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Joey Gallo 2017 Outlook

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I was a little worried about playing at two relatively pitcher friendly parks might slow him down a bit, but it doesn't matter when you send the ball into the upper layers of the atmosphere. 

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Is it crazy for me to drop Wil Myers for Gallo?  I just don't know if Gallo can continue to hit bombs while striking out.  Similar to what we are seeing from Judge.

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34 minutes ago, esnipes7 said:

Is it crazy for me to drop Wil Myers for Gallo?  I just don't know if Gallo can continue to hit bombs while striking out.  Similar to what we are seeing from Judge.

 

He has been doing this all season long... Obviously not at this rate but he is basically K K K K K HR K K K K K HR if you average it out

Edited by DJSatane

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Seriously on fire.  Upper deck 2 run HR in the first today.  7 in 8 games.  Also brings his AB per HR under 10, which if he were to maintain it hasn't been done since Ryan Howards 58 HR season IIRC.

 

Didn't click post on this before the game, didn't want to spam the thread with my Gallo love:

Had to look up the exact numbers for the run he is on.  In 66 PA since July 19 he's at .295/.348/.820 with 10 HR.

195 wRC+, .296 BABIP, 36.4 K%,  64.7% contact, 77.8% on pitches in the zone.

 

 

Edited by WinterBall

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2 hours ago, IDGAFOS said:

Dropped him on July 22nd and since then he has 10 HR's.  Stings a bit.

Thanks, you were holding him back. I picked him up at around that time. 

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I tried to trade for this guy last year... and earlier this year, several times. The dude that had him dropped him around July 20thish and I scooped him up for free. Fantasy baseball is weird sometimes.

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10 minutes ago, CluelessJoeJackson said:

I tried to trade for this guy last year... and earlier this year, several times. The dude that had him dropped him around July 20thish and I scooped him up for free. Fantasy baseball is weird sometimes.

I dropped him earlier this year and luckily was able to scoop him back up about 5 days ago. He went through a patch where he was really struggle. Hitting like .270 plus ish the past 2 weeks, if he can even just stay above .250 he's beast. 

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16 minutes ago, TTRA1N said:

What round we thinking next year?

 

I think we have to see how he finishes the season out these last 2 months. It seems like he has improved with the contact lately.

 

If he's a .210 50 HR guy at the end of the season that can't be ignored past rd 12 I would think, even with the resurgence of power.

 

It'll also be league specific depending on OBP/AVG leagues.

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10 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

 

I think we have to see how he finishes the season out these last 2 months. It seems like he has improved with the contact lately.

 

If he's a .210 50 HR guy at the end of the season that can't be ignored past rd 12 I would think, even with the resurgence of power.

 

It'll also be league specific depending on OBP/AVG leagues.

 

I think higher than that, even in AVG leagues.

 

.215/100/55/100/10 seems realistic over a full season of at bats next year. I think that is a top 100 player with upside to be a top 50 player if that average can creep up to .230+.

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58 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

I think higher than that, even in AVG leagues.

 

.215/100/55/100/10 seems realistic over a full season of at bats next year. I think that is a top 100 player with upside to be a top 50 player if that average can creep up to .230+.

I think 55 is pushing it for an actual expectation. Is anyone even going to hit 55 this year? Cris Carter numbers generally go undrafted. If Gallo is a better Carter (or a worse Frazier), he'll be drafted, but I wouldn't end up with him in any roto leagues where he'd go. I think a surefire first 12 rounds guy in H2H, as stated above, and that's likely underselling his value.

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1 hour ago, miasma16 said:

I think 55 is pushing it for an actual expectation. Is anyone even going to hit 55 this year? Cris Carter numbers generally go undrafted. If Gallo is a better Carter (or a worse Frazier), he'll be drafted, but I wouldn't end up with him in any roto leagues where he'd go. I think a surefire first 12 rounds guy in H2H, as stated above, and that's likely underselling his value.

Well you can't really expect 55 for anyone outside of a few in the late 90s/early 2000s, but there are a lot of reasons for his counting stats to increase next year if he maintains the same batting line.

 

He's been hitting 7/8/9 all year, and often behind some of the worst OBPs in the league in Odor (.255), Napoli (.282) and Lucroy (.297).  That saps ABs and RBI opportunities.   He was also platooned for ~6 weeks in June/July amidst his worst batting average run (hit ~.170 for a decent stretch in there) and some hamstring issues. He's only got 316 AB right now, well behind most of the other high HR hitters thus why I mentioned he leads the league in AB per HR earlier, a bit under where Ryan Howard was when he hit 58 HR.


Obviously anything could happen, if he has another .170 cold stretch he goes back to being intriguing but hard to play, but if he does stay reasonably hot and gets himself locked into a ~#5 slot (where he hit today) next year without any platoon (he has an .865 OPS vs lefties this year) then just repeating this years batting line would have him up there.  But given how entirely his game is geared toward hitting HRs (the highest FB rate in the league, which is why his expected BABIP is so low) he could hit 55 and still only have mid round value.  Of course, he is only 23 and is currently in his best stretch of making contact in the MLB, so being a fan I'm hoping he does have room to grow the rest of his game.

Edited by WinterBall

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5 hours ago, miasma16 said:

I think 55 is pushing it for an actual expectation. Is anyone even going to hit 55 this year? Cris Carter numbers generally go undrafted. If Gallo is a better Carter (or a worse Frazier), he'll be drafted, but I wouldn't end up with him in any roto leagues where he'd go. I think a surefire first 12 rounds guy in H2H, as stated above, and that's likely underselling his value.

 

I don't think 55 HRs next season would be unrealistic. He is hitting about 1 HR every 10 ABs in his first full season. He has legitimate 80 grade power, plays in a hitters park, and the balls are juiced. I think people underestimate what kind of power Gallo possesses.

 

Cris Carter career high slugging: .499

Todd Frazier career high slugging: .498

Joy Gallo age 23 slugging: .570

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4 hours ago, WinterBall said:

Well you can't really expect 55 for anyone outside of a few in the late 90s/early 2000s, but there are a lot of reasons for his counting stats to increase next year if he maintains the same batting line.

 

He's been hitting 7/8/9 all year, and often behind some of the worst OBPs in the league in Odor (.255), Napoli (.282) and Lucroy (.297).  That saps ABs and RBI opportunities.   He was also platooned for ~6 weeks in June/July amidst his worst batting average run (hit ~.170 for a decent stretch in there) and some hamstring issues. He's only got 316 AB right now, well behind most of the other high HR hitters thus why I mentioned he leads the league in AB per HR earlier, a bit under where Ryan Howard was when he hit 58 HR.


Obviously anything could happen, if he has another .170 cold stretch he goes back to being intriguing but hard to play, but if he does stay reasonably hot and gets himself locked into a ~#5 slot (where he hit today) next year without any platoon (he has an .865 OPS vs lefties this year) then just repeating this years batting line would have him up there.  But given how entirely his game is geared toward hitting HRs (the highest FB rate in the league, which is why his expected BABIP is so low) he could hit 55 and still only have mid round value.  Of course, he is only 23 and is currently in his best stretch of making contact in the MLB, so being a fan I'm hoping he does have room to grow the rest of his game.

 

He has a decent OBP and is a good base runner for his size. If he hit 55 home runs, I'd absolutely expect him to be at 100+ runs and 100+ RBI while chipping in a handful of stolen bases.

Edited by hailtoyourvictor

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3 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

I don't think 55 HRs next season would be unrealistic. He is hitting about 1 HR every 10 ABs in his first full season. He has legitimate 80 grade power, plays in a hitters park, and the balls are juiced. I think people underestimate what kind of power Gallo possesses.

 

Cris Carter career high slugging: .499

Todd Frazier career high slugging: .498

Joy Gallo age 23 slugging: .570

It's realistic. I'm also not drafting players based on optimistic projections. I draft them based on what I expect early, their ceilings late. Gallo won't be a flier, he'll go around 100-140. So his actual projections matter. 

 

"The balls are juiced" for everyone, so I'm not sure why that was even mentioned. Maybe to counteract your slugging comparisons in a season with literally more home runs per game than ever before? 

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Just now, miasma16 said:

It's realistic. I'm also not drafting players based on optimistic projections. I draft them based on what I expect early, their ceilings late. Gallo won't be a flier, he'll go around 100-140. So his actual projections matter. 

 

"The balls are juiced" for everyone, so I'm not sure why that was even mentioned. Maybe to counteract your slugging comparisons in a season with literally more home runs per game than ever before? 

 

The balls are juiced is an part of the reason I think 55 HRs is in play. I think Gallo has as much power as anybody in the league. A few years ago that might mean he was a 40 HR hitter when power numbers were down. Now with power numbers up league wide, I think he has legitimate 50+ HR power as long as he gets a full season of ABs.

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Just now, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

The balls are juiced is an part of the reason I think 55 HRs is in play. I think Gallo has as much power as anybody in the league. A few years ago that might mean he was a 40 HR hitter when power numbers were down. Now with power numbers up league wide, I think he has legitimate 50+ HR power as long as he gets a full season of ABs.

Your league leader in homers is Stanton at 38. He's already played 110 games, so he seems about to due spend the rest of the season on the disabled list. Gallo could hit 60 next year if he gets the barrel on the ball more and/or doesn't hit in the bottom third of the order for a sizable portion of the season, but mathematically it's unlikely. If I draft him next year and get 50 I'll be pleased.

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2 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Your league leader in homers is Stanton at 38. He's already played 110 games, so he seems about to due spend the rest of the season on the disabled list. Gallo could hit 60 next year if he gets the barrel on the ball more and/or doesn't hit in the bottom third of the order for a sizable portion of the season, but mathematically it's unlikely. If I draft him next year and get 50 I'll be pleased.

 

Right, Stanton is on 50+ HR pace. Not sure what your point is. I think Gallo can do that too given a full season of at bats. Gallo's power is on Stanton level.

 

The full season of at bats thing is pretty key.

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Just now, hailtoyourvictor said:

Not sure what your point is.

My point is obviously that I think your projection is high. I don't expect anyone to hit 55 this year, I don't expect anyone to do what nobody has done in over a decade. Not sure what full season of bats is supposed to mean either. He's missed what, 10 games? Your average rostered fantasy player misses about 25 a year.

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1 minute ago, miasma16 said:

My point is obviously that I think your projection is high. I don't expect anyone to hit 55 this year, I don't expect anyone to do what nobody has done in over a decade. Not sure what full season of bats is supposed to mean either. He's missed what, 10 games? Your average rostered fantasy player misses about 25 a year.

 

I'm talking about what realistic numbers would be if he were to get to ~550 ABs. This confuses you how?

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3 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

I'm talking about what realistic numbers would be if he were to get to ~550 ABs. This confuses you how?

giphy.gif

 

Look, chief. I think you're highballing your number and I've already explained the myriad of reasons why. I thought you could just accept that someone would disagree with your projection so I apologize to everyone for this filling an entire page, but I'm just as bored with this discussion as they'll be tomorrow morning.

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