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Devonta Freeman 2017 Season Outlook


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16 minutes ago, buckeyestilidie said:

I think everyone is looking too far into Shanny leaving. Look guys, it's still a top ten offense. Will they be the highest scoring team in the league again? Probably not. Will they be top ten possibly top five? Of course they will. Freeman is a stud RB in a top ten offense. In my position, eighth pick in a standard ten team, I'm taking Freeman all day and getting my WR1 on the come around. This guy is as automated as as they come and you wanna know the best part? He has a clear handcuff! If Freeman were to go down Coleman would shoulder the load. Idk why people are freaking out. I mean, I do, but it just doesn't seem very logical. I get Shanny is a great OC, hands down one of the best in the league, but you have Matt Ryan, Julio, and Freeman as your big three with a top five offensive line that plays in the NFC south! I'm buying every bit I can in that 8-10 range. 

 

So you're saying you don't believe that offensive schemes matter as long as you have talent at key positions?

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23 minutes ago, dave.zavala89 said:

Would you guys consider Freeman over Melvin Gordon after Mccoy is off the board in PPR?

 

I prefer Gordon for the lack of talent/workload threats behind him. He's no slouch as a receiver and I think he's a much more talented RB than most "3.9 ypc" shouters care to admit. Any improvement in offensive line play and positive contributions from RB-friendly new head coach Anthony Lynn could mean a nice uptick for Gordon. He might be in for a little TD regression but I like his outlook.

 

Tough to call without being sure of the Falcons workload split. If workload splits stay the same, I think last year was Freeman's ceiling with lots of TDs and Coleman missing 3 games. I think Gordon can be better.

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1 hour ago, JHM_13 said:

 

So you're saying you don't believe that offensive schemes matter as long as you have talent at key positions?

Not necessarily. I think that's a lazy assessment of what I wrote. I was saying that I think the fact people think Freeman,  and the Falcons offense as a whole, will somehow drop off a cliff or have a "superbowl hangover" is kinda farfetched just because of an offensive coordinator. You think an offensive scheme change can make the best offense of 2016 somehow an average offense in 2017? I think no. I'm a huge believer of keeping things simple. Analyzing a coordinator change to the degree it is sounds ludicrous to me. 

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Gotta have McCoy, Gordon, and Freeman in a tier together.  I would hear arguments for including Murray, Howard, and Ajayi in this tier, but after the big 3, I think it's a pretty cut and dry that these should be the next 3 RBs off the board, in some order.

 

Of this tier, Freeman has to be the safest.  He's the only RB in the NFL to rush for over 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons.  You can assume he'll regress thanks to Shanahan leaving, and be right, but he can regress without busting.  He's still the lowest risk of busting out of any of these 3.  That counts for a lot, right now.

 

McCoy is 29, and was (relatively) healthy all of last year.  I worry, is Shady due to join the Lynches, Petersons, Charleses and Fortes of the world?  Was last year the last gasp of his greatness?

 

Gordon has never broke 1,000 yards or 4 YPC.  It looks right, smells right, feels right to take him as the 4th RB off the board...  But so did Gurley last year after his breakout season.  Maybe it's the dreadlocks, or the Los Angeles air, it's just that something doesn't smell right.  He has to be considered the riskiest of the 3, at least, due to the length of his track record.

 

Take Freeman if you're conservative, take Gordon if you want upside, and take McCoy if you want a nice blend of both.  I'm taking McCoy, personally (and then Jon Williams late).

Edited by Lord_Varys
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10 minutes ago, buckeyestilidie said:

Not necessarily. I think that's a lazy assessment of what I wrote. I was saying that I think the fact people think Freeman,  and the Falcons offense as a whole, will somehow drop off a cliff or have a "superbowl hangover" is kinda farfetched just because of an offensive coordinator. You think an offensive scheme change can make the best offense of 2016 somehow an average offense in 2017? I think no. I'm a huge believer of keeping things simple. Analyzing a coordinator change to the degree it is sounds ludicrous to me. 

 

Maybe that was an oversimplification of what you were saying.  And it's possible I missed where people were saying that without Shanahan this offense would fall apart completely.  But anyone denying that changes to the playbook and playcaller could have a negative impact on the offensive output isn't looking at the whole picture. From what I've read, Sarkisian was brought in to keep the playbook mostly in tact.  If that's the case, I'm confident Freeman could have another good year.  If Sarkisian implements some of the power run scheme, that's going to hurt Freeman.  If he calls more plays running out of the shotgun, that's going to hurt Freeman.  Until I see more in the preseason, it's tough for me to lock him into a top-5 RB outlook for the season.  It's the combination of playbook, play calls, and talent that led them to one of the best offensive years ever.  You're eliminating 1 of those things immediately, with another potentially being influenced. At least the talent remains, hopefully it's still the right fit if there's a new playbook.

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29 minutes ago, buckeyestilidie said:

I was saying that I think the fact people think Freeman,  and the Falcons offense as a whole, will somehow drop off a cliff or have a "superbowl hangover" is kinda farfetched just because of an offensive coordinator

 

The QB coach left, too.  Matt Ryan is going to be coaching the coaches, this year.  Not a recipe for success.

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11 hours ago, dave.zavala89 said:

Would you guys consider Freeman over Melvin Gordon after Mccoy is off the board in PPR?

Personally I would take Freeman before McCoy.  It's not the popular opinion, but personally wouldn't think twice if I was drafting right now.

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12 hours ago, dave.zavala89 said:

Would you guys consider Freeman over Melvin Gordon after Mccoy is off the board in PPR?

 

Freeman. Shouldn't be a contest.

 

Personally, I would never roster a below average YPC rusher in the 1st round. And Freeman is a way better catcher to boot.

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21 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

Gotta have McCoy, Gordon, and Freeman in a tier together.  I would hear arguments for including Murray, Howard, and Ajayi in this tier, but after the big 3, I think it's a pretty cut and dry that these should be the next 3 RBs off the board, in some order.

 

Of this tier, Freeman has to be the safest.  He's the only RB in the NFL to rush for over 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons.  You can assume he'll regress thanks to Shanahan leaving, and be right, but he can regress without busting.  He's still the lowest risk of busting out of any of these 3.  That counts for a lot, right now.

 

McCoy is 29, and was (relatively) healthy all of last year.  I worry, is Shady due to join the Lynches, Petersons, Charleses and Fortes of the world?  Was last year the last gasp of his greatness?

 

Gordon has never broke 1,000 yards or 4 YPC.  It looks right, smells right, feels right to take him as the 4th RB off the board...  But so did Gurley last year after his breakout season.  Maybe it's the dreadlocks, or the Los Angeles air, it's just that something doesn't smell right.  He has to be considered the riskiest of the 3, at least, due to the length of his track record.

 

Take Freeman if you're conservative, take Gordon if you want upside, and take McCoy if you want a nice blend of both.  I'm taking McCoy, personally (and then Jon Williams late).

 

The good thing about guys like McCoy and Gordon is let's say they are ineffective, both with YPC's around 4.0. They are both still going to be locked in to a high carry, pass catching, most of goal line role. If Freeman/Murray started sucking, they have very talented back-ups who could usurp work. I don't see any reason that McCoy/Gordon/Freeman/Murray can't all top 1300 total yards, 50 receptions, 10 td's. It's really close to me, so I'm using the lack of a good back-up for McCoy/MG3 as the tie-breakers. Also, since J.Will/Oliver aren't hyped like Coleman/Henry, those that like handcuffing can grab them with a much later pick. 

 

As far as Howard/Ajayi, I don't put them in this tier. Not that they aren't good, but an RB on the Bears and an injury prone, inconsistent, non-pass catching RB on a Jay Cutler led team isn't too appealing. I'll put Howard at 8, but he's a step behind the tier 2 guys imo. 

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29 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

The good thing about guys like McCoy and Gordon is let's say they are ineffective, both with YPC's around 4.0. They are both still going to be locked in to a high carry, pass catching, most of goal line role. If Freeman/Murray started sucking, they have very talented back-ups who could usurp work.

 

Really fair point ... except I see no scenario where Freeman starts sucking.  Dude has been nothing but stellar for 2 straight years, and they paid him accordingly.

 

Freeman had only 53% of carries last year, 14.5 carries per game, and was still RB6.  I see no scenario where the volume gets lower, personally.

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13 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Really fair point ... except I see no scenario where Freeman starts sucking.  Dude has been nothing but stellar for 2 straight years, and they paid him accordingly.

 

Freeman had only 53% of carries last year, 14.5 carries per game, and was still RB6.  I see no scenario where the volume gets lower, personally.

 

 

I think his carries will go up.  Less shootouts for the offense with the improved D.  I'm thinking really hard about grabbing him at number 7

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On 8/9/2017 at 9:37 AM, Lord_Varys said:

Gordon has never broke 1,000 yards or 4 YPC.

I have a lot of respect for you brother but I'm tired of reading this crap. Never had 1,000 yards before? Okay, so he had 997. If he ran for three more yards last year would your opinion be any different? Never averaged 4YPC? He was at 3.9, so would .1 more make you think any differently? If he had exactly 1,000 yards last year and 4YPC would you see him as any less of a risk? I want to know who started this nonsense because everyone keeps saying the same damn thing and it is an argument that is absolutely meaningless. Why is it meaningless? Because if he had three more yards and averaged one GD'd tenth of a yard more it wouldn't, or shouldn't change a single thing about his outlook.

Edited by Ffguy0087
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4 hours ago, Ffguy0087 said:

I have a lot of respect for you brother but I'm tired of reading this crap. Never had 1,000 yards before? Okay, so he had 997. If he ran for three more yards last year would your opinion be any different? Never averaged 4YPC? He was at 3.9, so would .1 more make you think any differently? If he had exactly 1,000 yards last year and 4YPC would you see him as any less of a risk? I want to know who started this nonsense because everyone keeps saying the same damn thing and it is an argument that is absolutely meaningless. Why is it meaningless? Because if he had three more yards and averaged one GD'd tenth of a yard more it wouldn't, or shouldn't change a single thing about his outlook.

 

Not trying to turn this into the Gordon thread, but I agree that the "benchmarks" people quote are pretty silly.  It isn't like he is just coming off a 700 yard / 3.0 YPC season.

 

That being said I think the sentiment is still the same and I still feel nervous drafting him all the same.  He's a guy you're relying on as your RB1 and top pick, who has a very short track record, and one that is success based more off volume than elite talent (not saying he's not talented, but his PC numbers still don't jump off the page).  Despite the perceived lack of talent behind him, you're still relying a lot on a guy getting big time volume to return value at his ADP.  

 

Freeman, on the other hand, returned value last year even in spite of having a very diminished workload to what you'd expect from an RB1.  His floor is based on per-carry efficiency and good results when he does get the ball, so if his volume goes up then the sky is the limit.  Maybe the new coaching staff cripples this offense this year, or maybe it just puts enough of a kink into it that Freeman has to play deep into close games or catches lots of passes trying to play catch-up.  As long as the offense doesn't turn completely putrid I think a down-tick in offensive efficiency for this team could help Freeman gain the volume he needs.

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5 hours ago, Ffguy0087 said:

I have a lot of respect for you brother but I'm tired of reading this crap.

 

Heh, I love open and honest discussion.  Appreciate you too.  I know it's hard to understand sarcasm via text but I am being sincere when I say that.

 

I hear what you're saying .  If he had 4 more yards and 0.1 more YPC, it's not like a light bulb would be flipped in my head.

 

1,000 yards rushing on the season is just a general historical sign of a good year.  And even 4.0 is not very good.

 

But I'm implying something behind that 1,000 yard number; trying to illustrate the fact that though Gordon was an elite fantasy asset when he played, he has yet to put it together for 16 games.  

 

And I only bring these things up because we're talking about him in the context of other RBs who have done it before, multiple times, for 16 games.  Gordon is a no-doubt-first-rounder in my mind.  This is me just trying to split hairs.

 

Gordon was pretty volume dependent last year (not TD dependent, which I know I said earlier and wish I could take back).  He had 3rd most rushes per game, and I cant find receptions per game but he had to be up there.  Now, it's not bad to be volume dependent if you get a lot of volume, don't get me wrong, I love an RB that's getting 20 touches per game.  But... If a guy has never proven that he can last a full season with that kind of volume in his career (yet), does that count for something?  That's the context behind the numbers I pointed out.  Guy has never sustained the volume and the scoring for 16 games.  There's a risk to taking him so early because of that.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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Freeman had about 1 TD and 100 more yards than Gordon last year when he played essentially 4 more games than Gordon. There is little reason to expect a significant reduction in Gordon's usage this year. If we ignore injury risk, Gordon looks like he has more upside and a high enough floor with his volume that I'm grabbing him over Freeman in every league. Obviously it's safety vs. upside, but in my eyes Gordon is a relatively safe pick too, and I'm just a sucker for upside. 

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4 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Heh, I love open and honest discussion.  Appreciate you too.  I know it's hard to understand sarcasm via text but I am being sincere when I say that.

 

I hear what you're saying .  If he had 4 more yards and 0.1 more YPC, it's not like a light bulb would be flipped in my head.

 

1,000 yards rushing on the season is just a general historical sign of a good year.  And even 4.0 is not very good.

 

But I'm implying something behind that 1,000 yard number; trying to illustrate the fact that though Gordon was an elite fantasy asset when he played, he has yet to put it together for 16 games.  

 

And I only bring these things up because we're talking about him in the context of other RBs who have done it before, multiple times, for 16 games.  Gordon is a no-doubt-first-rounder in my mind.  This is me just trying to split hairs.

 

Gordon was pretty volume dependent last year (not TD dependent, which I know I said earlier and wish I could take back).  He had 3rd most rushes per game, and I cant find receptions per game but he had to be up there.  Now, it's not bad to be volume dependent if you get a lot of volume, don't get me wrong, I love an RB that's getting 20 touches per game.  But... If a guy has never proven that he can last a full season with that kind of volume in his career (yet), does that count for something?  That's the context behind the numbers I pointed out.  Guy has never sustained the volume and the scoring for 16 games.  There's a risk to taking him so early because of that.

Thanks for ignoring the rest of my drunken escapade haha. The whole 1,000 yards and 4 YPC combined with my alcohol infused evening just hit a nerve and I had to vent a little.

 

And side note - I was actually working on an edit saying that I think it's fair to call him a volume dependant runner based off his early career inefficiency, nobody could really argue that. If you're not going to crack a league average YPC rate you'll def need the volume to hang. But arbitrarily throwing those two numbers that he was within inches of achieving as your sole reason (before further explanation by you) to be down on him just seemed silly.

 

Sorry for the disrespect, the tone was not deserved given your rep around here. Maybe I'm just turning into a Gordon homer and gotta stick up for my guy haha. You always bring up fair points and I honestly could have guessed what you really meant, but I see it all over this place and Reddit--the 1,000 yard and 4YPC argument--and people are running with it like it means something. Most probably don't have any other thoughts about it too and are just spouting off because they read it somewhere, thanks for expanding on your thoughts tho.

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On 8/9/2017 at 10:06 AM, dave.zavala89 said:

Would you guys consider Freeman over Melvin Gordon after Mccoy is off the board in PPR?

Absolutely. Freeman has a much better offensive line than Gordon, and they both have similar strength of schedules. Neither are bad options, but I like Freeman and Atlanta's offense more than I do the Chargers.

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Guys, Anthony Lynn is in San Diego with Gordon.  This cannot continually be overlooked.  It's going to lead to McCoy regressing, I'll tell you that much.  Also, Shanahan leaving will also have an impact on Freeman.  Gordon is the safest of the 3.

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