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Ezekiel Elliott 2017 Season Outlook

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5 minutes ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

 

If he's suspended 3 games, he's out of the first round for me.

 

 3 game suspension would be unwarranted for an issue where there was no crime committed or prosecuted.  The only reason the league would suspend him is because they would want to "set the tone" given all of the public outcry over the way handled similar domestic violence issues. plus zeke has not helped himself as being a clean character since, that video tape of him pulling a girls top down in public is prob sitting in the back of officials minds.

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51 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

Schefter trying to get a leg up on his leaguemates :ph34r:

 

 

Definitely a possibility. 

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I'm ready to get chewed out by Cowboy fans...

 

Out of the players going in the top 4 or 5 Elliot has the biggest chance to not deliver near his value.

 

First off, if things go south running the ball he doesn't have the receiving game to lean on. I know people say well he can have it but he didn't and coach speak is irrelevant.

 

Second off, watching DJ and Bell play last year was mesmerizing. I can't say the same for Elliot. His line was incredible that often times he would just brush off a tackle or run through a hole and be free for double digit yards.

 

Don't get me wrong I'm not saying in any way not to draft him or he will be a bust. Elliot is a clear cut #3 in standard. However, with the lack of work as a receiver and decline in the line he has the biggest chance to drop off in production semi drastically from the 3 RBs and possibly a few WRs.

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42 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I'm ready to get chewed out by Cowboy fans...

 

Out of the players going in the top 4 or 5 Elliot has the biggest chance to not deliver near his value.

 

First off, if things go south running the ball he doesn't have the receiving game to lean on. I know people say well he can have it but he didn't and coach speak is irrelevant.

 

Second off, watching DJ and Bell play last year was mesmerizing. I can't say the same for Elliot. His line was incredible that often times he would just brush off a tackle or run through a hole and be free for double digit yards.

 

Don't get me wrong I'm not saying in any way not to draft him or he will be a bust. Elliot is a clear cut #3 in standard. However, with the lack of work as a receiver and decline in the line he has the biggest chance to drop off in production semi drastically from the 3 RBs and possibly a few WRs.

 

No reason he shouldn't get 40 catches this year.   He's an excellent receiver.  No,  he doesn't have the split out and run patterns from the slot ability of the other two but he's an excellent receiving back. 

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3 hours ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

 

If he's suspended 3 games, he's out of the first round for me.

 

Are we forgetting last season when owners faded Le'Veon Bell due to his suspension?

 

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40 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

Are we forgetting last season when owners faded Le'Veon Bell due to his suspension?

 

 

How about 2 years ago when owners faded Bell due to his suspension. How did that work out? 

 

People have such short memories. 

 

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9 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

How about 2 years ago when owners faded Bell due to his suspension. How did that work out? 

 

People have such short memories. 

 

 

You mean when he suffered a season ending injury? What does that have to do with discounting a player due to a suspension they're serving to start the season?

 

How does one spend so much time here, make such an off-base retort, and then finish it with a tag that indicates you think you owned the user to whom you were responding?

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1 minute ago, disasterisk said:

 

You mean when he suffered a season ending injury? What does that have to do with discounting a player due to a suspension they're serving to start the season?

 

How does one spend so much time here, make such an off-base retort, and then finish it with a tag that indicates you think you owned the user to whom you were responding?

 

Because if you're betting on a suspended player to produce a top season, you're going to be wrong WAY MORE than you're right (especially for someone like Bell who is coming off his third straight season requiring surgery for a season-ending injury). Especially if they're requiring a 1st or 2nd rd ADP like Zeke will. 

 

Your team, your consequences. Don't say you weren't warned. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Because if you're betting on a suspended player to produce a top season, you're going to be wrong WAY MORE than you're right

 

 

Unless you have the data to back that up, its an unsubstantiated claim. Besides, an elite player coming off a suspension and producing fantasy points is something that one would want to look at on a case-by-case basis since the circumstances that warrant a suspension and the risk of another suspension vary considerably from player to player.

 

In this instance your argument "but but but Le'Veon Bell got injured in 2015 after he was suspended so therefore drafters were correct to downgrade him in the draft" is irrelevant in its application to the case of Ezekiel Elliott since Elliott does not have a history of injuries and they therefore should not be viewed as compounding risk.

 

Instead of worrying about whether Ezekiel Elliott will be on top of the RB leaderboard at the end of the season, you should be more concerned with whether he can actually put up strong RB1 numbers of a week-by-week basis when he returns, because those are not the same thing. Assuming the player stays healthy (a condition that forum users should not need to spell out for you when making statements in regards to performance projections), if its reasonable to assume that Elliott will perform as an elite RB1 when he returns from his suspension, then said suspension is not enough to warrant a drop to the 2nd round in a fantasy draft.

 

You aren't taking automatic zeroes for the weeks the player is suspended; those aren't automatic losses. If you care enough about fantasy football to post in an online forum about it, you should be confident in your abilities to win a match-up despite the fact that your superstar player is riding the pine that week.

 

5 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Your team, your consequences. Don't say you weren't warned. 

 

 

No doubt a sentiment you shared last season in the Bell thread before he dominated the regular season and scored 40-10-23 (.5 PPR, your mileage may vary) in the fantasy playoffs.

 

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I gave you the breadcrumbs...I leave it to you to do the work if you're really interested. The track record of players starting a season on suspension are horrendous. For every 2013 Josh Gordon and 2016 Bell there are ten 2014 Ray Rice, 2014 Josh Gordon, 2015 Bell and 2016 Josh Gordon situations. Good luck.

 

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18 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

I gave you the breadcrumbs...I leave it to you to do the work if you're really interested. The track record of players starting a season on suspension are horrendous. For every 2013 Josh Gordon and 2016 Bell there are ten 2014 Ray Rice, 2014 Josh Gordon, 2015 Bell and 2016 Josh Gordon situations. Good luck.

 

 

Translation: I'll throw out an unsubstantiated claim and use anecdotal evidence to make my point while telling my audience it's their responsibility to carry the water. 

 

You are comparing Zeke's case to cases of players where injury history and known habitual drug use are compounding factors when determining risk. This makes the track record of other players returning from suspension and performing irrelevant to this specific case. To apply the collective track record to this single case is misguided. 

 

If you want to point out that it is possible, even likely, that Zeke has used drugs (or is even currently in the NFL drug program), and therefore we have a compounding factor that would dictate he should be avoided in drafts at his top 5 ADP I have no issue with that logic. But simply stating that he should be avoided because of the track record of previously suspended players returning from suspension is dumb.  

 

If you want to use Ray Rice as example because of domestic violence being the common denominator then explain how the two cases are alike to the point that a similar outcome can be expected; wherein not only does Zeke incur a suspension for a few games but is then punished again for the same infraction and sees his entire season forfeited.

 

Or perhaps you are simply concerned with the rate of recidivism for offenders guilty of pulling down girls' tops. Is Zeke a serial sharker, Joshua? 

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4 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I'm ready to get chewed out by Cowboy fans...

 

Out of the players going in the top 4 or 5 Elliot has the biggest chance to not deliver near his value.

 

First off, if things go south running the ball he doesn't have the receiving game to lean on. I know people say well he can have it but he didn't and coach speak is irrelevant.

 

Second off, watching DJ and Bell play last year was mesmerizing. I can't say the same for Elliot. His line was incredible that often times he would just brush off a tackle or run through a hole and be free for double digit yards.

 

Don't get me wrong I'm not saying in any way not to draft him or he will be a bust. Elliot is a clear cut #3 in standard. However, with the lack of work as a receiver and decline in the line he has the biggest chance to drop off in production semi drastically from the 3 RBs and possibly a few WRs.

I think that because of Dallas' O-Line, Elliot has a greater chance than most to deliver at his value. And his receiving game was just fine, I didn't see any flaws in it last year whatsoever.

If I were a betting man, (and I am), I'd say clear cut TOP 3....probably Top 2 just behind DJ. No dropping off for Elliot, mark my words.

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There will be no drop off. Elliot is my number one ranked RB this year. If he gets suspended obviously that changes, but there really isn't much to see here. He did amazing for a rookie and left  a few games where he can improve. If you are lucky enough to have a top 3 pick consider yourself lucky. 

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1 hour ago, disasterisk said:

 

Translation: I'll throw out an unsubstantiated claim and use anecdotal evidence to make my point while telling my audience it's their responsibility to carry the water. 

 

You are comparing Zeke's case to cases of players where injury history and known habitual drug use are compounding factors when determining risk. This makes the track record of other players returning from suspension and performing irrelevant to this specific case. To apply the collective track record to this single case is misguided. 

 

If you want to point out that it is possible, even likely, that Zeke has used drugs (or is even currently in the NFL drug program), and therefore we have a compounding factor that would dictate he should be avoided in drafts at his top 5 ADP I have no issue with that logic. But simply stating that he should be avoided because of the track record of previously suspended players returning from suspension is dumb.  

 

If you want to use Ray Rice as example because of domestic violence being the common denominator then explain how the two cases are alike to the point that a similar outcome can be expected; wherein not only does Zeke incur a suspension for a few games but is then punished again for the same infraction and sees his entire season forfeited.

 

Or perhaps you are simply concerned with the rate of recidivism for offenders guilty of pulling down girls' tops. Is Zeke a serial sharker, Joshua? 

 

Translation: you're too lazy to actually perform or look up the research on this topic and instead resort to namecalling. There is a great series on Rotoviz about this very topic, FYI. Look into it and become better educated, or remain ignorant. Your choice. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Gohawks said:

 

First off, if things go south running the ball he doesn't have the receiving game to lean on. I know people say well he can have it but he didn't and coach speak is irrelevant.

 

Second off, watching DJ and Bell play last year was mesmerizing. I can't say the same for Elliot. His line was incredible that often times he would just brush off a tackle or run through a hole and be free for double digit yards.

 

1) Dunbar is gone. That's enough for me to not worry about it anymore. With the strong offenses in that division I'm expecting some more shootouts. That means more catches and more open space for Zeke to put his elite speed to work. 

 

2) Zeke is a better pure runner than either DJ or Bell. It's so smooth you can't even tell. DJ will bust tackles or run a deep out route - yes, impressive. Bell will hop and cut and fall forward for 6 yards a pop. Mesmerizing is a good way to put it.  But Zeke has more speed than either, and raw athletic ability. He was a state champion hurdler in high school. It just looks so smooth and refined that it doesn't stand out as much. 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Translation: you're too lazy to actually perform or look up the research on this topic and instead resort to namecalling. There is a great series on Rotoviz about this very topic, FYI. Look into it and become better educated, or remain ignorant. Your choice. 

 

 

 

There is no research for me to conduct because I did not make the argument that Zeke is unworthy of his ADP if suspended,  because history shows that a majority of players suspended have not performed upon their return. That is your assertion, it's on you to support your position with evidence. Simply stating previous instances of players failing to perform post-suspension doesn't cut it. How are they connected?  

 

After you address that, quote the part of my post where I called you names. 

 

Also, Rotoviz has a responsibility to regularly generate content in order to drive revenue. They also take every position possible on every player possible. So whatever article you are referring to that suggests Zeke should be faded no doubt has a partner article declaring him a must draft because his perceived value will drop due to a potential suspension and performance decrease upon his return. Since you can't explain why previous instances of suspended players serve as an indicator/predictor of Zeke's inability to perform post-suspension I'm guessing the writer at Rotoviz couldn't either. 

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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

1) Dunbar is gone. That's enough for me to not worry about it anymore. With the strong offenses in that division I'm expecting some more shootouts. That means more catches and more open space for Zeke to put his elite speed to work. 

 

2) Zeke is a better pure runner than either DJ or Bell. It's so smooth you can't even tell. DJ will bust tackles or run a deep out route - yes, impressive. Bell will hop and cut and fall forward for 6 yards a pop. Mesmerizing is a good way to put it.  But Zeke has more speed than either, and raw athletic ability. He was a state champion hurdler in high school. It just looks so smooth and refined that it doesn't stand out as much. 

"Lord_Varys speaks the truth. With help from his little birds."

-Tyrion Lanister

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18 hours ago, disasterisk said:

 

Are we forgetting last season when owners faded Le'Veon Bell due to his suspension?

 

 

The two situations are not comparable as its not just due to suspension. As I stated earlier in the thread, Elliott is the most O-line dependent RB "star" in the NFL. He was already down in my rankings (top 10, but not top 3) because he's no longer going to have those gaping holes to run through due to personnel changes up front. Now add to it that he may miss 3 games and he drops to the 2nd round.

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If he's suspended more than 2 games, I think he drops beneath Brown and Julio for me. Otherwise, I really don't care too much.

 

Suspended players have risk beyond just the games already missed. If can affect preparation and conditioning, but I expect Elliott to be in shape. It can provide an avenue for the team to reduce a player's role, but that's simply not happening in this case.

 

This is a lot more like the Bell or even Brady suspensions than it is like your average start-of-season suspension.

 

 

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Saying Zeke is O-Line dependant is crazy he can take on LBs head on and make them miss in space. They still have their best 3 lineman from last season. 

 

He is top 5 not suspended and I wouldn't drop him out of the top 7 even if he is suspended. I'll sacrifice a couple early games or rely on good drafting to make up the void to have one of the best backs in the game during the fantasy playoffs.

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13 minutes ago, DirtyBoys said:

Saying Zeke is O-Line dependant is crazy he can take on LBs head on and make them miss in space. They still have their best 3 lineman from last season. 

 

He is top 5 not suspended and I wouldn't drop him out of the top 7 even if he is suspended. I'll sacrifice a couple early games or rely on good drafting to make up the void to have one of the best backs in the game during the fantasy playoffs.

No one thinks he is dependent on the line. However, his line is not as nearly as good as last year which can mean a slight drop off in performance. 

 

If he is suspended I'd put him behind Brown in standard and that's a maybe. I still might pull the trigger at #3. 

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

No one thinks he is dependent on the line. However, his line is not as nearly as good as last year which can mean a slight drop off in performance. 

 

If he is suspended I'd put him behind Brown in standard and that's a maybe. I still might pull the trigger at #3. 

 

9 hours ago, dabeesta17 said:

As I stated earlier in the thread, Elliott is the most O-line dependent RB "star" in the NFL.

Sorry I should've added the quote and I would as well. I had the 1st overall pick in 2015 in a first draft keeper league and still picked Bell.

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1 hour ago, DirtyBoys said:

 

Sorry I should've added the quote and I would as well. I had the 1st overall pick in 2015 in a first draft keeper league and still picked Bell.

 

RB with the first pick in a dynasty is pretty shortsighted. Whoever got to steal ODB is thanking you for that one. 

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