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Austin Hedges 2017 Outlook

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8 minutes ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

Picking him up at this point. What do you guys see his upside as? .250 25?

 

I picked him up yesterday. That seemsike a good ceiling 

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I laughed at the "bottom-tier catcher" blurb as well, but they're not wrong -- this power burst is way above what he's shown before, and you can't really ding them for not instantly vaulting him up the rankings and assuming that he's suddenly progressed skills-wise.  We all remember Jarrod Saltalamacchia's crazy run last year where he was cracking dongs left and right, yeah?  Dude's still a backup.

 

I dropped Castillo for Hedges last night, so I'm willing to gamble that he's figured something out at the plate, but it's still a gamble -- nobody should be ranking Hedges ahead of Castillo right now.  That doesn't mean you don't go get him to see if there's something there.

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30 minutes ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

Picking him up at this point. What do you guys see his upside as? .250 25?

Looks like a home run every game!

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5 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

I laughed at the "bottom-tier catcher" blurb as well, but they're not wrong -- this power burst is way above what he's shown before...

 

 

The man hit 21 dingers in only half a season's worth of games last year.

 

I'd recommend this article to get up to speed on Hedges: https://www.google.com/amp/www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/padres-catcher-austin-hedges-has-unlocked-his-power-with-a-simple-mechanical-change/amp/

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7 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

I laughed at the "bottom-tier catcher" blurb as well, but they're not wrong -- this power burst is way above what he's shown before, and you can't really ding them for not instantly vaulting him up the rankings and assuming that he's suddenly progressed skills-wise.  We all remember Jarrod Saltalamacchia's crazy run last year where he was cracking dongs left and right, yeah?  Dude's still a backup.

 

I dropped Castillo for Hedges last night, so I'm willing to gamble that he's figured something out at the plate, but it's still a gamble -- nobody should be ranking Hedges ahead of Castillo right now.  That doesn't mean you don't go get him to see if there's something there.

 

As far as catcher rankings go, it's Posey, Sanchez, Lucroy, followed by whichever catchers are hitting the ball that week lol

 

If there's any position where you just ride the hot streak it's catcher

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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

The man hit 21 dingers in only half a season's worth of games last year.

 

Do we need to go through the litany of minor league hitters who showed flashes of power in the PCL but couldn't transition those skills to the bigs?  It obviously takes some power to hit 21 bombs in under 400 PA at any level, but until you've shown it against major league pitching in major league parks, you haven't really shown it.

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Just picked him up. Dropping if he goes a game without a homerun though

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52 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Do we need to go through the litany of minor league hitters who showed flashes of power in the PCL but couldn't transition those skills to the bigs?  It obviously takes some power to hit 21 bombs in under 400 PA at any level, but until you've shown it against major league pitching in major league parks, you haven't really shown it.

 

I hope we don't.  But how can you hold something against Hedges that he's never even had a proper opportunity to prove (at the ML level, that is)?!

 

My point is he showed fairly prodigious power last year at AAA and is now receiving a full and fair opportunity this year in MLB.  I believe it was just yesterday I was reading someone else's post on how it's silly to simply discard any power accomplishments in AAA because they happened not to occur in the International League.

Edited by BMcP

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I'm not discarding the numbers at El Paso -- they happened, and I acknowledged above that putting that many balls over the fence at any level takes power.  But there's a reason scouts try to assess both raw power and game power, and all AAA numbers do is give you a hint at the raw power while telling you very little about game power at the major league level.

Anyway, this is kind of a silly argument -- my point was that this power outburst is way above what anyone could have expected, so calling him a "bottom tier" catcher is entirely fair right now.  That may prove to be wrong, but you can't assume that the sudden explosion is him figuring something out.

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You have a point - he was long regarded as a defense-first backstop and he hasn't yet done enough to shake up those expectations.

 

So instead of perpetuating a silly argument, I'll contribute another article I found helpful in understanding Hedges' growth as a power hitter: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/austin-hedges-learned-how-to-hit/

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I'm not saying he will ever be a top 5 catcher but maybe he is figuring things out. He started out the season going 0-24 but he has been on fire for the last 10 days or so. They made adjustments to his swing last year and he hit well even though it was the PCL. I just saw this article:

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/225704964/swing-fix-has-helped-padres-austin-hedges/

 

it says to to start the season his body has been out of sync. They showed him video and he made a simple adjustment. Maybe he is on to something. 

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In his first 8 game from, 04/03 to 04/11, he went 0/24 with 25.9 K% and 7.4 BB% 

In the 8 games after, his hot streak, he has a 26.7 K%and 3.3 BB%.

 

I don't think anything has changed for him.

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What's up with this guy's BABIP?

His power seems legit but he has posted a 0.150 BABIP over 90 PAs now dating back to last year, and posted a 0.200 BABIP over 150 PAs in 2015. Are his hits being his mis-classified or is he just slow as ****? 

His LD% is 20%. It seems like his BABIP should be higher than 0.150 with that many line drives.

- Let's say half of his LDs are falling for hits 
- Let's say every flyball that he hits is an out if it isnt a homer 
- That means his 45% GBs are falling for hits only (5/45) ~= 10% of the time. Wtf

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I truly hate catchers. I added him simply because he's one of the rare ones that gets consistent playing time. Out of the lineup today.

 

The guy who owns Sanchez in our league put him on the DL and has been riding with an open catcher spot. Can't say i blame him.

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3 minutes ago, Bravesfan155 said:

I truly hate catchers. I added him simply because he's one of the rare ones that gets consistent playing time. Out of the lineup today.

 

The guy who owns Sanchez in our league put him on the DL and has been riding with an open catcher spot. Can't say i blame him.

I've debated about doing same thing. Since Sanchez has gone down I've picked up and dropped 5 different catchers, I'm currently on Hedges. It would probably be better to just have an open catcher slot going 0-0 every game then have to deal with Vogt, Castillo, and etc going 0-4 every game.

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4 minutes ago, soxfan94 said:

I've debated about doing same thing. Since Sanchez has gone down I've picked up and dropped 5 different catchers, I'm currently on Hedges. It would probably be better to just have an open catcher slot going 0-0 every game then have to deal with Vogt, Castillo, and etc going 0-4 every game.

 

I've thought about it but you'd essentially be subtracting roughly 50+ runs, 10+ HR, 50+ RBI from your season total, which could literally make or break your season

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1 minute ago, street sharks said:

I've thought about it but you'd essentially be subtracting roughly 50+ runs, 10+ HR, 50+ RBI from your season total, which could literally make or break your season

 

Yeah, but that doesn't count the opportunity cost of the roster slot, which you can use to speculate on help in other areas without hurting your average the way a waiver-wire catcher does.  I can easily see the value of that slot being used for other positions exceeding whatever you get from streaming bad catchers.

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53 minutes ago, street sharks said:

 

I've thought about it but you'd essentially be subtracting roughly 50+ runs, 10+ HR, 50+ RBI from your season total, which could literally make or break your season

 

Well if you play in a h2h league and dont have a good catcher youre better off not playing one.

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25 minutes ago, Evincar said:

Well if you play in a h2h league and don't have a good catcher you're better off not playing one.

 

1 hour ago, street sharks said:

I've thought about it but you'd essentially be subtracting roughly 50+ runs, 10+ HR, 50+ RBI from your season total, which could literally make or break your season

 

1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

Yeah, but that doesn't count the opportunity cost of the roster slot, which you can use to speculate on help in other areas without hurting your average the way a waiver-wire catcher does.  I can easily see the value of that slot being used for other positions exceeding whatever you get from streaming bad catchers.

 

disclaimer: I missed playoffs last year

 

however, if you miss out on Posey/Lucroy/Gary/(and arguably Contreras) I love the idea of punting catcher and using that roster spot elsewhere. Lots of ways to go about it: nab an extra reliever and polish those ratios and k's... snag a speedy Dyson type to platoon with whichever outfielder has an off-night, and try to get a steals boost... use the extra spot to stream 2-start-pitchers with favorable matchups.

 

I much prefer that to the Wellington Castillo or Cameron Rupp experience. 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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3 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Yeah, but that doesn't count the opportunity cost of the roster slot, which you can use to speculate on help in other areas without hurting your average the way a waiver-wire catcher does.  I can easily see the value of that slot being used for other positions exceeding whatever you get from streaming bad catchers.

 

Yeah, the way the schedules are formatted now, with less than 32 teams playing on a given night about 3 days a week, you'd be better off just leaving the spot open and picking up an outfielder to slot in for your off day guy. Then on the days all 32 are going, pick up a reliever. That's what some owners in my league are doing. I should say they're also rostering a catcher - but they instead just drop some expendable reliever.

 

By the numbers - before today's games:

Most teams are at about 18,19 games played. The catcher with the most AB's - Salvador Perez - has 62. 62/19 = 3.2 AB's per game.

Only 10 catchers are at or over 48 AB's for the year, which averages out to 2.5 AB's per game. 5 of them are batting below .220. The rest of them, their counting stats are atrocious. Only 2: Austin Hedges and Wilson Contreras, have double digit RBI's. 

 

If you stayed on top of it, used that open spot to get 4 AB's on short days, extra relief pitcher on a full day, perhaps steam some starters you like, i definitely think you'd come out on top.

 

I realize it'd be better to use PA's but ESPN only lets me sort by AB's. I'm sure the point would still stand though.

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, street sharks said:

 

I've thought about it but you'd essentially be subtracting roughly 50+ runs, 10+ HR, 50+ RBI from your season total, which could literally make or break your season

 

In h2h it is relatively easy to overcome waiver wire catcher production. Between the unpredictable rest days for a catcher and the very real possibility of them giving you a negative contribution to the AVG or OBP category it is very easy to make the argument that you are better off not rostering one. This is especially true early in the season when you can roster an extra lottery ticket player at another position instead.

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I'm in a move limited league with Vogt sucking the air out of my stats.I'm thinking of experimenting with this theory for a month,with the ace card of Ramos stashed on the DL,ready to provide quality ABs in June with the DH goodness.Yum!

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Having Ramos in at least one league I am not looking for much production this year till after the ASB. For that league he is more of a stash for next year if he retains the catcher position. Just not expecting all that much but really want to believe.

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