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Mike Foltynewicz 2017 Outlook

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1 minute ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

 

lol quick turn of events. But don't you want to watch more Braves games!? ;)

 

Game didn't even end up being on in my area. I've got Tigers, Sox.  So, I get to be frustrated with the Tigers not hanging more than a run on Wright.

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It wasn't pretty but it isn't as bad as the line suggests... he got ahead in the count often but he also struggled with closing out the hitter.  Some of that was because he wasn't getting calls and some of it was because he missed locating the slider.  He dialed up to 97 MPH a few times, but lived right around 95 MPH.  It also looked like his emotions got the better of him on the mound, a couple of times he kind of threw his hands up in frustration which didn't really help matters.

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Nothing new with this guy.  

He can get the occasional breaking ball over the plate, but not often enough.

 

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Terrible first start and now he's being used out of the bullpen, although apparently still scheduled to start next Tuesday.  Anyone still holding or are we done with this guy?  I had real high hopes he would turn into my SP3 or 4 but at this point it's looking bleak.

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1 hour ago, JJ1223 said:

Terrible first start and now he's being used out of the bullpen, although apparently still scheduled to start next Tuesday.  Anyone still holding or are we done with this guy?  I had real high hopes he would turn into my SP3 or 4 but at this point it's looking bleak.

I think he's a safe drop in anything 14 team and under. 

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Yeah I'm swapping him out for Ryu.  Will be monitoring closely, though, as I still think he can be serviceable fantasy pitcher.

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Well there's the Folty we all wanted to see. Once everyone dropped him

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He was one of my main sleepers so I have been patient, but let's hope we get more of this

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That's 2 good starts in a row. We all know about his FB, but his slider was looking very good today.

 

 

Overall, he had a good ST, just bad opening day start, but the 2 starts since have been good. If he was on your sleeper list start of the season, there is no reason he shouldn't still be there now.

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2 hours ago, terminator10 said:

That's 2 good starts in a row. We all know about his FB, but his slider was looking very good today.

 

 

Overall, he had a good ST, just bad opening day start, but the 2 starts since have been good. If he was on your sleeper list start of the season, there is no reason he shouldn't still be there now.

Was at today's game. His change and slider kept fooling my Phillies all day. Was in control all game. Gets @Mil next time out. Will be a test.

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29 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

It's either gonna be 10 k + v Mil or 7 er +

Wouldn't be surprised if it was both

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5 minutes ago, borindia said:

Is this guy any good?

 

hard to say, but that bender he struck out Braun with in the 1st inning was jaw-dropping.

deceptively high ceiling here, me thinks. 

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I've always been big on Folty, watched his start today to see how he does on the road against a powerful lineup. All in all, it was a tale of two halves. Watch his first three innings, you see an ace-potential starter. Pinpoint command on each corner with his fastball between 94 and 97. Thew his slider for strikes and good location. Missed a few spots with it, but all in all looked great. 6 k's in 3 innings and his pitch count was in the 30s. After the 3rd, however, he looked like a different pitcher. Hitters were sitting fastball, and his command was really lacking. The first homer to Santana was a piped belt-high fastball. I really thought he should've gone a 2-seamer in, but missed the low and away spot and Santana absolutely crushed it. The next Santana homer got a bit screwed over by a pretty bad Swanson error with two outs. It actually wasn't a terrible pitch; it was a down and away slider that Folty left a little elevated and Santana took it for an oppo homer. Really a pretty promising start against a very good offense. I'd like to see better command later in games though.

 

Looking at his splits, this year his first time in the order he's got an ERA under 2 and wOBA is well above average. 2nd time through the order, he's about league average. 3rd time through the order, however, is where the problem lies. Last year, held an ERA over 7 and a wOBA above league average. Not doing too much better this year with an ERA over 6. Last year, his K/BB ratio didn't really get too much worse through the 2nd and 3rd times through the order, but he gives up more line drives and harder hits 2nd and 3rd times through the order (all stats from Fangraphs).

 

All in all, Folty has the stuff to be a very good pitcher. Plus heater (both 4 and 2 seam), plus breaking pitch, and an adequate (albeit not very good) change. His struggles come when his command begins to falter later in games. If he's able to refine his command just a little bit, I think he has the upside to be a #2/#3 in a strong rotation, or a low-level #1 in a weak rotation.

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Some interesting nuggets from an article I just read on the can:

 

In two-strike counts, Foltynewicz came with a 40 percent whiff/strike rate with his curveball, the highest of any of his pitches. Yet, he didn't throw it to register any of his six strikeouts, instead leaning on his slider (23 percent coming in) and a curve that hadn't resulted in a single K in '17. He got three via both those pitches on Sunday.

Three unearned runs cost him, and he's still waiting on his first win of the season (archaic stats being what they are) but consider this: in these last three outings against the Nationals, Phillies and Brewers, Foltynewicz has amassed these staggering numbers: a 1.80 ERA, 0.9500 WHIP and 1.050 FIP.

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Still really like this guy...if he puts it together he could seriously be a #2/3 SP on most teams and lead you to a title or he can be inconsistent and drive you nuts lol....I love the upside so Im in!  

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Folty keeps sucking me in with a good outing here or there, but then always seems to inevitably dump on my ERA and WHIP with stinkers like this. Can't trust this guy. Yet.

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I watched this start and Folty had no command from the start of the first inning. He was wildly missing on his location. He had indicated as much in his post game interview:

 

“Just going out there first and second inning I knew I didn’t have my stuff today,” said Foltynewicz, who had two walks and four strikeouts. “So I knew I was going to have to battle all day pretty much. I couldn’t get (the ball) down. I just left all my pitches up.”

 

AJC.com

 

I'm hoping this game is an outlier, but he is back outside the circle of trust.

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Wow thanks for shredding my roto ratios in the first start with him,this guy was freaking trash last night. 

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