Osu1456

Yonder Alonso 2017 Outlook

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, meh2 said:

The changes in his batted ball profile this year compared to his career rates are pretty remarkable. I'm looking forward to the Fangraphs article that is (inevitably) coming this week.

i'm looking forward to his walk off bomb off frod coming in 2 minutes

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, meh2 said:

The changes in his batted ball profile this year compared to his career rates are pretty remarkable. I'm looking forward to the Fangraphs article that is (inevitably) coming this week.

 

No kidding. His batted ball metrics are all IDEAL now for an elite hitter. He is still hitting line drives which supports his BABIP and over 300 batting average and he has increased his flyballs rate at the expense of ground balls. If you look at his statcast data for 2017, average exit velocity, distance and launch angle are all way above average. Everything he talked about that he wanted to change, he is doing. The only downside is increased strikeouts but he has increased his walks to over 10% and the strikeouts are acceptable if he hits for this kind of power.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have been keeping an eye on him since Eno's article and snagged him off the waiver wire tonight. I was really surprised that he was still there as he has been on fire the past week.

 

I'm looking forward to see if he can keep this up. I agree that it's a drag he only qualifies at 1st. But, if he does it will provide flexibility to trade higher profile guys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The past couple Rotoworld blurbs say to "sell high" as he has never shown this kind of power before. Who the heck is writing those and have they been living under rock?  The guy has completely changed his approach and he isn't the first guy to do it. So many have done it now that it isn't as surprising to see an older player perform above their prior career stats. And especially with all the other stats we have at our disposal we can determine whether a guy is for real or not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, meh2 said:

The changes in his batted ball profile this year compared to his career rates are pretty remarkable. I'm looking forward to the Fangraphs article that is (inevitably) coming this week.

Looks like I didn't have to wait long: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yonder-alonso-is-the-new-poster-boy-for-the-fly-ball-revolution/

 

As an owner in 5/6 leagues I'm thrilled with what I'm seeing!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been on this guy since Spring Training but hadn't picked him up until this morning. I can't believe he got to me. I burned my moves by Thursday and was hoping all weekend to get him. I watched his games this weekend and his power is legit. With that high OBP, he could be in my starting lineup all year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this is a case where the trends aren't useful so much in terms of predicting future performance, but rather just to tell you to throw all previous numbers out the window.

He's clearly decided being the second coming of James Line wasn't cutting it and decided to try his hand as a power hitter. So the question is what kind of power hitter he can be.

His K rate is at 22.5%, which, while a significant downturn from last year (as a result of his changed approach), is still pretty manageable for a power guy.

Despite his lofty flyball rate, his pop-up rate is also very manageable. His pull tendency, likewise, is manageable. So with a guy driving the ball, not popping up a ton and not pulling everything, you've got a recipe for a solid BABIP, though he's not fast so he's not likely to post an elite BABIP without plenty of luck.

Between the solid BABIP profile and the modest K rate, we're likely looking at a solid AVG contributor here. But what about the power?

That 25.7% HR/FB will come down, but how much?

He's had one lucky HR this year:

http://m.mlb.com/video/v1264590683/oaktex-alonso-lifts-a-tworun-homer-to-cener/?game_pk=490173

While the ball travelled 407 feet, 11 of those were due to the wind, per hittrackeronline.com, and the ball barely got out to dead center.

The rest have been really driven and would've gotten out of the majority of parks. This is above average pop we're looking at.

 

Kyle Seager is the first name that pops to mind as a comp. Alonso has better BABIP skills than Seager, but his current K rate is worse than you typically see from Seager.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

I think this is a case where the trends aren't useful so much in terms of predicting future performance, but rather just to tell you to throw all previous numbers out the window.

He's clearly decided being the second coming of James Line wasn't cutting it and decided to try his hand as a power hitter. So the question is what kind of power hitter he can be.

His K rate is at 22.5%, which, while a significant downturn from last year (as a result of his changed approach), is still pretty manageable for a power guy.

Despite his lofty flyball rate, his pop-up rate is also very manageable. His pull tendency, likewise, is manageable. So with a guy driving the ball, not popping up a ton and not pulling everything, you've got a recipe for a solid BABIP, though he's not fast so he's not likely to post an elite BABIP without plenty of luck.

Between the solid BABIP profile and the modest K rate, we're likely looking at a solid AVG contributor here. But what about the power?

That 25.7% HR/FB will come down, but how much?

He's had one lucky HR this year:

http://m.mlb.com/video/v1264590683/oaktex-alonso-lifts-a-tworun-homer-to-cener/?game_pk=490173

While the ball travelled 407 feet, 11 of those were due to the wind, per hittrackeronline.com, and the ball barely got out to dead center.

The rest have been really driven and would've gotten out of the majority of parks. This is above average pop we're looking at.

 

Kyle Seager is the first name that pops to mind as a comp. Alonso has better BABIP skills than Seager, but his current K rate is worse than you typically see from Seager.


That was what I noticed as well.  I don't think we can look at his career numbers as a guide at this point with his new swing.  K% is higher, but, everything is different and with a walk rate that is still solid, it's clear that he is controlling the zone.  The flyballs are WAY WAY up 50% from 33% in his career and the grounders are way way down 27.1% to 44.6%.  Those are EXTREME changes for a 30-year old hitter.

 

He's not the same guy. 

 

My hunch would be that the average would suffer with more flyballs, especially in Oakland, but it's tough to tell if so many are leaving the yard.  An extra 20 homers on flyballs will do wonders for the average and don't impact BABIP.

 

Seager is probably a good comp for what to expect.  The question will be if he has more pop than Seager with this swing.  Are we looking at a 25 homer guy, or a 40 homer guy?  Or, does that 25% HR/FB plummet to 10-15% (still way higher than his career mark) and he barely scrapes 20?   It's so tough to tell because the numbers are so extremely different.

 

I'm going to guess that because he plays in Oakland, that 25% is inflated and small sample size.  I still think he is going to be a 20-25 homer guy, even when that drops a little.  I'd be very happy with a .275 average with 25 bombs off the waiver.

 

The time to add him has likely passed after last week.  I added him in a 20-teamer, dropped him, then added him again when nobody claimed him, but that was the week before. I looked at the numbers after I dropped him and I was kicking myself for the drop. In a league that deep he shouldn't have even been on the waiver and I was lucky to get him back.

 

 

Edited by The Czar

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, The Czar said:


That was what I noticed as well.  I don't think we can look at his career numbers as a guide at this point with his new swing.  K% is higher, but, everything is different and with a walk rate that is still solid, it's clear that he is controlling the zone.  The flyballs are WAY WAY up 50% from 33% in his career and the grounders are way way down 27.1% to 44.6%.  Those are EXTREME changes for a 30-year old hitter.

 

He's not the same guy. 

 

My hunch would be that the average would suffer with more flyballs, especially in Oakland, but it's tough to tell if so many are leaving the yard.  An extra 20 homers on flyballs will do wonders for the average and don't impact BABIP.

 

Seager is probably a good comp for what to expect.  The question will be if he has more pop than Seager with this swing.  Are we looking at a 25 homer guy, or a 40 homer guy?  Or, does that 25% HR/FB plummet to 10-15% (still way higher than his career mark) and he barely scrapes 20?   It's so tough to tell because the numbers are so extremely different.

 

I'm going to guess that because he plays in Oakland, that 25% is inflated and small sample size.  I still think he is going to be a 20-25 homer guy, even when that drops a little.  I'd be very happy with a .275 average with 25 bombs off the waiver.

 

The time to add him has likely passed after last week.  I added him in a 20-teamer, dropped him, then added him again when nobody claimed him, but that was the week before. I looked at the numbers after I dropped him and I was kicking myself for the drop. In a league that deep he shouldn't have even been on the waiver and I was lucky to get him back.

 

 

I think he's got a bit more pop than Seager. His current flyball rate is a lot higher than Seager's. A "typical" Seager season (last year was a career best for him, but even that was very similar to the previous three) consists of ~40% flyballs and ~12-13% HR/FB, leading to 26-27 HR. Just eyeballing his HR swings and distances, I think Alonso will have a similar HR/FB but a higher FB%. He's also currently striking out more than Seager typically does, which leads to less contact and fewer chances for HR. I'd handicap Alonso's true-talent HR total at 28-29, so my ROS projection is wherever that prorates to over the time left in the season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

Would a good comparison for Alonso be let's say a Kendrys Morales?

 

It's so tough to say because of the sample size issues of 100 at-bats.  It's a good comp though.

 

If most of the current numbers hold, he might have even more upside than Morales.  He has always walked more and is hitting a much higher % of flyballs and less grounders than Morales.  Morales is currently at 20% HR/FB% this season and 15% for his career.  If Alonso drops from 25% down to 20%, which I think he will, he is still going to hit a TON of homers if he is hitting 50% flyballs.  He will blow by 30 if he can keep a 20% HR/FB%.

 

He is an absolute wildcard right now.  That is why I threw that 40 homer number out there.  The current stats say that 40 is a possibility.  I don't want to predict that, or forecast it, which is why I went more conservative with 25.  The numbers are saying more, but I want to see more than 100 AB.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And number ten is a new career high. Every homer from here on out is a gonna be a new career high.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Shades of the mid career development of Jose Bautista...

Edited by Code of Hammurabi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Remember when people were laughing at Oakland for trading for Yonder? Wonder where they're hiding these days.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, HalfManHalfAmazing said:

its only a homer relax

What about two homers? Does that do the trick? 

Or do you need Paul O'Neil to catch a fly ball in his hat? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wish I believed when I had the chance.. Wow!

Edited by TTRA1N

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.