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David Peralta 2017 Outlook


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Incredibly surprised to not find a thread on this guy. Undeniably injuries are going to be a factor for Peralta in 2017 and he needs to be healthy to produce at the level he showed capable of in 2015, but considering the upside he showed with a .360/.401/.570 slash in the second half, I'm surprised that a guy with his situation in that lineup and park is going as low as he is. 

Edited by taobball
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12 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

how many at bats will he get?

 

All of them if he's healthy. 

 

Big fan of Mr. Peralta. He was a pretty substantial and universal sleeper going into 2016 and spent the vast majority of the year injured. People forget just how good Peralta was down the stretch in 2015, with a .360/.401/.577 slash in the second half of 2015. I’d like to see him look healthy in Spring Training but I don’t necessarily know if it’s fair to call him injury prone, and I really like him from a talent standpoint. I dug deep into his 2015 as if we were in 2016 to see what I would come up with.

 

Firstly, there are injury concerns here as Peralta had two separate ailments last year and the last of which was a wrist injury, so there is some reason to be concerned about the future, but I think the concern has gone too far in pushing his ADP to the 300+ range.

 

A lot of times I comp players at some point, mostly towards the end, but I’m going to do this one up front: the person David Peralta consistently reminds me of is Christian Yelich with fewer walks. Along with both being left handed outfielders, they are comparable to me in terms of contact, strikeouts, they both possess low FB%s, they both have good power for those FB%s, they have similar speed, etc. I’ll start with a list of comparisons:
 

O-Contact% / Z-Contact%:

Yelich (Career): 57.4% / 88.2%

Peralta (2015): 60.2% / 88.4%

 

K%:

Yelich (Career): 20.9%

Peralta (2015): 20.7%

 

Elevated K% v. LHP:

Yelich (Career): 23.5%

Peralta (2015): 25.6%

 

FB%:

Yelich (Career): 17.3% (and 20.0% for the first time in 2016)

Peralta (2015): 26.6%

 

LD%:

Yelich (Career): 22.5%

Peralta (2015): 21.3%

 

Hard%:

Yelich (Career): 35.1%

Peralta (2015): 35.4%

 

SB/600 PAs:

Yelich (Career): 16 per 600 PAs (only 9 in 2016 in 659 PAs)

Peralta (2015): 10.5 per 600 PAs

 

SLG v. LHP:

Yelich (Career): 0.367

Peralta (2015): 0.375

 

And I feel like I could make a few more if I really tried.

 

Now in terms of 2015 performance, Peralta’s .312 BA was held up by a combination of a .368 BABIP and a light platooning v. LHP, but I’d project Peralta’s BABIP to be pretty high based on what he did that year. Peralta has a GB/LD lean, he’s pretty fast, and he hits the ball pretty hard. Peralta’s xBABIP runs about .333 and considering Chase field, I think a .340+ BABIP based on what he did in 2015 is pretty fair. Here’s another thing to consider: one of the problems with Hard% is that it counts all batted ball types, but sometimes you can get a good exit velocity with a bad launch angle, i.e. a very hard hit grounder or a ball very hard hit right into the ground and popped up on a bounce. According to this fangraphs article written prior to the 2016 season, Peralta’s Hard contact rate on Line Drives and Fly balls was actually considerably higher (50%) and was good for 10th best in baseball. So on the balls the perhaps count the most, Peralta hit the ball particularly hard. Now I’m not going to project Peralta to hit even .300 this year, especially off of injury, but I think he definitely has that in his bat, and I think that if he can make the smallest of improvements v. LHPs he could even threaten .310 again. And I don’t think the healthy floor in BA is really all that low. This guy makes good, hard contact in Chase and runs well. His BABIP should stay healthily above .300.

 

Now, Peralta has a somewhat low Oppo% at less than 22%, but for the most part, I’m not really concerned at all. (I’m less concerned when you see the plate coverage information below.) For one, Peralta’s Oppo% is pretty bad on Ground balls, so perhaps they employ some sort of shift, but that’s harder to do with someone of his speed, and when you split his batted balls and take a look at his Line Drives, his Oppo% goes up to 26%. Take a look at his spray chart particularly with Line Drives, this does not seem to me to be a guy whose BABIP will suffer because of a lack of an ability to drive the ball to the opposite field:

 

David Peralta Spray Chart

 

In terms of his basic splits, to be honest, I have little complaints for a first year lefty. I mean, no they weren’t ideal, but for a guy seeing left handed pitching at the major league level for the first time in his career, a .250/.311/.375 slash line just really isn’t all that bad to me. Take the aforementioned Christian Yelich, who hit .287/.329/.387 v. LHP last year. Now that line is better, I’ll grant you that, but not by a whole lot, and a difference of 30 points of OPS (.686 v. .716). In regards to his batted balls versus lefties, he used the Opposite field a bit more (25.4% v. 20.8%), had zero pop-ups, and still delivered a worse but solid and above average 32.2% Hard%. That in combination with his speed make me believe that the .328 BABIP he put up v. LHPs is probably pretty legitimate, and while Peralta isn’t incredibly young in years (29), if he improves in terms of experience, I could see him getting a little bit better, potentially cutting his 25.6% K% v. LHP down towards even just the 22-23% range, which could continue to push his BA overall up, because I think he’s going to mash righties, even if not to the .325/.384/.552 slash of 2015, I’m pretty confident in his ability of players on that side.

 

Peralta’s HR/FB% is a bit high, and for a semi-low FB hitter, I do think that he may struggle to hit 20, but I also think he has that in his bat too. For one, if you believe anything chased with the baseballs in 2016, Peralta was not the beneficiary of those inflated stats. I also really like Peralta’s homers in terms of distance and spread. Peralta averaged over 400 Ft. per HR and hit multiple HRs to center and left center. It seems like he does hit a few more low launch angle, high exit velo homers, which is consistent with the rest of his batted ball profile. I think, like Yelich, that Peralta can potentially defy his FB% and possess 20+ HR power, but I’ll probably project him to fall just short.

 

In terms of Plate Discipline, Peralta is ever-so-slightly aggressive, with a chase rate that is a mere 1.2% above average, and a zone swing rate that is about 1.4% above average. So that in combination of an 8+% BB% in 2015 give me the sense that Peralta is right around a league average walker. Looking through his zones, it seems that he chases low balls with bad results just a little too much, but nothing substantially concerning. Peralta has a pretty normal to slightly elevated chase rate on pitches missing low and away (35.63%). By his Brooks’ profile, Peralta’s worst chase zone is middle up, but he SLGs over .500 in that range. Peralta does struggle and swings a lot at balls on the inner third of the plate but high, whiffing a good amount and with no base hits in this range, so he could work on this, but overall he seems like a pretty average PD hitter who will have a healthy but not-double-digit BB% to me.

 

David Peralta 2015 Swing%

 

Peralta does have a relatively high whiff rate on low balls, and in some of the higher ranges.

 

David Peralta 2015 Whiff%

 

However, I’m also rather impressed with Peralta’s plate coverage. While he does have a bit of a pull tendency, as referenced with his Spray Chart earlier, Peralta does seem to show a good opposite field approach when necessary. Peralta was excellent at hitting balls outside, even those that were off the plate outside. Peralta slugged .567 on the outer 3rd of the plate and an even better .618 on pitches that were out of the zone outside but not on the corners. Peralta did struggle with balls that were low, particularly balls between middle low and the low and away pitch, but for the most part his plate coverage looks really good to me:

 

David Peralta 2015 SLG%

 

Took a look at Peralta’s pitch specifics and didn’t find too much to worry about, though I am convinced that if he wants to make strides v. LHPs, it will have to come with improvements against the Slider. Here are Peralta’s Whiff%’s by pitch typing:

 

4SFB: 11.11%

Sinker: 4.66%

Change: 16.00%

Slider: 17.37%

Curve: 14.98%

Cutter: 11.03%

 

So the only thing that sticks out to me here is that Peralta definitely prefers sinkers to 4-seamers. I am I would always expect 4-Seamers to have a higher whiff rate, but not only is the 4-seam whiff rate a tad high for my taste, Peralta absolutely mashed Sinkers. Sinkers were Peralta’s favorite pitch type as he mashed a .447 BA and .262 ISO for a .709 SLG. Aside from Cutters, which he also mashed to a .395 ISO (!!) and .711 SLG, this was by far his favorite pitch type. Thus, as one would expect, Peralta did dominate groundball oriented pitchers:

 

Split by Pitcher Type via Baseball Reference:

GB: .349/.441/.586

G/F: .308/.350/.510

FB: .265/.307/.451
 

And like his lefty split, looking at his FB line may not be the best, but if his “bad” split is a .758 OPS, we’ll be just fine.

 

The whiff rate on 4 seamers is a bit high, but I attribute it partially to eagerness to chase high pitches. I think this is something he can bring down and either way isn't an overwhelming weakness.

 

Back to those Sliders. The whiff% on sliders is not that bad, nor are the overall results. Peralta had a .119 ISO v. Sliders and a .373 SLG, neither of which are particularly bad for your worst pitch. I did however run a lefty split because I assumed Peralta had a high Whiff% and K% against Sliders, and sure enough, Peralta whiffed on 23.38% of Lefty Sliders, and had 11 of his 25 PAs ending in Sliders end in a strikeout (44%). Now again, it’s odd to say because he was 27 then and 29 now, but this is a guy who was facing top level lefties for the first time in his life, so while I do not give him a PASS, I find it’s likely he can improve to a small degree and help him to achieve a high Batting Average.

 

The rest of Peralta's pitch specific data looks pretty good, with solid ISOs and SLGs. The only thing even perhaps worth mentioning is that he did not homer off of a change up, but also had 6 doubles and 2 triples and a .266/.422 line, so it's not something I'm all that concerned with.

 

Updated Bottom Line Projection: .290/79/19/88/11

 

Bottom Line: I’ve already made the Bold Prediction that Joc Pederson will beat out George Springer on the 2017 Player Rater. The idea with that projection is they’re somewhat similar players to me with somewhat similar skillsets, not necessarily that I think Joc will win, but I think Joc is a discounted version of George that could potentially return similar value far later. In this same vein, I’m tempted to take David Peralta over another hitter I like quite a bit, the aforementioned Christian Yelich. And again, it’s not that I believe Peralta is better, but if he’s fully healthy going into 2017, I foresee this as a player who is well suited for Chase Field, who will maintain a high BABIP and a strong BA in the .290-.305 range, hit over 15 HRs and threaten 20 or more, and potentially steal double digit bases. Peralta is also looking to bat in the top probably four of what should be a pretty potent top of the lineup if health remains stable for fellow injured OFer Pollack and slugger Paul Goldschmidt. So I think Peralta could be a good source of average, HR+SBs, and R+RBIs this year, and he’s going as a forgotten man with an ADP passed 300 according to fantasypros. Now again, health could be a concern for Peralta, but Peralta constitutes someone who could also be a massive steal in fantasy drafts and is at a price where there’s very little risk. I’ll be jumping him quite a few rounds in a few drafts, and can also see myself bumping him up my rankings. This is a top 100 player to me if it were 2016, and he's not going at an 85% price like teammate AJ Pollock. Here’s to hoping he can stay healthy through the 2017 season.

Edited by taobball
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Was such a big fan heading into last season. I think most of his value for the upcoming year is tied to the health of that wrist. Also whether or not he sits against lefties (career .222 with no power v)...lots of lefties in that division. I still think he can rake against RHP, but it caps his value. I get that its a relative value thing when comparing, but Yellich is much younger and can actually hit lefties, there is no way Peralta can end up near him (outside of injury) on the player rater.

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Wow, taobball, fantastic post, and you have me convinced. I rescind my comment on Parrothead's post about bumping him down a tier. Still not as sold on the AZ lineup but that may change when I look into them more. Thanks for taking the time to put that together.

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Add to all this Peralta's personal struggles (from being a pitcher in St. Louis organization, to being injured and cut, to going back to Venezuela to remake himself as a position player) getting to the majors and he's also an easy guy to root for. I believe he was flipping hamburgers at a fast food chain for a while...

Edited by Stats
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If you haven't drafted already his ADP is likely to rise but even then I still think he'll be a bargain. Like @Fuzzy_Slippers said even if he goes in the 15th round he will still produce numbers to warrant that pick (if he stays healthy), which at that point in the draft I'm willing to accept the risk. Right now Rotochamp has him projected to hit cleanup which I thought was interesting. Anyone see other projections or notice where he's been hitting in ST?

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1 hour ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

I've seen him hitting 2nd and 3rd. 

Yeah I think that better suits him and the team. They also had Ketel Marte projected at leadoff, which for a guy with an OBP lower than .300 last year, doesn't seem like a good idea.

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On 3/21/2017 at 1:37 AM, jfazz23 said:

so if hes there in like the 16th/17th round...would you take him over guys like Brantley, Fowler, Calhoun, Pence, Grichuck ??

 

i am thinking yes, i just want a 2nd opinion

He might be worth a flier but taking him over those guys is crazy talk.  I wish people in my leagues paid for peralta over those guys, I would clean up.

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12 minutes ago, yake said:

He might be worth a flier but taking him over those guys is crazy talk.  I wish people in my leagues paid for peralta over those guys, I would clean up.

 

I'd take him over Grichuk all day. we're talking about a potential 50+ point difference in average or OBP. Grichuk has the raw power advantage, but Peralta every other advantage, and has the "hitting cleanup in a lineup with Pollock and Goldy" advantage. 

 

Agreed about the other four though, especially with how Brantley looks this Spring. 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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