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Charlie Morton 2017 Outlook

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6 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

Looking at his last few starts prior to the d/l, im trying to find the appeal.  Can someone market him to me?  Because he's available and i wanna pick him up.

 

He's got a borderline elite K/9 for a SP (would fall between Greinke and C-Mart at #11 if he had enough IP to qualify), and FIP and xFIP like him to be 'better' than his ERA indicates so far.  Hitters have a .325 BABIP against him and an 18.4% HR/FB rate, both of which seem unsustainable.  If he is closer to a 3.50 ERA like his xFIP would indicate, and he has a 10 K/9 and the W's that should come with pitching on a top team, then you could have yourself a very good pitcher ROS.

 

I'm not 100% sold on him but depending on league/roster size/scoring cats he's definitely worth a look.

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2 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

He's got a borderline elite K/9 for a SP (would fall between Greinke and C-Mart at #11 if he had enough IP to qualify), and FIP and xFIP like him to be 'better' than his ERA indicates so far.  Hitters have a .325 BABIP against him and an 18.4% HR/FB rate, both of which seem unsustainable.  If he is closer to a 3.50 ERA like his xFIP would indicate, and he has a 10 K/9 and the W's that should come with pitching on a top team, then you could have yourself a very good pitcher ROS.

 

I'm not 100% sold on him but depending on league/roster size/scoring cats he's definitely worth a look.

good stuff man.  thanks.  given the state of pitching this year, I guess i could do worse

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I gotta figure out what to do with Morton when he's activated. 

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His production never seems to match his ability. Part of the inability to stay healthy, but he also can't go deep in games. His ERA the third time through the lineup is 10.70. In the fifth inning, his ERA is 11.70. In the sixth, it is 7.94. He only made it to the seventh inning twice in 10 starts so far this year. He seemed to be making progress on that front when he got hurt.

 

I love the stuff. He throws very hard. Even the average velocity of his sinker is up to 96 MPH this year and he's got an excellent curveball. He just can't seem to put all the pieces together and at 33, he's a bit old to expect a breakout. What he did the first 10 starts might be the best we ever see from Morton, but that's just fine for the back of a rotation. 

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Anyone bold enough to start right away today? 

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7 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

Anyone bold enough to start right away today? 

I'll be starting him, but I'm punting saves so hoping for a W and some strikeouts. 

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17 minutes ago, rrrich46 said:

I would have but he was locked out. How's he looking ?

 

He was still looking real strong after 6 and close to 100 pitches.I'm sure he's done for the night butI sw itched over to the homerfests.

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Just looking at the box score, that was a solid first outing off the DL. Seems like enough to use him next week, depending on your roster and matchups, of course. 

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Does Peacock go to bullpen with Morton/Keuchel/Lance ready to rock roll after break.

Musgrove get bumped?  

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My guess is that musgrove gets bumped when Keuchel returns. McHugh is returning soon too so that will even further complicate things. If Peacock can continue pitching the way he has been then it's hard to see him getting taken out of the rotation.

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11 hours ago, Csiebert5 said:

My guess is that musgrove gets bumped when Keuchel returns. McHugh is returning soon too so that will even further complicate things. If Peacock can continue pitching the way he has been then it's hard to see him getting taken out of the rotation.

 

fiers has pretty much been their best starter over the past month, though, so it's hard to see him going anywhere either

 

everyone keeps talking about the astros trading for SP but honestly they seem like they're in pretty good shape to me. (same with the dodgers, actually)

 

peacock gets a lot of Ks but tends to have short-ish outings and give up too many baserunners, so i can see them bumping him back into the actual devenski role even though he's performing pretty well, now that devenski himself has evolved into more of a traditional setup guy

 

re: morton, hey, maybe pulling that lat muscle has cured his one-bad-inning problem

 

(probably not though)

 

 

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26 minutes ago, wily mo said:

 

fiers has pretty much been their best starter over the past month, though, so it's hard to see him going anywhere either

 

everyone keeps talking about the astros trading for SP but honestly they seem like they're in pretty good shape to me. (same with the dodgers, actually)

 

peacock gets a lot of Ks but tends to have short-ish outings and give up too many baserunners, so i can see them bumping him back into the actual devenski role even though he's performing pretty well, now that devenski himself has evolved into more of a traditional setup guy

 

re: morton, hey, maybe pulling that lat muscle has cured his one-bad-inning problem

 

(probably not though)

 

 

 

Very true. Fiers has actually turned it around lately. Either way it is a good problem to have for the Astros. And I agree, they really don't need to trade for a starter. Hell, what do they need? Deep bullpen, deep lineup, deep rotation. They are the AL version of the Dodgers. 

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11 hours ago, Csiebert5 said:

My guess is that musgrove gets bumped when Keuchel returns. McHugh is returning soon too so that will even further complicate things. If Peacock can continue pitching the way he has been then it's hard to see him getting taken out of the rotation.

 

Kecuhel McCullers Morton are the only locks imo. I can't see Fiers losing his spot right now, and I'd imagine they give McHugh a shot. I think Peacock needs to come up BIG his next few starts to change that thinking. As mentioned, his outings have been pretty short for the most part. 

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11 hours ago, Red Sox Nation said:

Didn't have a chance to watch.. was he pumping pre-injury velo? 

 

I see it was down a little from pre-injury, but still right around 95-95.5 mph. That'll play.

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28 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

I see it was down a little from pre-injury, but still right around 95-95.5 mph. That'll play.

 

yeah, his velo was down a little and he didn't get the Ks, but he also didn't have the blowup. probably just a short-term rehab type thing but honestly i'll take the tradeoff

 

 

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The Charlie Morton apologist in me must note that he gave up 3 infield singles today, which kinda screwed him. He didn't pitch that bad. Been pretty much the same Charlie Morton since coming back from injuries. Not so pretty ERA, great BAA, great k's, good wins, bad walks, and overall thinking he should be better. There's always next week! 

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