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Charlie Morton 2017 Outlook

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Charlie Morton on Sirius XM when he was asked if he can explain what he's doing this year to be more successful... "Nope".

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He actually elaborated...  

 

Said he changed his workout and lost some weight that he thinks has helped him throw better.  His pitching coach called him in the film room one day and told him he needed to throw his curveball more.  So in 2016 (I think) he threw it more, had some success, then got hurt. Now he's throwing his curveball & cutter more and which has helped him get lefties out more, which he said was his problem.  Now he's "figured out lefties" and righties seem to be hitting him better this year...so he's figuring that out now.    

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7 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Now he's throwing his curveball & cutter more and which has helped him get lefties out more, which he said was his problem.  Now he's "figured out lefties" and righties seem to be hitting him better this year...so he's figuring that out now.    

 

In his four seasons with 20+ starts, righties never had an OPS higher than .698 vs him. Three of those years they were .633 or lower. If he keeps even 70% of the gains he's made vs lefties so far this year, and combines that with previous success vs righties, he's going to be right in the SP2 territory. He's been prettty close to multiple gems this year. If I didn't own him, I'd hope for a "same old Charlie Morton" owner and be looking to pry him away. 

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40 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

He actually elaborated...  

 

Said he changed his workout and lost some weight that he thinks has helped him throw better.  His pitching coach called him in the film room one day and told him he needed to throw his curveball more.  So in 2016 (I think) he threw it more, had some success, then got hurt. Now he's throwing his curveball & cutter more and which has helped him get lefties out more, which he said was his problem.  Now he's "figured out lefties" and righties seem to be hitting him better this year...so he's figuring that out now.    

 

 

Did he mention anything about weighted balls?

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28 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

In his four seasons with 20+ starts, righties never had an OPS higher than .698 vs him. Three of those years they were .633 or lower. If he keeps even 70% of the gains he's made vs lefties so far this year, and combines that with previous success vs righties, he's going to be right in the SP2 territory. He's been prettty close to multiple gems this year. If I didn't own him, I'd hope for a "same old Charlie Morton" owner and be looking to pry him away. 

 

 

With that said, when do you think the appropriate time to sell would be? Who knows if he can stay healthy, but I'm at least a little worried

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It's a very un-sabermetric position to take, but at what point do you just say he's the same old Charlie Morton with a higher K rate?

 

That'a not a rhetorical question btw

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17 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

It's a very un-sabermetric position to take, but at what point do you just say he's the same old Charlie Morton with a higher K rate?

 

That'a not a rhetorical question btw

 

When people say the same old Charlie Morton, what does that even mean? You're comparing a guy who didn't miss anywhere near as many bats with a guy that misses a lot of bats... But anyway.... 

 

In his prime years with the Pirates, 2013 and 2014, he had the following ERA/FIP/xFIP:

2013: 3.26/3.60/3.69

2014: 3.72/3.72/3.78

 

So he certainly has had some skills. 2015 was a bad year as his contact rates and home run rates went up. 2016 was then a lost year to injury. Even in all these years... He hasn't had a SIERA above 4.00 since 2012. Now he has figured out how to deal with lefties, and has increased his velocity. All the swinging strike and contact data shows he is better. So, even if he is somehow the "same old Charlie Morton" (whatever that means) with a lot of Ks... Sign me up. 

 

 

Edited by Random Dude
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He is literally the opposite of the old Charlie Morton. Velocity way up. K's way up. Killing LHBs. Struggling against RHBs. GB% down. FB% up. 

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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

He actually elaborated...  

 

Said he changed his workout and lost some weight that he thinks has helped him throw better.  His pitching coach called him in the film room one day and told him he needed to throw his curveball more.  So in 2016 (I think) he threw it more, had some success, then got hurt. Now he's throwing his curveball & cutter more and which has helped him get lefties out more, which he said was his problem.  Now he's "figured out lefties" and righties seem to be hitting him better this year...so he's figuring that out now.    

The percentages on the curve not a big difference far as usage going back to 2012 - 20-27% (depending on the year). I think the difference maker is the cutter. Morton used a cutter a little bit back in 2011, then stopped, started using it again in 2016. My guess is he goes to the cutter when guys get on base trying to get a ground ball, and of course going after lefties...

Edited by Z06vette

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1 hour ago, mpbaseball22 said:

 

 

With that said, when do you think the appropriate time to sell would be? Who knows if he can stay healthy, but I'm at least a little worried

 

What would you deal him for?  Guys like Morton can be a difference maker.  Is he really that much more injury prone than any other pitcher now?  I don't know if you'll get his worth now given the state of SP and that his name is Charlie Morton.  If he went to the courthouse in the offseason and changed his name to Jose Martinez people would be going bananas over him now 

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1 hour ago, Random Dude said:

 

When people say the same old Charlie Morton, what does that even mean?

 

 

For me it means:

 

4+ ERA

1.40 WHIP

 

What I'm getting at is, despite the marked improvement in the peripherals, is possibe he's still a high WHIP, high ERA guy?

 

 

Again, I realize how ridiculous it sounds.

Edited by My Dinner With Andre

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Strikeouts help pitchers be more effective. 10 K/9 is very good. 6 K/9 not so much. I will take new old Charlie over old old Charlie.

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Except that the pitch is not on the black, and it's not a strike. It clearly goes around the plate, and only when it the mitt, is in line with the "black". (pic)

But as long a the PU (plate umpire) is an idiot, or wants to go home early, it'll work.

 

C.Morton.JPG

Edited by JCD
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3 minutes ago, JCD said:

 

 

Except that the pitch is not on the black, and it's not a strike. It clearly goes around the plate, and only when it the mitt, is in line with the "black". (pic)

But as long a the PU (plate umpire) is an idiot, or wants to go home early, it'll work.

 

C.Morton.JPG

 

Was an awful call.

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2 hours ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

In his four seasons with 20+ starts, righties never had an OPS higher than .698 vs him. Three of those years they were .633 or lower. If he keeps even 70% of the gains he's made vs lefties so far this year, and combines that with previous success vs righties, he's going to be right in the SP2 territory. He's been prettty close to multiple gems this year. If I didn't own him, I'd hope for a "same old Charlie Morton" owner and be looking to pry him away. 

 

It's the pitch sequencing vs RHB, not the stuff.

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ESPN's camera over the plate showed it was really close, possibly on the black. If I remember correctly. In any case, it's a nasty pitch. 

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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

What would you deal him for?  Guys like Morton can be a difference maker.  Is he really that much more injury prone than any other pitcher now?  I don't know if you'll get his worth now given the state of SP and that his name is Charlie Morton.  If he went to the courthouse in the offseason and changed his name to Jose Martinez people would be going bananas over him now 

 

 

True. I'm still worried about the injury history but I doubt anyone would be willing to trade anything close to his value 

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9 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

What would you deal him for?  Guys like Morton can be a difference maker.  Is he really that much more injury prone than any other pitcher now?  I don't know if you'll get his worth now given the state of SP and that his name is Charlie Morton.  If he went to the courthouse in the offseason and changed his name to Jose Martinez people would be going bananas over him now 

 

Ah yes, Jose Martinez, the latest Cuban pitching import. I hear he touches 99 and has a wicked curveball.

 

Seriously though, he seems really close to putting it all together.

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On 5/16/2017 at 0:49 PM, JCD said:

 

 

Except that the pitch is not on the black, and it's not a strike. It clearly goes around the plate, and only when it the mitt, is in line with the "black". (pic)

But as long a the PU (plate umpire) is an idiot, or wants to go home early, it'll work.

 

C.Morton.JPG

 

Yes, because umpires never call pitches like that a strike [insert rolleyes emoji here]. You write as if that ball was 2 feet off the plate and a horrid call. It missed the black, but not by much. And I've seen umps be far more liberal in their strike-zone distinction for entire games, much less the one pitch you decided to harp on. 

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34 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Yes, because umpires never call pitches like that a strike [insert rolleyes emoji here]. You write as if that ball was 2 feet off the plate and a horrid call. It missed the black, but not by much. And I've seen umps be far more liberal in their strike-zone distinction for entire games, much less the one pitch you decided to harp on. 

 

The twitter guy said it was on the black. It wasn't. Roll your eyes whatver you want, it won't make it right.

 

I did not write like that.

And a bad call is a bad call. Period. If you think a bad call is a horrid call, thats on you.

 

I've seen a lot worse, and you can roll your eyes whatver you want, that should not make an other mistake acceptable.

An umpire should not be liberal with THE strikezone in the MLB.

And even if that is hard to see, a Major League umpire should know, if the ball enters the catcher's glove in line with the black, and ball was breaking from the outside, especially that much, it could not have been a strike.

Calling that a strike is a mistake.

Tweeting that it was, when the video in the tweet clearly shows it was not, is stupid.

 

Edited by JCD

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5 minutes ago, JCD said:

 

The twitter guy said it was on the black. It wasn't. Roll your eyes whatver you want, it won't make it right.

 

I did not write like that.

And a bad call is a bad call. Period. If you think a bad call is a horrid call, thats on you.

 

I've seen a lot worse, and you can roll your eyes whatver you want, that should not make an other mistake acceptable.

An umpire should not be liberal with THE strikezone in the MLB.

And even if that is hard to see, a Major League umpire should know, if the ball enters the catcher's glove in line with the black, and ball was breaking from the outside, especially that much, it could not have been a strike.

Calling that a strike is a mistake.

Tweeting that it was, when the video in the tweet clearly shows it was not, is stupid.

 

 

Oh my gosh can we stop whining about whether one pitch was a strike or not. He threw a 99mph fastball with movement. That's all I wanted to portray. That this isn't "the same old Charlie Morton". 

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11 minutes ago, JCD said:

 

The twitter guy said it was on the black. It wasn't. Roll your eyes whatver you want, it won't make it right.

 

I did not write like that.

And a bad call is a bad call. Period. If you think a bad call is a horrid call, thats on you.

 

I've seen a lot worse, and you can roll your eyes whatver you want, that should not make an other mistake acceptable.

An umpire should not be liberal with THE strikezone in the MLB.

And even if that is hard to see, a Major League umpire should know, if the ball enters the catcher's glove in line with the black, and ball was breaking from the outside, especially that much, it could not have been a strike.

Calling that a strike is a mistake.

Tweeting that it was, when the video in the tweet clearly shows it was not, is stupid.

 

 

You have some pie-in-the-sky ideals when it comes to umpiring. I agree that there should be a strike zone and every umpire should adhere said strike zone, especially inside-outside. We're brain-waving there. I just think it's an unrealistic to get upset when you see a ball that's a couple of inches off the plate called a strike. Greg Maddux got away with worse than the pitch you posted every five days for much of his career. As far as bad calls go, the pitch you posted really isn't that bad. Did it hit the black? No...I even said as much. But you can't get upset at that being called a strike...few Major Leaguers and few Major League managers would be upset with that call. And to post the tweet as if some injustice was done doesn't make sense to me. I get the guy who posted it said it was on the black. But I just don't see that the call or the tweet as being egregious enough to post it in this forum. 

Edited by Flyman75

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