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Yonder Alonso 2017 Outlook

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11 minutes ago, GrapeJuice said:

I wish he had anything other than 1B. -- Votto & Freeman Owner

Yonder should make good trade bait.

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8 minutes ago, Topgun said:

Yonder should make good trade bait.

 

Not until All-Star break.  Needs more time for people to buy in for a trade target.  

 

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5 hours ago, Redbird said:

If only he were a catcher:wub:

I believe he was originally drafted as a Catcher out of High School (Coral Gables High). I played with him from the age of 7 until we each got to High School. He hit balls further than a 7 year old version of me could imagine. He was a man out there playing vs kids.

 

Somehow, I don't have him and I'm kicking myself. Obviously, I hope his power streak continues for years to come.

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3 hours ago, Topgun said:

Yonder should make good trade bait.

 

I mean the owner of yonder is always going to value him the highest.

If you believe in yonder, prob easier to move the other studs.

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5 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

They went for a ring. It was a good move even if it didn't work out. Flags fly forever. Then they ended up with Semein instead of Russell. A downgrade, but so far in their careers nowhere near as bad as people have felt. The Cespedes deal was fine too. He didn't work out for Boston either. That's a dumb one to criticize. 

The Donaldson deal is what you want to attack. Can't win them all, though depending how Baretto ends up looking it could end up being not nearly as awful as it was at the time. 

Trying to remember back but didn't Oakland's offense suffer without Cespedes? Wasn't he replaced by Sam Fuld or someone comparable? But like I said it almost worked and flags fly forever like you say

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2 hours ago, Low and Away said:

Trying to remember back but didn't Oakland's offense suffer without Cespedes? Wasn't he replaced by Sam Fuld or someone comparable? But like I said it almost worked and flags fly forever like you say

The entire team's offense, including Cespedes, had fallen off a cliff before the trade but it wasn't getting much attention. I'm not really sure why. They're not a 'sexy' team which is part of why Alonso is such good value now. Sure wish Cespedes had been the hitter he is now. 

 

Anyhow, seems we're not that far apart and we've hijacked this thread enough. 

 

I think Yonder is insane value right now and if - huge if obviously - you think he can keep performing he's a great buy high. 'Downgrade' from your current star and upgrade elsewhere. Profit. 

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So since everyone here is so high on him, can someone explain the fact that although his BABIP is virtually the same as last year and his K rate has skyrocketed, his average is 40 points higher (even higher than his BABIP)? I know he's now a HR hitter, but he can't can't keep hitting them at this rate, right? I'm just having trouble seeing his average climb much higher than it was last year.

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18 minutes ago, ArcaneCharge said:

So since everyone here is so high on him, can someone explain the fact that although his BABIP is virtually the same as last year and his K rate has skyrocketed, his average is 40 points higher (even higher than his BABIP)? I know he's now a HR hitter, but he can't can't keep hitting them at this rate, right? I'm just having trouble seeing his average climb much higher than it was last year.

I think I remember them discussing this on sleeper and the bust on fangraphs. 

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10 hours ago, ArcaneCharge said:

So since everyone here is so high on him, can someone explain the fact that although his BABIP is virtually the same as last year and his K rate has skyrocketed, his average is 40 points higher (even higher than his BABIP)? I know he's now a HR hitter, but he can't can't keep hitting them at this rate, right? I'm just having trouble seeing his average climb much higher than it was last year.

 

Average can be higher because HR's are not factored into BABIP equation. HR's are hits. Hits help your batting average.

 

Example:

 

10 balls in play. 3 singles, 0 BB's, 0 K's. That is a .300 average and a .300 BABIP

10 balls in play. 2 singles, 1 HR, 0 BB's, 0 K's. That is a .300 average but only a .222 BABIP.

 

Reason's why his average may be for real:

1. He cut his ground ball % in half. Ground balls are not good for hits.

2. This is a big one. He is hitting the ball harder. Hard hit % is up to 40% from 32% last season. There is a positive correlation between hits/slugging and exit velocity.

3. He is pulling the ball 4% less than last season and hitting more up the middle. An all fields approach can help batting average.

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It had been a couple days, I was starting to worry ;) 

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Very impressed, Kela looked unreal before he got him. Definitely not a fluke 

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40 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

Very impressed, Kela looked unreal before he got him. Definitely not a fluke 

 

Count was 1-2, catcher called for a very high fastball hoping for swing and miss but instead the 97 mph heater was tomahawked over the right centerfield fence. Guess the pitch was not high enough.

Edited by lassetjus

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On 5/10/2017 at 1:19 PM, GrapeJuice said:

I wish he had anything other than 1B. -- Votto & Freeman Owner

 

I feel your pain...Freeman, Reynolds, Zimmerman owner here. 

 

Tried to trade Reynolds and Alonso but no ones biting. Freeman, no one is willing to give a 1st round talent for him...

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1 hour ago, lassetjus said:

 

Count was 1-2, catcher called for a very high fastball hoping for swing and miss but instead the 97 mph heater was tomahawked over the right centerfield fence. Guess the pitch was not high enough.

The fact that he caught up with that 97 mph, neck high fastball was all the evidence I needed. I immediately picked him up after that. This is a patient hitter who has found a home run swing while still getting BBs. Sign me up!

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3 hours ago, lassetjus said:

Ground balls are not good for hits.

Not true at all. Last year was the first year of the decade where the league batting average on flyballs exceeded the league batting average on groundballs

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3 hours ago, urban2014 said:

Very impressed, Kela looked unreal before he got him. Definitely not a fluke 

Not at all a fluke. Has always had a hit tool, he's regained the power he displayed as a rookie when the reds were talking about moving Votto to LF to make room for Alonso. 

 

Seems like "one of those years" for Yonder, .290/30-35/100

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6 hours ago, DFWSooner said:

The fact that he caught up with that 97 mph, neck high fastball was all the evidence I needed. I immediately picked him up after that. This is a patient hitter who has found a home run swing while still getting BBs. Sign me up!

 

Wow, he was still available in your league until last night? Is it a super shallow league? 

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1 hour ago, warningtrackpower said:

 

Wow, he was still available in your league until last night? Is it a super shallow league? 

 

Many experienced managers look to past production and current projections before making a move.  Yonder has been nothing more than a fill-in WW guy until now. It's easy (and understandable) to dismiss his 2017 production to date as a hot streak, given that a true breakout at age 30 is generally unlikely.  That being said,it looks like he's made a significant change in his approach. The stat/analysis minded owners likely scooped him up weeks ago, but not all leagues are like that....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yonder-alonso-has-changed-his-mind/

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9 hours ago, mysonx3 said:

Not true at all. Last year was the first year of the decade where the league batting average on flyballs exceeded the league batting average on groundballs

 

True, but for a guy with his exit velocity, it's better to put it in the air vs on the ground. His flyballs have a better than league average chance to be a hit since they are hit so hard, they can make it past an outfielder to the wall or hit over the wall for a HR.

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