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Marco Estrada 2017 Outlook

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Guys like Marco Estrada with just absolutely HORRIFIC fastballs have zero margin for having command issues.  You going to walk 4 guys with your piped meat, you'll get destroyed at a high rate.  He has to have elite command to have success in this league.  He overachieved the last few years.  This is the regression guys who pipe 90 on a tee face.  

 

The biggest issue is his changeup has been phenomenal the last few years and this year it's being annhilated.  Unless that changes you're looking at a 5 era arm.

Edited by Cmilne23

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6 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Guys like Marco Estrada with just absolutely HORRIFIC fastballs have zero margin for having command issues.  You going to walk 4 guys with your piped meat, you'll get destroyed at a high rate.  He has to have elite command to have success in this league.  He overachieved the last few years.  This is the regression guys who pipe 90 on a tee face.  

 

The biggest issue is his changeup has been phenomenal the last few years and this year it's being annhilated.  Unless that changes you're looking at a 5 era arm.

I don't disagree but..how often do players overachieve for a few years? At some point it becomes the norm right? It's hard to imagine Estrada just being this terrible after some really good years, even if his margin for error is slighter than most.

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10 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

I don't disagree but..how often do players overachieve for a few years? At some point it becomes the norm right? It's hard to imagine Estrada just being this terrible after some really good years, even if his margin for error is slighter than most.

That's a great question.  His perpherials showed severe differences between era and FIP.  But he did it 2 years in a row.  I hate to chalk it all up to being a fluke.  That's disrespectful.  He did have a really nice changeup.  One of best in MLB.  Even without elite velocity if you are commanding 88-90 and dropping in a nasty changeup that can lead to success.  Problem is that margin for error is very thin when you throw a 90 MPH 4 Seam with zero movement.  He really needs to get back to living on edges.  But the changeup has been ineffective all year.  He really needs that back.

Edited by Cmilne23

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11 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

That's a great question.  His perpherials showed severe differences between era and FIP.  But he did it 2 years in a row.  I hate to chalk it all up to being a fluke.  That's disrespectful.  He did have a really nice changeup.  One of best in MLB.  Even without elite velocity if you are commanding 88-90 and dropping in a nasty changeup that can lead to success.  Problem is that margin for error is very thin when you throw a 90 MPH 4 Seam with zero movement.  He really needs to get back to living on edges.  But the changeup has been ineffective all year.  He really needs that back.

 

Yeah he was one of those guys that FIP and xFIP just couldn't accurately gauge because he induced a ton of weak flyball contact. 

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Whatever smoke and mirrors allowed this bum to get by earlier this year and last year shows no signs of returning, and with minus velocity, he has nothing else to fall back on, and no elite upside to justify holding.  Pitcherlist still has him ranked in the 60s but I have to figure today's trash job is going to kick him off the top 100 entirely.  Still 55% owned but he's definitely my next drop if anything interesting shows up on the wire.

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10 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Whatever smoke and mirrors allowed this bum to get by earlier this year and last year shows no signs of returning, and with minus velocity, he has nothing else to fall back on, and no elite upside to justify holding.  Pitcherlist still has him ranked in the 60s but I have to figure today's trash job is going to kick him off the top 100 entirely.  Still 55% owned but he's definitely my next drop if anything interesting shows up on the wire.

 

It wasn't just last year and the start of this year,. He was good the last two full seasons and he even had value in 2012 and 2013. Smoke and mirrors don't last that long, but clearly he's lost whatever he had. 

Edited by Piotr

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Surprisingly good line from Estrada last night vs. the Astros.  Despite what I said earlier in the thread, I ended up holding on to him because the waiver pitching is so bad, even in my 10-teamer.  Estrada gets the Buccos next, so I'm thinking he's at least a good stream for those of you out there where he's available.

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Very nice quality start especially against my Yanks. Hopefully he regained his confidence and control to finish the season strong.

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Do what the Yankees did with Chapman last year...trade him away and then re-sign him in the off-season.

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