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Ezekiel Elliott 2017 Season Outlook

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6 minutes ago, Trifecta said:

 

Because the idea of a reduced suspension has no precedent or logic.  Either the suspension is legit, or it isn't.  This whole idea that the NFL will just say, "well we messed up but you still gotta serve 4 games" is not something I would consider a realistic possibility.

 

What are you talking about? Henderson reduced Greg Hardy's suspension from 10 games to 4. 


Can we keep this thread grounded in facts and not people's uneducated opinion cloaked in expert advice to other posters? 

 

Here is a link to the 2015 ruling:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000500985/article/greg-hardy-suspension-reduced-to-four-games

Edited by wideopen21

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5 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

There are pictures of her bruises that she sent to her mom on the night she was with him and the police showed up. And those pics have been been authenticated.

So to believe he's innocent would mean you'd need to drink the kool aid of thinking she somehow faked the pics and fooled the authenticators, which is fine if you have that kind of taste for kool aid.

Personally, I'd rather just go with one of the other first/second rounds that is just as good as Elliott, if not better.

 

 

The bruises were authenticated.   Not who caused them

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4 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

There are pictures of her bruises that she sent to her mom on the night she was with him and the police showed up. And those pics have been been authenticated.

So to believe he's innocent would mean you'd need to drink the kool aid of thinking she somehow faked the pics and fooled the authenticators, which is fine if you have that kind of taste for kool aid.

Personally, I'd rather just go with one of the other first/second rounds that is just as good as Elliott, if not better.

 

If you know someone who is a 2000 total yard, 12-15 td potential guy outside the top 12, let me know.

 

Best situation in the league meets best talent in the league. Zeke is part of the three most elite assets in the game.

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10 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Really?

I mean what first round pick could anyone possibly have made that would make them feel any jealousy at all? It's a joke to take this kind of risk on Elliott when there are so many other options that are just as good.

It's just a joke man, relax 

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On 8/22/2017 at 11:30 AM, Chwf3rd said:

I'm having a hard time passing on him on the 2/3 turn picking at 1.02.  I'll take guys like Amari/TY/Cooks/Baldwin/Gronk over him but it's very difficult to pass on Zeke if that group is gone.

 

Given what the public now knows, I think six games  is off the table either because of the arbitrator or the pending lawsuit.

 

I think zero is a potential, at least for this year, as it sounds like the league has bungled this enough for a judge to consider an injunction or stay.

 

Soooooo..... if I'm the league and and I want to save face, I probably go to Zeke's team and offer a reduced suspension in return for a guarantee of no lawsuit.  2-3 games.  Now it's entirely possible that Zeke doesn't take the offer...... 

 

Just a hypothesis.

Edited by cothane

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1 minute ago, cothane said:

 

Given what the public now knows, I think six games  is off the table either because of the arbitrator or the pending lawsuit.

 

I think zero is a potential, at least for this year, as it sounds like the league has bungled this enough for a judge to consider an injunction or stay.

 

Soooooo..... if I'm the league and and I want to save face, I probably go to Zeke's team and offer a reduced suspension in return for a guarantee of no lawsuit.  2-3 games.  Now it's entirely possible that Zeke doesn't take the offer...... 

 

Just a hypothesis.

 

Why would an innocent man accept any suspension?

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1 minute ago, Cdub2k said:

 

Why would an innocent man accept any suspension?

 

Because the CBA gives Goodell the power to do whatever he wants. So if he doesn't accept it, and Henderson doesn't reduce/eliminate it, he is facing 6 games out. 

It's like when an innocent person pleads guilty to a lesser crime when faced with a 50 year prison sentence if he goes to trial.

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22 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Really?

I mean what first round pick could anyone possibly have made that would make them feel any jealousy at all? It's a joke to take this kind of risk on Elliott when there are so many other options that are just as good.

 

17 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Personally, I'd rather just go with one of the other first/second rounds that is just as good as Elliott, if not better.

Obviously as you say, you are not a Zeke owner.  Likely a jealous non-Zeke owner.

 

Depending on league size and keeper settings, it's possible that if you were drafting at the end of the first that you could have been looking at Jordan Howard or Jay Ajayi as your first pick.  Really?  You'd rather have Jordan Howard or Ajayi than Zeke?  BWAHAHAHA...

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3 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Really?

I mean what first round pick could anyone possibly have made that would make them feel any jealousy at all? It's a joke to take this kind of risk on Elliott when there are so many other options that are just as good.

 

I'm not a "zeke guy" necessairily, but I did draft him this year because of the steep discount (I got him for $35 in an auction draft where Brown, DJ and Leveon went for between $70-75).

 

I think suspended players at the beginning of the year are one of the biggest market inefficiencies in fantasy leagues with typical playoff structures. Here's my case:

 

For the sake of simplicity I'm going to assume an 8 team league with 4 teams making the playoffs. I’m also assuming that your ONLY goal is to win the championship.
Most authors (no source, sorry) discount Elliott based on the total loss of production, without considering whether the lost production will be regular season or playoff production. So the assumption is that there are 15 games in the fantasy season per player (reg. + playoffs), and if Zeke misses 6 of them then he’s missing 40% of his chances to contribute value, so his draft price should be discounted by 40%. So if he should’ve been a $70 player without the suspension then he should be a $42 player with the suspension ($70 *.6).

 

However, this ignores that all the first 13 player games of the season do is eliminate 50% of the teams (from 8 to 4). The semis also eliminate 50% of the teams (from 4 to 2) and the finals eliminate 50% of the teams as well (from 2 to 1). So essentially the value a player contributes in games 1-13 is equal to the value they contribute in game 14 which is equal to the value they contribute in game 15. So a player’s actual value is 1/3 games 1-13, 1/3 game 14, and 1/3 game 15.

 

Let’s rerun the numbers based on my theory and assuming that the 6 missed games will fall in the regular season and not the fantasy playoffs (this is my ONLY concern as a zeke owner tbh). So if his value without missed games is $70, this can be divided into thirds so $23.3 of value for the regular season, $23.3 of value for the semis, and $23.3 of value for the finals. Since he’ll miss 6 out of the 13 regular season games, we can only give him value for 7 out of the 13 regular season games and $23.3 * (7/13) = $12.5. So adding it up again we’ve got $12.5 in value for the regular season, $23.3 for the semis, and $23.3 for the finals which adds up to a player who should go for $59.1 if his no suspension price would be $70, which is a MUCH smaller discount than is realized in any draft.

 

Caveats:
1. Coming in 2nd place often wins money, which would help throw more value towards the regular season.
2. Leagues where 6 teams make the playoffs with the top 2 getting byes also puts more value toward the regular season as you get a chance to skip a round.
3. This is a high variance strategy which will result in missing the playoffs more frequently.
4. Delayed gratification is not the easiest thing in the world, so it makes sense that people would be biased against it partially leading to the market inefficiency.

 

The numbers I used are just examples, but you get what I mean.

 

Now tell me I suck and I’m wrong.
 

 

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15 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Actually you can't be wrong about the facts. And the pics, police calls/vists, etc. are all facts and neither side even denies.

He could avoid suspension despite those facts. But they're still facts.

 

Heres a fact: he was never found guilty of a crime.

 

yet here we are thanks to Goodell and his inept squad of goons.

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1 minute ago, brosephd said:

if he gets reduced or none, people who got him 3rd round pretty much going to the ship. 

 

I like it - putting that subtle jinx in. 

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1 hour ago, TheDoctor said:

didn't Brady already go after the NFL in court trying to sue them on the grounds that their appeal's policy is bogus?

 

I'm no expert and not sure if this has been answered already, but I believe the cases are different.

 

Brady sued saying Goodell didn't have the power to suspend him.  Court said 'yes he does'.  Precedent set.

 

Zeke is suing saying NFL violated its internal procedures which resulted in damages to him; or that the procedures were not fair.  Basically like a wrongful termination lawsuit.  You can grant the argument that the NFL has the authority to suspend you, but then still argue that they are exercising their authority in error.  For example, lead investigator (the only person who talked to the accuser) recommended no suspension but wasn't allowed to input those findings to the panel.

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11 minutes ago, 1st DownSyndrome said:

 

Heres a fact: he was never found guilty of a crime.

 

Just to play devil's advocate, not being charged doesn't mean he was objectively innocent. Famous people also have a tendency to be treated more leniently by the justice system. 

 

Anyway, it's established that the NFL is free to choose a lesser standard of proof than "beyond a reasonable doubt." 

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39 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

There are pictures of her bruises that she sent to her mom on the night she was with him and the police showed up. And those pics have been been authenticated.

 

Actually the photos have been proven to be taken outside of the timeline of events that she claimed.

 

Like...  I fall down the stairs on Monday, and take photos of the bruises.  I go on a private date with my spouse on Wednesday, where he tells me he wants a divorce.  I put the photos on Instagram Wednesday night saying that it was my spouse.

 

Maybe I didn't actually fall down the stairs on Monday, and it actually was spousal abuse.  But the fact that we know that she lied about the timeline is enough for any reasonable person to throw the photos out insofar as it concerns Legal or League Discipline of Zeke.  You can still believe Zeke laid hands on her and that's fine.  

 

But you cannot tell us that the photos have been authenticated.  It's exactly the opposite.

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21 minutes ago, diverz4 said:

 

I'm not a "zeke guy" necessairily, but I did draft him this year because of the steep discount (I got him for $35 in an auction draft where Brown, DJ and Leveon went for between $70-75).

 

I think suspended players at the beginning of the year are one of the biggest market inefficiencies in fantasy leagues with typical playoff structures. Here's my case:

 

For the sake of simplicity I'm going to assume an 8 team league with 4 teams making the playoffs. I’m also assuming that your ONLY goal is to win the championship.
Most authors (no source, sorry) discount Elliott based on the total loss of production, without considering whether the lost production will be regular season or playoff production. So the assumption is that there are 15 games in the fantasy season per player (reg. + playoffs), and if Zeke misses 6 of them then he’s missing 40% of his chances to contribute value, so his draft price should be discounted by 40%. So if he should’ve been a $70 player without the suspension then he should be a $42 player with the suspension ($70 *.6).

 

However, this ignores that all the first 13 player games of the season do is eliminate 50% of the teams (from 8 to 4). The semis also eliminate 50% of the teams (from 4 to 2) and the finals eliminate 50% of the teams as well (from 2 to 1). So essentially the value a player contributes in games 1-13 is equal to the value they contribute in game 14 which is equal to the value they contribute in game 15. So a player’s actual value is 1/3 games 1-13, 1/3 game 14, and 1/3 game 15.

 

Let’s rerun the numbers based on my theory and assuming that the 6 missed games will fall in the regular season and not the fantasy playoffs (this is my ONLY concern as a zeke owner tbh). So if his value without missed games is $70, this can be divided into thirds so $23.3 of value for the regular season, $23.3 of value for the semis, and $23.3 of value for the finals. Since he’ll miss 6 out of the 13 regular season games, we can only give him value for 7 out of the 13 regular season games and $23.3 * (7/13) = $12.5. So adding it up again we’ve got $12.5 in value for the regular season, $23.3 for the semis, and $23.3 for the finals which adds up to a player who should go for $59.1 if his no suspension price would be $70, which is a MUCH smaller discount than is realized in any draft.

 

Caveats:
1. Coming in 2nd place often wins money, which would help throw more value towards the regular season.
2. Leagues where 6 teams make the playoffs with the top 2 getting byes also puts more value toward the regular season as you get a chance to skip a round.
3. This is a high variance strategy which will result in missing the playoffs more frequently.
4. Delayed gratification is not the easiest thing in the world, so it makes sense that people would be biased against it partially leading to the market inefficiency.

 

The numbers I used are just examples, but you get what I mean.

 

Now tell me I suck and I’m wrong.
 

 

Nope not wrong. But you do have to view it through different lenses depending on format.   What's the cost and expected return on Zekes replacement in your lineup?    Well for an 8 team league it's both cheap and easy to acquire.  There's not as many byes the first part of the season and fewer injuries.  Less players rostered means a bountiful ww.  The dropoff will be more than manageable for a skilled player.  

 

Compare that with a 12 team league where only 4 make the playoffs.... complete 180 in how you have to view the first half season.   

Good post though....

Edited by Impreza178

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22 minutes ago, 1st DownSyndrome said:

 

Heres a fact: he was never found guilty of a crime.

 

yet here we are thanks to Goodell and his inept squad of goons.

 

We've been over this numerous numerous times. It doesn't matter if he was found guilty or not. NFL is a private organization. If they felt Zeke did something to damage their image they can suspend him. 

 

They do not need any sort of legal justification just like your employer can fire you without justification if you are an exempt employee.

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5 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

Anyway, it's established that the NFL is free to choose a lesser standard of proof than "beyond a reasonable doubt." 

 

And also why Zeke would be smart to take the reduction and move along.   You don't need any more events brought up and scrutinized, nor do you want the NFL spending any more time or resources trying to make an example of you. 

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14 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Brady sued saying Goodell didn't have the power to suspend him.  Court said 'yes he does'.  Precedent set.

 

Zeke is suing saying NFL violated its internal procedures which resulted in damages to him; or that the procedures were not fair.  Basically like a wrongful termination lawsuit.  You can grant the argument that the NFL has the authority to suspend you, but then still argue that they are exercising their authority in error.  For example, lead investigator (the only person who talked to the accuser) recommended no suspension but wasn't allowed to input those findings to the panel.

 

This is incorrect. Brady made many procedural arguments, some surely identical or similar to the ones Ezekial will raise. Off the top of my head, his strongest argument was that the NFL failed to provide him notice of developments in the investigation process. Zeke is raising that same issue. 

 

I believe there is a line of Supreme Court cases that set a highly deferential standard in labor disputes. The NFL has incredible latitude in making its rules, handling notice, giving the Commissioner absolute power, etc. I think you'd really have to see something egregious to have the arbitration award vacated. Whatever happened to Brady - and that process was handled terribly - was not egregious enough. If there was some active conspiracy to cover up the opinions of the lead investigator and direct evidence of bad faith, maybe Zeke wins. However, my guess is that the NFL will be found to be under no compulsion to have an investigator heard, nor be beholden to the investigator's professional opinion in making its decision. 

 

As far as precedent goes, the Brady matter will be persuasive as there will be an overlap in facts and it was a high profile case in which the judgement was reversed. Judges will be reluctant to make the same mistake. That said, it's value as legal precedent and whether it is a mandatory authority or not, will come down to where, geographically, the case is filed. A New York court will look at a NY case differently than a federal district court in Hawaii. 

Edited by Rainyy

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3 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

Just to play devil's advocate, not being charged doesn't mean he was objectively innocent. Famous people also have a tendency to be treated more leniently by the justice system. 

 

Anyway, it's established that the NFL is free to choose a lesser standard of proof than "beyond a reasonable doubt." 

 

Yeah I am aware. While technically speaking what you say is true, all my point was is there seems to be people on both sides of this argument that are just so adamant of guilt or innocence. None of us were there so we will never 100% know exactly what happened and because the evidence has holes in it and it CANT be proven beyond the shadow of a doubt we are just left to speculate. 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

This is incorrect. Brady made many procedural arguments, some surely identical or similar to the ones Ezekial will raise. Off the top of my head, his strongest argument was that the NFL failed to provide him notice of developments in the investigation process. Zeke is raising that same issue. 

 

Thanks for this. Like I said I am no expert. Lets hope the real ones figure it out soon.

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51 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Because the CBA gives Goodell the power to do whatever he wants. So if he doesn't accept it, and Henderson doesn't reduce/eliminate it, he is facing 6 games out. 

It's like when an innocent person pleads guilty to a lesser crime when faced with a 50 year prison sentence if he goes to trial.

 

Huh? I'd rather be a proclaimed innocent man fasely imprisioned than an innocent man who admits guilt for something he didn't do. Do men not have honor in their character any more?

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Got zeke @ 3.08 --- And I can put  bias aside and say the only justice here is  0 games or 6 games. I don't want him settling for reduced suspension...you can't be "a little guilty". Goodell needs to back off.

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