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Yonder Alonso 2017 Outlook

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1 hour ago, GriffeySwag said:

The only problem is 1B is incredibly deep this year. The 1B starved teams that missed out on Yonder probably have Smoak, Bour, or Morrison. If not, wouldn't hurt to see what you can get in return. 

 

Very true. I haven't tried to sell high, and it's very doubtful that I will...mostly because I believe the power is real. That said, the league in which I own him uses a CI, and there are some teams with weak players manning their CIs. That doesn't incline me towards trading him, however. 

 

To add to the names you listed...a guy like Josh Bell has emerged (hit his 11th HR today)...Duda is healthy and red hot right now. This breakout has been going since very early in the season, but no one expected Zimmerman to do what he's doing. Marwin Gonzalez is eligible pretty much everywhere, including 1B, and has had a huge breakout this year. 

 

So like you said, it's a saturated 1B market right now. And that's not even mentioning those who took chances on Thames or Shaw...or Holliday's health. 

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6 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

As noted above, between the depth at 1B and people that still don't believe, there is no selling Alonso at this point (high or otherwise) in most leagues. Just going to have to ride this train out.

 

And I will gladly ride it out. B)

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On 5/29/2017 at 3:43 PM, lassetjus said:

I have Alonso ranked above all the other waiver wire type 1st basemen like Bour, Smoak, LoMo, because he has superior contact skills (even though his K has doubled this season) and thus should end up with a higher batting average than those other guys. RBI is such a fickle stat. You can try to chase that but I'd rather have something reliable like batting average. The only thing that might hold him back is his health but the wrist thing was flukey and he is over the knee thing.

Uh, this is just wrong. If we ignore SB for a second (which has a weird correlation with the other standard batting categories), .BAA is easily the highest variance statistic from year-to-year, and obviously from week-to-week if you play in a weekly league. RBIs are significantly more predictable, the only major change in them is affected by a team change, but you can easily adjust for that.

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while Alonso's HR get notice there is something about him that hasn't changed, and that is that he still struggles against LHP with hitting.

vs LHP- .160    .276    .560    .836

vs RHP- .328    .424    .714    1.139

 

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12 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

while Alonso's HR get notice there is something about him that hasn't changed, and that is that he still struggles against LHP with hitting.

vs LHP- .160    .276    .560    .836

vs RHP- .328    .424    .714    1.139

 

You mean relative to the 1.139 he has against righties? I'd be plenty happy with a .836 OPS as my overall line if I was 70% of the everyday starters in the bigs.

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1 minute ago, miasma16 said:

You mean relative to the 1.139 he has against righties? I'd be plenty happy with a .836 OPS as my overall line if I was 70% of the everyday starters in the bigs.

 

.160 AVG and .276 OBP are terrible. he's been able to have a few HR to inflate the SLG/OPS.

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14 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

.160 AVG and .276 OBP are terrible.

And the slugging isn't. You don't just get to throw out inconvenient stats. His slugging against lefties is better than Buxton's OPS. 

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13 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

And the slugging isn't. You don't just get to throw out inconvenient stats. His slugging against lefties is better than Buxton's OPS. 

 

what do you think is more believable and expected to continue. he's lucked into some HR against LHP and now he's good enough to put up with the terrible AVG.

29 PA he has 3 BB, 4 hits, and 3 of those 4 hits have been a HR.

I like his new ability to hit fly balls but hitting against LHP he is still bad and better to platoon.

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11 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

what do you think is more believable and expected to continue. he's lucked into some HR against LHP and now he's good enough to put up with the terrible AVG.

29 PA he has 3 BB, 4 hits, and 3 of those 4 hits have been a HR.

I like his new ability to hit fly balls but hitting against LHP he is still bad and better to platoon.

I don't know why you're arguing against facts. He's been fine against lefties. Platooning him is idiotic, nobody off their bench is going to create more runs. 

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i like the irony of using 29 PA of work to support his point and then saying hitting 3 hrs out of of 4 hits is luck.

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I don't understand why people are getting upset over the poster saying he should platoon.

 

His career OPS against lefties is .657. 

 

He's a must start vs. righties. And vs. lefties if you have another solid bench bat, you can play match-ups and sit Alonso.

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1 minute ago, GriffeySwag said:

I don't understand why people are getting upset over the poster saying he should platoon.

 

His career OPS against lefties is .657. 

 

He's a must start vs. righties. And vs. lefties if you have another solid bench bat, you can play match-ups and sit Alonso.

 

come on now, noone's getting upset here.

He can very well platoon for your fantasy team, but in real life ball, aint oakland got anything that can come close to producing like alonso, against lefty or not.

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2 minutes ago, GriffeySwag said:

I don't understand why people are getting upset over the poster saying he should platoon.

 

His career OPS against lefties is .657. 

 

He's a must start vs. righties. And vs. lefties if you have another solid bench bat, you can play match-ups and sit Alonso.

I thought he was talking about the A's platooning him, which is probably my "mistake".

 

I certainly wouldn't roster an extra player for platooning him when he plays against lefties either, though, especially when he's been hitting well against lefties this season. I'm not one to take 7 games worth of baseball as much of a sample size, but I'm not going to look for reasons to waste a roster spot I could be using on a streaming starter or ratio guy, either. Hypothetically, if I have a guy that's OPSing over .836 rotting on my bench (doubt it, there are 50 of those hitters in the majors), sure, I'll roll him out there over Alonso vs. LHP. But platooning doesn't really make much sense regardless of what said poster meant, however far I may want to stretch my imagination.

 

In case this helps anyone reading, http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=13&season1=2017&ind=0&team=10&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

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17 minutes ago, rlaalsrb said:

 

come on now, noone's getting upset here.

He can very well platoon for your fantasy team, but in real life ball, aint oakland got anything that can come close to producing like alonso, against lefty or not.

 

12 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

I thought he was talking about the A's platooning him, which is probably my "mistake".

 

I certainly wouldn't roster an extra player for platooning him when he plays against lefties either, though, especially when he's been hitting well against lefties this season. I'm not one to take 7 games worth of baseball as much of a sample size, but I'm not going to look for reasons to waste a roster spot I could be using on a streaming starter or ratio guy, either. Hypothetically, if I have a guy that's OPSing over .836 rotting on my bench (doubt it, there are 50 of those hitters in the majors), sure, I'll roll him out there over Alonso vs. LHP. But platooning doesn't really make much sense regardless of what said poster meant, however far I may want to stretch my imagination.

 

In case this helps anyone reading, http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2017&month=13&season1=2017&ind=0&team=10&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d

Oh I'm with you guys, don't think he should be platooned IRL. If you have the bench size platooning's not a bad idea. Works well for me since I carry a bench bat, but it's not for everyone.

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12 hours ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

.160 AVG and .276 OBP are terrible. he's been able to have a few HR to inflate the SLG/OPS.

HRs inflate everyone's SLG. They're supposed to. It's stupid to say that Alonso's HRs are any more "luck" oriented than anyone else's. 

Especially for a guy who plays in Oakland. Maybe if he played for COL or MIL you could deem his HRs "luck". But Oakland? That's just a dumb thing to say. 

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14 hours ago, rlaalsrb said:

 

come on now, noone's getting upset here.

He can very well platoon for your fantasy team, but in real life ball, aint oakland got anything that can come close to producing like alonso, against lefty or not.

 

I'm only talking about fantasy.

there are multiple different options in fantasy that could give you more against their pitcher than what Alonso would likely give you against most LHP he is facing.

 

 

 

14 hours ago, miasma16 said:

I don't know why you're arguing against facts. He's been fine against lefties. Platooning him is idiotic, nobody off their bench is going to create more runs. 

 

2 different numbers .160/.276 would suggest that he has not been fine, he has been the opposite of fine.

his AVG against LHP has been terrible. most of the time against LHP he is going to make an out.

I own Alonso and love the production against RHP, but I have other options to use when he faces LHP.

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

2 different numbers .160/.276 would suggest that he has not been fine, he has been the opposite of fine.

his AVG against LHP has been terrible. most of the time against LHP he is going to make an out.

I own Alonso and love the production against RHP, but I have other options to use when he faces LHP.

 

Alonso has been brutal in his 25 ABs against lefties this season. You are correct. That said, its 25 ABs. Over his 483 career ABs, he's been a .238/.307 hitter which is still not great, but not that outrageous for a L vs. L hitter. It's possible that his adjustments have made him substantially worse against left-handed hitters, but its also possible we're looking at a 25 AB sample size. We'll see over the next few months.

 

I suspect that the A's will use lefty days (not all of them) to give Alonso breaks and work in other righty bats.

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1 minute ago, oswald737 said:

 

Alonso has been brutal in his 25 ABs against lefties this season. You are correct. That said, its 25 ABs. Over his 483 career ABs, he's been a .238/.307 hitter which is still not great, but not that outrageous for a L vs. L hitter. It's possible that his adjustments have made him substantially worse against left-handed hitters, but its also possible we're looking at a 25 AB sample size. We'll see over the next few months.

 

That said, I suspect that the A's will use lefty days (not all of them) to give Alonso breaks and work in other righty bats.

 

.238/.307 is not good.

 

I'm also not talking about the A's. I'm only talking about fantasy. whether it's a standard 12 team league or a deeper 14/16 team league, there are other 1B eligible players from either the bench or used in other positions (with bench player covering there) that could give a fantasy team better production than what Alonso would likely do against that LHP. not all LHP are the same and there may lesser quality LHP that he could have better success against.

 

tonight Alonso faces LHP JA Happ of Toronto. it's a small number of games so I will be starting him today, but maybe if it was a full day of games I have other/better options.

according to http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/dailyhit.pl? Alonso has not faced Happ.

 

 

the reason I originally mentioned this yesterday was because despite his new success hitting HR he still has lesser numbers against LHP, and in fantasy that can be exploited with other players.

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7 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

.238/.307 is not good.

 

I'm also not talking about the A's. I'm only talking about fantasy. whether it's a standard 12 team league or a deeper 14/16 team league, there are other 1B eligible players from either the bench or used in other positions (with bench player covering there) that could give a fantasy team better production than what Alonso would likely do against that LHP. not all LHP are the same and there may lesser quality LHP that he could have better success against.

 

tonight Alonso faces LHP JA Happ of Toronto. it's a small number of games so I will be starting him today, but maybe if it was a full day of games I have other/better options.

according to http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/dailyhit.pl? Alonso has not faced Happ.

 

 

the reason I originally mentioned this yesterday was because despite his new success hitting HR he still has lesser numbers against LHP, and in fantasy that can be exploited with other players.

 

Ok. I get your point. If you are in a daily moves league and have a large enough roster of healthy players to platoon him against tough lefties, then by all means. Same as streaming starters really.

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If you're in a shallow league then maybe. But most people aren't going to have that kind of room and even if they did, there would likely be a better platoon candidate somewhere else on their roster. 

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In my leagues this guy is ranked #60 overall. Before today he only held a 60% ownership rating. He has 16 HRS to go with a .300 average. He should be owned everywhere without question until he takes a nosedive. 

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7 minutes ago, warningtrackpower said:

Why doesn't Alonso bat 3rd in the A's lineup? I know Lowrie is having a good year, but Alonso is clearly their best hitter.

 

I was batting Cleanup earlier in the year, he went into a mini-slump and they bumped him to fifth for some reason. Would be wiser to have Lowrie batting second and Alonso third and Davis cleanup. Have your best hitters hit higher in the lineup.

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Fifth isn't a bad spot for fantasy purposes. It's still heart of the lineup and you're more likely to try to steal with the bottom of the lineup  due up, which tends to more than make up for the lesser production. 

Its just that the As don't believe in stealing, unfortunately. They took themselves too seriously after Moneyball came out. 

They've even held Rajai Davis to 7 SB.

one of these days they'll get out of last place and they'll give all the credit to sabermetrics. Lol

Edited by Fiveohnine

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1 hour ago, Fiveohnine said:

Fifth isn't a bad spot for fantasy purposes. It's still heart of the lineup and you're more likely to try to steal with the bottom of the lineup  due up, which tends to more than make up for the lesser production. 

Its just that the As don't believe in stealing, unfortunately. They took themselves too seriously after Moneyball came out. 

They've even held Rajai Davis to 7 SB.

one of these days they'll get out of last place and they'll give all the credit to sabermetrics. Lol

 

for other teams it might not be a bad spot but for As it's rubbish.

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