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Devonta Freeman 2017 Season Outlook


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Just now, ColoWrex said:

Do you know what time in the 4th that was?

 

5:23 remaining in the 4th. 

 

A shame really b/c if he had hauled that RZ target in he probably would have added a TD/recp and 12 rec yds to his line.  Good to see that he was being targeted. I bet if he hadn't gotten shaken up he would have been in the game on their last series too.

 

It could just be stinger/burner.  Really hoping it's nothing serious. 

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5 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Fantasy football is just random and stupid. Was drafting Mike Evans top 5 a big risk? What about Michael Thomas? Most of the time in fantasy football unexpected results simply can’t be explained. That’s what makes them unexpected, and that’s why as much as we like to pretend otherwise, we might as well all just autodraft because none of us have any idea wtf is going to happen over the course of a season. We make educated guesses and hope for the best, nothing more. Those who get lucky fancy themselves “good at fantasy football”, those who don’t were simply unlucky.

 

Why are you bringing reason into this?

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On 10/29/2017 at 4:27 PM, Lamont Sanford said:

Fantasy football is just random and stupid. Was drafting Mike Evans top 5 a big risk? What about Michael Thomas? Most of the time in fantasy football unexpected results simply can’t be explained. That’s what makes them unexpected, and that’s why as much as we like to pretend otherwise, we might as well all just autodraft because none of us have any idea wtf is going to happen over the course of a season. We make educated guesses and hope for the best, nothing more. Those who get lucky fancy themselves “good at fantasy football”, those who don’t were simply unlucky.

 

Every year people say this (mostly those who busted on early picks), but every year I see the same owners doing better in the the same leagues.    Over the course of a decade I’ve come to realize it’s not a coincidence.  

 

Luck is undoubtedly a part of FF just like it’s a part of life.   But the other part is just as important- attention to matchups/who to start and why, how to manage a roster- when to be patient on an underperforming stud vs stashing a prospect,  how to use your waiver picks/FAAB effectively, what to look for in prospect pickups, etc....  there’s a LOT that goes into being competitive year in and year out. 

Edited by Impreza178
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7 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Every year people say this (mostly those who busted on early picks), but every year I see the same owners doing better in the the same leagues.    Over the course of a decade I’ve come to realize it’s not a coincidence.  

 

Luck is undoubtedly a part of FF just like it’s a part of life.   But the other part is just as important- attention to matchups/who to start and why, how to manage a roster- when to be patient on an underperforming stud vs stashing a prospect,  how to use your waiver picks/FAAB effectively, what to look for in prospect pickups, etc....  there’s a LOT that goes into being competitive year in and year out. 

El oh el

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9 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Every year people say this (mostly those who busted on early picks), but every year I see the same owners doing better in the the same leagues.    Over the course of a decade I’ve come to realize it’s not a coincidence.  

 

Luck is undoubtedly a part of FF just like it’s a part of life.   But the other part is just as important- attention to matchups/who to start and why, how to manage a roster- when to be patient on an underperforming stud vs stashing a prospect,  how to use your waiver picks/FAAB effectively, what to look for in prospect pickups, etc....  there’s a LOT that goes into being competitive year in and year out. 

 

Obviously it’s not 100% luck and randomness. You can certainly increase your chances of success in various ways, but no amount of research, wise drafting, great trades, matchup knowledge, etc can completely overcome the randomness and luck factor. It’s a bit like having a lot of tickets in a raffle barrell. Your odds of winning are better, but whether or not you win has more to do with luck and a random draw.

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25 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Every year people say this (mostly those who busted on early picks), but every year I see the same owners doing better in the the same leagues.    Over the course of a decade I’ve come to realize it’s not a coincidence.  

 

Luck is undoubtedly a part of FF just like it’s a part of life.   But the other part is just as important- attention to matchups/who to start and why, how to manage a roster- when to be patient on an underperforming stud vs stashing a prospect,  how to use your waiver picks/FAAB effectively, what to look for in prospect pickups, etc....  there’s a LOT that goes into being competitive year in and year out. 

 

Luck is by far the most important thing about fantasy football. I don't give a crap how much you research, you aren't going to know that Will Fuller and Desuan Watson are going to be absolutely amazing lol. I literally claimed them both off waivers on the same day....

 

Research? Nah. You just gotta get lucky as s***. Why do you think most 'experts' have similar rankings in the pre season? Because their data and research show that these players should be ranked like this. And of course, the season starts and everything goes to hell because that research doesn't mean anything. 

 

What research said that Desuan Watson was going to be one of the best rookie QBs in history? He couldn't even win the starters job out of camp. 

 

So you really expect a sane person to believe that your research means squat when pro scouts and coaches barely know what the heck they are doing? Lol...ok

Edited by RicFlair
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11 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

 

Obviously it’s not 100% luck and randomness. You can certainly increase your chances of success in various ways, but no amount of research, wise drafting, great trades, matchup knowledge, etc can completely overcome the randomness and luck factor. It’s a bit like having a lot of tickets in a raffle barrell. Your odds of winning are better, but whether or not you win has more to do with luck and a random draw.

 

Nailed it. That's about the best comparison you can make. 

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

Every year people say this (mostly those who busted on early picks), but every year I see the same owners doing better in the the same leagues.    Over the course of a decade I’ve come to realize it’s not a coincidence.  

 

I personally love having opponents who claim it's all luck or complaining about bad luck, whether in fantasy football, in poker, in chess or whatever game. It just shows they don't understand it and are not willing to put the effort into it, which is fine by me.

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16 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

I personally love having opponents who claim it's all luck or complaining about bad luck, whether in fantasy football, in poker, in chess or whatever game. It just shows they don't understand it and are not willing to put the effort into it, which is fine by me.

 

Just like in poker, you can still make the right call and get hit by a one outer. How the players perform is outside of your control and that limits the “skill” factor. Is skill the reason my team has the most points scored against it by a huge margin? No, that is just dumb luck, as my team has nothing to do with that directly at all

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13 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

Just like in poker, you can still make the right call and get hit by a one outer.

Exactly my point, and if you keep making the right calls, you will generally come out on top and still have to deal with bad beats. 

 

And just like in chess, fantasy football gives you a lot of opportunity to analyse your calls and behavior and learn from each defeat. I'm happy to say I've learned quite a bit this season ;)

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35 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

I personally love having opponents who claim it's all luck or complaining about bad luck, whether in fantasy football, in poker, in chess or whatever game. It just shows they don't understand it and are not willing to put the effort into it, which is fine by me.

 

There’s really no luck involved in chess, is there? That’s beside the point, which is that your opponent acknowledging the luck factor in poker, fantasy football or anything else doesn’t automatically mean they understand the game less or put in less effort than you. That’s a very naive line of thinking.

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7 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

 

There’s really no luck involved in chess, is there? That’s beside the point, which is that your opponent acknowledging the luck factor in poker, fantasy football or anything else doesn’t automatically mean they understand the game less or put in less effort than you. That’s a very naive line of thinking.

 

No, it was very much my point. Complaining about luck is like peeing your pants: it may feel warm and comfy for a bit but in the end you just look silly.

Edited by Boudewijn
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6 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

No, it was very much my point. Complaining about luck is like peeing your pants: it may feel warm and comfy for a bit but in the end you just look silly.

 

You still have to acknowledge it exists, because it very much does

 

edit: also the poker comparison doesn’t hold water for a variety of reasons. Poker odds for any given hand never change. Odds of how a player performs on Sunday can change week to week, year to year, and there is untold amounts of variance in play with regard to injuries, opponents, weather, etc

Edited by lolcopter
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1 hour ago, RicFlair said:

 

Luck is by far the most important thing about fantasy football. I don't give a crap how much you research, you aren't going to know that Will Fuller and Desuan Watson are going to be absolutely amazing lol. I literally claimed them both off waivers on the same day....

 

Research? Nah. You just gotta get lucky as s***. Why do you think most 'experts' have similar rankings in the pre season? Because their data and research show that these players should be ranked like this. And of course, the season starts and everything goes to hell because that research doesn't mean anything. 

 

What research said that Desuan Watson was going to be one of the best rookie QBs in history? He couldn't even win the starters job out of camp. 

 

So you really expect a sane person to believe that your research means squat when pro scouts and coaches barely know what the heck they are doing? Lol...ok

Wrong again Nature Boy

WOOOOOO!!!!!!

 

just because it’s possible to stumble a** backwards into success doesn’t mean there’s no skill or strategies to maximize your chances.       Just like it’s possible to make every wrong call in blackjack and still win it big.  With enough sample size, better informed more skilled players will rise to the top.   Wtf was Fuller doing on your waiver wire anyway?   He wasn’t available in any of my leagues from 10 teams on up.   

 

As far as freeman goes-  he’ll be fine and it’s too early to claim he’s a bust.  

Edited by Impreza178
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6 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Yea I am not calling a bust but we are getting down to the wire, he really needs a nice game and soon 

What’s he getting-  55-60% touch rate?   Heavily involved in both facets of offense.  The bigger game are coming,  we’ve seen most backs go through mini droughts like this.     Patience and don’t sell low.  

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