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Rob Gronkowski 2017 Season Outlook

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If you draft Gronk with a 2nd or 3rd round pick, you're expecting him to eat week and and week out.  Sadly, he hasn't been a good return on investment this year.  I'm not going to draft him ever again.  Rather have an RB or WR like all the draft experts typically say.

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41 minutes ago, CooL said:

If you draft Gronk with a 2nd or 3rd round pick, you're expecting him to eat week and and week out.  Sadly, he hasn't been a good return on investment this year.  I'm not going to draft him ever again.  Rather have an RB or WR like all the draft experts typically say.

Even with Gronk being underwhelming, he's still a 5 point per game advantage over a mid-tier TE. That's significant.

 

He's putting up WR1 numbers, so I'd stop whining and just be happy he's healthy.

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11 hours ago, CooL said:

If you draft Gronk with a 2nd or 3rd round pick, you're expecting him to eat week and and week out.  Sadly, he hasn't been a good return on investment this year.  I'm not going to draft him ever again.  Rather have an RB or WR like all the draft experts typically say.

 

you mean like Doug Baldwin? The WR who had the same ADP and same fantasy points, but no TE eligibility?

 

maybe you should have paid even more for Julio Jones, who has less points than Gronk. How about Jordy Nelson, Mike Evans, or Michael Thomas?  All WRs with higher ADPs and less fantasy points than Gronk at TE. 

 

yeah. You could’ve listened to experts and done something dumb like that. 

 

Personally I’ll stick with Gronk. 

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31 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

you mean like Doug Baldwin? The WR who had the same ADP and same fantasy points, but no TE eligibility?

 

maybe you should have paid even more for Julio Jones, who has less points than Gronk. How about Jordy Nelson, Mike Evans, or Michael Thomas?  All WRs with higher ADPs and less fantasy points than Gronk at TE. 

 

yeah. You could’ve listened to experts and done something dumb like that. 

 

Personally I’ll stick with Gronk. 

You must not play in PPR.  Julio and Michael Thomas have more points than Gronk.

I can do it too - would you rather have Gurley, Mark Ingram, Melvin Gordon,  Fournette, McCoy, Landry, Keenan Allen, Brandin Cooks, etc.?  I know I would.

 

Kelce, Ertz, and Evan Engram have all been comparable to Gronk at considerably less cost.  Yes, you had to be lucky to hit on one of those three.  The argument that "there's less of a sure thing at TE than at WR/RB" is typically what is used to justify drafting Gronk.  Fell for it this year.  Think I could have won more games with Gurley, Ingram, or Fournette.

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1 hour ago, CooL said:

I can do it too - would you rather have Gurley, Mark Ingram, Melvin Gordon,  Fournette, McCoy, Landry, Keenan Allen, Brandin Cooks, etc.?  I know I would.

 

Kelce, Ertz, and Evan Engram have all been comparable to Gronk at considerably less cost.  Yes, you had to be lucky to hit on one of those three.  The argument that "there's less of a sure thing at TE than at WR/RB" is typically what is used to justify drafting Gronk.  Fell for it this year.  Think I could have won more games with Gurley, Ingram, or Fournette.

 

Actually you didn’t “do it” at all. Gronk is retuning more on his draft price than most WRs at or above his ADP.  Period. And that is WITH TE eligibility. That has nothing to do with “getting lucky”, which is a dumb comparison.

Edited by Fiveohnine

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I don't understand the Gronk hate.  My league is 0.5 PPR, and Gronk is currently the #2 TE, and is putting up 11.2 PPG on average according to ESPN, which includes the 0 he got in the Tampa game.  Take out the Tampa game, and he currently averages 12.4 PPG, which would put him right around the 20th overall player (not including QBs).

 

Odds are Gronk was drafted around 20th overall or so, so I would think he's pretty much returning value.  He isn't exploding as often, but he certainly hasn't been close to disappointing.  

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1 hour ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

Actually you didn’t “do it” at all. Gronk is retuning more on his draft price than most WRs at or above his ADP.  Period. And that is WITH TE eligibility. That has nothing to do with “getting lucky”, which is a dumb comparison.

I think I did. In a big 12 or 14 team league, I would have much rather drafted Gurley. Or Ingram. Or Fournette. All of whom were available in the second. To each their own though. Every year I'm envious of the guy with the reliable TE.  I thought Gronk would be enough of a WEEKLY difference maker to justify his price.  This year I'm envious of the guys with the reliable stud RB.

Will go back to traditional drafting strategy next year.

 

 

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hindsight 20/20 around here, guy saying id rather have drafted ingram and ertz late for TE, bruh GTFO,  everyone would, it was simply not that obvious at draft time, I got Gronk in the 3rd and looking at what got drafted in the 3-4th round, quite happy about that, Gronk still is a threat and an obvious advantage at TE

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52 minutes ago, CooL said:

I think I did. In a big 12 or 14 team league, I would have much rather drafted Gurley. Or Ingram. Or Fournette. All of whom were available in the second. To each their own though. Every year I'm envious of the guy with the reliable TE.  I thought Gronk would be enough of a WEEKLY difference maker to justify his price.  This year I'm envious of the guys with the reliable stud RB.

Will go back to traditional drafting strategy next year.

 

 

 

But if you would've drafted Gurley or Engram or Fournette, who would've been your TE? Could it have been Reed or Olsen or Walker or Eifert? You have no idea. Like the previous poster said, it's easy to say if I had done something, etc. The bottom line is Gronk is still a top 5 TE and almost always has a pretty high floor.

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56 minutes ago, CooL said:

I think I did. In a big 12 or 14 team league, I would have much rather drafted Gurley. Or Ingram. Or Fournette. All of whom were available in the second. To each their own though. Every year I'm envious of the guy with the reliable TE.  I thought Gronk would be enough of a WEEKLY difference maker to justify his price.  This year I'm envious of the guys with the reliable stud RB.

Will go back to traditional drafting strategy next year.

 

 

 

20/20 hindsight: the post

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1 hour ago, CooL said:

I think I did. In a big 12 or 14 team league, I would have much rather drafted Gurley. Or Ingram. Or Fournette. All of whom were available in the second. To each their own though. Every year I'm envious of the guy with the reliable TE.  I thought Gronk would be enough of a WEEKLY difference maker to justify his price.  This year I'm envious of the guys with the reliable stud RB.

Will go back to traditional drafting strategy next year.

 

 

 

Also, if you were this disappointed in Gronk, you had ample opportunity to trade him all season. I'm sure there were many "fools" out there who would've been willing to take him off your hands - assuming your trade deadline has already passed.

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1 hour ago, lolcopter said:

 

20/20 hindsight: the post

Well of course it's hindsight. It's week 12. Who hasn't evaluated their team at this point in the season and thought "what if?" Gronk' production has been fine, he just hasn't lived up to my higher expectations of what I thought was a very high ceiling. Anybody that can say they weren't annoyed at his three catch game last week and zero second half looks is fooling themselves. And don't say "it was gameflow" because a second round pick shouldn't be gameflow dependent.

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Drafted Gronk over Gurley :(

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Just read Gronk has "immune" related illness.  Might be cold/flu symptoms but didn't sound serious.

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lol at the if posts especially the Ingram and Ertz... if you could predict something like that then you would be the greatest fantasy football player ever. It’s never that obvious of a decision until after the fact. Stupid comment.

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29 minutes ago, krest509 said:

Why would u do that

Gurley, Goff and the entire offense was God awful last year thus I didn’t want to get burned again.

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5 hours ago, ShowStopper said:

lol at the if posts especially the Ingram and Ertz... if you could predict something like that then you would be the greatest fantasy football player ever. It’s never that obvious of a decision until after the fact. Stupid comment.

In my league, Gurley, Gordon, and Fournette went in the picks immediately after Gronk in the second. Ingram lasted until the third.  So it's not "stupid" to think that Gurley and Gordon were perhaps a better pick.

 

Look, I'm not saying that Gronk is a terrible pick. I'm just saying that he's not returning as much value given his draft cost as some of the other guys who went around his ADP.  He is the TE10 by average points over the last 5 games, according to one of the Rotoworld articles.  You think that's worth your second round pick?  I don't think so.

 

Yes, if I could draft again, I'd draft Gurley, Kamara, Ertz, Thielen, Fitz.  That's a stupid comment.  Of course everybody would think they should have drafted them.  My point is that - at least in my league - the three guys picked after Gronk have been better picks.

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1 hour ago, CooL said:

In my league, Gurley, Gordon, and Fournette went in the picks immediately after Gronk in the second. Ingram lasted until the third.  So it's not "stupid" to think that Gurley and Gordon were perhaps a better pick.

 

Look, I'm not saying that Gronk is a terrible pick. I'm just saying that he's not returning as much value given his draft cost as some of the other guys who went around his ADP.  He is the TE10 by average points over the last 5 games, according to one of the Rotoworld articles.  You think that's worth your second round pick?  I don't think so.

 

Yes, if I could draft again, I'd draft Gurley, Kamara, Ertz, Thielen, Fitz.  That's a stupid comment.  Of course everybody would think they should have drafted them.  My point is that - at least in my league - the three guys picked after Gronk have been better picks.

Ingram's ADP was never that high, so cut that nonsense. Yahoo, ESPN, and NFL.com all had his ADP in the 5th round or later.

 

Gordon was going late first in most leagues, again, not in Gronk's price range. Fournette and Gurley were around Gronk's ADP.... but so was Dalvin Cook, Isaiah Crowell, Amari Cooper, and Terrelle Pryor.

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16 hours ago, CooL said:

In my league, Gurley, Gordon, and Fournette went in the picks immediately after Gronk in the second.

 

Yes, if I could draft again, I'd draft Gurley, Kamara, Ertz, Thielen, Fitz.  That's a stupid comment.  Of course everybody would think they should have drafted them.  My point is that - at least in my league - the three guys picked after Gronk have been better picks.

 

Two parts.  To the top part, I offer you context.  If you were to go to the Todd Gurley thread and saw someone who owned him posting about how he wasn't worth their 2nd round pick because they could have just gotten Kamara way cheaper... what would you think of them?  Because that's who you are in this thread.
Addition context, M.Gordon is 19th among RBs over the past 5 weeks, and Fournette is 37th, so I'm not sure you're making a very compelling case.

 

To the bottom part... do we really have to have this same exact discussion every single year?

You all are free to draft any way you desire.  To me Gronk's value doesn't necessarily lie in some magical guarantee to be the #1 TE in the league every year, his value lies in the minuscule window of 'possible outcomes'.  I weigh this very heavily when I draft players, personally.  Gronk has one of the smallest list of 'potential outcomes' in the league in my opinion.  If he's health he's a top 2 TE... or he gets hurt.  That's it.  There has never been another scenario for Gronk.

Gronk entered the league in 2010.  Over the next 6 years from 2011 to 2016, Gronk has been a top 2 TE in PPG (Assuming Tom Brady is throwing him the football).

It's 2017 and guess where he is; currently the #2 TE in the game.  Sure, the past 5 weeks haven't been exciting by any means, and his TD totals are down on the year, but he's doing exactly what he does.  Top 2 at his position, with no random scenario's involved.  So, yes... he was worth my late 2nd round pick.  His predictability greatly influences his value, in my personal opinion.  Perhaps not yours.

 

On 7/13/2017 at 3:45 PM, FFCollusion said:

Ignorant statement, with no real world application to a fantasy draft.  In any given year, there will be a <convincing number> that will outscore <any early round stud of any position>.  It's a blatantly obvious bet to take 'the field' against any single player in fantasy.  Just because there are 5-6 RBs with potential to outscore Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson, doesn't mean you shouldn't draft Bell or DJ.  You aren't investing that heavily in players for a guaranteed #1 finish, you invest in them because you know their range of outcomes is as high as 1, and as bad as 12.  Julio Jones, OBJ, Mike Evans, are all just as likely to finish #1 on the season as Antonio Brown is... why do we still draft AB #1?  Because we all know, that Antonio Brown could have the worst year of his entire career, and is still likely going to be a top 10 WR.  So when we apply this to Gronk... I don't care if there's 1 random TE that outscores him in PPG every year, because in all 4 of the years you've outlined, Gronk was top 2.

 

On 7/12/2017 at 9:49 PM, RMJ_12 said:

That being said who is more likely to be worse than their career averages this season?  [Aaron] Rodgers or the TE coming off of back surgery?

Was looking for my quote above, and found this on the way.  Just a friendly reminder to everyone, predicting injuries is a fools errand.

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52 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Two parts.  To the top part, I offer you context.  If you were to go to the Todd Gurley thread and saw someone who owned him posting about how he wasn't worth their 2nd round pick because they could have just gotten Kamara way cheaper... what would you think of them?  Because that's who you are in this thread.
Addition context, M.Gordon is 19th among RBs over the past 5 weeks, and Fournette is 37th, so I'm not sure you're making a very compelling case.

 

 

Not sure I'm following here.  Todd Gurley is the #1 player in the league.  Kamara is 41 PPR points behind him.  Nobody is going to be debating whether or not he was worth the 2nd round pick.  

 

I'm merely having some regret as Gurley was drafted immediately after I picked Gronk.  For your hypothetical and unrealistic Gurley scenario, would Kamara have been drafted immediately after Gurley?  I doubt it.

 

Not sure why I'm being criticized so much here.  We all have regrets in drafts. I'm merely expressing that.  All the preseason hype about Gurley was that he was going to be a 300 touch workhorse.  But all I could remember was the terrible 2016 and how bad the Rams were.  I didn't trust that McVay was going to be able to turn around this team and offense.  Who would have?  There was a lot of debate about "good RBs on bad teams" argument to say that Gurley was still worth a high pick.  I just didn't go with it.  Should have.

 

There's just too much Gronk love here for what lately has been average production.

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