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Ezekiel Elliott 2017 Season Outlook

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10 hours ago, Rainyy said:

 

Tom Brady didn't get his suspension "delayed."He WON in court. The process dragged on so long because the NFL appealed and eventually had that decision reversed. 

 

Literally the only way Elliott serves a suspension in 2018 instead of 2017, is if he wins in court and then the Fifth Circuit reverses the decision. 

 

Note, winning is different from a preliminary injunction or TRO, which are temporary measures. We wouldn't know whether Zeke wins for 2-3 months, in the event he decides to continue the case after his TRO is likely denied. 

What part of the claim do you think the injunction will be denied on?

 

Specific and irreparable harm 

 

or

 

Chance of winning

 

?

Edited by Sizzlebshu

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Likelihood of prevailing on the merits. Maybe both though. One guy's "irreparable harm" is another guy's dollar amount. 

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31 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Likelihood of prevailing on the merits. Maybe both though. One guy's "irreparable harm" is another guy's dollar amount. 

So not sure

 

i think he has a decent chance of ahowing irreparable harm because brady did. Similar if not the same case

 

i agree prevailing on the merits is harder in part because of Brady

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11 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

What do you think happens? You seem to have a good grip on the legal stuff. 

 

Thank you for your confidence, but I'll put a huge disclaimer on anything I say. I haven't read the complaint and do not know many of the facts. I also am not familiar with the relevant case law and have zero familiarity with the fifth circuit (Texas). 

 

That said, considering the broadest strokes, I think the chances Zeke wins in court and gets a TRO are slim. Here's to hoping the NFL reduces its sentence on its own accord. That seems the likelier path to playing time. 

 

Zeke's strongest argument appears to be his lack of access to the key witness (alleged victim). 

 

 

1 hour ago, Sizzlebshu said:

What part of the claim do you think the injunction will be denied on?

 

Specific and irreparable harm or Chance of winning?

 

Irreparable Harm

 

I agree with Kenny Woo that irreparable harm should be pretty easy to show. At the most basic level, the court is asking whether monetary damages would be sufficient to remedy the harm suffered if an injunction were not given. There is also an implicit substantive threshold that probably needs to met - a unique, but minor harm isn't going to cut it. 

 

In some employment situations, a person will be made whole simply by recouping lost wages. In this case, there is a lot more the NFLPA can point to: (1) harm to Zeke's reputation, public persona, and popularity; (2) Financial losses (e.g. endorsements) stemming from loss to reputation; (3) Loss to legacy (career/season statistics, awards, team's playoff odds, etc.); (4) generally point to the fickle and finite nature of a NFL career and the uniqueness of games. 

 

These all seem strong arguments to me and none of them can be easily remedied with damages. Yes, some of them are monetary in nature, but they are too speculative for a court to calculate and award, and thus that kind of harm would functionally be "irreparable." 

 

tl;dr I don't think irreparable harm will be an issue. Do bear in mind that I am not very familiar with case law for "irreparable harm," let alone how a Texas court approaches the issue. 

 

Probability of Success on the Merits

 

This is harder, but it really depends on how a court approaches the prong. To repeat this disclaimer a third time: I don't know the case law and how a Texas court approaches this question. Some judges are sticklers on this requirement, others are more lenient. It's ultimately a balancing test so sometimes if there is a strong showing of irreparable harm, a judge will functionally ask whether there is something like a "chance of winning," rather than if there is a >50% chance. 

 

Assuming this prong is applied literally, I think this will be very difficult for Zeke to show. The Brady decision still looms in the judicial consciousness and the standard of review is incredibly deferential to the NFL. 

 

I am not very familiar with the facts, but to my knowledge Zeke's strongest arguments are:

 

(1) He was not allowed access to the key witness.

(2) The NFL "silenced" its lead investigator and kept Zeke's camp and the arbiter in the dark about here findings.  

 

The second still isn't very compelling to me. An investigator is not guaranteed a seat at the table and the parties being informed about an underling's opinions doesn't seem very material. If Zeke's camp can show that the NFL consciously kept the investigator's report from Goodell, as I believe they allege, then maybe they have an argument. That seems an uphill battle. 

 

There might be a sympathetic judge to the first argument, although I have zero clue about the precedent/case law. Being able to cross-examine your accuser is one of the most fundamental rights in the justice system. Zeke's lack of access to the accuser throughout the process does seem incredibly unfair. That said, this isn't a court room; the NFLPA agreed to this charade and this stupid, unfair scheme will be given deference. 

 

I'd put his chances at less than 20% (helpful, I know). 

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5 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

 

I'd put his chances at less than 20% (helpful, I know). 

Welp.  Well, that's not very encouraging.  It seemed like there was a huge swell of positivity towards the end of last week.  Did we all just get caught up in optimism?  Lots of drafts occurred since then where I'm sure he was drafted as if he was coming back.  Still hoping that there is some positive news coming out tomorrow.

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4 minutes ago, CooL said:

Welp.  Well, that's not very encouraging.  It seemed like there was a huge swell of positivity towards the end of last week.  Did we all just get caught up in optimism?  Lots of drafts occurred since then where I'm sure he was drafted as if he was coming back.  Still hoping that there is some positive news coming out tomorrow.

I don't think everyone got caught up as it was rational reactions to the reports. It's a  bit confusing, and maybe it goes the Brady path, or he is suspended sooner rather than later

who the hell knows!

Edited by jiamm14

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38 minutes ago, jiamm14 said:

I don't think everyone got caught up as it was rational reactions to the reports. It's a  bit confusing, and maybe it goes the Brady path, or he is suspended sooner rather than later

who the hell knows!

 

If any of us was 100pct certain the suspension would get overturned or the appeals process would take a year, we'd be drafting Elliot at the top of the 1st. There is a TON of risk taking Elliot until a final decision is made. But from the evidence we've seen, there is a decent chance Henderson reduces the suspension. While the NFL has the absolute right to give Elliot 6 games that does not mean that Henderson is obligated to stand by a 6 game suspension in every Domestic Violence related suspension. Henderson could look to the Josh Brown 1 game suspension for Domestic Violence and say that the NFL does not have a uniform policy on Domestic Violence and that this situation did not warrant the full 6 game suspension that was handed down. 

NFL suspensions are reduced from time to time and this situation wreaks of one of those times. But again, there is absolutely no guarantee. The appeals process is far more complex and dependent on the Judge hearing the case. You could have the exact same fact pattern before 100 different federal judges and get 50 granting an injunction and 50 denying. That's the nature of the court system. 

If I'm betting, I think Elliot does not serve a full 6 game suspension this season. 

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Zeke will not get out of this suspension, maybe reduced, maybe delayed but he'll sit. I pick 2nd overall but if you don't take him in round 2 I think your foolish. People say "good luck making the playoffs at 0-6'. That's just stupid. It's not like you are taking a zero those weeks. There's plenty of guys you can plug in and I have no idea why McFadden won't do just fine. Just grab a Hunt or worse case Powell and you'll do fine. 

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On 9/2/2017 at 11:16 AM, irvnasty said:

 

They're handling this very well. Establishing that the commissioner can destroy player's careers with little cause puts two things on the table for players to bargain for: Reduction of the commissioner's power and removal of marijuana from the banned substances list.

 

In order to get those things, the players will have to concede a portion of revenues, the definition of included revenues from that portion, continuing to allow the franchise tag (which affects far more negotiations than just the few players who are ever tagged), not getting larger guarantees, playing more regular season games, or not having better retirement benefits.

 

Suspending Brady and Zeke and outraging the players is printing money for the owners post 2021. In what universe is that bad business?

Great post, even if it's a retort to mine. 

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1 hour ago, Dawgpound1985 said:

Just grab a Hunt or worse case Powell and you'll do fine. 

Ya its so easy, just grab a guy like Hunt or Powell with your last pick and you'll do fine!

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At this point I hope his suspension gets reduced to 4 or at least 5 games. Zeke should accept it then and get ready to make a run at the playoffs upon his return. Built my team planning for him to miss 6 games. If it's delayed and he gets suspended midway through the season or during fantasy playoffs that would be the worst case. Eat the suspension now and take me to the ship!

Edited by frog34

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2 hours ago, frog34 said:

At this point I hope his suspension gets reduced to 4 or at least 5 games. Zeke should accept it then and get ready to make a run at the playoffs upon his return. Built my team planning for him to miss 6 games. If it's delayed and he gets suspended midway through the season or during fantasy playoffs that would be the worst case. Eat the suspension now and take me to the ship!

 

I'd rather for him to fight this to the end if he is indeed innocent. I wouldn't give Goodell's regime an easy out here. Drag their a%%es through court like Brady did. 

 

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46 minutes ago, Cdub2k said:

 

I'd rather for him to fight this to the end if he is indeed innocent. I wouldn't give Goodell's regime an easy out here. Drag their a%%es through court like Brady did. 

 

I think the Brady case proved that the player would not win an appeal. The collective bargaining agreement gives Roger ultimate authority in this type of case. They may delay by appealing, but eventually Roger can do what he wants for player disciple. Appealing is probably just a stall to the inevitable....the big question is does the NFL reduce by a game or two just to get it over with. 

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This makes Goodell look like a bigger jerk.  How can you suspend a guy for 6 games without any credible evidence to show his guilt?  In fact, all credible evidence shows he is NOT GUILTY. 

 

Why did the players agree to give that much power, Including the removal of their constitutional rights, to some ego maniac like Goodell?   This whole thing is a farce.  And I'm not even a Cowboys fan....my team is their enemy, the New York football Giants. 

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15 minutes ago, TennisMenace said:

This makes Goodell look like a bigger jerk.  How can you suspend a guy for 6 games without any credible evidence to show his guilt?  In fact, all credible evidence shows he is NOT GUILTY. 

 

Why did the players agree to give that much power, Including the removal of their constitutional rights, to some ego maniac like Goodell?   This whole thing is a farce.  And I'm not even a Cowboys fan....my team is their enemy, the New York football Giants. 

 

Look up "preponderance of evidence" and "proof beyond a reasonable doubt".  When you start talking guilty vs not guilty criminally, there's a lot more to it. There is more than a 51% chance that he beat that girls a** and pulled another girls titty out in public. 

Edited by golden eagles

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8 hours ago, frog34 said:

At this point I hope his suspension gets reduced to 4 or at least 5 games. Zeke should accept it then and get ready to make a run at the playoffs upon his return. Built my team planning for him to miss 6 games. If it's delayed and he gets suspended midway through the season or during fantasy playoffs that would be the worst case. Eat the suspension now and take me to the ship!

4 or at least 5 games?  Huh?  No, we're hoping it gets wiped away completely or put off until next year!  I'm hoping those of us who gambled on him in the last first or early second are going to be the ones laughing at the rest of our leagues.  I think all of us Zeke owners have other options, but unless you play in a 4 team league, those other options don't have the upside of Zeke.  Yes, drafting Zeke meant I knew I'd have to be prepared to start some of these zeroRB options, but of course I'd rather not!

 

Is the news supposed to come down today?  On Labor Day, a holiday?

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4 hours ago, Mattice1 said:

I think the Brady case proved that the player would not win an appeal. The collective bargaining agreement gives Roger ultimate authority in this type of case. They may delay by appealing, but eventually Roger can do what he wants for player disciple. Appealing is probably just a stall to the inevitable....the big question is does the NFL reduce by a game or two just to get it over with. 

The NFL won't reduce the length of the suspension if it is upheld imo. Because they are trying to implement a strict punishment for domestic violence. And this is really the first case where they get to implement the punishment they outlined. The NFL wants to show they aren't going to tolerate domestic violence.

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3 minutes ago, BLINDSIDERS said:

Josh Brown is laughing inside.

Josh Brown essentially got booted out of the league while still being a tier kicker with likely multiple million + dollar seasons on the horizon.  I highly doubt he's laughing at anything.  

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I dunno.  Every time I see these issues it just seems like the NFL ends up getting their way and the player has to take it.  I read legal argument after legal argument for the AP case and, guess what, NFL just kept him out for the entire season.  It did get overturned but not until after he sat a full season.  

 

Players can have a ton of rational reasons why the ruling is unfair but it just end up being whatever the NFL wants.  Brady had to serve a suspension over some underinflated footballs...this is domestic violence.  Do we really think he's gonna get off completely?  Zero chance that happens.  

 

Pretty sure the Zeke can hope for is a reduction, which he will probably get and then take rather than risk sitting out during the playoffs.

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1 minute ago, The Caucasian Sensation said:

If the news comes out today, this thread may explode, which in turn may cause the whole site to crash.

Yes, even more chatter than the Josh Gordon thread.  Which appears to be closed down after the reappearance of Axe Elf.

 

The good news is whichever way the decision comes down, there will be no more second guessing. Anyone looking to possibly get a discount on him better complete those online drafts now!

 

 

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12 hours ago, Ffguy0087 said:

He's playing on Sunday. Point blank period.

 

Thank you for this incredibly insightful and informative post. I'm glad you actually contributed to the discussion as opposed to just wildly speculating and providing no reasoning or rationale for your speculation. 

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