Homerj24

Aaron Judge 2017 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

 

Your point here could never have happen as Boston won the AL East and are the number 3 seed

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/postseason-picture/

 

 

Boston hasn't clinched yet.  If yanks win last 3 and Boston loses last 3, they will be tied (I'm assuming they both lose tonight).    They would play Monday, at Yankee Stadium, to declare division winner.    That game would count as a regular season game  

Edited by rich22

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6 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

What happens if three or more teams tie for the 2nd wild card berth.

 

 

My head would explode.   LOL.   Any game or games, played before the actual playoffs are considered regular season games and counted toward regular season stats.     I believe there would be a three team, three game tournament (.  In which every game would count toward regular season stats

 

http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/09/21/mets-giants-and-cardinals-are-deadlocked-for-two-wild-card-spots-and-heres-how-mlb-would-break-the-tie/

Edited by rich22

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Is this guy not one of the nicest most pleasant personalities as a teammate and leader that MLB has going?  Great rep.

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27 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

caught the game today, or at least part of it

 

Judge "cringed" when he ran out a ball to first base

has anyone heard anything about this?

@rich22

@absknicks

 

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16 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

 

I think they should be careful and rest him the final 2 games of the season (non-Judge owner in all my leagues)

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Man, he looked like a shaky back end 2nd round pick a month ago to a no doubt middle first rounder depending on league settings. I guess we could chalk Judges 6 week slump to it just being part of baseball where everyone slumps at some point. There is no denying in 4 1/2 months out of the 6 month season Judge has been the 1st or 2nd most important hitter in the AL (Altuve) and maybe being the MVP.  

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6 minutes ago, chud12 said:

Man, he looked like a shaky back end 2nd round pick a month ago to a no doubt middle first rounder depending on league settings. I guess we could chalk Judges 6 week slump to it just being part of baseball where everyone slumps at some point. There is no denying in 4 1/2 months out of the 6 month season Judge has been the 1st or 2nd most important hitter in the AL (Altuve) and maybe being the MVP.  

ya i might have to change how i look at him now....jeez

 

i thought i wouldnt take him in the 2nd, now im like this guy might be a late first

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He should be a first rounder in all leagues next year. 

Edited by absknicks

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1 hour ago, absknicks said:

He should be a first rounder in all leagues next year. 

even as  a yankee fan i disagree with this

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21 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

even as  a yankee fan i disagree with this

 

That's fine, doesn't make you right, though.

 

 

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22 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

even as  a yankee fan i disagree with this

 

Late first round sound right. There's risk but his numbers have been MVP-worthy.

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If you believe in statcast driven data, then know this:

 

Giancarlo Stanton has an xHR of 51.3, while Judge has an xHR of 56.6. Stanton seems to be projected to go in the 1st round of drafts, so there's no reason for Judge not to be considered for the 1st round, as well. I can tell you just by looking around at discussions and "expert" mock drafts, that Judge has been going in the mid to late 2nd round.

Edited by lassetjus

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40 minutes ago, exm said:

 

Late first round sound right. There's risk but his numbers have been MVP-worthy.

i wouldnt take stanton in the first either

 

just dont see myself taking Judge over Votto, Correa, Bryant

 

it could bite me in the butt, but thats just me

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.311/.463/.889 (223 wRC+) with 15 homers in September.  I'm thinking he might be closer to a .300 hitter than people want to admit.  He was hitting .330 before the slump, .311 after the slump, and there are some reasonable explanations for the slump that I mentioned earlier; HR Derby fatigue, shoulder injury, umps constantly adjusting the strike zone, and simply pressing during his first slump after becoming the biggest thing in baseball.

 

I mean, would you rather hang your hat on him being closer to the 4.5 healthy months, or the 1.5 post HR Derby, sore shoulder months?

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2 hours ago, DropkickAlex said:

The 30.7% K rate is what makes him fall out of the first round.

 

Kris Bryant had a 30.6% K rate his rookie season. 

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14 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

Kris Bryant had a 30.6% K rate his rookie season. 

True, and that kept his average in the .270's. He dropped it and it went up. I don't know if Judge can make the adjustments, their the same age (give 3 months). The big factor that boosts Judge is where he plays. 

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11 hours ago, DropkickAlex said:

Do you expect him to significantly drop his K rate?

 

Actually yes, I expect a rookie to show development as he gets more experience.

 

But even if he doesn't lower it, I think the slump was the bigger anomaly this season and without it, he would have batted well over .300 with the same K rate.  So yes, due to his exit velocity driven BABIP, I think he is capable of batting .300 with a 30% K rate. 

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