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Devonta Freeman 2017 Season Outlook


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1 hour ago, theSPANKER said:

You must play in standard leagues only then.  

 

I play very much in PPR. 

 

At Freeman current ADP you are drafting him at his absolute ceiling. Everything has to break right for him to repeat last year's numbers. On top of which he's changing systems, that's already 1 strike against him for me. 

 

When D Will and Jstew were at the top of their games this right here was basically their ceilings. They never had ability to put up DJ or Zeke type numbers simply because they were handcuffed by their partners in the back field. For them to put up elite RB1 stats everything needed to break right, and more often than not, it didn't. 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014. 

 

I am a Freeman fan, he was a huge part in my 2015 title run. I just don't like drafting him at his ceiling and crossing my fingers hoping that everything breaks right. If you believe he can replicate or exceed last year's numbers, then do you, we all think differently and that's fine. He's just being valued about 10-12 picks higher than I'm willing to take a chance at for my taste. 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

I play very much in PPR. 

 

At Freeman current ADP you are drafting him at his absolute ceiling. Everything has to break right for him to repeat last year's numbers. On top of which he's changing systems, that's already 1 strike against him for me. 

 

When D Will and Jstew were at the top of their games this right here was basically their ceilings. They never had ability to put up DJ or Zeke type numbers simply because they were handcuffed by their partners in the back field. For them to put up elite RB1 stats everything needed to break right, and more often than not, it didn't. 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014. 

 

I am a Freeman fan, he was a huge part in my 2015 title run. I just don't like drafting him at his ceiling and crossing my fingers hoping that everything breaks right. If you believe he can replicate or exceed last year's numbers, then do you, we all think differently and that's fine. He's just being valued about 10-12 picks higher than I'm willing to take a chance at for my taste. 

 

 

After the big 3 RBs/3WRs and McCoy then who do you like?

I'm not a Howard or Ajayi fan at their respective ADPs.  

Everyone after those guys has questions of whether or not they will justify the investment cost.

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9 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

After the big 3 RBs/3WRs and McCoy then who do you like?

I'm not a Howard or Ajayi fan at their respective ADPs.  

Everyone after those guys has questions of whether or not they will justify the investment cost.

 

I like Freeman 4th after the big 3 RB's. 

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Most first round picks don't return fulll "value."  That is just the realiry of being at the head of the price sheet.  My goal is fo simply not lose my shirt.  If I challenge for a league title, it will probably be because one or more of my middle or late round picks blows up.

 

Freeman seems the safest high priced RB after the big 3.  That's good enough for me (if I don't take a WR instead).

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4 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Most first round picks don't return fulll "value."  That is just the realiry of being at the head of the price sheet.  My goal is fo simply not lose my shirt.  If I challenge for a league title, it will probably be because one or more of my middle or late round picks blows up.

 

Freeman seems the safest high priced RB after the big 3.  That's good enough for me (if I don't take a WR instead).

Safer than McCoy?

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7 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Everything has to break right for him to repeat last year's numbers

 

Not really.

 

The Falcons were just super efficient at scoring last year, specifically passing TDs.  They were 26th in plays per game last year, 62.  Matt Ryan had 38 TD passes (he had 21 the year before).

 

The Falcons had 421 rushing attempts last year.  Freeman had only 54% of those, 227 total, only 14.5 per game.  The total volume and Freeman's share cannot get any lower.  I'd guess that his share gets higher as Coleman was Shanahan's baby... but that's just a guess.  Even if rushing volume and Freeman's share stays the same (and every new play is a pass), you're looking at another 1,000 yard rushing season.  Coleman will certainly get his touches but a) he's not taking over the starting job, and b.) the Falcons aren't running less plays than last year.

 

He should still get 230 carries, 50 rec, and 10-14 TDs as the #1 RB in a potent offense.  TDs might come down as the whole offense scores less.  But then again volume might go up as the whole offense runs more plays. 

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9 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Not really.

 

The Falcons were just super efficient at scoring last year, specifically passing TDs.  They were 26th in plays per game last year, 62.  Matt Ryan had 38 TD passes (he had 21 the year before).

 

The Falcons had 421 rushing attempts last year.  Freeman had only 54% of those, 227 total, only 14.5 per game.  The total volume and Freeman's share cannot get any lower.  I'd guess that his share gets higher as Coleman was Shanahan's baby... but that's just a guess.  Even if rushing volume and Freeman's share stays the same (and every new play is a pass), you're looking at another 1,000 yard rushing season.  Coleman will certainly get his touches but a) he's not taking over the starting job, and b.) the Falcons aren't running less plays than last year.

 

He should still get 230 carries, 50 rec, and 10-14 TDs as the #1 RB in a potent offense.  TDs might come down as the whole offense scores less.  But then again volume might go up as the whole offense runs more plays. 

 

Good analysis.I don't remember everything breaking right for Freeman last season.   He was just really productive with the opportunities he had.  Could have way bigger with a better share or more running plays.  

 

A number of ways to see his overall numbers increase.   I have them like this in PPR: 

 

Mccoy

Gordon

Freeman

AjayI

Howard

Murray

Edited by Impreza178
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7 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

After the big 3 RBs/3WRs and McCoy then who do you like?

I'm not a Howard or Ajayi fan at their respective ADPs.  

Everyone after those guys has questions of whether or not they will justify the investment cost.

 

You raise a good point, outside of your usual "locks" many players come with great uncertainty.  

 

I know not everyone's situation is the same, but I only draft in live drafts and if I don't like the players available at my pick, I always trade down.  I'm never locked into my draft picks.  

 

If I had to stay put though I'd definitely prefer AJ Green, Michael Thomas, or Jay Ajayi.  Jay Ajayi scares me a bit cause I believe Kenyan Drake is real, although many on this forum disagree.  I just remember the last guy I saw explode on to the scene with 200 yard rushing games was Demarco Murray, he had a million question marks and many doubted him and said he was a fluke, then he kept getting more and more awesome (when healthy).  I believe Ajayi is real, I don't think you can fake what he did last year.  The concussion does scare me though.  I think we will all get a lot of answers in the coming weeks and feel more comfortable with some of the uncertainty.  

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Good analysis.I don't remember everything breaking right for Freeman last season.   He was just really productive with the opportunities he had.  Could have way bigger with a better share or more running plays.  

 

A number of ways to see his overall numbers increase.   I have them like this in PPR: 

 

Mccoy

Gordon

Freeman

AjayI

Howard

Murray

 

Maybe it's just me but I could never see myself talking Gordon over Freeman in any league type.

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I'll definitely be watching the preseason games to see how much they've kept of Shanahan's offense.  If they keep a good amount of it, I like Freeman to repeat or improve upon what he did last year.  If Sark is implementing more of his offense, I'm a little more cautious with my expectations for him.  

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2 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

Maybe it's just me but I could never see myself talking Gordon over Freeman in any league type.

 

Upside versus safety.  I know smart people who would never take Freeman over Gordon in any league type.  I think it's just a matter of preference personally.

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3 minutes ago, JHM_13 said:

I'll definitely be watching the preseason games to see how much they've kept of Shanahan's offense.

 

They can keep the same playbook, but it will still hurt to lose the guy who's calling the right plays at the right time.  Can't replace that.

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10 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Not really.

 

The Falcons were just super efficient at scoring last year, specifically passing TDs.  They were 26th in plays per game last year, 62.  Matt Ryan had 38 TD passes (he had 21 the year before).

 

The Falcons had 421 rushing attempts last year.  Freeman had only 54% of those, 227 total, only 14.5 per game.  The total volume and Freeman's share cannot get any lower.  I'd guess that his share gets higher as Coleman was Shanahan's baby... but that's just a guess.  Even if rushing volume and Freeman's share stays the same (and every new play is a pass), you're looking at another 1,000 yard rushing season.  Coleman will certainly get his touches but a) he's not taking over the starting job, and b.) the Falcons aren't running less plays than last year.

 

He should still get 230 carries, 50 rec, and 10-14 TDs as the #1 RB in a potent offense.  TDs might come down as the whole offense scores less.  But then again volume might go up as the whole offense runs more plays. 

 

It can definitely get lower IMO, and I think that's where we disagree.  That's fine though, we all think differently.  I just can't get behind analysis where a guy that generally barely cracks 1000 yards is going to a less efficient offense in the same time share and is a lock for 1000 yards again.

 

If you're less efficient that doesn't just mean you score 10 less total TDs across the team and it ends there.

 

It could mean that instead of 4.8 YPC you get 4.1.  Instead of being in a 3rd and short where the RB is a real option you are now in 3rd and longs and are pressing Julio in double coverage like the Matt Ryan I knew for many years before 2016.  

 

Anything can happen, this offense might be better than last year, it's not a lock the offense will be less efficient or worse, just color me a skeptic.  And if I'm too skeptical of a guy I have to burn a top 10 pick on, I'm looking in other directions.

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Just now, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

What makes you believe that Steve Sarkisian - Alabama is going to continue to run the same Shanahan offense?

Doesn't that potentially bode well for the primary back?   

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3 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

What makes you believe that Steve Sarkisian - Alabama is going to continue to run the same Shanahan offense?

 

I'm sure Shanahan didn't leave a copy of his playbook on the HC's desk before he flew to San Fran...

 

But I'm also sure the CS is intimately familiar with Shanny's scheme, general play design, etc.  It's probably not going to be a brand new offense that they install.

 

My point was that even if we assume Sark DOES have the exact same playbook, the ability to pick the right plays at the right time is the hard part, and we know Shanny was great at it and we know basically nothing about how good Sark is.  So, probably a downgrade in playcalling.

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7 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

What makes you believe that Steve Sarkisian - Alabama is going to continue to run the same Shanahan offense?

 

Supposedly they brought him in to run the Falcons (Shanahan's) offense and not to implement his own.  I still don't necessarily think there won't be any changes at all, but as long as they keep the zone blocking scheme, Freeman should be fine.  

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32 minutes ago, Bendr said:

Well Freeman is now the highest paid RB in the league. I hope that means a slight uptick for his workload share at the very least.

 

I agree, I think that's definitely a pretty telling sign for his usage this year and going forward. A 65/35 split between Freeman and Coleman would be beautiful 

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3 hours ago, ponchsox said:

Safer than McCoy?

 

I love McCoy (he was my horse last season).  After watching his every move in 2016 though, I have this irrational belief that he won't be as durable this season as he managed to be last season.  Even during the week, there always seemed to be reports of minor injuries and the like that "limited" him, but he managed to not miss too many snaps.  

 

Please reprimand me if you're convinced that Shady is no more likely to miss time in 2017 than Freeman or Gordon.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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For what its worth, FF Toolbox's strength of schedule rates Atlanta's schedule as: #6 best for QBs; #24 best for RBs; #8 best for WRs.


However, the play the Aint's D twice in the fantasy playoffs one of which is championship week with Tampa in the middle.

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I think everyone is looking too far into Shanny leaving. Look guys, it's still a top ten offense. Will they be the highest scoring team in the league again? Probably not. Will they be top ten possibly top five? Of course they will. Freeman is a stud RB in a top ten offense. In my position, eighth pick in a standard ten team, I'm taking Freeman all day and getting my WR1 on the come around. This guy is as automated as as they come and you wanna know the best part? He has a clear handcuff! If Freeman were to go down Coleman would shoulder the load. Idk why people are freaking out. I mean, I do, but it just doesn't seem very logical. I get Shanny is a great OC, hands down one of the best in the league, but you have Matt Ryan, Julio, and Freeman as your big three with a top five offensive line that plays in the NFC south! I'm buying every bit I can in that 8-10 range. 

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I think of drafting Freeman like going to a restaurant that you've been going to for a long time. You usually get the bacon burger because it's very good. Then one day you go in, and bam, they have a shiny new menu with all of this new food that looks phenomenal. You could get the old reliable burger cause you know you like it, or you could take a shot on one of the new meals. The new meals could blow that burger out of the water, or they could be terrible and give you food poisoning while you sit there and think about what life could've been like if you picked the burger. What do you do?!

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