Aaron Judge 2017 Outlook

[zstlj 309]

 

On 9/30/2017 at 8:35 PM, absknicks said:

He should be a first rounder in all leagues next year. 

If you like using your first pick on riskier young unproven guys then yes. If I'm drafting in the top 10 any league I not even really considering him probably. Even if I do think he could live up to that pick there are probably much safer bets. 

[DropkickAlex 250]

7 hours ago, TopChuckie said:

 

Actually yes, I expect a rookie to show development as he gets more experience.

 

But even if he doesn't lower it, I think the slump was the bigger anomaly this season and without it, he would have batted well over .300 with the same K rate.  So yes, due to his exit velocity driven BABIP, I think he is capable of batting .300 with a 30% K rate. 

 

If he improves his K-Rate then he might be able to improve his BA however if he doesn't you're expecting someone to be a complete statistic anomaly. We shall see though, it will be interesting to come back to next season.

[WahooManiac 1,964]

4 minutes ago, DropkickAlex said:

 

If he improves his K-Rate then he might be able to improve his BA however if he doesn't you're expecting someone to be a complete statistic anomaly. We shall see though, it will be interesting to come back to next season.

Thing is, he IS a complete anomaly in exit velo. He can stretch the limits of BABIP like no one else. 

[DropkickAlex 250]

11 minutes ago, WahooManiac said:

Thing is, he IS a complete anomaly in exit velo. He can stretch the limits of BABIP like no one else. 

 

He is. Yankee Stadium has helped boost his average like no other. I just wouldn't bet on it happening again to warrant a .300 average. He's a great player, but like someone else said in a 10 team league there are some safer bets.

[wideopen21 1,914]

1 hour ago, DropkickAlex said:

 

He is. Yankee Stadium has helped boost his average like no other. I just wouldn't bet on it happening again to warrant a .300 average. He's a great player, but like someone else said in a 10 team league there are some safer bets.

 

Very possible, but he was a rookie (although he is older than Bryce Harper) so it's conceivable that he has room to grow as a hitter as he matures. I wouldn't count on him being a consistent .300 hitter, but he showed signs of being a .300 hitter this season if you take away that awful slump after the all star break. 

 

And  Yankee stadium does help him because it allows him to hit HRs to all fields, but there are plenty of ballparks that would be just advantageous 

[BlueJaysIn2030 1,977]

8 hours ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Very possible, but he was a rookie (although he is older than Bryce Harper) so it's conceivable that he has room to grow as a hitter as he matures. I wouldn't count on him being a consistent .300 hitter, but he showed signs of being a .300 hitter this season if you take away that awful slump after the all star break. 

 

And  Yankee stadium does help him because it allows him to hit HRs to all fields, but there are plenty of ballparks that would be just advantageous 

He'll settle into that .275+BA area, which is great. He's Stanton, just younger.

 

Yankees will be crazy when it's Harper, Machado, Sanchez and Judge hitting.

[rich22 610]

12 hours ago, DropkickAlex said:

 

He is. Yankee Stadium has helped boost his average like no other. I just wouldn't bet on it happening again to warrant a .300 average. He's a great player, but like someone else said in a 10 team league there are some safer bets.

 

 

How so?  

[rich22 610]

2 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

He'll settle into that .275+BA area, which is great. He's Stanton, just younger.

 

Yankees will be crazy when it's Harper, Machado, Sanchez and Judge hitting.

 

 

Maybe 1, definitely not both.  Assuming you mean 2019, you can sub Torres in for Machado.  Plus add in Clint Frazier

[DropkickAlex 250]

2 minutes ago, rich22 said:

 

 

How so?  

Home: .312/.440/.725

Away: .256/.404/.531

 

Yankee Stadium plays very well to his strengths. Now most players have better offensive stats in their home ballparks but Yankee Stadium is a little league field. As long as he's a Yankee the stadium is going to play well for his stats.

[rich22 610]

Just now, DropkickAlex said:

Home: .312/.440/.725

Away: .256/.404/.531

 

Yankee Stadium plays very well to his strengths. Now most players have better offensive stats in their home ballparks but Yankee Stadium is a little league field. As long as he's a Yankee the stadium is going to play well for his stats.

 

 

"like no other".    Fenway, Coors, Cincy, Arizona are just a few I think he would thrive in, even more than Yankee Stadium

[rich22 610]

in 2017.  Yankee Stadium was 14th in runs scored.

[DropkickAlex 250]

1 minute ago, rich22 said:

 

 

"like no other".    Fenway, Coors, Cincy, Arizona are just a few I think he would thrive in, even more than Yankee Stadium

I thought Fenway might but oddly no.

 

Fenway: (36 Abs) .083/.233/.167

Great American (3 Abs) .333/.500/.333

 

No games at Chase or Coors and obviously those are SSS but Yankees Stadium is short wall and distance helps him greatly. 81 games at Yankee Stadium for someone with his power is awesome.

[rich22 610]

3 minutes ago, DropkickAlex said:

I thought Fenway might but oddly no.

 

Fenway: (36 Abs) .083/.233/.167

Great American (3 Abs) .333/.500/.333

 

No games at Chase or Coors and obviously those are SSS but Yankees Stadium is short wall and distance helps him greatly. 81 games at Yankee Stadium for someone with his power is awesome.

 

 

You are correct.    He tore apart Camden though.  He loved that O's pitching

[BlueJaysIn2030 1,977]

11 minutes ago, rich22 said:

 

 

Maybe 1, definitely not both.  Assuming you mean 2019, you can sub Torres in for Machado.  Plus add in Clint Frazier

Why not both? This is the Yanks. 

[DropkickAlex 250]

Just now, rich22 said:

 

 

You are correct.    He tore apart Camden though.  He loved that O's pitching

Agreed, the O's seem to go with the approach of just trying to out slug hitters. Can't remember the last time the Orioles had a pitcher that was top notch. (Probably missing someone obvious)

[rich22 610]

Just now, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Why not both? This is the Yanks. 

 

 

Yeah, George is dead.  Haven't you heard?

[rich22 610]

1 minute ago, DropkickAlex said:

Agreed, the O's seem to go with the approach of just trying to out slug hitters. Can't remember the last time the Orioles had a pitcher that was top notch. (Probably missing someone obvious)

 

 

Mussina?   lol

[DropkickAlex 250]

Just now, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Why not both? This is the Yanks. 

That's a lot of money and the Cubs have a TV deal that kicks in now. They are going to have loads of money as well as the Dodgers.

[Low and Away 1,560]

 Palmer, McNally, and Cuellar. Can't remember the 4th for the 4th starter to win 20 that year.

[rich22 610]

1 minute ago, Low and Away said:

 Palmer, McNally, and Cuellar. Can't remember the 4th for the 4th starter to win 20 that year.

 

 

Pat Dobson

[XxxOilOverloadxxX 1,956]

1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Why not both? This is the Yanks. 

Yanks aren't committing 800 million to two guys with Judge and Sanchez still needing to get theirs down the line. It would be fiscally impossible.

[TopChuckie 166]

14 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Yanks aren't committing 800 million to two guys with Judge and Sanchez still needing to get theirs down the line. It would be fiscally impossible.

 

Agreed. When the time comes, I suspect Hal is hoping they don't need either one with Judge, Frazier, Florial/Gardner/Hicks in the OF, and Torres or Andujar at 3B.  Not saying Harper and Machado wouldn't still be upgrades, but they very well might not be big enough upgrades to justify the added costs.

Edited October 5, 2017 by TopChuckie

[zstlj 309]

800 million dollars is a joke for 2 guys

[Low and Away 1,560]

Stanton was a joke for 325m two years ago is in the same vein. Kershaw & Greinke for 200m also comes to mind. For some teams money isn't the object. The Stanton contract will hurt the Marlins whether they trade him or not. Traded they will be paying a good chunk of the money owed for years to come. They don't trade and the full contract hurts the club with new ownership needing to start paying down debt associated with buying the club.

[DropkickAlex 250]

What's funny and I know people will dismiss this but if you're going by WAR per million, Stanton is actually out playing his contract.