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Eugenio Suarez 2017 Outlook

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Well, he hit 13 hrs in 372 ABs with a .280 average at 23-24 years old (July birthday) in 2015.  Last year at 24-25, his hr number rose to 21 in 565 ABs, so if pro-rating his '15 hr numbers across the season to the same number of ABs in '16 then his power would actually have regressed a bit or closely remained the same.   If you took his month of May out, which had his big slump, then his overall line would have been closer to a .260 average.  His home/road splits were not bad at all, which means it's not the band box in Cincy that speaks to his numbers.

 

Now he's in his 25-26 year old season, I think it will be telling if he's made some adjustments too.   They've moved him up to 5th in the lineup, which should help his counting stats.   When taking 2015 and 2016 into account, for me I see Suarez if he can maintain some consistency as a .270 24-27hr guy, and if they let him run a bit again this year, he may reach double digits again.  You could do worse.

Edited by BigPapi44

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4 hours ago, The Dirtdog said:

Meh.

 

 

We saw this last year.  Show me some consistency and not just a hot streak and then congratulations are in order.

I agree that he's inconsistent at times, but last year he put up the quietest 78 21 70 from a corner infielder in recent memory. Even a tick of improvement in consistency will likely garner an 80 20 80 line with a BA that doesn't hurt you and a handful of steals. A steal for many who picked him up off the wire. 

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Um, so, this guy is pretty good right now. Usually people would be overreacting to the millionth degree after a game like today...

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7 minutes ago, mcbane said:

Um, so, this guy is pretty good right now. Usually people would be overreacting to the millionth degree after a game like today...

 

none of us want to get back on the horse after the way this thread went last year. personally this just kills me, i can't really post about him without immediately veering off into cool story bro territory

 

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Did he have a massive hot streak last year, then slump or something rest of year? I honestly didn't follow him at all and just sort of ended up with him this year by default in an auction.

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2 minutes ago, soxfan94 said:

Did he have a massive hot streak last year, then slump or something rest of year? I honestly didn't follow him at all and just sort of ended up with him this year by default in an auction.

He had an epic 0-50 something streak he went on last year. To me it looks like he's made some adjustments this year though. I didn't own him last year nor did I really follow him so I actually drafted him and got laughed at. 

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1 hour ago, wily mo said:

 

none of us want to get back on the horse after the way this thread went last year. personally this just kills me, i can't really post about him without immediately veering off into cool story bro territory

 

I'm on the horse in all my leagues and feeling pretty good about it tbh. If he cools off I'll drop, the guy was free. Just enjoying the ride.

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I mean he's only 25 years old.  It's not that crazy to believe he's adjusted to MLB pitching, and ready to break out for a full year.

 

Either way, he was probably picked up off the waiver wire in most leagues, so enjoy whatever production you get from him.

Edited by Tayne

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I like his K%.

And he did look good vs Arrieta today. Not the HRs, but his approach, his whole PA looks right. That he hits HRs too is the icing on the cake.

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That he hits HRs too is the icing on the cake.

 

And that he plays at Great American Small Park.

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36 minutes ago, soxfan94 said:

Did he have a massive hot streak last year, then slump or something rest of year? I honestly didn't follow him at all and just sort of ended up with him this year by default in an auction.

 

just the whole thing, man. he started out one of the best hitters in the league the first 2 weeks, then went into this total death spiral, except every 2 weeks like clockwork he'd have one huge game just to keep everyone hooked. then 0 for another 33

 

then in the second half after everyone finally gave up he quietly hit like .280 with 7 home runs. but no one was really paying attention by then

 

if anyone wants to re-live the adventure, here it is

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I expect him to fall off some obviously and didn't have high expectations coming in, so I'm loving him right now lol, but yeah, that thread was actually an hilarious read. Sounds like owning this dude is gonna be an interesting roller coaster.

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8 hours ago, wily mo said:

 

none of us want to get back on the horse after the way this thread went last year. personally this just kills me, i can't really post about him without immediately veering off into cool story bro territory

 

Lol. Man, some strong ptsd here. But he's changed his stance, his approach is pretty impressive, and he plays in GABandbox. He's obviously not this good, but I could see .290 - 25 - 90. Maybe gets close to 30 if he's lucky. 

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He reminds me of Braun, His swing I mean.

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Can we get down to the nitty gritty and discuss what we can realistically expect from him?

 

Looking through his plate discipline numbers, there's a lot to like:

 

O-Swing%        20%

Z-Swing%         66.1%

Swing%            40.5%

O-Contact%    74.2%

Z-Contact%      85.4%

Contact%        82.3%

SwStr%           7.2%

 

BB%               10.3%

K%                 17.6% 

 

The ones I've bolded demonstrate significant improvements over his 2016 numbers, yes small sample size, but I can't help but be really encouraged.

 

The .395 BABIP ensures his .AVG will come down no doubt, but are there any other concerns that we may be witnessing a good season from E. Suarez?

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1 minute ago, azeri98 said:

Lets see what his numbers are at the end of June

 

I just don't understand the pessimism.

 

Either you have him on your roster and hope his production continues or you missed out on him and hope he turns into a pumpkin.

 

Either way, he likely didn't cost any of his owners anything so there's really not much downside.

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2 minutes ago, countingcrow said:

 

I just don't understand the pessimism.

 

Either you have him on your roster and hope his production continues or you missed out on him and hope he turns into a pumpkin.

 

Either way, he likely didn't cost any of his owners anything so there's really not much downside.

I have him on a few teams but he  started like this last year and really cooled off, not pessimism, just cautious

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2 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

I have him on a few teams but he  started like this last year and really cooled off, not pessimism, just cautious

 

I feel the same way. I think his stats at the end of the year are pretty good for a deeper mixed but we may have already seen his best spurt.

 

If he hits 15 more home runs the rest of the way over the next 5 months with a 240 average with like 5-10 steals I wouldn't be surprised and that's not amazing or anything

 

Hopefully he does better and outs together a strong year.  There's value, just not if you're paying the price of the first 3 weeks.

 

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38 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I feel the same way. I think his stats at the end of the year are pretty good for a deeper mixed but we may have already seen his best spurt.

 

If he hits 15 more home runs the rest of the way over the next 5 months with a 240 average with like 5-10 steals I wouldn't be surprised and that's not amazing or anything

 

Hopefully he does better and outs together a strong year.  There's value, just not if you're paying the price of the first 3 weeks.

 

A lot of that regression last year was based on that huuuuuuge slump. No one should be expecting him to keep anything like what he's currently doing up for the entire season, but as the fangraphs article pointed out he's getting better results using different tactics. That's a progression. 

 

The odds of him having another 1-50 slump is roughly the same as him hitting .400 the rest of the year. I think what we'll most likely see is a .290ish/20+/90 type guy. Not world beating, but useful. If somehow the strides he's made, especially to discipline and contact, are legitamite and lasting that bumps that up to semi-allstar levels. Worth it to see if that happens. 

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Since his 2 HR game back on 4/22

.224/.306/.329 (.635)

Michaelscottfacepalm1.gif

 

       

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