Savatage79

Rob Gronkowski 2017 Season Outlook

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I can't ever let Gronk go even when I say I'm not drafting him early but this might be the first year, his injuries just get you at the worst times. But then I look at his stats and I still stand by the fact that if you have a rolling gronk in your TE, while having everyone else producing nicely, the advantage is huge. But still.... I wish we could get back to when TEs no matter what would break around round 4. I used to love breaking open the Gates, or Gman doors and having a solid TE. I have to check but even if gronk slid to round 3 that would be nice. 

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Round 3?  That's wishful thinking IMHO.  I highly doubt he slides to round 3, especially in any real true competitive ppr leagues.

His upside is too immense to pass over him in the first 2 rounds.

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 I know, it's simply just what I wish could happen. He'd never make it in my leagues to round 3 but I sometimes with adps would start trending him back a bit based on the fact of his injuries. But yea I'm sure he will go early round 2 this year. 

I just miss when round 4 was sort of designation for tight ends. I can look back to years past say 2010 and prior and most drafts I could wait til round 4 to grab gates or Gonzalez etc... But those days are gone 

Edited by Savatage79

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I agree that TEs Shouldn't go high, but they do.  I think Jimmy Graham and Gronk were the ones a few years ago to kind of start this trend.  Gronk is so bitter sweet.  I've owned at least 1 share of him each of the last few years.  When he's healthy and playing well, it immediately gives you a 10+ PPR advantage at the TE spot.  However, you almost always need a back up.  If he's there in Round 2, it's hard not to pull the trigger.

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14 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

I agree that TEs Shouldn't go high, but they do.  I think Jimmy Graham and Gronk were the ones a few years ago to kind of start this trend.  Gronk is so bitter sweet.  I've owned at least 1 share of him each of the last few years.  When he's healthy and playing well, it immediately gives you a 10+ PPR advantage at the TE spot.  However, you almost always need a back up.  If he's there in Round 2, it's hard not to pull the trigger.

Time to target Gronk again.

Edited by psygolf

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Wait & see for me.

Gun to my head, I'd agree with Savatage calling him an early second round selection.

I expect Gronk may have a chip on his shoulder after the team went ahead and won the bowl without him.

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I can't wait to have him back on my roster.
I won a number of tight games last year and I don't want to have to go through that again. I want Gronk to put up a big 20 point barrier between me and my opponent. 

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Absolutely no reason to grab Gronk early. Wait until later. The gap in TE production hasn't been that significant the last couple years. Mostly due to Graham's fall in production after leaving NO and the injuries to Gronk.

 

There is always the chance Gronk remains healthy and dominates like he did 3-4 years ago, but he also hasn't had many full seasons in his career.

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It's just a guessing game at this point. The guy is a game changer on your team especially if the rest of your team is good, then it's almost unfair. But he really does struggle a bit getting thru full seasons. However I went 16-0 without gronk this past year which was a monumental feat but I'll say this, my tight end situation was laughable. I had fleener in there, I had odoyle rules in there, was an absolute joke. And it was frustrating because if you don't have at least someone in there you just end up wasting the spot. 

I believe gronk has a good 1 or 2 really big seasons out of say 5 where he's just gonna be blowing it up, it's a matter of landing him on those and not missing out. But is that a risk I personally want to take? It's hard to say. Because in another league I took gronk with my 2nd pick and with his injuries my team just couldnt recover without having that solid 2nd pick giving me points. 

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5 hours ago, devaster said:

Absolutely no reason to grab Gronk early. Wait until later. The gap in TE production hasn't been that significant the last couple years. Mostly due to Graham's fall in production after leaving NO and the injuries to Gronk.

 

There is always the chance Gronk remains healthy and dominates like he did 3-4 years ago, but he also hasn't had many full seasons in his career.

He's been mostly healthy since after he hurt his knee in 13'. 
In fact, up until this year, those "3-4" years ago you mention were when his most serious injuries occurred. 

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3 minutes ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

He's been mostly healthy since after he hurt his knee in 13'. 
In fact, up until this year, those "3-4" years ago you mention were when his most serious injuries occurred. 

Didn't he just have another

back surgery? 

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15 minutes ago, CL3VELANDBR0WNS said:

He's been mostly healthy since after he hurt his knee in 13'. 
In fact, up until this year, those "3-4" years ago you mention were when his most serious injuries occurred. 

He didn't finish the last two seasons.

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

He didn't finish the last two seasons.

He missed one game in 2015 and it wasn't the final one.

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I've supported Gronk heavily in the past, and backed it up with stats, blah blah blah, yadda yadda yadda.  2016 was the first year I didn't draft him in a single league. (Actually that's a lie, I drafted him in 1 best ball league for the right auction price)  2016 just had a bad omen to me, but there is no way to reasonably state that on a forum.  He came into the year injured, Brady was suspended for 4 weeks, they signed the black unicorn, there were just too many red flags, but ultimately it's impossible to ignore his upside.

 

With that out of the way, I think his 2016 season will be polarizing for many people, based on how you view the data.

 

The data pool is tiny... so take this with a grain of salt BUT...

If you only analyze the 'healthy with Brady' games, which are the only ones that I would be using to predict his 2017 success (while healthy) we're looking at game logs of: PPR*
15.9

29.2

19.3

21.9

8.6 (SEA if it matters)

 

Unfortunately, that's all we got.

18.98 fantasy points per game.

About a 5 PPG advantage over the #1 PPG leader of 2016, Jordan Reed (14.2)

 

Sure, I could extrapolate these numbers and tell you that 18.98 points per game, would be 303.68 for the season, and would have landed him as the #1 TE in 2016 by 82 points.  Sure I could tell you that the only WRs to beat that season total are named Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson.  Sure I could tell you that the only RBs to outscore that season total are names Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Zeke Elliot.

 

4 of those 5 players... will be drafted in the first 4 picks.  The 5th will be a borderline 1st round pick.  Gronk, who undeniably has risks involved... can currently be drafted in the 3rd round of a 10 team PPR league...

 

#Jussayin

Normally, a 5 game sample/extrapolation means very little... but Gronk has been producing at this same rate for 6 years now.
20.7, 17.5, 17.8, 17.0, and if we use the above stipulations, 18.98.

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59 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

I've supported Gronk heavily in the past, and backed it up with stats, blah blah blah, yadda yadda yadda.  2016 was the first year I didn't draft him in a single league. (Actually that's a lie, I drafted him in 1 best ball league for the right auction price)  2016 just had a bad omen to me, but there is no way to reasonably state that on a forum.  He came into the year injured, Brady was suspended for 4 weeks, they signed the black unicorn, there were just too many red flags, but ultimately it's impossible to ignore his upside.

 

With that out of the way, I think his 2016 season will be polarizing for many people, based on how you view the data.

 

The data pool is tiny... so take this with a grain of salt BUT...

If you only analyze the 'healthy with Brady' games, which are the only ones that I would be using to predict his 2017 success (while healthy) we're looking at game logs of: PPR*
15.9

29.2

19.3

21.9

8.6 (SEA if it matters)

 

Unfortunately, that's all we got.

18.98 fantasy points per game.

About a 5 PPG advantage over the #1 PPG leader of 2016, Jordan Reed (14.2)

 

Sure, I could extrapolate these numbers and tell you that 18.98 points per game, would be 303.68 for the season, and would have landed him as the #1 TE in 2016 by 82 points.  Sure I could tell you that the only WRs to beat that season total are named Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson.  Sure I could tell you that the only RBs to outscore that season total are names Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, and Zeke Elliot.

 

4 of those 5 players... will be drafted in the first 4 picks.  The 5th will be a borderline 1st round pick.  Gronk, who undeniably has risks involved... can currently be drafted in the 3rd round of a 10 team PPR league...

 

#Jussayin

Normally, a 5 game sample/extrapolation means very little... but Gronk has been producing at this same rate for 6 years now.
20.7, 17.5, 17.8, 17.0, and if we use the above stipulations, 18.98.

Thanks for all of the data FFCollusion.  Really nice to see your back posting again on here because I really enjoy your posts.

I agree with you that he will be a polarizing player going into this season but there is no way he goes beyond the 2nd round of a 12 man PPR so your statement of where he goes in a 10 man sounds about right. 

 

 

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If you have a top 3 pick this year, imagine you land Bell-Zeke-DJ, then snag Gronk and best available WR at the 2-3 turn. Seems like a pretty good start to me.

 

I'm done trying to predict injuries. Seriously. They're all injury prone. It's a violent game. I think the only players you can kind of do that with are the ones who have a history of concussions, since once you suffer one your chances of suffering another increase. Plus, collisions are the game, so getting another one is likely (hi, Jordan Reed).

 

As of right now, I'd probably take Gronk late 2nd round.

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39 minutes ago, mrblonde1984 said:

If you have a top 3 pick this year, imagine you land Bell-Zeke-DJ, then snag Gronk and best available WR at the 2-3 turn. Seems like a pretty good start to me.

 

I'm done trying to predict injuries. Seriously. They're all injury prone. It's a violent game. I think the only players you can kind of do that with are the ones who have a history of concussions, since once you suffer one your chances of suffering another increase. Plus, collisions are the game, so getting another one is likely (hi, Jordan Reed).

 

As of right now, I'd probably take Gronk late 2nd round.

I would too.  But I don't think he'll last that long in any real competitive shark league.  

He should be gone mid 2nd at the very latest.   I'm talking PPR of course. 

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I think realistically people on the wrap will eyeball him. Because you're still in one swoop getting 2 studs. I did it last year tho and when he went down that was a huge blow, so I just hope I'm sitting alot earlier in the draft and hey if he sneaks back to me towards end of second then I'll dive but for that 10 and 11 pick if im there I think I'll really have to weigh it. Although what hurt me also was my first pick was AP, so Peterson and then Gronk.. Can't sustain that.

Edited by Savatage79

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23 hours ago, mrblonde1984 said:

If you have a top 3 pick this year, imagine you land Bell-Zeke-DJ, then snag Gronk and best available WR at the 2-3 turn. Seems like a pretty good start to me.

 

I'm done trying to predict injuries. Seriously. They're all injury prone. It's a violent game. I think the only players you can kind of do that with are the ones who have a history of concussions, since once you suffer one your chances of suffering another increase. Plus, collisions are the game, so getting another one is likely (hi, Jordan Reed).

 

As of right now, I'd probably take Gronk late 2nd round.

 

Aren't injuries based on usage more than anything else? An outside receiver facing 1x1 most games won't see as much contact as say, a running back. Likelihood of injuries varies by position.

 

Gronk carries the Pats offense when he is healthy, and he takes a ton of contact going over the middle. Safeties hit him low all the time, it must be scary for a Pats fan. As tough as he is, i can't see a guy like him ever lasting a full season...something worth thinking about on draft day if you're reaching for him early.

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On March 2, 2017 at 7:33 PM, mrblonde1984 said:

If you have a top 3 pick this year, imagine you land Bell-Zeke-DJ, then snag Gronk and best available WR at the 2-3 turn. Seems like a pretty good start to me.

 

I'm done trying to predict injuries. Seriously. They're all injury prone. It's a violent game. I think the only players you can kind of do that with are the ones who have a history of concussions, since once you suffer one your chances of suffering another increase. Plus, collisions are the game, so getting another one is likely (hi, Jordan Reed).

 

As of right now, I'd probably take Gronk late 2nd round.

Yeah I agree.
Shouldn't come as a shock that guys playing a very physical position in a violent sport can and will get hurt.

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@FFCollusion,  you found a 5ppg ppr advantage.  What do you see in standard? I found a 3ppg edge which puts him at the end of the 2nd round for me, around TY/Baldwin and Hyde/Ingram types. 

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29 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

@FFCollusion,  you found a 5ppg ppr advantage.  What do you see in standard? I found a 3ppg edge which puts him at the end of the 2nd round for me, around TY/Baldwin and Hyde/Ingram types. 

 

Ummmm, I found a 5.5 PPG advantage in standard scoring.  Hell, even before removing any games, Gronk was still the #1 TE in PPG for standard scoring last year at 9.0 to Reed's 8.7, despite 2 donuts, and a 1 point game.  2 of which came with Brady's backup, and the 3rd was the game he left early with injury.

 

When isolating his healthy+Brady games we get: 10.9, 22.2, 15.3, 16.9, 5.6, for an average of 14.18.  About 5.5 point per game advantage over Reed.

In standard scoring, his 14.18 would have out paced every single WR in the game, Antonio Brown was #1 at 13.4.  Among RBs he would have tied with Blount, leaving just 7 ahead of him on a PPG basis.  Meaning on a PPG basis Gronk was the 8th highest scorer (non-QB) in the game last year.  That's partially skewed, as we could apply the same caveat of cherry picking games and removing injuries for other players, but with that caveat in mind, Gronk was easily a top 10 player last year, who is currently being drafted 23rd overall in standard formats.

 

Gronk has always been a TD monster, so in my personal opinion, he's usually more valuable in Standard scoring formats, which value TDs more than anything in the game.  For that same reason, I don't play standard, so perhaps I shouldn't assume his value for the past 6 years in said format, just my personal opinion.  TDs rule all, and Gronk is one of, if not the, premier TD scorer in the league.

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