky’s the limit for this kid.

 

Not everyone. I look at wha has he done for me lately. last game 11 targets and 85yds on the Chargers best cb for 12 fantasy points.

I don't care about what he did in 2012-14 same as I dont care about what he did in college. All of that data helped me to determine should I place him on my roster when he became eligible a month ago and to start him last week. Every new piece of data  determines how I view Josh going forward.

I think he is an elite talent, i think he is a playmaker, i think his team will scheme to get him the ball and i think he will put up fantasy relevant points vs my other options.

It's really that simple.

You think too much buddy about 1wr  :huh:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

There are no “guarantees” with Kizer throwing him the ball.  But I think the “odds” are good he has 6+ catches.

 

Let’s say the odds are in favor of Gordon catching a TD. (>50%)

 

The odds are also good for a top10 performance.

 

I like being pleasantly surprised when one of my guys exceeds expectations.  Gordon is projected to put up 12 points, I’m almost “guaranteed” to be pleased.

 

Sometimes the stats are just off as the hype’sters here.  Splitting the difference would be about 22pts, that works for me...

Yep, one more week of practice and 6-111-1 is fairly realistic if Kizer can get him the ball.

 

He just missed out on some big plays last week. All he has to do is connect with one of them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Not everyone. I look at wha has he done for me lately. last game 11 targets and 85yds on the Chargers best cb for 12 fantasy points.

I don't care about what he did in 2012-14 same as I dont care about what he did in college. All of that data helped me to determine should I place him on my roster when he became eligible a month ago and to start him last week. Every new piece of data  determines how I view Josh going forward.

I think he is an elite talent, i think he is a playmaker, i think his team will scheme to get him the ball and i think he will put up fantasy relevant points vs my other options.

It's really that simple.

You think too much buddy about 1wr  :huh:

Apparently I’m not the only one.  This thread is 106 pages long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

Yep, one more week of practice and 6-111-1 is fairly realistic if Kizer can get him the ball.

 

He just missed out on some big plays last week. All he has to do is connect with one of them.

 

Realistic? Sure. Probable? Ehhh...

 

"All he has to do is connect" is literally "just needs to be a good QB" which isn't guaranteed here. Kizer has been terrible all year, so I don't expect him to magically start hitting his spots. His inaccuracy issues are not going to go away, and he is a terrible QB. That said, the Chargers D is pretty good, so I expect some relief there.

 

I am starting him in one league this week, then in another when I get out of the bye. I am expecting something similar to this week (4-6 catches, 85-90 yards). I would be very happy with 6-111-1. I would bet he hits that once over the last 4 games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

Apparently I’m not the only one.  This thread is 106 pages long.

 

Many of the doubters have mysteriously vanished after"rusty" Josh Gordon looked really good last week and put up solid numbers. They've realized that they were very wrong. You are the last of the Mohicans and I assume we won't see much of you after he puts up a big game this or next week. 

It's coming, the question is whether you will vanish, like the rest of the haters, when it happens or accept Josh Gordon as your saviour.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.